scholarly journals Broadening Predictive Understanding of Species’ Range Responses to Climate Change: The Case of Aloidendron dichotomum

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lara P. Brodie ◽  
Kerry-Anne Grey ◽  
Jacqueline M. Bishop ◽  
Guy F. Midgley
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
Species Range ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Holocene Climate ◽  
Range Dynamics ◽  
Climate Transition

Concerns have been raised about attribution of species range shifts to anthropogenic climate change. Species paleo-range projections are emerging as a means to broaden understanding of range shifts and could be applied to assist in attribution. Apparent recent range contraction in the Quiver Tree (Aloidendron dichotomum (Masson) Klopper and Gideon F.Sm) has been attributed to anthropogenic climate change, but this has been challenged. We simulated the paleo- and future geographic range of A. dichotomum under changing climate using species distribution models (SDMs) to provide a broader perspective on its range dynamics. Ensemble modelling of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), mid-Holocene, current, and projected 2070 time periods simulates a paleo-historical poleward expansion of suitable bioclimatic space for this species under natural climate change post-LGM, and projects an eastward shift towards 2070. During the LGM, suitable bioclimatic space for A. dichotomum was simulated to be restricted to the equatorward part of its current range. During the Pleistocene/mid-Holocene climate transition period, the species’ range is predicted to have expanded significantly polewards at an average rate of 0.4 km per decade, assuming constant tracking of its optimal climatic niche. By 2070, suitable bioclimatic space is projected to expand further eastward into the summer rainfall region of South Africa, and contract in its equatorward reaches. Simulated post-LGM shifts roughly match expectations based on preliminary phylogenetic information, further supporting the attribution of current population declines to anthropogenic climate change drivers. Equatorward populations are required to migrate south-eastwards at a rate roughly 15 times faster than that calculated for the LGM/mid-Holocene climate transition period to avoid local extirpation. A preliminary analysis of range-wide genetic variation reveals a cline of variation, with generally higher levels in the central and more northerly part of the species distribution, as expected from the proposed paleo-range of the species. A more detailed analysis of the species’ phylogeographic history could be used to test the proposed paleo-range dynamics presented here, and if confirmed, would provide strong support for the use of this species as an indicator of anthropogenic climate change and a powerful case study for testing the implementation of conservation actions.

scholarly journals Integrating climate change and human impacts into marine spatial planning: A case study of threatened starfish species in Brazil

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nayla Shibayama Patrizzi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Geographical Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Human Impacts ◽  
Species Range ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Distribution Data ◽  
Ecological Niche Models ◽  
Anthropogenic Pressures

Network expansion of marine protected areas in a changing world is a difficult task for conservation planners. Brazil experiences a combination of low and uneven protection of marine environmets, increasing anthropogenic pressures, climate change, and gaps in information regarding the geographical distribution of many species (Wallacean shortfall). Here, we addressed these issues and present a strategy for identifying priority marine areas for conservation in Brazil that would contribute to increasing species representation and achievement of conservation targets. Within this strategy, we accounted for (i) species range shifts due to climate change and their influence on species distribution, (ii) the lack of species geographical distribution data, and (iii) anthropic pressures on oceans. First, we built ecological niche models (ENMs) for 12 threatened starfish species in both present and future (2100) times using Maxent. We also quantified and mapped species range shifts. Second, we developed three conservation spatial solutions and compared the 10% top-ranked areas. The results showed that ENMs had a good performance in representing the distribution of species, even those that had few occurrence records. Our models forecasted a significant range expansion for the majority of species (10 out 12) by 2100. We found that the priority sites covering the top-ranked 10% in the study area identified in ours conservation spatial solutions would protect between 10.41% and 15.88%, on average, of suitable areas for the starfish species. Our results indicated priority sites for conservation less affected by anthropic pressures (~2%) when data on human impacts on oceans were incorporated into the spatial prioritization process. We identified a network of priority marine sites for conservation that minimized human influence and considered the effects of climate change on species distribution. We used threatened starfish species as a case study for illustrating our approach; however, such an approach could be applied to any taxonomic group, which supports the development of more effective conservation actions that represent biodiversity under such threats.

scholarly journals Using species distribution models to infer potential climate change-induced range shifts of freshwater fish in south-eastern Australia

2011 ◽  
Vol 62 (9) ◽  
pp. 1043 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nick Bond ◽  
Jim Thomson ◽  
Paul Reich ◽  
Janet Stein
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Freshwater Fish ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Distribution Models

There are few quantitative predictions for the impacts of climate change on freshwater fish in Australia. We developed species distribution models (SDMs) linking historical fish distributions for 43 species from Victorian streams to a suite of hydro-climatic and catchment predictors, and applied these models to explore predicted range shifts under future climate-change scenarios. Here, we present summary results for the 43 species, together with a more detailed analysis for a subset of species with distinct distributions in relation to temperature and hydrology. Range shifts increased from the lower to upper climate-change scenarios, with most species predicted to undergo some degree of range shift. Changes in total occupancy ranged from –38% to +63% under the lower climate-change scenario to –47% to +182% under the upper climate-change scenario. We do, however, caution that range expansions are more putative than range contractions, because the effects of barriers, limited dispersal and potential life-history factors are likely to exclude some areas from being colonised. As well as potentially informing more mechanistic modelling approaches, quantitative predictions such as these should be seen as representing hypotheses to be tested and discussed, and should be valuable for informing long-term strategies to protect aquatic biota.

scholarly journals A metapopulation approach to predict species range shifts under different climate change and landscape connectivity scenarios

2017 ◽  
Vol 359 ◽  
pp. 406-414 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frederico Mestre ◽  
Benjamin B. Risk ◽  
António Mira ◽  
Pedro Beja ◽  
Ricardo Pita
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Landscape Connectivity ◽  
Species Range ◽  
Range Shifts

scholarly journals Not all biodiversity rich spots are climate refugia

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (24) ◽  
pp. 6567-6578
Author(s):  
Ádám T. Kocsis ◽  
Qianshuo Zhao ◽  
Mark J. Costello ◽  
Wolfgang Kiessling
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Absolute Temperature ◽  
Elevated Risk ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Future Warming ◽  
Almost All

Abstract. Anthropogenic climate change is increasingly threatening biodiversity on a global scale. Rich spots of biodiversity, regions with exceptionally high endemism and/or number of species, are a top priority for nature conservation. Terrestrial studies have hypothesized that rich spots occur in places where long-term climate change was dampened relative to other regions. Here we tested whether biodiversity rich spots are likely to provide refugia for organisms during anthropogenic climate change. We assessed the spatial distribution of both historic (absolute temperature change and climate change velocities) and projected climate change in terrestrial, freshwater, and marine rich spots. Our analyses confirm the general consensus that global warming will impact almost all rich spots of all three realms and suggest that their characteristic biota is expected to witness similar forcing to other areas, including range shifts and elevated risk of extinction. Marine rich spots seem to be particularly sensitive to global warming: they have warmed more, have higher climate velocities, and are projected to experience higher future warming than non-rich-spot areas. However, our results also suggest that terrestrial and freshwater rich spots will be somewhat less affected than other areas. These findings emphasize the urgency of protecting a comprehensive and representative network of biodiversity-rich areas that accommodate species range shifts under climate change.

scholarly journals Simulating Growth and Competition on Wet and Waterlogged Soils in a Forest Landscape Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric J. Gustafson ◽  
Brian R. Miranda ◽  
Anatoly Z. Shvidenko ◽  
Brian R. Sturtevant
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tree Growth ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Species Range ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Forest Landscape ◽  
Landscape Model ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Forest Landscape Model ◽  
Waterlogged Soils

Changes in CO2 concentration and climate are likely to alter disturbance regimes and competitive outcomes among tree species, which ultimately can result in shifts of species and biome boundaries. Such changes are already evident in high latitude forests, where waterlogged soils produced by topography, surficial geology, and permafrost are an important driver of forest dynamics. Predicting such effects under the novel conditions of the future requires models with direct and mechanistic links of abiotic drivers to growth and competition. We enhanced such a forest landscape model (PnET-Succession in LANDIS-II) to allow simulation of waterlogged soils and their effects on tree growth and competition. We formally tested how these modifications alter water balance on wetland and permafrost sites, and their effect on tree growth and competition. We applied the model to evaluate its promise for mechanistically simulating species range expansion and contraction under climate change across a latitudinal gradient in Siberian Russia. We found that higher emissions scenarios permitted range expansions that were quicker and allowed a greater diversity of invading species, especially at the highest latitudes, and that disturbance hastened range shifts by overcoming the natural inertia of established ecological communities. The primary driver of range advances to the north was altered hydrology related to thawing permafrost, followed by temperature effects on growth. Range contractions from the south (extirpations) were slower and less tied to emissions or latitude, and were driven by inability to compete with invaders, or disturbance. An important non-intuitive result was that some extant species were killed off by extreme cold events projected under climate change as greater weather extremes occurred over the next 30 years, and this had important effects on subsequent successional trajectories. The mechanistic linkages between climate and soil water dynamics in this forest landscape model produced tight links between climate inputs, physiology of vegetation, and soils at a monthly time step. The updated modeling system can produce high quality projections of climate impacts on forest species range shifts by accounting for the interacting effects of CO2 concentration, climate (including longer growing seasons), seed dispersal, disturbance, and soil hydrologic properties.

scholarly journals Quantifying Species' Range Shifts in Relation to Climate Change: A Case Study of Abies spp. in China

PLoS ONE ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 6 (8) ◽  
pp. e23115 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaojun Kou ◽  
Qin Li ◽  
Shirong Liu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Range ◽  
Range Shifts
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