scholarly journals Climate Change Induced Coastline Change Adjacent to Small Tidal Inlets

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Trang Minh Duong
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Ocean Waves ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Coastal Hazards ◽  
Tidal Inlets

The many thousands of small tidal inlets (STIs), and their adjacent coastlines, are almost certain to be affected by climate change in multiple ways, due to their behaviour being closely linked to both oceanic and terrestrial drivers such as riverflow, sea level, and ocean waves, all which are projected to change over the 21st century. Development of risk informed adaptation strategies for these highly utilized and inhabited inlet-interrupted coast zones requires projections of both alongshore average coastline recession and alongshore variability in coastline position along the coast under future forcing conditions, the latter being an aspect that has not received much attention to date. Here, a combination of a process-based morphodynamic model (Delft3D) and the reduced complexity coastline model (SMIC), concurrently forced with tides, waves, riverflows, and sea level rise, is used to investigate both of these phenomena at STI-interrupted coasts. The models are here applied to schematised conditions representing two systems in Sri Lanka, representing two of the three main Types of STIs: Negombo lagoon – permanently open, locationally stable inlet (Type 1), and Kalutara lagoon – permanently open, alongshore migrating inlet (Type 2). Results indicate that, under a high emissions climate scenario following RCP 8.5, by end-century, the coastline adjacent to the Type 1 STI may experience an alongshore average recession as large as 200 m, and that the alongshore variability in coastline position may be up to twice that at present. The Type 2 STI is projected to experience an alongshore average coastline recession of about 120 m, and up to a 75% increase in alongshore variability in coastline position by end-century, relative to the present. Thus, both the alongshore average coastline recession and the increase in the alongshore variability in coastline position are greater at the Type 1 STI, compared to at the Type 2 STI. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for both alongshore average coastline recession and future changes in alongshore variability in coastline position when assessing coastal hazards and risk on inlet-interrupted coasts to adequately inform climate adaptation strategies.

scholarly journals Probabilistic projections of the stability of small tidal inlets at century time scale using a reduced complexity approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Trang Minh Duong ◽  
Roshanka Ranasinghe ◽  
David P. Callaghan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Tidal Inlets ◽  
Unstable Type ◽  
Reduced Complexity ◽  
Type 3

AbstractClimate change is widely expected to affect the thousands of small tidal inlets (STIs) dotting the global coastline. To properly inform effective adaptation strategies for the coastal areas in the vicinity of these inlets, it is necessary to know the temporal evolution of inlet stability over climate change time scales (50–100 years). As available numerical models are unable to perform continuous morphodynamic simulations at such time scales, here we develop and pilot a fast, probabilistic, reduced complexity model (RAPSTA – RAPid assessment tool of inlet STAbility) that can also quantify forcing uncertainties. RAPSTA accounts for the key physical processes governing STI stability and for climate change driven variations in system forcing. The model is very fast, providing a 100 year projection in less than 3 seconds. RAPSTA is demonstrated here at 3 STIs, representing the 3 main Types of STIs; Permanently open, locationally stable inlet (Type 1); Permanently open, alongshore migrating inlet (Type 2); Seasonally/Intermittently open, locationally stable inlet (Type 3). Model applications under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), accounting for forcing uncertainties, show that while the Type 1 STI will not change type over the twenty-first century, the Type 2 inlet may change into a more unstable Type 3 system around mid-century, and the Type 3 STI may change into a less unstable Type 2 system in about 20 years from now, further changing into a stable Type 1 STI around mid-century. These projections underscore the need for future adaptation strategies to remain flexible.

scholarly journals Using Virtual Reality in Sea Level Rise Planning and Community Engagement—An Overview

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 1142
Author(s):  
Juliano Calil ◽  
Geraldine Fauville ◽  
Anna Carolina Muller Queiroz ◽  
Kelly L. Leo ◽  
Alyssa G. Newton Mann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Virtual Reality ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Community Outreach ◽  
Coastal Communities ◽  
Coastal Hazards ◽  
Multidisciplinary Teams ◽  
Simple Task ◽  
Coastal Risks

As coastal communities around the globe contend with the impacts of climate change including coastal hazards such as sea level rise and more frequent coastal storms, educating stakeholders and the general public has become essential in order to adapt to and mitigate these risks. Communicating SLR and other coastal risks is not a simple task. First, SLR is a phenomenon that is abstract as it is physically distant from many people; second, the rise of the sea is a slow and temporally distant process which makes this issue psychologically distant from our everyday life. Virtual reality (VR) simulations may offer a way to overcome some of these challenges, enabling users to learn key principles related to climate change and coastal risks in an immersive, interactive, and safe learning environment. This article first presents the literature on environmental issues communication and engagement; second, it introduces VR technology evolution and expands the discussion on VR application for environmental literacy. We then provide an account of how three coastal communities have used VR experiences developed by multidisciplinary teams—including residents—to support communication and community outreach focused on SLR and discuss their implications.

scholarly journals Quantifying Uncertainty in Exposure to Coastal Hazards Associated with Both Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies: A U.S. Pacific Northwest Alternative Coastal Futures Analysis

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 545
Author(s):  
Alexis K. Mills ◽  
Peter Ruggiero ◽  
John P. Bolte ◽  
Katherine A. Serafin ◽  
Eva Lipiec
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Coastal Hazards ◽  
Policy Decisions ◽  
Management Decisions ◽  
Quantifying Uncertainty

Coastal communities face heightened risk to coastal flooding and erosion hazards due to sea-level rise, changing storminess patterns, and evolving human development pressures. Incorporating uncertainty associated with both climate change and the range of possible adaptation measures is essential for projecting the evolving exposure to coastal flooding and erosion, as well as associated community vulnerability through time. A spatially explicit agent-based modeling platform, that provides a scenario-based framework for examining interactions between human and natural systems across a landscape, was used in Tillamook County, OR (USA) to explore strategies that may reduce exposure to coastal hazards within the context of climate change. Probabilistic simulations of extreme water levels were used to assess the impacts of variable projections of sea-level rise and storminess both as individual climate drivers and under a range of integrated climate change scenarios through the end of the century. Additionally, policy drivers, modeled both as individual management decisions and as policies integrated within adaptation scenarios, captured variability in possible human response to increased hazards risk. The relative contribution of variability and uncertainty from both climate change and policy decisions was quantified using three stakeholder relevant landscape performance metrics related to flooding, erosion, and recreational beach accessibility. In general, policy decisions introduced greater variability and uncertainty to the impacts of coastal hazards than climate change uncertainty. Quantifying uncertainty across a suite of coproduced performance metrics can help determine the relative impact of management decisions on the adaptive capacity of communities under future climate scenarios.

Droughts, floods and freshwater ecosystems: evaluating climate change impacts and developing adaptation strategies

2011 ◽  
Vol 62 (3) ◽  
pp. 223 ◽  
Author(s):  
Allison Aldous ◽  
James Fitzsimons ◽  
Brian Richter ◽  
Leslie Bach
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Freshwater Ecosystems ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
South Eastern ◽  
Eastern Australia

Climate change is expected to have significant impacts on hydrologic regimes and freshwater ecosystems, and yet few basins have adequate numerical models to guide the development of freshwater climate adaptation strategies. Such strategies can build on existing freshwater conservation activities, and incorporate predicted climate change impacts. We illustrate this concept with three case studies. In the Upper Klamath Basin of the western USA, a shift in land management practices would buffer this landscape from a declining snowpack. In the Murray–Darling Basin of south-eastern Australia, identifying the requirements of flood-dependent natural values would better inform the delivery of environmental water in response to reduced runoff and less water. In the Savannah Basin of the south-eastern USA, dam managers are considering technological and engineering upgrades in response to more severe floods and droughts, which would also improve the implementation of recommended environmental flows. Even though the three case studies are in different landscapes, they all contain significant freshwater biodiversity values. These values are threatened by water allocation problems that will be exacerbated by climate change, and yet all provide opportunities for the development of effective climate adaptation strategies.

scholarly journals Toward an integrated system of climate change and human health indicators: a conceptual framework

2021 ◽  
Vol 166 (3-4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ann Y. Liu ◽  
Juli M. Trtanj ◽  
Erin K. Lipp ◽  
John M. Balbus
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Climate Change ◽  
Health Outcomes ◽  
Conceptual Framework ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Health Indicators ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Integrated System ◽  
Health Trends ◽  
Science And Policy

AbstractEnvironmental health indicators are helpful for tracking and communicating complex health trends, informing science and policy decisions, and evaluating public health actions. When provided on a national scale, they can help inform the general public, policymakers, and public health professionals about important trends in exposures and how well public health systems are preventing those exposures from causing adverse health outcomes. There is a growing need to understand national trends in exposures and health outcomes associated with climate change and the effectiveness of climate adaptation strategies for health. To date, most indicators for health implications of climate change have been designed as independent, individual metrics. This approach fails to take into account how exposure-outcome pathways for climate-attributable health outcomes involve multiple, interconnected components. We propose reframing climate change and health indicators as a linked system of indicators, which can be described as follows: upstream climate drivers affect environmental states, which then determine human exposures, which ultimately lead to health outcomes; these climate-related risks are modified by population vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies. We apply this new conceptual framework to three illustrative climate-sensitive health outcomes and associated exposure-outcome pathways: pollen allergies and asthma, West Nile virus infection, and vibriosis.

scholarly journals Coastal Flooding and Erosion under a Changing Climate: Implications at a Low-Lying Coast (Ebro Delta)

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 346 ◽  
Author(s):  
Albert Grases ◽  
Vicente Gracia ◽  
Manuel García-León ◽  
Jue Lin-Ye ◽  
Joan Pau Sierra
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sediment Transport ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Wave Model ◽  
Ebro Delta ◽  
Coastal Hazards ◽  
Sand Transport ◽  
Storm Waves

Episodic coastal hazards associated to sea storms are responsible for sudden and intense changes in coastal morphology. Climate change and local anthropogenic activities such as river regulation and urban growth are raising risk levels in coastal hotspots, like low-lying areas of river deltas. This urges to revise present management strategies to guarantee their future sustainability, demanding a detailed diagnostic of the hazard evolution. In this paper, flooding and erosion under current and future conditions have been assessed at local scale at the urban area of Riumar, a touristic enclave placed at the Ebro Delta (Spain). Process-based models have been used to address the interaction between beach morphology and storm waves, as well as the influence of coastal environment complexity. Storm waves have been propagated with SWAN wave model and have provided the forcings for XBeach, a 2DH hydro-morphodynamic model. Results show that future trends in sea level rise and wave forcing produce non-linear variations of the flooded area and the volume of mobilized sediment resulting from marine storms. In particular, the balance between flooding and sediment transport will shift depending on the relative sea level. Wave induced flooding and long-shore sand transport seem to be diminished in the future, whereas static sea level flooding and cross-shore sediment transport are exacerbated. Therefore, the characterization of tipping points in the coastal response can help to develop robust and adaptive plans to manage climate change impact in sandy wave dominated coasts with a low-lying hinterland and a complex shoreline morphology.

scholarly journals Copernicus Sea Level Space Observations: A Basis for Assessing Mitigation and Developing Adaptation Strategies to Sea Level Rise

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-François Legeais ◽  
Benoît Meyssignac ◽  
Yannice Faugère ◽  
Adrien Guerou ◽  
Michaël Ablain ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Sea Level Changes ◽  
Global Mean Sea Level ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Scientific Questions ◽  
Processing Steps

It is essential to monitor accurately current sea level changes to better understand and project future sea level rise (SLR). This is the basis to support the design of adaptation strategies to climate change. Altimeter sea level products are operationally produced and distributed by the E.U. Copernicus services dedicated to the marine environment (CMEMS) and climate change (C3S). The present article is a review paper that intends to explain why and to which extent the sea level monitoring indicators derived from these products are appropriate to develop adaptation strategies to SLR. We first present the main key scientific questions and challenges related to SLR monitoring. The different processing steps of the altimeter production system are presented including those ensuring the quality and the stability of the sea level record (starting in 1993). Due to the numerous altimeter algorithms required for the production, it is complex to ensure both the retrieval of high-resolution mesoscale signals and the stability of the large-scale wavelengths. This has led to the operational production of two different sea level datasets whose specificities are characterized. We present the corresponding indicators: the global mean sea level (GMSL) evolution and the regional map of sea level trends, with their respective uncertainties. We discuss how these products and associated indicators support adaptation to SLR, and we illustrate with an example of downstream application. The remaining gaps are analyzed and recommendations for the future are provided.

scholarly journals Challenges in Chennai City to Cope with Changing Climate

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-43
Author(s):  
Anushiya Jeganathan ◽  
Ramachandran Andimuthu ◽  
Palanivelu Kandasamy
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Coastal Hazards ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Rapid Urbanization ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Green Cover ◽  
Chennai City

Cities are dynamic systems resulting from the complex interaction of various socio-ecological and environmental developments. Climate change disproportionately affects cities mostly located in climate-sensitive areas; thus, these urban systems are the most critical in modern societies under changing climate scenarios, uncertain disruptions, and urban inhabitants' daily lives. It is essential to analyze the challenges in the metropolitan area through the lens of climate change. The present work analyses the challenges in Chennai, a coastal city in India and one of the chief industrial growth canters in Indian and South Asian region. The challenges are analyzed through the city’s system analysis via land use, green cover, population, and coastal hazards. Land use and green cover changes are studied through satellite images using ArcGIS and assessing coastal risks due to sea-level rise through GIS-based inundation model. There are drastic changes in land-use patterns; the green cover had reduced much, including agricultural and forest cover due to rapid urbanization. The land use has changed to 59.6% of the reduction in agriculture land, nearly 40% reduction in forest land, and 47% of the wetland over time. The observed mean sea level trend for Chennai is + 0.55 mm/year from 1916 to 2015 and the area of 21.75 sq. km is under the threat of inundation to 0.5m sea-level rise. The population growth, drastic changes in land use pattern, green cover reduction, and inundation due to sea-level rise increase the city's risks to climate change. There is a need to ensure that future land-use developments do not worsen the current climate risk level, either through influencing the hazards themselves or affecting the urban system's future vulnerability and adaptive capacity. The study also urges the zone level adaptation strategies to ensure the resilience of the city.

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