scholarly journals Role of Climatic Conditions on the Incidence of Varicella in an Out-patient Clinic of a Tertiary Care Pediatric Hospital at Dhaka

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 11-17
Author(s):  
Mahfuza Hussain ◽  
Md Nurul Amin ◽  
Md Rafiqul Islam
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Seasonal Pattern ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Spring Season ◽  
Total Rainfall ◽  
Chicken Pox ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Monthly Average ◽  
Monthly Average Temperature ◽  
Two Peaks

Background & objective : Chicken pox or varicella is a disease of both tropical and temperate zones bearing a complex-relationship with climatic variables, like temperature, rainfall and relative humidity, wind velocity and so on. As no study has, by far, been conducted to relate its occurrence with these climatic variables in Bangladesh, this study was intended to explore the effect of weather conditions on the incidence of varicella in Dhaka city of Bangladesh. Methods: The present cross-sectional study obtained data of 172 varicella cases from the records of the daily register of Out-patient Department of Dhaka Shisu Hospital, Dhaka between January 2018 to December 2019. According to the study protocol a child was diagnosed as having varicella or chicken pox who had a history of short febrile illness accompanied by a pruritic vesicular eruption (on the face and trunk)) of the skin and mucous membranes which ultimate weeps out and crusts. Total number of cases treated monthly at Out-patient Department (OPD) during the period was also recorded. Climatic data were provided by Bangladesh Meteorological Department, which among others, included monthly average temperature, relative humidity (RH) and amount of rainfall or precipitation. While the outcome variable was monthly number of varicella cases, the predictive variables were average temperature, humidity and rainfall during the study period. Result: Over 70% of children were 1-10 years old with median age of the children being 5.5 years (range: < 1 month -14 years). Boys were a bit higher (54%) than the girls (46%). A seasonal pattern of chicken pox was seen with clustering of cases between mid-February to mid-April (spring season) with two peaks – one in February and another in April, when monthly average temperature, total rainfall and humidity all were at their optimum. The peak incidences of chicken pox cases during the spring both in 2018 and 2019 as correlated with climatic data of the same period, it is seen that the prevailing weather then was optimum-average temperature was 23°C, average precipitation was 20-25% of the total annual precipitation and relative humidity was around 65%. Conclusion: The study concluded that majority of the varicella cases occur under ten years of age and boys are a little more susceptible to have the infection than the girls. A seasonal pattern of chicken pox is clearly seen with clustering of cases between mid-February to mid-April (spring season) with two peaks when monthly average temperature, total rainfall and humidity all are optimally favorable for the multiplication of varicella zoster virus. Ibrahim Card Med J 2020; 10 (1&2): 11-17

scholarly journals Seasonal Pattern of Hand Foot and Mouth Disease in an Out-patient Clinic of a Tertiary Care Pediatric Hospital, Dhaka

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 453-457
Author(s):  
Mahfuza Hussain ◽  
Md Nurul Amin ◽  
Md Rafiqul Islam
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Skin Rash ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Febrile Illness ◽  
Total Rainfall ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Monthly Average ◽  
Monthly Average Temperature ◽  
History Of ◽  
Typical Skin

Background : Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a contagious disease of children, occurs primarily under five years of age, characterized by a history of brief febrile illness and a typical skin rash over hands and feet with or without sores in mouth, caused usually by Coxsackie virus[1]A16 viruses. It is mainly the disease of tropical and subtropical countries and bears a complex-relation with meteorological variables like temperature, rainfall and relative humidity, although no study has yet been done in Bangladesh to explain the complex relationship of the disease with these variables. Objective : This study sought to describe the occurrence of HFMD and its association with meteorological factors in Dhaka city. Methods : The present cross-sectional study collected data of 231 HFMD cases from the records of the daily register of Out-patient Department of Dhaka Shishu Hospital, Dhaka between January 2018 to December 2019. According to the study protocol a child was identified as having HFMD who had a history of brief febrile illness accompanied by a typical skin rash with or without mouth ulcers. Total numbers of cases treated monthly at OPD during the period were also recorded. Meteorological data were provided by Bangladesh Meteorological Department, which among others, included monthly average temperature, relative humidity and amount of rainfall. While the outcome variable was monthly number of HFMD cases, the predictive variables were average temperature, humidity and rainfall during the study period. Results : Majority (85.3%) children in the present study was < 5 years old. A male preponderance was observed in the series (60%) with male to female ratio being 3:2. A clustering of HFMD cases was observed to occur between June to October when monthly average temperature, total rainfall and humidity all were at their maximum compared to those found between November to April. The clustering of cases was more intense in the year 2019 than that in the year 2018. During the period average monthly temperature was 29.20C, average rainfall was 62.6% (238 mm) of the total annual precipitation and mean relative humidity was 79%. The proportion of HFMD cases out of total cases treated during the period was 2.2% in 2018 and was 4.1% in 2019, which in the dry season (November to April) was 0.4% and 0.5% in 2018 and 2019 respectively. Conclusions : The study concluded that majority of the HFMD cases occur under five years of age and boys are more likely to have the infection than the girls. A seasonality of HFMD occurrence is observed with a higher number of cases occurring in the monsoon season and fewer cases in the dry season.Clustering of HFMD cases occur between May to October when monthly average temperature, total rainfall and humidity all are at peak compared to those in November to April of the year. Northern International Medical College Journal Vol.11 (2) Jan 2020: 453-457

scholarly journals Monthly Average Temperature Modeling in an Intertropical Region

2013 ◽  
Vol 28 (5) ◽  
pp. 1099-1115 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mercedes Andrade-Bejarano
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Seasonal Pattern ◽  
Geographical Location ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Monthly Average ◽  
Monthly Average Temperature ◽  
Valle Del Cauca

Abstract Data for this research come from time series of monthly average temperatures from 28 sites over the Valle del Cauca of Colombia in South America, collected over the period 1971–2002. Because of the geographical location of the study area, monthly average temperature is affected by altitude and El Niño–La Niña (El Niño–Southern Oscillation, or ENSO phenomenon). Time series for some of the sites show a tendency to increase. Also, because of the two dry and wet periods in the study area, a seasonal pattern of behavior in monthly average temperature is seen. Linear mixed models are formulated and fitted to account for within- and between-site variations. The ENSO phenomenon is modeled by the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) and dummy variables. Spatial and temporal covariance structures in the errors are modeled individually using isotropic variogram models. The fitted models demonstrate the influence of the ENSO phenomenon on monthly average temperatures; this is seen in the maps produced from the models for ENSO and normal conditions. These maps show the predicted spatial patterns for differences in temperature throughout the study area.

scholarly journals ANALYTICAL MATHEMATICAL MODELS OF THE POPULATION OF ARTHROPODS IN THE NON-BLACK EARTH ZONE

2021 ◽  
pp. 128-132
Author(s):  
Vasilevich ◽  
Nikanorova
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Atmospheric Pressure ◽  
Control Area ◽  
Ixodid Ticks ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Monthly Average ◽  
Monthly Average Temperature ◽  
Blood Sucking ◽  
Average Precipitation

The article provides an example of mathematical analytical modeling of the population size of blood-sucking arthropods on the example of mosquitoes and ixodid ticks that inhabit the Kaluga Region. The presented analytical mathematical models make it possible to clearly assess the influence of environmental factors on parasite populations. The following factors were taken into account: average temperature (monthly and yearly, t, oС); average precipitation (monthly and yearly, S, mm); mean atmospheric pressure (P, mm Hg) for mosquitoes, and monthly average temperature (t, o С), monthly mean relative humidity (Q, %), and mean atmospheric pressure (P, mm Hg) for ixodid ticks. The analysis of the obtained models shows that under weather conditions when monthly mean values of the considered factors are at a zero level, the estimated number of ixodid ticks and mosquitoes will be 1150 and 1529 individuals in the control area per year. The population of ixodid ticks is most significantly influenced by the mean atmospheric pressure; its influence is twice as strong as monthly mean humidity and 6.4 times stronger than the influence of monthly average temperature. The "+" sign indicates that the higher the atmospheric pressure is, the more active ticks are observed. Monthly average precipitation has the greatest effect on the mosquito population.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Distribution of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Guangdong Province, China and Potential Predictors, 2009–2012

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (7) ◽  
pp. 1191 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yijing Wang ◽  
Yingsi Lai ◽  
Zhicheng Du ◽  
Wangjian Zhang ◽  
Chenyang Feng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Relative Risk ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Disease Control ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Guangdong Province ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Monthly Average ◽  
Average Rainfall ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
Average Relative Humidity

Background: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common infectious disease among children. Guangdong Province is one of the most severely affected provinces in south China. This study aims to identify the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and potential predictors of HFMD in Guangdong Province and provide a theoretical basis for the disease control and prevention. Methods: Case-based HFMD surveillance data from 2009 to 2012 was obtained from the China Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC). The Bayesian spatiotemporal model was used to evaluate the spatiotemporal variations of HFMD and identify the potential association with meteorological and socioeconomic factors. Results: Spatially, areas with higher relative risk (RR) of HFMD tended to be clustered around the Pearl River Delta region (the mid-east of the province). Temporally, we observed that the risk of HFMD peaked from April to July and October to December each year and detected an upward trend between 2009 and 2012. There was positive nonlinear enhancement between spatial and temporal effects, and the distribution of relative risk in space was not fixed, which had an irregular fluctuating trend in each month. The risk of HFMD was significantly associated with monthly average relative humidity (RR: 1.015, 95% CI: 1.006–1.024), monthly average temperature (RR: 1.045, 95% CI: 1.021–1.069), and monthly average rainfall (RR: 1.004, 95% CI: 1.001–1.008), but not significantly associated with average GDP. Conclusions: The risk of HFMD in Guangdong showed significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity. There was spatiotemporal interaction in the relative risk of HFMD. Adding a spatiotemporal interaction term could well explain the change of spatial effect with time, thus increasing the goodness of fit of the model. Meteorological factors, such as monthly average relative humidity, monthly average temperature, and monthly average rainfall, might be the driving factors of HFMD.

Relationship between meteorological conditions and respiratory syncytial virus in a tropical country

2015 ◽  
Vol 143 (12) ◽  
pp. 2679-2686 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. E. RODRIGUEZ-MARTINEZ ◽  
M. P. SOSSA-BRICEÑO ◽  
R. ACUÑA-CORDERO
Keyword(s):  
Respiratory Syncytial Virus ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Meteorological Conditions ◽  
Acute Lower Respiratory Infection ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Monthly Average ◽  
Syncytial Virus

SUMMARYThis study aimed to determine which meteorological conditions are associated with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) isolates in a population of children hospitalized with acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) in Bogota, Colombia. In an analytical cross-sectional study, links were examined between the number of monthly RSV infections and monthly average climatic variation (temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, wind speed, solar radiation) between 1 January 2010 and 30 April 2011 in a population of hospitalized children aged <3 years with ALRI caused by RSV. Out of a total of 1548 children included in the study (mean age 9·2 ± 8·5 months), 1194 (77·1%) presented RSV infection during the 3-month period from March to May. In the multivariate analysis, after controlling for wind speed, relative humidity, and solar radiation, monthly average temperature [incident rate ratio (IRR) 3·14, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·56–6·30,P= 0·001] and rainfall (IRR 1·008, 95% CI 1·00–1·01,P= 0·048) were independently associated with the monthly number of RSV infections. In conclusion, in Bogota, a tropical Latin American city, average temperature and rainfall are the meteorological variables most strongly associated with RSV isolation in children hospitalized with ALRI in the city.

Climatic zoning for the building thermal design in China's rural areas

2021 ◽  
pp. 014362442110081
Author(s):  
Yao Chen ◽  
Zhiwei Wang ◽  
Peng Wei
Keyword(s):  
Energy Efficiency ◽  
Thermal Insulation ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Building Envelope ◽  
Thermal Design ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Monthly Average ◽  
Monthly Average Temperature ◽  
Degree Day ◽  
Climatic Zoning

Building climatic zoning is a prerequisite for implementing building energy efficiency technology, which can help code makers and architects have an accurate understanding of the local climatic conditions. It takes the extreme monthly average temperature as the zoning index in the existing climatic zoning of rural areas in China. There will be unreasonable design phenomena of insufficient or excessive thermal insulation for a building envelope in rural areas. Aiming at the above problems, this paper modifies the current zoning. This research established the cooling and heating degree-day indexes HDD14 and CDD30 based on the thermal comfort characteristics of rural occupants and used the threshold method to subdivide rural areas into eight sub-zones. The results show that the problem of insufficient or excessive thermal insulation in rural areas can be effectively solved by replacing the extreme monthly average temperature index with the degree day index and the annual cumulative building load can be reduced by 6.4% on average without increasing the insulation cost. After more detailed zoning, the variance within the group is reduced and it accurately describes climate diversity, which is conducive to implementing climate-responsive energy-saving design in each subzone. Practical application: The major purpose of this paper is to solve the problem of unreasonable climate zone boundaries specified in the existing Design Standard for Energy Efficiency of Rural Residential Buildings. The existing zoning has led to conflicts between the actual heating demand and the building envelope thermal parameter limits specified in the standard. This work redefines the boundaries of the existing map using more up-to-date weather data to provide the right guidance for architectural designers.

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