scholarly journals Measuring the Effects of Firm Uncertainty on Economic Activity: New Evidence from One Million Documents

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyle Handley ◽  
J. Frank Li
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
New Evidence

Macroeconomic Factors in Oil Futures Markets

2019 ◽  
Vol 65 (9) ◽  
pp. 4407-4421 ◽  
Author(s):  
Davidson Heath
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Futures Markets ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Productivity Shocks ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Oil Futures ◽  
Risk Premiums ◽  
Crude Oil Futures ◽  
Future Consumption ◽  
New Evidence

This paper documents new evidence against perfect risk spanning in crude oil futures, and develops an affine futures pricing model that allows for unspanned macroeconomic factors. Compared to previous estimates, the oil spot premium is more volatile and strongly procyclical, which suggests that previous models miss the majority of variation in oil risk premiums. The estimates reveal a dynamic two-way relationship between oil futures and economic activity: productivity shocks are associated with higher oil prices, while oil price shocks affect economic activity by lowering future consumption spending. Unspanned macro factors also affect the valuation of real options. This paper was accepted by Karl Diether, finance.

scholarly journals Are Banks Really Special? New Evidence from the FDIC-Induced Failure of Healthy Banks

2005 ◽  
Vol 95 (5) ◽  
pp. 1712-1730 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam B Ashcraft
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Bank Failures ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
New Evidence

Recent bank failures are followed by significant and permanent negative declines in real county income. These declines are larger for small failures than for large failures per dollar of assets, are larger for bank failures than thrift failures, and are larger for bank closures than assisted mergers. More interestingly, the failure of even healthy banks has significant and permanent negative effects on economic activity.

scholarly journals Economic Activity and Credit Market Linkages: New Evidence From Italy

2017 ◽  
Vol 46 (3) ◽  
pp. 491-526
Author(s):  
Vincenzo Chiorazzo ◽  
Vincenzo D'Apice ◽  
Pierluigi Morelli ◽  
Giovanni Walter Puopolo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Credit Market ◽  
Market Linkages ◽  
New Evidence

scholarly journals The changing geography of social mobility in the United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (48) ◽  
pp. 30309-30317
Author(s):  
Dylan Shane Connor ◽  
Michael Storper
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Social Mobility ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Racial Inequality ◽  
The United States ◽  
Deep Roots ◽  
Geography Of Opportunity ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
New Evidence

New evidence shows that intergenerational social mobility—the rate at which children born into poverty climb the income ladder—varies considerably across the United States. Is this current geography of opportunity something new or does it reflect a continuation of long-term trends? We answer this question by constructing data on the levels and determinants of social mobility across American regions over the 20th century. We find that the changing geography of opportunity-generating economic activity restructures the landscape of intergenerational mobility, but factors associated with specific regional structures of interpersonal and racial inequality that have “deep roots” generate persistence. This is evident in the sharp decline in social mobility in the Midwest as economic activity has shifted away from it and the consistently low levels of opportunity in the South even as economic activity has shifted toward it. We conclude that the long-term geography of social mobility can be understood through the deep roots and changing economic fortunes of places.

scholarly journals A Growth-Augmented Phillips Curve

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Kristen N. Tauber ◽  
Willem Van Zandweghe
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Inflation Dynamics ◽  
New Evidence

Empirical studies find that the link between inflation and economic slack has weakened in recent decades, a development that could hamper monetary policymakers as they aim to achieve their inflation objective. We show that while the role of economic slack has diminished, economic growth has become a significant driver of inflation dynamics, indicating that the link between inflation and economic activity remains but the relevant gauge of activity has changed. The new evidence suggests that the ongoing COVID-19-related recession could induce substantial disinflationary pressure.

Systematic effects in observed parallaxes

1978 ◽  
Vol 48 ◽  
pp. 31-35
Author(s):  
R. B. Hanson
Keyword(s):  
Error Estimates ◽  
Zero Point ◽  
Absolute Zero ◽  
Apparent Magnitude ◽  
Coherent System ◽  
Preliminary Results ◽  
General Catalogue ◽  
Systematic Effects ◽  
New Evidence ◽  
Right Ascension

Several outstanding problems affecting the existing parallaxes should be resolved to form a coherent system for the new General Catalogue proposed by van Altena, as well as to improve luminosity calibrations and other parallax applications. Lutz has reviewed several of these problems, such as: (A) systematic differences between observatories, (B) external error estimates, (C) the absolute zero point, and (D) systematic observational effects (in right ascension, declination, apparent magnitude, etc.). Here we explore the use of cluster and spectroscopic parallaxes, and the distributions of observed parallaxes, to bring new evidence to bear on these classic problems. Several preliminary results have been obtained.

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