scholarly journals Change of the Rainfall Seasonality Over Central Peruvian Andes: Onset, End, Duration and Its Relationship With Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation

Climate ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucy Giráldez ◽  
Yamina Silva ◽  
Ricardo Zubieta ◽  
Juan Sulca

Changes of the onset dates, end dates, and duration of the rainy season over central Peruvian Andes (Mantaro river basin, MRB) could severely affect water resources management and the main economic activities (e.g., rainfed agriculture, raising cattle, among others). Nonetheless, these changes have not been documented for the Tropical Andes. To asses that, we used daily datasets of observed rainfall during the 1965–2013 period. For this period, the average onset (end) date of the rainy season over the MRB occurs in the pentad 17 (19–23 September) [pentad 57 (7–11 April)]. The duration of the rainy season mainly is modulated by the onset dates due to it has higher variability than end dates. There is a reduction of 3 days/decade in the duration of wet season over the MRB for the last four decades due to the delay of the onset days. Furthermore, El Niño favors late-onset and early end of the rainy season, while La Niña favors early onset and late end of the rainy season in the MRB. Onset dates are related to the propagation of the convective region of the South American Monsoon System (SAMS), from the Caribbean region toward the central Amazon basin. Early (late)-onset days are associated with a southward (northward) shift of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and weak (strong) convection over equatorial Atlantic that induces the southernmost propagation (eastward shift) of the SAMS.

Author(s):  
Juan Sulca ◽  
Mathias Vuille ◽  
Oliver Elison Timm ◽  
Bo Dong ◽  
Ricardo Zubieta

AbstractPrecipitation is one of the most difficult variables to estimate using large-scale predictors. Over South America (SA), this task is even more challenging, given the complex topography of the Andes. Empirical-Statistical Downscaling (ESD) models can be used for this purpose, but such models, applicable for all of SA, have not yet been developed. To address this issue, we construct an ESD model based on multiple linear regression techniques for the period 1982-2016 that is based on large-scale circulation indices representing tropical Pacific, Atlantic, and South American climate variability, to estimate austral summer (DJF) precipitation over SA.Statistical analyses show that the ESD model can reproduce observed precipitation anomalies over the tropical Andes (Ecuador, Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia), the eastern equatorial Amazon basin, and the central part of the western Argentinian Andes. On a smaller scale, the ESD model also shows good results over the western Cordillera of the Peruvian Andes.The ESD model reproduces anomalously dry conditions over the eastern equatorial Amazon and the wet conditions over Southeastern South America (SESA) during the three extreme El Niño’s 1982/83, 1997/98, and 2015/16. However, it overestimates the observed intensities over SESA. For the central Peruvian Andes as a case study, results further show that the ESD model can correctly reproduce DJF precipitation anomalies over the entire Mantaro basin during the three extreme El ñ episodes.Moreover, multiple experiments with varying predictor combinations of the ESD model corroborate the hypothesis that the interaction between the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and the equatorial Atlantic Ocean provoked the Amazon drought in 2015/16.


2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (13) ◽  
pp. 6041-6065 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. O. Andreae ◽  
P. Artaxo ◽  
V. Beck ◽  
M. Bela ◽  
S. Freitas ◽  
...  

Abstract. We present the results of airborne measurements of carbon monoxide (CO) and aerosol particle number concentration (CN) made during the Balanço Atmosférico Regional de Carbono na Amazônia (BARCA) program. The primary goal of BARCA is to address the question of basin-scale sources and sinks of CO2 and other atmospheric carbon species, a central issue of the Large-scale Biosphere-Atmosphere (LBA) program. The experiment consisted of two aircraft campaigns during November–December 2008 (BARCA-A) and May–June 2009 (BARCA-B), which covered the altitude range from the surface up to about 4500 m, and spanned most of the Amazon Basin. Based on meteorological analysis and measurements of the tracer, SF6, we found that airmasses over the Amazon Basin during the late dry season (BARCA-A, November 2008) originated predominantly from the Southern Hemisphere, while during the late wet season (BARCA-B, May 2009) low-level airmasses were dominated by northern-hemispheric inflow and mid-tropospheric airmasses were of mixed origin. In BARCA-A we found strong influence of biomass burning emissions on the composition of the atmosphere over much of the Amazon Basin, with CO enhancements up to 300 ppb and CN concentrations approaching 10 000 cm−3; the highest values were in the southern part of the Basin at altitudes of 1–3 km. The ΔCN/ΔCO ratios were diagnostic for biomass burning emissions, and were lower in aged than in fresh smoke. Fresh emissions indicated CO/CO2 and CN/CO emission ratios in good agreement with previous work, but our results also highlight the need to consider the residual smoldering combustion that takes place after the active flaming phase of deforestation fires. During the late wet season, in contrast, there was little evidence for a significant presence of biomass smoke. Low CN concentrations (300–500 cm−3) prevailed basinwide, and CO mixing ratios were enhanced by only ~10 ppb above the mixing line between Northern and Southern Hemisphere air. There was no detectable trend in CO with distance from the coast, but there was a small enhancement of CO in the boundary layer suggesting diffuse biogenic sources from photochemical degradation of biogenic volatile organic compounds or direct biological emission. Simulations of CO distributions during BARCA-A using a range of models yielded general agreement in spatial distribution and confirm the important contribution from biomass burning emissions, but the models evidence some systematic quantitative differences compared to observed CO concentrations. These mismatches appear to be related to problems with the accuracy of the global background fields, the role of vertical transport and biomass smoke injection height, the choice of model resolution, and reliability and temporal resolution of the emissions data base.


Author(s):  
Jose A. Marengo ◽  
Carlos A. Nobre

The Amazon region is of particular interest because it represents a large source of heat in the tropics and has been shown to have a significant impact on extratropical circulation, and it is Earth’s largest and most intense land-based convective center. During the Southern Hemisphere summer when convection is best developed, the Amazon basin is one of the wettest regions on Earth. Amazonia is of course not isolated from the rest of the world, and a global perspective is needed to understand the nature and causes of climatological anomalies in Amazonia and how they feed back to influence the global climate system. The Amazon River system is the single, largest source of freshwater on Earth. The flow regime of this river system is relatively unimpacted by humans (Vörösmarty et al. 1997 a, b) and is subject to interannual variability in tropical precipitation that ultimately is translated into large variations in downstream hydrographs (Marengo et al. 1998a, Vörösmarty et al. 1996, Richey et al. 1989a, b). The recycling of local evaporation and precipitation by the forest accounts for a sizable portion of the regional water budget (Nobre et al. 1991, Eltahir 1996), and as large areas of the basin are subject to active deforestation there is grave concern about how such land surface disruptions may affect the water cycle in the tropics (see reviews in Lean et al. 1996). Previous studies have emphasized either how large-scale atmospheric circulation or land surface conditions can directly control the seasonal changes in rainfall producing mechanisms. Studies invoking controls of convection and rainfall by large-scale circulation emphasize the relationship between the establishment of upper-tropospheric circulation over Bolivia and moisture transport from the Atlantic ocean for initiation of the wet season and its intensity (see reviews in Marengo et al. 1999). On the other hand, Eltahir and Pal (1996) have shown that Amazon convection is closely related to land surface humidity and temperature, while Fu et al. (1999) indicate that the wet season in the Amazon basin is controlled by both changes in land surface temperature and the sea surface temperature (SST) in the adjacent oceans, depending if the region is north-equatorial or southern Amazonia.


2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (5) ◽  
pp. 1845-1859 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ignacio A. Jara ◽  
Antonio Maldonado ◽  
Leticia González ◽  
Armand Hernández ◽  
Alberto Sáez ◽  
...  

Abstract. Modern precipitation anomalies in the Altiplano, South America, are closely linked to the strength of the South American summer monsoon (SASM), which is influenced by large-scale climate features sourced in the tropics such as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, the timing, direction, and spatial extent of precipitation changes prior to the instrumental period are still largely unknown, preventing a better understanding of the long-term drivers of the SASM and their effects over the Altiplano. Here we present a detailed pollen reconstruction from a sedimentary sequence covering the period between 4500 and 1000 cal yr BP in Lago Chungará (18∘ S; 4570 m a.s.l.), a high-elevation lake on the southwestern margin of the Altiplano where precipitation is delivered almost exclusively during the mature phase of the SASM over the austral summer. We distinguish three well-defined centennial-scale anomalies, with dry conditions between 4100–3300 and 1600–1000 cal yr BP and a conspicuous humid interval between 2400 and 1600 cal yr BP, which resulted from the weakening and strengthening of the SASM, respectively. Comparisons with other climate reconstructions from the Altiplano, the Atacama Desert, the tropical Andes, and the southwestern Atlantic coast reveal that – unlike modern climatological controls – past precipitation anomalies at Lago Chungará were largely decoupled from north–south shifts in the ITCZ and ENSO. A regionally coherent pattern of centennial-scale SASM variations and a significant latitudinal gradient in precipitation responses suggest the contribution of an extratropical moisture source for the SASM, with significant effects on precipitation variability in the southern Altiplano.


2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (24) ◽  
pp. 9941-9964 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elisa T. Sena ◽  
M. A. F. Silva Dias ◽  
L. M. V. Carvalho ◽  
P. L. Silva Dias

This study investigates the variability of the seasonal cycle of convection in the Brazilian Amazon basin during the last decades, and examines physical mechanisms that potentially trigger these modifications. A new methodology to evaluate the onset and length of the rainy season using long-term cloud fraction observations from geostationary satellites is proposed and the connection between cloud cycle variability, surface properties, and thermodynamic and dynamic conditions is explored. The results show that cloud cover has significantly decreased over the last decades. The decline in cloudiness is steeper at 1200 UTC (0800 LT), when a trend of up to −6% decade−1 is observed over the central and eastern Amazon. High-cloud-cover reduction is the major contributor to the observed decline in total cloud fraction. Delayed onsets and a reduction of up to 4 days yr−1 in the northern and central Amazon wet-season length are observed. Correlation analyses indicate that the El Niño phenomenon affects the interannual variability of cloudiness in the Amazon, leading to delayed onset and early demise of the rainy season. The tropical South Atlantic, the Pacific warm pool, and the North Atlantic tripole also play a small, but significant, role in the Amazon’s cloudiness variability. The decrease in cloudiness over the Amazon basin reduces the amount of solar radiation reflected back to space while increasing irradiance at the surface. This local warming alters surface heat fluxes and the atmospheric thermodynamic profile, further affecting cloud development. The strong tendencies reported here indicate a significant shift in the Amazonian hydroclimate during the last few decades.


2006 ◽  
Vol 6 (10) ◽  
pp. 2911-2925 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Chand ◽  
P. Guyon ◽  
P. Artaxo ◽  
O. Schmid ◽  
G. P. Frank ◽  
...  

Abstract. As part of the Large Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia – Smoke, Aerosols, Clouds, Rainfall and Climate (LBA-SMOCC) campaign, detailed surface and airborne aerosol measurements were performed over the Amazon Basin during the dry to wet season from 16 September to 14 November 2002. Optical and physical properties of aerosols at the surface, and in the boundary layer (BL) and free troposphere (FT) during the dry season are discussed in this article. Carbon monoxide (CO) is used as a tracer for biomass burning emissions. At the surface, good correlation among the light scattering coefficient (σs at 545 nm), PM2.5, and CO indicates that biomass burning is the main source of aerosols. Accumulation of haze during some of the large-scale biomass burning events led to high PM2.5 (225 μg m−3), σs (1435 Mm−1), aerosol optical depth at 500 nm (3.0), and CO (3000 ppb). A few rainy episodes reduced the PM2.5, number concentration (CN) and CO concentration by two orders of magnitude. The correlation analysis between σs and aerosol optical thickness shows that most of the optically active aerosols are confined to a layer with a scale height of 1617 m during the burning season. This is confirmed by aircraft profiles. The average mass scattering and absorption efficiencies (545 nm) for small particles (diameter Dp<1.5 μm) at surface level are found to be 5.0 and 0.33 m2 g−1, respectively, when relating the aerosol optical properties to PM2.5 aerosols. The observed mean single scattering albedo (ωo at 545 nm) for submicron aerosols at the surface is 0.92±0.02. The light scattering by particles (Δσs/Δ CN) increase 2–10 times from the surface to the FT, most probably due to the combined affects of coagulation and condensation.


2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 4373-4406 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Chand ◽  
P. Guyon ◽  
P. Artaxo ◽  
O. Schmid ◽  
G. P. Frank ◽  
...  

Abstract. As part of the Large Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia – Smoke, Aerosols, Clouds, Rainfall and Climate (LBA-SMOCC) campaign, detailed surface and airborne aerosol measurements were performed over the Amazon Basin during the dry to wet season from 16 September to 14 November 2002. Optical and physical properties of aerosols at the surface, boundary layer (BL) and free troposphere (FT) during the dry season are discussed in this article. Carbon monoxide (CO) is used as a tracer for biomass burning emissions. At the surface, good correlation among the light scattering coefficient (σs at 550 nm), PM2.5, and CO indicates that biomass burning is the main source of aerosols. Accumulation of haze during some of the large-scale biomass burning events led to high mass loadings (PM2.5=200 µgm−3), σs (1400 Mm−1), aerosol optical depth at 500 nm (3.0), and CO (3000 ppb). A few rainy episodes reduced the aerosol mass loading, number concentration (CN) and CO concentration by two orders of magnitude. The correlation analysis between σs and aerosol optical thickness shows that most of the optically active aerosols are confined to a layer with a scale height of 1660 m during the burning season. The average mass scattering and absorption efficiencies (532 nm) for small particles (diameter Dp<1.5 µm) at surface level are found to be 5.3 and 0.42 m2 g−1, respectively, when relating the aerosol optical properties to PM2.5 aerosols. The observed mean single scattering albedo (ωo at ~540 nm) for submicron aerosols at the surface (0.92±0.02) is significantly higher than reported previously. The scattering efficiency (dσs/dCN) of particles increases 2–10 times from the surface to the FT, most probably due to the combined affects of coagulation and condensation.


2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-117 ◽  
Author(s):  
Viviane B. S. Silva ◽  
Vernon E. Kousky ◽  
R. Wayne Higgins

Abstract In this study, the authors document the extent to which the precipitation statistics of the new CFS reanalysis (CFSR) represent an improvement over the earlier reanalyses: the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis (R1) and the NCEP–DOE Second Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP-II) reanalysis (R2). An intercomparison between the CFSR, R1, R2, and observations over South America was made for the period 1979–2006. The CFSR shows notable improvements in the large-scale precipitation patterns compared with the previous reanalyses (R1 and R2). In spite of these improvements, the CFSR has substantial biases in intensity and frequency of occurrence of rainfall events. Over west-central Brazil, the core region of the South American monsoon system (SAMS), the CFSR displays a dry bias during the onset phase of the SAMS wet season and a wet bias during the peak and decay phases of the SAMS wet season. The CFSR also displays a dry bias along the South American coast near the mouth of the Amazon and along the east coast of northeastern Brazil. A wet bias exists in all seasons over southeast Brazil and over the Andes Mountains.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sly Wongchuig Correa ◽  
Jhan Carlo Espinoza ◽  
Hans Segura ◽  
Thomas Condom ◽  
Clémentine Junquas

&lt;p&gt;Large evidences support the strong impacts on rainfall amount and the increasing of dry-season length on the Amazonian forest. All of these effects are usually attributed to large scale atmospheric circulation and to land cover changes as part of anthropogenic effects. In this research we assess statistical and modeling approaches to investigate the interaction between changes in forest cover and hydroclimate processes on a regional and local scale.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Henceforth, the deforestation areas and climatic indexes for the southern Amazon basin (south of 14&amp;#176;S) were evaluated. The deforestation map was estimated for the 1992-2018 period, based on global land cover maps at 300 m of spatial resolution produced by the European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initiative (CCI) by using several remote sensing datasets. The CHIRPS rainfall dataset (P) for the 1981-2018 period was used to estimate the dry day frequency (DDF, P&lt;1mm) and the wet day frequency (WDF, P&gt;10mm). In addition, the mean actual seasonal evapotranspiration (AET) was GLEAM and ET-Amazon evapotranspiration datasets for the 1980-2018 and 2003-2013 periods respectively. In order to determine the local and the regional climatic effect for each pixel of the climatic index (DDF, WDF and AET), the deforestation fraction was estimated considering different spatial radii of influence (20 to 50 km).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The first results indicate a particular pattern in the southern Bolivian Amazon where two groups of areas were identified, considering the common period of analysis (1992-2018). One of them shows a significant relationship between increasing trend of DDF and decreasing trend of WDF while deforestation fraction is high, what mainly occurs during the wet season. In addition, this region is clearly placed in areas with values of deforestation fraction above ~30%, a closest value to the usually estimated Amazon Tipping Point (~40%). Below this value, the second group is also located in regions with positive trends of DDF and negative trends of WDF. This region has probably a strongest link with the large-scale climate.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Considering these preliminary results, the statistical approaches developed in this research could give some insights about the interactions between forest change and the regional hydro climatology, which might improve the understanding of this interaction based on large-scale hydrological modeling.&lt;/p&gt;


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