The Extended-Range Tornado Activity Forecast (ERTAF) Project

Large-scale weather patterns favorable for tornado occurrence have been understood for many decades. Yet prediction of tornadoes, especially at extended lead periods of more than a few days, remains an arduous task, partly due to the space and time scales involved. Recent research has shown that tropical convection, sea surface temperatures, and the Earth-relative atmospheric angular momentum can induce jet stream configurations that may increase or decrease the probability of tornado frequency across the United States. Applying this recent theoretical work in practice, on 1 March 2015, the authors began the Extended-Range Tornado Activity Forecast (ERTAF) project, with the following goals: 1) to have a map room–style discussion of the anticipated atmospheric state in the 2–3-week lead window; 2) to predict categorical level of tornado activity in that lead window; and 3) to learn from the forecasts through experience by identifying strengths and weaknesses in the methods, as well as identifying any potential scientific knowledge gaps. Over the last five years, the authors have shown skill in predicting U.S. tornado activity two to three weeks in advance during boreal spring. Unsurprisingly, skill is shown to be greater for forecasts spanning week 2 versus week 3. This manuscript documents these forecasting efforts, provides verification statistics, and shares the challenges and lessons learned from predicting tornado activity on the subseasonal time scale.

Human CA1 and subiculum activity forecast stroke chronicity

ABSTRACTFollowing a stroke, the brain undergoes a process of neuronal reorganization to compensate for structural damage and cope with functionality loss. Increases in stroke-induced neurogenesis rates in the dentate gyrus and neural migration from the hippocampus towards the affected site have been observed, suggesting that the hippocampus is involved in functionality gains and neural reorganization. Despite the observed hippocampal contributions to structural changes, the hippocampal physiology for stroke recovery has been poorly characterized. To this end, we measured resting-state whole-brain activity from non-hippocampal stroke survivors (n=13) during functional MRI scanning. Analysis of multiple hippocampal subregions revealed that the voxel activity of hippocampal readout sites (CA1 and subiculum) forecast the patient’s chronicity stage stronger than early regions of the hippocampal circuit. Furthermore, we observed hemispheric-specific contributions to chronicity forecasting, raising the hypothesis that left and right hippocampus are functionally dissociable during recovery. In addition, we suggest that in contrast with whole-brain analysis, the monitoring of segregated and specialized sub-networks after stroke potentially reveals detailed aspects of stroke recovery. Altogether, our results shed light on the contribution of the subcortical-cortical interplay for neural reorganization and highlight new avenues for stroke rehabilitation.

Managing Activity-Based Funding Using Costing Data and Activity-Based Budgets

This chapter will show how detailed information from an activity-based costing (ABC) system can be used to support activity-based funding (ABF) by providing management with a detailed perspective of the activity and how it can be used to internally model the allocation of target activity to build an activity-based budget (ABB). By building a set of internal cost weights based on ABC data, this chapter will show how activity forecast in a funding agreement can be broken up and applied to the individual cost centers that contributed to the activity in the current year. Building an ABB provides an evidence base for the overarching hospital budget and encourages the adoption of a focus on efficiency by hospital departments.

Forecasting growth of the Australian unconventional oil and gas services market

This paper examines the unconventional oil and gas oilfield services market in Australia. First, the paper gives an activity forecast through to 2025 on how many wells are expected to be completed. The paper looks at how the geology, supply chain, infrastructure, finance and other constraints compare to the Vaca Muerta in Argentina and the Permian in the United States. Finally, the paper looks at the completive landscape and supply demand balance of the frac services market within Australia.

Night-time activity forecast by season and weather in a longitudinal design – natural light effects on three years’ rest-activity cycles in nursing home residents with dementia

ABSTRACTBackround:Night-time agitation is a frequent symptom of dementia. It often causes nursing home admission and has been linked to circadian rhythm disturbances. A positive influence of light interventions on night-time agitation was shown in several studies. The aim of our study was to investigate whether there is a long-term association between regional weather data (as indicator for daylight availability) and 24-hour variations of motor activity.Methods:Motor activity of 20 elderly nursing home residents living with dementia was analyzed using recordings of continuously worn wrist activity monitors over a three-year period. The average recording duration was 479 ± 206 days per participant (mean ± SD). Regional cloud amount and day length data from the local weather station (latitude: 52°56′N) were included in the analysis to investigate their effects on several activity variables.Results:Nocturnal rest, here defined as the five consecutive hours with the least motor activity during 24 hours (L5), was the most predictable activity variable per participant. There was a significant interaction of night-time activity with day length and cloud amount (F1,1174 = 4.39; p = 0.036). Night-time activity was higher on cloudy short days than on clear short days (p = 0.007), and it was also higher on cloudy short days than on cloudy long days (p = 0.032).Conclusions:The need for sufficient zeitgeber (time cue) strength during winter time, especially when days are short and skies are cloudy, is crucial for elderly people living with dementia. Activity forecast by season and weather might be a valuable approach to anticipate adequately complementary use of electrical light and thereby foster lower night-time activity.

Methodology of Epidemic Risk Management in Kazakhstan with Open-Source EIDSS

In order to transition the forecasting, estimation and management of epidemic risks to individual administrative areas, the Agency for Consumer Rights Protection of Kazakhstan has developed the Regional Sanitary-Epidemiological Passport (RSEP). The RSEP will contain information on the infectious incidence rate dynamics according to the main infections (7 nosologies) with a forecast for 2-3 years, and natural and soil foci GIS maps for especially dangerous pathogens with their activity forecast for 3-5 years. Approbation of RSEP was conducted for the Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever. Planned work includes estimation method adjustment, retrospective databank formation, GIS archive creation and Open-source EIDSS system application.