scholarly journals Predicting Major Storm Surge Levels

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 756
Author(s):  
Robert Mendelsohn
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
East Coast ◽  
The United States ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Southeast United States ◽  
Tidal Data ◽  
Major Hurricane

The National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA) calculates the surge probability distribution along the coast from their long-term tidal stations. This process is sufficient for predicting the surge from common storms but tends to underestimate large surges. Across 23 long-term tidal stations along the East Coast of the United States, 100-year surges were observed 49 times, although they should have occurred only 23 times. We hypothesize that these 100-year surges are not the tail outcome from common storms but are actually caused by major hurricanes. Matching these 100-year surges with major hurricanes revealed that major hurricanes caused 43 of the 49 surges. We consequently suggest a revised approach to estimating the surge probability distribution. We used tidal data to estimate the probability of common surges but analyzed major hurricane surges separately, using the return rate of major hurricanes and the observed surge from each major hurricane to predict hurricane surges. The revision reveals that expected coastal flooding damage is higher than we thought, especially in the southeast United States.

scholarly journals Tropical cyclone storm surge probabilities for the east coast of the United States: A cyclone-based perspective

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katherine L. Towey ◽  
James F. Booth ◽  
Alejandra Rodriguez Enriquez ◽  
Thomas Wahl
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
East Coast ◽  
Propagation Speed ◽  
The United States ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Return Levels ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Linear Correlations ◽  
Variance Explained

Abstract. To improve our understanding of the influence of tropical cyclones (TCs) on coastal flooding, the relationships between storm surge and TC characteristics are analyzed for the east coast of the United States. Using observational data, the statistical dependencies of storm surge on TCs are examined for these characteristics: distance from TC center, TC intensity, track path angle, and propagation speed. Statistically significant but weak linear correlations are found for nearly all sites. At each location, storm surge is influenced differently by these characteristics, with some locations more strongly influenced by TC intensity and others by the distance from the TC center. The correlation for individual and combined TC characteristics increases when conditional sorting is applied to isolate strong TCs close to a location, though the fraction of surge variance explained is never greater than 60 %. The probabilities of TCs generating surge exceeding specific return levels (RLs) are then analyzed for TCs that pass within 500 km of a location, where between 7 % and 26 % of TCs were found to cause surge exceeding the 0.5-yr RL. If only the closest and strongest TCs are considered, the percentage of TCs that generate surge exceeding the 0.5-yr RL is between 30 % and 50 % at sites north of Sewell’s Point, VA, and over 70 % at almost all sites south of Charleston, SC. Overall, this analysis demonstrates that no single TC characteristic dictates how much surge will be generated and offers a unique perspective on surge probabilities that is based on all TCs rather than focusing only on those that cause extreme surge.

scholarly journals Coastal Resilience Against Storm Surge from Tropical Cyclones

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 725
Author(s):  
Robert Mendelsohn ◽  
Liang Zheng
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
The United States ◽  
Atlantic Seaboard ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
Coastal Resilience

It is well known that seawalls are effective at stopping common storm surges in urban areas. This paper examines whether seawalls should be built to withstand the storm surge from a major tropical cyclone. We estimate the extra cost of building the wall tall enough to stop such surges and the extra flood benefit of this additional height. We estimate the surge probability distribution from six tidal stations spread along the Atlantic seaboard of the United States. We then measure how valuable the vulnerable buildings behind a 100 m wall must be to justify such a tall wall at each site. Combining information about the probability distribution of storm surge, the average elevation of protected buildings, and the damage rate at each building, we find that the value of protected buildings behind this 100 m wall must be in the hundreds of millions to justify the wall. We also examine the additional flood benefit and cost of protecting a km2 of land in nearby cities at each site. The density of buildings in coastal cities in the United States are generally more than an order of magnitude too low to justify seawalls this high. Seawalls are effective, but not at stopping the surge damage from major tropical cyclones.

United States East Coast Storm Surge and Cyclone track Characteristics: Differences and Similarities for Extratropical Cyclones and Hurricanes

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Booth ◽  
Harald Rieder
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
East Coast ◽  
Propagation Speed ◽  
The United States ◽  
Return Level ◽  
Extratropical Cyclones ◽  
Storm Events ◽  
Cyclone Track ◽  
The Us

<p>Storm surge on the east coast of the United States can be generated by hurricanes or extratropical cyclones (ETCs). Understanding the differences in the impacts of these two phenomena is important for improving strategies to mitigate the damage created. As such, this work examines the magnitude, spatial footprint, and paths of hurricanes and ETCs that caused strong surge along the east coast of the US. Lagrangian cyclone track information, for hurricanes and ETCs, is used to associate surge events with individual storms. First, hurricane influence is examined using ranked surged events per site. The fraction of hurricanes among storms associated with surge decreases from 20-60% for the top 10 events to 10-30% for the top 50 events, and a clear latitudinal gradient of hurricane influence emerges for larger sets of events. Second, surge on larger spatial domains is examined by focusing on storms that cause exceedance of the probabilistic 1-year surge return level at multiple stations. Results show that if the strongest events, in terms of surge amplitude and spatial extent, are considered hurricanes are most likely to create the hazards. However, when slightly less strong events that still impact multiple areas during the storm life cycle are considered, the relative importance of hurricanes shrinks as that of ETCs grows.</p><p>Next we examine the details of the tracks of the storm events that cause strong surge events. We find that paths for ETCs causing multi-site surge at individual segments of the US east coast pass very close to the regions of impact. We find that the paths of hurricanes that cause the strongest multi-site surge are often influenced by nearby large-scale circulation patterns. We also examine the relationship between the storm surge time-evolution and the propagation speed of the low-pressure center of the storm events. For extratropical cyclones, slower moving events have weaker cyclonic winds which offsets the enhanced surge associated with the longer duration of the cyclone influence on surge. For hurricanes, there is less correlation between propagation speed and cyclonic wind motion, meaning slower moving events can still generate very strong winds. However, slow moving events still don’t cause the absolute largest events.</p><p> </p>

Strong Aerosol Effects on Cloud Amount Based on Long‐Term Satellite Observations Over the East Coast of the United States

2021 ◽  
Vol 48 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Cao ◽  
Minghuai Wang ◽  
Daniel Rosenfeld ◽  
Yannian Zhu ◽  
Yuan Liang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
East Coast ◽  
Cloud Amount ◽  
The United States ◽  
Satellite Observations ◽  
Aerosol Effects

Strong aerosol effects on cloud amount based on long-term satellite observations over the East Coast of the United States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Cao ◽  
Minghuai Wang ◽  
Daniel Rosenfeld ◽  
Yannian Zhu ◽  
Yuan Liang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Multivariate Regression ◽  
East Coast ◽  
Cloud Amount ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cloud Fraction ◽  
Multivariate Regression Model ◽  
Aerosol Effects

<p>Here we use 16-year satellite and reanalysis data in combination with a multivariate regression model to investigate how aerosols affect cloud fraction (CF) over the East Coast of the United States. Cloud droplet number concentrations (N<sub>d</sub>), cloud geometrical thickness, lower tropospheric stability, and relative humidity at 950 hPa (RH<sub>950</sub>) are identified as major cloud controlling parameters that explain 97% of the variability in CF. N<sub>d</sub> is shown to play an important role in regulating the dependence of cloud fraction on RH<sub>950</sub>. The observed annual-mean CF shows no significant trend due to the cancelation from the opposite trends in N<sub>d</sub> and RH<sub>950</sub>. The multivariate regression model revealed that the decline in N<sub>d</sub> alone would lead to a about 20% relative decline in CF. Our results indicate the significant aerosol effects on CF and suggest the need to account for pollution-induced cloud changes in quantifying cloud feedback based on long-term observations.</p>

Speech-Language Pathology in the Peace Corps: Necessity and Sustainability

2012 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 11-18
Author(s):  
Melissa A. Pierce
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Special Education ◽  
Peace Corps ◽  
People With Disabilities ◽  
Communication Disorders ◽  
The United States ◽  
Speech Language Pathology ◽  
Speech Language Pathologists ◽  
Language Pathology

In countries other than the United States, the study and practice of speech-language pathology is little known or nonexistent. Recognition of professionals in the field is minimal. Speech-language pathologists in countries where speech-language pathology is a widely recognized and respected profession often seek to share their expertise in places where little support is available for individuals with communication disorders. The Peace Corps offers a unique, long-term volunteer opportunity to people with a variety of backgrounds, including speech-language pathologists. Though Peace Corps programs do not specifically focus on speech-language pathology, many are easily adapted to the profession because they support populations of people with disabilities. This article describes how the needs of local children with communication disorders are readily addressed by a Special Education Peace Corps volunteer.

Mafias on the Move

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Federico Varese
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
New York ◽  
Organized Crime ◽  
The United States ◽  
The West ◽  
Market Expansion ◽  
The North ◽  
Economic Transformations ◽  
At Will

Organized crime is spreading like a global virus as mobs take advantage of open borders to establish local franchises at will. That at least is the fear, inspired by stories of Russian mobsters in New York, Chinese triads in London, and Italian mafias throughout the West. As this book explains, the truth is more complicated. The author has spent years researching mafia groups in Italy, Russia, the United States, and China, and argues that mafiosi often find themselves abroad against their will, rather than through a strategic plan to colonize new territories. Once there, they do not always succeed in establishing themselves. The book spells out the conditions that lead to their long-term success, namely sudden market expansion that is neither exploited by local rivals nor blocked by authorities. Ultimately the inability of the state to govern economic transformations gives mafias their opportunity. In a series of matched comparisons, the book charts the attempts of the Calabrese 'Ndrangheta to move to the north of Italy, and shows how the Sicilian mafia expanded to early twentieth-century New York, but failed around the same time to find a niche in Argentina. The book explains why the Russian mafia failed to penetrate Rome but succeeded in Hungary. A pioneering chapter on China examines the challenges that triads from Taiwan and Hong Kong find in branching out to the mainland. This book is both a compelling read and a sober assessment of the risks posed by globalization and immigration for the spread of mafias.

Leaded Aviation Fuel May Present Long-Term Effects on Campus Life from the Adjacent Albert Whitted Airport

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph Matthews ◽  
Madhu Pandey
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Particulate Matter ◽  
The United States ◽  
Aviation Fuel ◽  
University Campus ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Aviation Gasoline ◽  
Suspended Particulate ◽  
Descent Line

Propeller planes and small engine aircraft around the United States, legally utilize leaded aviation gasoline. The purpose of this experiment was to collect suspended particulate matter from a university campus, directly below an airport’s arriving flight path’s descent line, and to analyze lead content suspended in the air. Two collection sets of three separate samples were collected on six separate days, one set in July of 2018 and the second set in January 2019.

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