scholarly journals A Hydrodynamical Atmosphere/Ocean Coupled Modeling System for Multiple Tropical Cyclones

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 869
Author(s):  
Ghassan J. Alaka ◽  
Dmitry Sheinin ◽  
Biju Thomas ◽  
Lew Gramer ◽  
Zhan Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Intensity Change ◽  
Coupling Scheme ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
Improvement Program ◽  
Surface Temperatures ◽  
Skill Scores ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
The Impact

The goal of this paper is to introduce a new multi-storm atmosphere/ocean coupling scheme that was implemented and tested in the Basin-Scale Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF-B) model. HWRF-B, an experimental model developed at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and supported by the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program, is configured with multiple storm-following nested domains to produce high-resolution predictions for several tropical cyclones (TCs) within the same forecast integration. The new coupling scheme parallelizes atmosphere/ocean interactions for each nested domain in HWRF-B, and it may be applied to any atmosphere/ocean coupled system. TC forecasts from this new hydrodynamical modeling system were produced in the North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific from 2017–2019. The performance of HWRF-B was evaluated, including forecasts of TC track, intensity, structure (e.g., surface wind radii), and intensity change, and simulated sea-surface temperatures were compared with satellite observations. Median forecast skill scores showed significant improvement over the operational HWRF at most forecast lead times for track, intensity, and structure. Sea-surface temperatures cooled by 1–8 °C for the five HWRF-B case studies, demonstrating the utility of the model to study the impact of the ocean on TC intensity forecasting. These results show the value of a multi-storm modeling system and provide confidence that the multi-storm coupling scheme was implemented correctly. Future TC models within NOAA, especially the Unified Forecast System’s Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System, would benefit from the multi-storm coupling scheme whose utility and performance are demonstrated in HWRF-B here.

scholarly journals A Two-Way Relationship Between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans

Eos ◽  
2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brendan Bane
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Eastern Pacific ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
Surface Temperatures

Researchers have uncovered a new connection between sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and tropical cyclones in the eastern Pacific that could improve accuracies of future cyclone forecasts.

Sea-surface temperatures and tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin

2006 ◽  
Vol 33 (9) ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick J. Michaels ◽  
Paul C. Knappenberger ◽  
Robert E. Davis
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
Atlantic Basin ◽  
Surface Temperatures

Decadal variability of the East Asian summer jet and its relationship to sea surface temperatures

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew Patterson ◽  
Tim Woollings ◽  
Chris O'Reilly ◽  
Antje Weisheimer
Keyword(s):  
Decadal Variability ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Turbulent Heat Flux ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Turbulent Heat ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
Surface Temperatures ◽  
Asian Summer ◽  
The Impact

<p>Variability of the East Asian summer jet stream (EAJ) has a significant impact on the climate of East Asia, primarily through its modulation of East Asian precipitation. In recent decades the impact of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Indian and Pacific oceans on the EAJ have been studied in considerable detail, however much less is known about the drivers of EAJ variability on decadal or multi-decadal timescales. Investigating this problem is made more challenging by the temporal limitations of reanalysis datasets.</p><p>In order to establish whether SSTs can provide a source of skill in predicting decadal variations of the EAJ, we analyse long pre-industrial control runs of the CMIP6 models. One issue with studying coupled model runs is that it is often unclear whether particular SST anomalies are forcing the atmosphere, and thus can provide a meaningful source of skill, or whether they are merely responding to local atmospheric anomalies. We address this issue by combining SST and turbulent heat flux information to indicate the direction of the forcing.</p>

scholarly journals Assessing the impact of sea surface temperatures on a simulated medicane using ensemble simulations

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 941-955 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robin Noyelle ◽  
Uwe Ulbrich ◽  
Nico Becker ◽  
Edmund P. Meredith
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Western Mediterranean ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Tyrrhenian Sea ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
Surface Temperatures ◽  
Western Mediterranean Basin ◽  
A Minor ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The sensitivity of the October 1996 Medicane in the western Mediterranean basin to sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is investigated with a regional climate model via ensemble sensitivity simulations. For 11 SST states, ranging from −4 K below to +6 K above the observed SST field (in 1 K steps), 24-member ensembles of the medicane are simulated. By using a modified phase space diagram and a simple compositing method, it is shown that the SST state has a minor influence on the tracks of the cyclones but a strong influence on their intensities. Increased SSTs lead to greater probabilities of tropical transitions, to stronger lower- and upper-level warm cores and to lower pressure minima. The tropical transition occurs sooner and lasts longer, which enables a greater number of transitioning cyclones to survive landfall over Sardinia and re-intensify in the Tyrrhenian Sea. The results demonstrate that SSTs influence the intensity of fluxes from the sea, which leads to greater convective activity before the storms reach their maturity. These results suggest that the processes at steady state for medicanes are very similar to tropical cyclones.

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