scholarly journals Uncertainties in the Annual Cycle of Rainfall Characteristics over West Africa in CMIP5 Models

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 216
Author(s):  
Magatte Sow ◽  
Moussa Diakhaté ◽  
Ross D. Dixon ◽  
Françoise Guichard ◽  
Diarra Dieng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Annual Cycle ◽  
Late Onset ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Strongly Coupled ◽  
Precipitation Estimates ◽  
Latitudinal Position ◽  
Systematic Biases

We analyse uncertainties associated with the main features of the annual cycle of West African rainfall (amplitude, timing, duration) in 15 CMIP5 simulations over the Sahelian and Guinean regions with satellite daily precipitation estimates. The annual cycle of indices based on daily rainfall such as the frequency and the intensity of wet days, the consecutive dry (CDD) and wet (CWD) days, the 95th percentile of daily rainfall (R95), have been assessed. Over both regions, satellite datasets provide more consistent results on the annual cycle of monthly precipitation than on higher-frequency rainfall indices, especially over the Guinean region. By contrast, CMIP5 simulations display much higher uncertainties in both the mean precipitation climatology and higher-frequency indices. Over both regions, most of them overestimate the frequency of wet days. Over the Guinean region, the difficulty of models to represent the bimodality of the annual cycle of precipitation involves systematic biases in the frequency of wet days. Likewise, we found strong uncertainties in the simulation of the CWD and the CDD over both areas. Finally, models generally provide too early (late) onset dates over the Sahel (the Guinean region) and overestimate rainfall during the early and late monsoon phases. These errors are strongly coupled with errors in the latitudinal position of the ITCZ and do not compensate at the annual scale or when considering West Africa as a whole.

scholarly journals Uncertainties in the Annual Cycle of Rainfall Characteristics Over West Africa in CMIP5 Models

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Magatte Sow ◽  
Moussa Diakhaté ◽  
Ross D. Dixon ◽  
Françoise Guichard ◽  
Diarra Dieng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Annual Cycle ◽  
Late Onset ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Strongly Coupled ◽  
Precipitation Estimates ◽  
Latitudinal Position ◽  
Systematic Biases

This study analyses uncertainties associated with the main features of the annual cycle of West African rainfall (amplitude, timing, duration) in 15 CMIP5 simulations over the Sahelian and Guinean regions with satellite daily precipitation estimates. The annual cycle of indices based on daily rainfall such as the frequency and the intensity of wet days, the consecutive dry (CDD) and wet days (CWD), the 95th percentile of daily rainfall (R95) have been assessed. Over both regions, satellite datasets provide more consistent results on the annual cycle of monthly precipitation than on higher-frequency rainfall indices, especially over the Guinean region. CMIP5 simulations display much higher uncertainties in both the mean precipitation climatology and higher-frequency indices. Over both regions, most of them overestimate the frequency of wet days. Over the Guinean region, the difficulty of models to represent the bimodality of the annual cycle of precipitation involves systematic biases the frequency of wet days. Likewise, we found strong uncertainties in the simulation of the CWD and the CDD over both areas. Finally, models generally provide too early (late) onset dates over the Sahel (the Guinean region) and overestimate rainfall during the early and late monsoon phases. These errors are strongly coupled errors in the latitudinal position of the ITCZ and do not compensate at the annual scale nor when considering West Africa as a whole. wet days. We found strong uncertainties in the simulation of the CWD and he CDD over both areas. Conversely for R95p and R95PTOT, the ncertainties in CMIP5 models appear somewhat weaker, but the magnitude f R95 is largely underestimated in most models.

scholarly journals Uncertainties in the Annual Cycle of Rainfall Characteristics over West Africa in CMIP5 Models

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Magatte Sow ◽  
Moussa Diakhaté ◽  
Françoise Guichard ◽  
Diarra Dieng ◽  
Amadou T. Gaye
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Annual Cycle ◽  
Late Onset ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Rainfall Characteristics ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Annual Scale

This study analyses uncertainties associated with the annual cycle of West African rainfall characteristics in 15 simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) over the Sahel and Guinean regions. Indices based on daily rainfall such as the frequency and the ntensity of wet days, the consecutive dry days (CDD) and wet days (CWD), the 95th percentile of daily rainfall (R95) and its contribution to the umulative monsoon rainfall (R95PTOT) have been assessed. Over both regions, TRMM, GPCP and CHIRPS observational datasets provide very consistent results on the annual cycle of precipitation but less so on the frequency of wet days. Conversely, higher uncertainties are noted on the intensity of wet days over both study areas, particularly over the Guinean region. Overall, CMIP5 simulations present much higher uncertainties in the representation of the mean precipitation climatology, often provide too early (late) onset dates over the Sahel (the Guinean region) and overestimate rainfall during the early and late monsoon phases. These errors do not compensate at the annual scale nor when considering West Africa as a hole. Results also reveal that over the Guinean region, the difficulty of models to represent the annual structure of the mean precipitation strongly involves biases in the representation of the annual cycle of the frequency of wet days. We found strong uncertainties in the simulation of the CWD and he CDD over both areas. Conversely for R95p and R95PTOT, the ncertainties in CMIP5 models appear somewhat weaker, but the magnitude f R95 is largely underestimated in most models.

scholarly journals Uncertainties in the Annual Cycle of Rainfall Characteristics over West Africa in CMIP5 Models

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Magatte Sow ◽  
Moussa Diakhaté ◽  
Françoise Guichard ◽  
Diarra Dieng ◽  
Amadou T. Gaye
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Annual Cycle ◽  
Late Onset ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Rainfall Characteristics ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Annual Scale

This study analyses uncertainties associated with the annual cycle of West African rainfall characteristics in 15 simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) over the Sahel and Guinean regions. Indices based on daily rainfall such as the frequency and the ntensity of wet days, the consecutive dry days (CDD) and wet days (CWD), the 95th percentile of daily rainfall (R95) and its contribution to the umulative monsoon rainfall (R95PTOT) have been assessed. Over both regions, TRMM, GPCP and CHIRPS observational datasets provide very consistent results on the annual cycle of precipitation but less so on the frequency of wet days. Conversely, higher uncertainties are noted on the intensity of wet days over both study areas, particularly over the Guinean region. Overall, CMIP5 simulations present much higher uncertainties in the representation of the mean precipitation climatology, often provide too early (late) onset dates over the Sahel (the Guinean region) and overestimate rainfall during the early and late monsoon phases. These errors do not compensate at the annual scale nor when considering West Africa as a hole. Results also reveal that over the Guinean region, the difficulty of models to represent the annual structure of the mean precipitation strongly involves biases in the representation of the annual cycle of the frequency of wet days. We found strong uncertainties in the simulation of the CWD and he CDD over both areas. Conversely for R95 and R95PTOT, the ncertainties in CMIP5 models appear somewhat weaker, but the magnitude of R95 is largely underestimated in most models.

scholarly journals Validation of CHIRPS Precipitation Estimates over Taiwan at Multiple Timescales

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 254 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jie Hsu ◽  
Wan-Ru Huang ◽  
Pin-Yi Liu ◽  
Xiuzhen Li
Keyword(s):  
Annual Cycle ◽  
Interannual Variation ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Estimation ◽  
Precipitation Estimates ◽  
Precipitation Variation ◽  
Global Precipitation ◽  
Multiple Timescale ◽  
Better Than

The Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), which incorporates satellite imagery and in situ station information, is a new high-resolution long-term precipitation dataset available since 1981. This study aims to understand the performance of the latest version of CHIRPS in depicting the multiple timescale precipitation variation over Taiwan. The analysis is focused on examining whether CHIRPS is better than another satellite precipitation product—the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) final run (hereafter IMERG)—which is known to effectively capture the precipitation variation over Taiwan. We carried out the evaluations made for annual cycle, seasonal cycle, interannual variation, and daily variation during 2001–2019. Our results show that IMERG is slightly better than CHIRPS considering most of the features examined; however, CHIRPS performs better than that of IMERG in representing the (1) magnitude of the annual cycle of monthly precipitation climatology, (2) spatial distribution of the seasonal mean precipitation for all four seasons, (3) quantitative precipitation estimation of the interannual variation of area-averaged winter precipitation in Taiwan, and (4) occurrence frequency of the non-rainy grids in winter. Notably, despite the fact that CHIRPS is not better than IMERG for many examined features, CHIRPS can depict the temporal variation in precipitation over Taiwan on annual, seasonal, and interannual timescales with 95% significance. This highlights the potential use of CHIRPS in studying the multiple timescale variation in precipitation over Taiwan during the years 1981–2000, for which there are no data available in the IMERG database.

scholarly journals Can explicit convection improve modelled dust in summertime West Africa?

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander J. Roberts ◽  
Margaret J. Woodage ◽  
John H. Marsham ◽  
Ellie J. Highwood ◽  
Claire L. Ryder ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Dust Emission ◽  
Bare Soil ◽  
Explicit Representation ◽  
Saharan Dust ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
Soil Fraction

Abstract. Global and regional models have large systematic errors in their modelled dust fields over West Africa. It is well established that cold pool outflows from moist convection (haboobs) can raise over 50 % of the dust over the Sahara and Sahel in summer, but parameterised moist convection tends to give a very poor representation of this in models. Here, we test the hypothesis that an explicit representation of convection improves haboob winds and so may reduce errors in modelled dust fields. The results show that despite varying both grid-spacing and the representation of convection there are only minor changes in dust aerosol optical depth (AOD) and dust mass loading fields between simulations. In all simulations there is an AOD deficit over the observed central Saharan dust maximum and a high bias in AOD along the west coast: both features consistent with many climate (CMIP5) models. Cold pool outflows are present in the explicit simulations and do raise dust. Consistent with this there is an improved diurnal cycle in dust-generating winds with a seasonal peak in evening winds at locations with moist convection that is absent in simulations with parameterised convection. However, the explicit convection does not change the AOD field significantly for several reasons. Firstly, the increased windiness in the evening from haboobs is approximately balanced by a reduction in morning winds associated with the breakdown of the nocturnal low-level jet (LLJ). Secondly, although explicit convection increases the frequency of the strongest winds, these are still weaker than observed, especially close to the observed summertime Saharan dust maximum: this results from the fact that although large mesoscale convective systems (and resultant cold pools) are generated, they have a lower frequency than observed and haboob winds are too weak. Finally, major impacts of the haboobs on winds occur over the Sahel, where, although dust uplift is known to occur in reality, uplift in the simulations is limited by a seasonally constant bare soil fraction in the model, together with soil moisture and clay fractions which are too restrictive of dust emission in seasonally-varying vegetated regions. For future studies, the results demonstrate 1) the improvements in behaviour produced by the explicit representation of convection, 2) the value of simultaneously evaluating both dust and winds and 3) the need to develop parameterisations of the land surface alongside those of dust-generating winds.

scholarly journals Trend in the Co‐Occurrence of Extreme Daily Rainfall in West Africa Since 1950

2018 ◽  
Vol 123 (3) ◽  
pp. 1536-1551 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juliette Blanchet ◽  
Claire Aly ◽  
Théo Vischel ◽  
Gérémy Panthou ◽  
Youssouph Sané ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Daily Rainfall

Objective Identification and Characterisation of Pacific ITCZs in ERA5 and CMIP5 models and their representation in RCMs

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed Homoudi ◽  
Klemens Barfus ◽  
Gesa Bedbur ◽  
Dánnell Quesada-Chacón ◽  
Christian Bernhofer
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Tropical Climate ◽  
Intertropical Convergence Zone ◽  
The State ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Convergence Zone ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Automated Algorithm ◽  
Depth Analysis

<p>The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is recognised as the most crucial feature of the tropical climate producing more than 30% of the global precipitation. Its variability dramatically affects the people living in tropical areas. In the eastern Pacific, a pair of ITCZ, one at each side of the equator, during the boreal spring is evident. It is known as the Double Intertropical Convergence Zone (DITCZ). Generally, the ITCZ in the Pacific is located in the Northern Hemisphere (NH); however, during extreme El Niño events, it can cross the equator, or a wide band of deep convection extending over both hemispheres is to be observed. The DITCZ exists more frequently and with much more strength in General Circulation Models (GCMs), resulting in a spurious bias. The DITCZ bias has been a long-standing tropical bias in climate model simulations since the early beginning. Despite the intense research on the tropical climate and its features, fewer studies investigated the state of the ITCZs through an objective and automated algorithm. Also, much fewer studies have applied such an algorithm to the GCMs output. Unfortunately, far too little attention has been paid to examining how DITCZ bias is transmitted to Regional Climate Models (RCMs). Furthermore, the input variables to the RCM from GCM are prognostic such as wind, temperature and humidity. Since precipitation is not an input, it would be interesting to examine how the representation of ITCZs in the GCMs is unfolded in the RCMs. The method adopted in this study depends on an objective and automated algorithm developed and modified by earlier studies. The algorithm uses layer- and time-averaged winds in the lower troposphere (seven layers between 1000 and 850 hPa), in addition to wet-blub potential temperature, to automatically detect the centre latitude of the ITCZs. Furthermore, it uses GPCP or CMIP5 model precipitation to obtain the extents (i.e. boundaries) of the ITCZs and the precipitation intensities. From reanalysis datasets, the NH ITCZs are found near 8°N, while the Southern Hemisphere (SH) ITCZs are near 5°S. In CMIP5 models, the DITCZ is much stronger and more frequent, and it occurs year-round. Generally, the NH ITCZs are located between 8°N and 10°N while the SH ITCZs are located between 5°S and 10°S. Moreover, models overestimate the tropical precipitation mainly, the centre and full ITCZ intensities. Furthermore, it indicates more vigorous convection in the NH ITCZs than in the SH ITCZs. The study also found that the state of ITCZ in GCMs directly influences the bias in RCM monthly precipitation. However, it depends mainly on the RCM employed. The most affected nations by DITCZ bias are Ecuador and Peru. Quantitative in-depth analysis of precipitation of GCMs and RCMs is still <span>on</span>going.</p>

scholarly journals Interactions between Convection and a Moist Vortex Associated with an Extreme Rainfall Event over Southern West Africa

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 (7) ◽  
pp. 2309-2328 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marlon Maranan ◽  
Andreas H. Fink ◽  
Peter Knippertz ◽  
Sabastine D. Francis ◽  
Aristide B. Akpo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Vortex Formation ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Squall Line ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Event ◽  
Guinea Coast ◽  
Free Atmosphere

Abstract An intense mesoscale convective system (MCS) in the Guinea Coast region caused one of the highest ever recorded daily rainfall amounts at the Nigerian station Abakaliki on 12 June 2016 (223.5 mm). This paper provides a detailed analysis of the meso- and synoptic-scale factors leading to this event, including some so far undocumented dynamical aspects for southern West Africa. The MCS formed over the Darfur Mountains due to diurnal heating, then moved southwestward along a mid- to lower-tropospheric trough, and developed into a classical West African squall line in a highly sheared environment with pronounced midlevel dryness. Strong moisture flux convergence over Nigeria prior to the MCS passage led to extreme values in precipitable water and was caused by the formation of a local, short-lived heat low. According to the pressure tendency equation, the latter resulted from tropospheric warming due to MCS-forced subsidence as well as surface insolation in the resulting almost cloud-free atmosphere. In this extremely moist environment, the MCS strongly intensified and initiated the formation of a lower-tropospheric vortex, which resulted in a deceleration of the MCS and high rainfall accumulation at Abakaliki. Following the vorticity equation, the vortex formation was realized through strong low-level vortex stretching and upper-level vertical vorticity advection related to the MCS, which became “dynamically large” compared to the Rossby radius of deformation. Eventually, moisture supply and lifting associated with the vortex are suggested to promote the longevity of the MCS during the subsequent westward movement along the Guinea Coast.

scholarly journals Evaluation of CMIP5 Model Precipitation Using PERSIANN-CDR

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (9) ◽  
pp. 2313-2330 ◽  
Author(s):  
Phu Nguyen ◽  
Andrea Thorstensen ◽  
Soroosh Sorooshian ◽  
Qian Zhu ◽  
Hoang Tran ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Model Averaging ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Global Evaluation ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Climate Zone ◽  
Precipitation Estimates ◽  
Annual Total

Abstract The purpose of this study is to use the PERSIANN–Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR) dataset to evaluate the ability of 32 CMIP5 models in capturing the behavior of daily extreme precipitation estimates globally. The daily long-term historical global PERSIANN-CDR allows for a global investigation of eight precipitation indices that is unattainable with other datasets. Quantitative comparisons against CPC daily gauge; GPCP One-Degree Daily (GPCP1DD); and TRMM 3B42, version 7 (3B42V7), datasets show the credibility of PERSIANN-CDR to be used as the reference data for global evaluation of CMIP5 models. This work uniquely defines different study regions by partitioning global land areas into 25 groups based on continent and climate zone type. Results show that model performance in warm temperate and equatorial regions in capturing daily extreme precipitation behavior is largely mixed in terms of index RMSE and correlation, suggesting that these regions may benefit from weighted model averaging schemes or model selection as opposed to simple model averaging. The three driest climate regions (snow, polar, and arid) exhibit high correlations and low RMSE values when compared against PERSIANN-CDR estimates, with the exceptions of the cold regions showing an inability to capture the 95th and 99th percentile annual total precipitation characteristics. A comprehensive assessment of each model’s performance in each continent–climate zone defined group is provided as a guide for both model developers to target regions and processes that are not yet fully captured in certain climate types, and for climate model output users to be able to select the models and/or the study areas that may best fit their applications of interest.

scholarly journals Climate Models Lack Jet–Rainfall Coupling over West Africa

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (12) ◽  
pp. 4625-4632 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Whittleston ◽  
S. E. Nicholson ◽  
A. Schlosser ◽  
D. Entekhabi
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
West African ◽  
Strongly Coupled ◽  
Zonal Jets ◽  
Remote Forcing ◽  
African Rainfall ◽  
Jet Variability ◽  
West African Sahel

Changes in large-scale dynamics over West Africa—the strength and position of zonal jets—are a key interim step by which local and remote forcing is communicated into changes in rainfall. This study identifies a key mode of jet variability and demonstrates how it is strongly coupled with rainfall. The approach provides a quantitative framework to assess jet–rainfall coupling and a useful tool to investigate the concerning spread in CMIP5 rainfall projections over the West African Sahel. It is shown that many CMIP5 simulations fail to capture this coupling, indicating a fundamental limitation in their ability to predict future rainfall conditions. The results demonstrate that West African rainfall in the coming CMIP6 ensemble should be interpreted with caution; key atmospheric processes that deliver rainfall must be validated before conducting detailed analysis on rainfall.

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