scholarly journals Reducing Uncertainty in 21st Century Sea-Level Predictions and Beyond

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Siegert ◽  
Pam Pearson
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Sea Water ◽  
Economic Cost ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Water Infiltration ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Fresh Groundwater ◽  
Groundwater Reserves

Sea-level rise is one of the most critical issues the world faces under global warming. Around 680 million people (10% of the world’s population) live in low-lying coastal regions that are susceptible to flooding through storm surges and from sea-water infiltration of fresh groundwater reserves, degradation of farmland and accelerated coastal erosion, among other impacts. Rising sea level will exacerbate these problems and lead to societal impacts ranging from crop and water-supply failures to breakdowns of city infrastructures. In time, it is likely such changes will necessitate the migration of people with substantial economic cost and social upheaval. Here, we discuss the physical processes influencing 21st Century sea-level rise, the importance of not using 2100 alone as a benchmark, the changes that are already locked in, especially after 2100, and those that can be avoided. We also consider the need for both adaptation and mitigation measures and early warning systems in this challenging global problem. Finally, we discuss how the scientific prediction of sea level rise can improved through international coordination, cooperation and cost sharing.

scholarly journals Transboundary geophysical mapping of geological elements and salinity distribution critical for the assessment of future sea water intrusion in response to sea level rise

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (7) ◽  
pp. 1845-1862 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Jørgensen ◽  
W. Scheer ◽  
S. Thomsen ◽  
T. O. Sonnenborg ◽  
K. Hinsby ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Groundwater Flow ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Preferential Flow ◽  
Sea Water ◽  
Saline Water ◽  
Seismic Survey ◽  
Salinity Distribution ◽  
Geological Structures ◽  
The North

Abstract. Geophysical techniques are increasingly being used as tools for characterising the subsurface, and they are generally required to develop subsurface models that properly delineate the distribution of aquifers and aquitards, salt/freshwater interfaces, and geological structures that affect groundwater flow. In a study area covering 730 km2 across the border between Germany and Denmark, a combination of an airborne electromagnetic survey (performed with the SkyTEM system), a high-resolution seismic survey and borehole logging has been used in an integrated mapping of important geological, physical and chemical features of the subsurface. The spacing between flight lines is 200–250 m which gives a total of about 3200 line km. About 38 km of seismic lines have been collected. Faults bordering a graben structure, buried tunnel valleys, glaciotectonic thrust complexes, marine clay units, and sand aquifers are all examples of geological structures mapped by the geophysical data that control groundwater flow and to some extent hydrochemistry. Additionally, the data provide an excellent picture of the salinity distribution in the area and thus provide important information on the salt/freshwater boundary and the chemical status of groundwater. Although the westernmost part of the study area along the North Sea coast is saturated with saline water and the TEM data therefore are strongly influenced by the increased electrical conductivity there, buried valleys and other geological elements are still revealed. The mapped salinity distribution indicates preferential flow paths through and along specific geological structures within the area. The effects of a future sea level rise on the groundwater system and groundwater chemistry are discussed with special emphasis on the importance of knowing the existence, distribution and geometry of the mapped geological elements, and their control on the groundwater salinity distribution is assessed.

scholarly journals Potential Impacts of Storm Surges and Sea-level Rise on Nesting Habitat of Red-breasted Mergansers (Mergus serrator) on Barrier Islands in New Brunswick, Canada

Waterbirds ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 77-85 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shawn R. Craik ◽  
Alan R. Hanson ◽  
Rodger D. Titman ◽  
Matthew L. Mahoney ◽  
Éric Tremblay
Keyword(s):  
New Brunswick ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Barrier Islands ◽  
Nesting Habitat ◽  
Mergus Serrator ◽  
And Sea Level

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on New York City’s coastal flood hazard: Increasing flood heights from the preindustrial to 2300 CE

2017 ◽  
Vol 114 (45) ◽  
pp. 11861-11866 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andra J. Garner ◽  
Michael E. Mann ◽  
Kerry A. Emanuel ◽  
Robert E. Kopp ◽  
Ning Lin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
York City ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Tidal Level

The flood hazard in New York City depends on both storm surges and rising sea levels. We combine modeled storm surges with probabilistic sea-level rise projections to assess future coastal inundation in New York City from the preindustrial era through 2300 CE. The storm surges are derived from large sets of synthetic tropical cyclones, downscaled from RCP8.5 simulations from three CMIP5 models. The sea-level rise projections account for potential partial collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet in assessing future coastal inundation. CMIP5 models indicate that there will be minimal change in storm-surge heights from 2010 to 2100 or 2300, because the predicted strengthening of the strongest storms will be compensated by storm tracks moving offshore at the latitude of New York City. However, projected sea-level rise causes overall flood heights associated with tropical cyclones in New York City in coming centuries to increase greatly compared with preindustrial or modern flood heights. For the various sea-level rise scenarios we consider, the 1-in-500-y flood event increases from 3.4 m above mean tidal level during 1970–2005 to 4.0–5.1 m above mean tidal level by 2080–2100 and ranges from 5.0–15.4 m above mean tidal level by 2280–2300. Further, we find that the return period of a 2.25-m flood has decreased from ∼500 y before 1800 to ∼25 y during 1970–2005 and further decreases to ∼5 y by 2030–2045 in 95% of our simulations. The 2.25-m flood height is permanently exceeded by 2280–2300 for scenarios that include Antarctica’s potential partial collapse.

scholarly journals Impact of Sea-Level Rise on Sea Water Intrusion in Coastal Aquifers

Ground Water ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 197-204 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adrian D. Werner ◽  
Craig T. Simmons
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Coastal Aquifers ◽  
Sea Water ◽  
Sea Water Intrusion ◽  
Water Intrusion

scholarly journals Assessing groundwater vulnerability to sea water intrusion in the coastline of the inner Puck Bay using GALDIT method

2018 ◽  
Vol 54 ◽  
pp. 00023 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dawid Potrykus ◽  
Anna Gumuła-Kawęcka ◽  
Beata Jaworska-Szulc ◽  
Małgorzata Pruszkowska-Caceres ◽  
Adam Szymkiewicz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Seawater Intrusion ◽  
Sea Water ◽  
Groundwater Vulnerability ◽  
Aquifer Vulnerability ◽  
Galdit Method ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Simulated Scenario ◽  
Puck Bay

In this research, GALDIT method was used to assess seawater intrusion in the coastal aquifer of the inner Puck Bay (Southern Baltic Sea). The impact of potential sea-level rise on groundwater vulnerability for years 2081-2100 was also considered. The study area was categorized into three classes of vulnerability: low, moderate and high. The most vulnerable area is the Hel Peninsula with northern part of the Kashubian Coastland. Increased class of aquifer vulnerability is also adopted to glacial valleys. The results of this research revealed that about 18.9% of the analyzed area is highly vulnerable to seawater intrusion, 25.3% is moderately vulnerable and 55.8% is potentially at low risk. The simulated scenario of predicted sea level rise shows enlargement of high vulnerability areas.

scholarly journals Impact of Barrier Breaching on Wetland Ecosystems under the Influence of Storm Surge, Sea-Level Rise and Freshwater Discharge

Wetlands ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (4) ◽  
pp. 771-785 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaorong Li ◽  
Nicoletta Leonardi ◽  
Andrew J. Plater
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
River Discharge ◽  
Coastal Wetland ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Wetland Ecology ◽  
Barrier Beach ◽  
Wetland Ecosystems ◽  
Wetland Habitats

Abstract Coastal wetland ecosystems and biodiversity are susceptible to changes in salinity brought about by the local effects of climate change, meteorological extremes, coastal evolution and human intervention. This study investigates changes in the salinity of surface water and the associated impacts on back-barrier wetlands as a result of breaching of a barrier beach and under the compound action of different surge heights, accelerated sea-level rise (SLR), river discharge and rainfall. We show that barrier breaching can have significant effects in terms of vegetation die-back even without the occurrence of large storm surges or in the absence of SLR, and that rainfall alone is unlikely to be sufficient to mitigate increased salinity due to direct tidal flushing. Results demonstrate that an increase in sea level corresponding to the RCP8.5 scenario for year 2100 causes a greater impact in terms of reedbed loss than storm surges up to 2 m with no SLR. In mitigation of the consequent changes in wetland ecology, regulation of relatively small and continuous river discharge can be regarded as a strategy for the management of coastal back-barrier wetland habitats and for the maintenance of brackish ecosystems. As such, this study provides a tool for scoping the potential impacts of storms, climate change and alternative management strategies on existing wetland habitats and species.

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