scholarly journals Portfolio Balance Approach to Asymmetries, Structural Breaks and Financial Crisis: Testing a Model for Nigeria

2020 ◽  
pp. 87-110
Author(s):  
Oluwasegun B. Adekoya
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Portfolio Balance ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
The Impact

This study tests the Portfolio Balance Theory (PBT) for Nigeria for the period starting from September 1997 to September 2018. It extends the hypothesized linear inverse relationship between exchange rate and stock price to include asymmetries and structural breaks. It further examines the impact of the 2008 global financial crisis on the PBT to determine its stability after the crisis. The full sample results show that the PBT holds for Nigeria and asymmetries and structural breaks matter in the nexus between stock price and exchange rate. However, the impact of stock price on exchange rate diminished in the long-run with the advent of the 2008 global financial crisis, thus eroding the relative consistency of the PBT after the crisis. The sensitivity of the Nigerian exchange rate to stock price changes calls for the strengthening of the stock market performance through relevant policies including the enhancement of portfolio diversification and risk-hedging assets. The role of asymmetries should not also be jettisoned in predicting exchange rate with stock prices to obtain accurate forecast results.

Evaluating Microeconomic Factors, Financial Crisis, and Stock Price Dynamics

2020 ◽  
pp. 131-153
Author(s):  
Husam-Aldin N. Al-Malkawi ◽  
Rekha Pillai ◽  
Mohammad S. AlShiab
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Mena Region ◽  
Return On Equity ◽  
Mena Countries ◽  
Price Earnings Ratio ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this chapter is to examine the impact of microeconomic factors and the global financial crisis (GFC) on stock prices in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The study employs panel data techniques covering a sample of 277 firms listed in seven MENA countries for the period 2000-2015. The empirical model consists of eight microeconomic (firm-specific) variables and a dummy variable to capture the impact of global financial crisis. The results suggest that microeconomic factors play a vital role in determining stock prices in the MENA region. More specifically, factors such as return on equity, book value per share, dividend per share, earnings per share, and price-earnings ratio positively influence stock prices, while dividend yield and gearing have negative impact on stock prices. In addition, firm size posits a positive and statistically significant relationship with stock prices. However, the GFC seems to be insignificant determinant of stock prices in the case of MENA countries in the sample studied. This chapter provides several practical implications.

scholarly journals Optimal feedback control of stock prices under credit risk dynamics

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinghai Shao ◽  
Sovan Mitra ◽  
Andreas Karathanasopoulos
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Optimal Feedback Control ◽  
Dynamic Programming Principle ◽  
Price Model ◽  
Managerial Control ◽  
Optimal Feedback ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIn this paper we provide a stock price model that explicitly incorporates credit risk, under a stochastic optimal control system. The stock price model also incorporates the managerial control of credit risk through a control policy in the stochastic system. We provide explicit conditions on the existence of optimal feedback controls for the stock price model with credit risk. We prove the continuity of the value function, and then prove the dynamic programming principle for our system. Finally, we prove the Viscosity Solution of the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation. This paper is particularly relevant to industry, as the impact of credit risk upon stock prices has been prominent since the commencement of the Global Financial Crisis.

Measuring the Impact of Financial Crisis

2016 ◽  
pp. 274-283
Author(s):  
İsmail Yıldırım
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Stress ◽  
Stress Index ◽  
Destructive Effect ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Financial Stress Index ◽  
The Impact

Crisis in 2001 and global financial crisis in 2008 effect Turk economy in a lot of ways. Financial crisis creates destructive effect especially on increasing market economies. It is not so easy to watch occurring of this financial crisis and determining of its expanding. First of all determining of crisis terms are needed to predict of financial crisis. In this part, a financial stress index is composed by using TL interest rate and monthly data of global gross reserves belongs to $/TL exchange rate between 1997:01-2014:12 terms for Turkey. Months when financial stress index raised to top level for Turkey and financial crisis are observed on, are found as February(2001) and November (2008).

scholarly journals Causal Relation Between Stock Market Performance and Firm Investment in China: Mediating Role of Information Asymmetry

SAGE Open ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 215824401988514
Author(s):  
Ghulam Hussain Khan Zaigham ◽  
Xiangning Wang ◽  
Haji Suleman Ali
Keyword(s):  
Information Asymmetry ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Causal Relation ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Manufacturing Firms ◽  
Price Performance ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
The Impact

The main objectives of this study are to examine the impact of stock price performance on firm’s investment and to investigate the counter impact of changes in investment expenditures on stock price performance. The random effects model was applied on the panel data of Chinese manufacturing firms listed at the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange during the period 2002 to 2016. The sample contains 398 firms with 5,970 observations. Although there is a statistically significant and negative relationship between stock price and investment expenditures, the impact of stock price on investment expenditures is far greater than that of investment expenditures on stock price. Information asymmetry positively mediates both investment sensitivity to stock prices and stock prices sensitivity to investment. This study is a valuable contribution toward the analysis of investment decision making by manufacturing firms in China. It also provides guidelines for investors to assess the informational status of the capital market before making investment decisions and to comprehensively understand the different decisions made by firms with regard to the issue of new stocks and the indirect information attached with such issues.

ASYMMETRIC IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE CHANGES ON THE TRADE BALANCE: DOES GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS MATTER?

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (04) ◽  
pp. 1850015 ◽  
Author(s):  
BISHARAT HUSSAIN CHANG ◽  
SURESH KUMAR OAD RAJPUT ◽  
NIAZ HUSSAIN GHUMRO
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Sample Period ◽  
Asymmetric Effect ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Recent studies have been mainly focusing on whether exchange rate changes have a symmetric or asymmetric effect on the trade balance. We revisit this question in the context of US and further extend previous studies by determining whether the relationship between these underlying variables change as a result of the global financial crisis. We use both linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and non-linear ARDL models for the whole sample period as well as in the pre- and post-crisis periods. Findings suggest that exchange rate changes have an asymmetric effect on the trade balance; however, the asymmetric behavior of the underlying variables change as a result of the financial crisis. In the short run, exchange rate asymmetrically affects trade balance in the post-crisis period only. In the long run, there is an asymmetric effect for all sample periods, where only the devaluation of currency significantly affects the trade balance when the whole sample period is selected. On the other hand, in pre- and post-crisis periods, only appreciation of currency significantly affects the trade balance. This study indicates that determining the asymmetric relationship without considering the global financial crisis may lead to spurious results.

Terrorism and Stock Market Linkages: An Empirical Study from a Front-line State

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 365-378 ◽  
Author(s):  
Imtiaz Arif ◽  
Tahir Suleman
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Front Line ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Factor Index ◽  
The Impact

This article investigates the impact of prolonged terrorist activities on stock prices of different sectors listed in the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) by using the newly developed terrorism impact factor index with lingering effect (TIFL) and monthly time series data from 2002 (January) to 2011 (December). Johansen and Juselius (JJ) cointegration revealed a long-run relationship between terrorism and stock price. Normalized cointegration vectors are used to test the effect of terrorism on stock price. Results demonstrate a significantly mixed positive and negative impact of prolonged terrorism on stock prices of different sectors and show that the market has not become insensitive to the prolonged terrorist attacks.

scholarly journals Does Stock Market Performance Affect Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence from Saudi Arabia

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moayad H. Al Rasasi ◽  
Soleman O. Alsabban ◽  
Omar A. Alarfaj
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Steady State Condition ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
The Impact

This research paper investigates the impact of stock prices on real economic activity in the Saudi Arabian economy. We utilize various econometric techniques – Johansen and Juselius’s (1990) cointegration tests and Granger’s (1969) causality test – to assess such a relationship, based on quarterly observations spanning the period from the first quarter of 2010 to the fourth quarter of 2018. Our empirical evidence indicates the presence of a significant cointegrating relationship between the two variables being examined; in other words, stock prices have a significant impact on real economic growth. Specifically, the estimated long-run relationship reveals that a 1 percent increase in stock prices would boost economic growth by 0.32 percent. In addition, the error correction model suggests that when the economy deviates from its steady state condition, it needs about a year and a half to return to its equilibrium condition. Lastly, this paper applies the most common Granger causality test, which confirms the essential role of stock prices in predicting changes in economic growth.

scholarly journals The Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Prices: An Empirical Analysis of Islamabad Stock Exchange

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 73-93
Author(s):  
Nosheen Rasool ◽  
Muhammad Mubashir Hussain
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this study was to analyze long-run causal relationship between ISE (Islamabad Stock Exchange) and macroeconomic variables in Pakistan and also find out the direction of causality. The impact of macroeconomic variables on stock prices of ISE has not been previously discussed by the researchers. The monthly data from January 2001 to December 2010 was used in this study. The set of macroeconomic variables include Exchange Rate (ER), Foreign Exchange Reserves (FER), Industrial Production Index (IPI), Interest Rate (IR), Imports (M), Money Supply (MS), Wholesale Price Index (WPI) and Exports (X). Descriptive statistics and Unit root test, Johansen Co-integration Technique and Granger Causality Technique were employed to analyze the long-run and causal relationship between the macroeconomic variables and stock prices.  The results revealed that M showed positive and significant relationship but Foreign Exchange Reserves (FER) and Industrial Production Index (IPI) indicated positive and insignificant relationship with the stock prices. Exchange rate(ER), Money supply (MS) and  Whole sale price index(WPI) showed negative but significant relationship while Interest  rate (IR) and Export( X )indicated a negative and insignificant relationship with the stock prices. The findings of Granger Causality revealed that only exports showed a unidirectional causal relationship. 

scholarly journals Structural Breaks and Volatility Spillover in South Asian Economies

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 64-77
Author(s):  
Hafiz Rauf Iqbal ◽  
Syed Kashif Saeed ◽  
Syed Zulfiqar Ali Shah
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Capital Markets ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Specific Reference ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
The Impact

Purpose - This study examines the volatility spillovers in the presence of structural breaks with specific reference to South Asian Capital markets. The global financial crisis of 2007-2009 has compelled policymakers to realize that financial instability has the potential to threaten economic stability and growth; therefore, managing the financial crisis is inevitable. To manage the impact of financial crises, understanding the dynamics of volatility spillover across various markets is imperative. This study has investigated the possible emergence of structural breaks in risk patterns after global financial crises in south Asian markets. Methodology - Using the data from July 2002 to June 2016, employing the Exponential GARCH methodology. Findings - This study finds a significant volatility spillover after the financial crisis of 2007-09. Therefore, the existence of a structural break in the risk pattern of south Asian capital markets cannot be fully rejected. Policy Implications - This conclusion is of prime importance to policymakers in devising policy guidelines concerning financial crises.

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