scholarly journals A Thermal Discomfort Index for Demand Response Control in Residential Water Heaters

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (21) ◽  
pp. 10048
Author(s):  
Rodrigo Porteiro ◽  
Juan Chavat ◽  
Sergio Nesmachnow
Keyword(s):  
Demand Response ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Demand Management ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Thermal Discomfort ◽  
Water Heaters ◽  
Electricity Grids ◽  
Discomfort Index ◽  
Real Scenario ◽  
The Impact

Demand-response techniques are crucial for providing a proper quality of service under the paradigm of smart electricity grids. However, control strategies may perturb and cause discomfort to clients. This article proposes a methodology for defining an index to estimate the discomfort associated with an active demand management consisting of the interruption of domestic electric water heaters. Methods are applied to build the index include pattern detection for estimating the water utilization using an Extra Trees ensemble learning method and a linear model for water temperature, both based on analysis of real data. In turn, Monte Carlo simulations are applied to calculate the defined index. The proposed approach is evaluated over one real scenario and two simulated scenarios to validate that the thermal discomfort index correctly models the impact on temperature. The simulated scenarios consider a number of households using water heaters to analyze and compare the thermal discomfort index for different interruptions and the effect of using different penalty terms for deviations of the comfort temperature. The obtained results allow designing a proper management strategy to fairly decide which water heaters should be interrupted to guarantee the lower discomfort of users.

scholarly journals Multivariate Prediction Network Model for epidemic progression to study the effects of lockdown time and coverage on a closed community on theoretical and real scenarios of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dimitri Marques Abramov ◽  
Saint-Clair Gomes Junior
Keyword(s):  
Network Model ◽  
Rio De Janeiro ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Exponential Model ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Multivariate Prediction ◽  
Real Scenario ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACTThe aim of this study was to develop a realistic network model to predict the relationship between lockdown duration and coverage in controlling the progression of the incidence curve of an epidemic with the characteristics of COVID-19 in two scenarios (1) a closed and non-immune population, and (2) a real scenario from State of Rio de Janeiro from May 6th 2020.Effects of lockdown time and rate on the progression of an epidemic incidence curve in a virtual population of 10 thousand subjects. Predictor variables were reproductive values established in the most recent literature (R0 =2.7 and 5.7, and Re = 1.28 from Rio de Janeiro State at May 6th), without lockdown and with coverages of 25%, 50%, and 90% for 21, 35, 70, and 140 days in up to 13 different scenarios for each R0/Re, where individuals remained infected and transmitters for 14 days. We estimated model validity in theoretical and real scenarios respectively by applying an exponential model on the incidence curve with no lockdown with growth rate coefficient observed in realistic scenarios, and (2) fitting real data series from RJ upon simulated data, respectively.For R0=5.7, the flattening of the curve occurs only with long lockdown periods (70 and 140 days) with a 90% coverage. For R0=2.7, coverages of 25 and 50% also result in curve flattening and reduction of total cases, provided they occur for a long period (70 days or more). For realistic scenario in Rio de Janeiro, lockdowns +25% or more from May 6th during 140 days showed expressive flattening and number of COVID cases two to five times lower. If a more intense coverage lockdown (about +25 to +50% as much as the current one) will be implemented until June 6th during at least 70 days, it is still possible reduce nearly 40-50% the impact of pandemy in state of Rio de Janeiro.These data corroborate the importance of lockdown duration regardless of virus transmission and sometimes of intensity of coverage, either in realistic or theoretical scenarios of COVID-10 epidemics. Even later, the improvement of lockdown coverage can be effective to minimize the impact of epidemic.

scholarly journals Control of snakebite envenoming: A mathematical modeling study

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (8) ◽  
pp. e0009711
Author(s):  
Shuaibu Ahijo Abdullahi ◽  
Abdulrazaq Garba Habib ◽  
Nafiu Hussaini
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Disability Adjusted Life Years ◽  
Health Awareness ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Disability Adjusted Life ◽  
Life Years ◽  
The Impact

A mathematical model is designed to assess the impact of some interventional strategies for curtailing the burden of snakebite envenoming in a community. The model is fitted with real data set. Numerical simulations have shown that public health awareness of the susceptible individuals on snakebite preventive measures could reduce the number of envenoming and prevent deaths and disabilities in the population. The simulations further revealed that if at least fifty percent of snakebite envenoming patients receive early treatment with antivenom a substantial number of deaths will be averted. Furthermore, it is shown using optimal control that combining public health awareness and antivenom treatment averts the highest number of snakebite induced deaths and disability adjusted life years in the study area. To choose the best strategy amidst limited resources in the study area, cost effectiveness analysis in terms of incremental cost effectiveness ratio is performed. It has been established that the control efforts of combining public health awareness of the susceptible individuals and antivenom treatment for victims of snakebite envenoming is the most cost effective strategy. Approximately the sum of US$72,548 is needed to avert 117 deaths or 2,739 disability adjusted life years that are recorded within 21 months in the study area. Thus, the combination of these two control strategies is recommended.

scholarly journals Optimal Containment Control Strategy of the Second Phase of the COVID-19 Lockdown in Morocco

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (21) ◽  
pp. 7559
Author(s):  
Mustapha Lhous ◽  
Omar Zakary ◽  
Mostafa Rachik ◽  
El Mostafa Magri ◽  
Abdessamad Tridane
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Least Squares Method ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Nonlinear Least Squares ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Containment Control ◽  
Treatment Measures ◽  
The Impact

This work investigates the optimal control of the second phase of the COVID-19 lockdown in Morocco. The model consists of susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered, and quarantine compartments (SEIRQD model), where we take into account contact tracing, social distancing, quarantine, and treatment measures during the nationwide lockdown in Morocco. First, we present different components of the model and their interactions. Second, to validate our model, the nonlinear least-squares method is used to estimate the model’s parameters by fitting the model outcomes to real data of the COVID-19 in Morocco. Next, to investigate the impact of optimal control strategies on this pandemic in the country. We also give numerical simulations to illustrate and compare the obtained results with the actual situation in Morocco.

scholarly journals Modelling gastrointestinal parasitism infection in a sheep flock over two reproductive seasons:in silicoexploration and sensitivity analysis

Parasitology ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 143 (12) ◽  
pp. 1509-1531 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. SACCAREAU ◽  
C. R. MORENO ◽  
I. KYRIAZAKIS ◽  
R. FAIVRE ◽  
S. C. BISHOP
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Sheep Flock ◽  
Source Of Infection ◽  
Teladorsagia Circumcincta ◽  
Host Nutrition ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARYIn reproducing ewes, a periparturient breakdown of immunity is often observed to result in increased fecal egg excretion, making them the main source of infection for their immunologically naive lambs. In this study, we expanded a simulation model previously developed for growing lambs to explore the impact of the genotype (performance and resistance traits) and host nutrition on the performance and parasitism of both growing lambs and reproducing ewes naturally infected withTeladorsagia circumcincta. Our model accounted for nutrient-demanding phases, such as gestation and lactation, and included a supplementary module to manage the age structure of the ewe flock. The model was validated by comparison with published data. Because model parameters were unknown or poorly estimated, detailed sensitivity analysis of the model was performed for the sheep mortality and the level of infection, following a preliminary screening step. The parameters with the greatest effect on parasite-related outputs were those driving animal growth and milk yield. Our model enables different parasite-control strategies (host nutrition, breeding for resistance and anthelmintic treatments) to be assessed on the long term in a sheep flock. To optimizein silicoexploration, the parameters highlighted by the sensitivity analysis should be refined with real data.

scholarly journals The Potential of Utilising Residential Demand Response to Balance the Fluctuation of Wind Power in New Zealand

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Hatem I. Alzaanin
Keyword(s):  
Power System ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Demand Response ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Load Control ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Water Heaters ◽  
Direct Load Control ◽  
Residential Demand

<p>The substantial penetration of wind power introduces increased flexibility requirements on the power system and puts increased pressure on the instantaneous reserve levels required. Instantaneous reserves are a security product that ensures that electricity demand can continue to be met in the event of unplanned generation or transmission interruptions. This reserve must be available to respond very quickly to generation-demand variability. While this is an integral component of the power system, providing instantaneous reserve increases the production cost of power. More calls from energy researchers and stakeholders ask for loads to play an increasingly important role in balancing the short timescale fluctuations in generated wind power. The purpose of this study is to assess the current level of demand responsiveness among domestic refrigerators, freezers, and water heaters and their potential to contribute towards instantaneous reserve and balance the fluctuation of wind. Refrigerators, freezers, and water heaters can generally store energy due to their thermal mass. Interrupting these domestic loads for short time by employing direct load control strategies makes it possible to control these appliances by turning them on or off before their reach their maximum or minimum temperatures or by slightly modifying their temperature set point. Using this strategy helps to ensure that the overall satisfaction of consumers should not be affected. This study first modelled the load profiles of the participated residential appliances and statistically assessed the potential of controlling these residential loads using direct load control strategies to contribute towards instantaneous reserves to mitigate and balance the fluctuation of wind power in the years: 2014, 2020 and 2030. In the second section, it demonstrated the capabilities of the assessed residential responsive loads within Wellington Region network to compensate for and balance the fluctuation of wind power generated from the West Wind Farm in seven selected days in 2013-2014 as a showcase. Such technology can enable a power system operator to remove the burden of both providing instantaneous reserve from conventional sources, and instead maintain such capacity from available residential demand response. The study ends with recommendations to engage residential loads in fast timescale demand response and suggests directions for future research.</p>

scholarly journals The Potential of Utilising Residential Demand Response to Balance the Fluctuation of Wind Power in New Zealand

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Hatem I. Alzaanin
Keyword(s):  
Power System ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Demand Response ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Load Control ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Water Heaters ◽  
Direct Load Control ◽  
Residential Demand

<p>The substantial penetration of wind power introduces increased flexibility requirements on the power system and puts increased pressure on the instantaneous reserve levels required. Instantaneous reserves are a security product that ensures that electricity demand can continue to be met in the event of unplanned generation or transmission interruptions. This reserve must be available to respond very quickly to generation-demand variability. While this is an integral component of the power system, providing instantaneous reserve increases the production cost of power. More calls from energy researchers and stakeholders ask for loads to play an increasingly important role in balancing the short timescale fluctuations in generated wind power. The purpose of this study is to assess the current level of demand responsiveness among domestic refrigerators, freezers, and water heaters and their potential to contribute towards instantaneous reserve and balance the fluctuation of wind. Refrigerators, freezers, and water heaters can generally store energy due to their thermal mass. Interrupting these domestic loads for short time by employing direct load control strategies makes it possible to control these appliances by turning them on or off before their reach their maximum or minimum temperatures or by slightly modifying their temperature set point. Using this strategy helps to ensure that the overall satisfaction of consumers should not be affected. This study first modelled the load profiles of the participated residential appliances and statistically assessed the potential of controlling these residential loads using direct load control strategies to contribute towards instantaneous reserves to mitigate and balance the fluctuation of wind power in the years: 2014, 2020 and 2030. In the second section, it demonstrated the capabilities of the assessed residential responsive loads within Wellington Region network to compensate for and balance the fluctuation of wind power generated from the West Wind Farm in seven selected days in 2013-2014 as a showcase. Such technology can enable a power system operator to remove the burden of both providing instantaneous reserve from conventional sources, and instead maintain such capacity from available residential demand response. The study ends with recommendations to engage residential loads in fast timescale demand response and suggests directions for future research.</p>

scholarly journals When usage matters: time-of-use analysis of Cape Town's Day Zero drought response

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. J. Booysen ◽  
C. Ripunda
Keyword(s):  
Demand Response ◽  
Demand Management ◽  
Domestic Workers ◽  
Early Morning ◽  
Water Shortages ◽  
Disaster Plan ◽  
Inflection Points ◽  
Effects Of Drought ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Major Reduction

Abstract Poor resource management and infrastructure limitations make the effects of drought worse for cities in developing countries. One way to alleviate the impact without large investments is targeted demand management. This has worked well in studies that focused on some of the recent droughts, including Cape Town's ‘Day Zero’ drought of 2016–2018. Many studies have measured demand response to a drought at a coarse time resolution, but few have measured it at an hourly resolution or compared weekday with weekend use. In this study we evaluated households' hourly time-of-use behaviour in response to the Cape Town drought at two prominent inflection points identified by previous studies: the announcement of the Critical Water Shortages Disaster Plan in October 2017 and the introduction of Level 6B restrictions in February 2018. The first major reduction was caused by residents reducing their usage by about a third in the early morning and evening hours on weekdays, and the second, even larger, reduction was achieved in the mid-morning hours on weekdays when home owners were not at home but ensured that domestic workers used water sparingly.

COVID-19: Time-Dependent Effective Reproduction Number and Sub-notification Effect Estimation Modeling (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eduardo Atem De Carvalho ◽  
Rogerio Atem De Carvalho
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Initial Value ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Reproduction Numbers ◽  
Effect Estimation ◽  
The Impact

BACKGROUND Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers and health authorities have sought to identify the different parameters that govern their infection and death cycles, in order to be able to make better decisions. In particular, a series of reproduction number estimation models have been presented, with different practical results. OBJECTIVE This article aims to present an effective and efficient model for estimating the Reproduction Number and to discuss the impacts of sub-notification on these calculations. METHODS The concept of Moving Average Method with Initial value (MAMI) is used, as well as a model for Rt, the Reproduction Number, is derived from experimental data. The models are applied to real data and their performance is presented. RESULTS Analyses on Rt and sub-notification effects for Germany, Italy, Sweden, United Kingdom, South Korea, and the State of New York are presented to show the performance of the methods here introduced. CONCLUSIONS We show that, with relatively simple mathematical tools, it is possible to obtain reliable values for time-dependent, incubation period-independent Reproduction Numbers (Rt). We also demonstrate that the impact of sub-notification is relatively low, after the initial phase of the epidemic cycle has passed.

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