scholarly journals Excess Mortality in England during the 2019 Summer Heatwaves

Climate ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 14
Author(s):  
Natasha Rustemeyer ◽  
Mark Howells

There is increasing evidence that rising temperatures and heatwaves in the United Kingdom are associated with an increase in heat-related mortality. However, the Public Health England (PHE) Heatwave mortality monitoring reports, which use provisional death registrations to estimate heat-related mortality in England during heatwaves, have not yet been evaluated. This study aims to retrospectively quantify the impact of heatwaves on mortality during the 2019 summer period using daily death occurrences. Second, using the same method, it quantifies the heat-related mortality for the 2018 and 2017 heatwave periods. Last, it compares the results to the estimated excess deaths for the same period in the PHE Heatwave mortality monitoring reports. The number of cumulative excess deaths during the summer 2019 heatwaves were minimal (161) and were substantially lower than during the summer 2018 heatwaves (1700 deaths) and summer 2017 heatwaves (1489 deaths). All findings were at variance with the PHE Heatwave mortality monitoring reports which estimated cumulative excess deaths to be 892, 863 and 778 during the heatwave periods of 2019, 2018 and 2017, respectively. Issues are identified in the use of provisional death registrations for mortality monitoring and the reduced reliability of the Office for National Statistics (ONS) daily death occurrences database before 2019. These findings may identify more reliable ways to monitor heat mortality during heatwaves in the future.

Author(s):  
Natasha Rustemeyer ◽  
Mark Howells

There is increasing evidence that rising temperatures and heatwaves in the United Kingdom are associated with an increase in heat-related mortality. This study aims to retrospectively quantify the impact of heatwaves on mortality during the 2019 summer period using daily death occurrences. Second, it compares excess mortality during the 2019 heatwaves to excess mortality during the 2018 and 2017 heatwave periods. Lastly, it compares the excess mortality in the 2017-2019 heatwaves to the estimated excess deaths for the same period in the Public Health England (PHE) Heatwave mortality monitoring Reports. The cumulative number of excess deaths during the summer 2019 heatwaves were minimal and were substantially lower than during the summer 2018 heatwaves (1,700 deaths) and summer 2017 heatwaves (1,489 deaths). All findings were at variance with the PHE Heatwave mortality monitoring reports which estimated cumulative excess deaths to be 892, 863 and 778 during the summer period of 2019, 2018 and 2017 respectively using provisional death registrations. Issues have been identified in the use of provisional death registrations for mortality monitoring and the reduced reliability of the ONS daily death occurrence database before 2019. These findings may identify more reliable ways to monitor heat mortality during heatwaves in the future.


Author(s):  
Paul Craig

This chapter draws on the six dimensions of public law covered in the book: theory, institutions and accountability, constitutions and rights, process and procedure, legislation, and case law. It links discussion of these dimensions, by considering how they have been affected by Brexit. The chapter is not concerned with the contending arguments for leaving or remaining in the European Union. The focus is on the way in which Brexit has ‘pressure-tested’ the public law regime in the United Kingdom and the European Union. The six dimensions of public law that are discussed in the preceding chapters form the architectural frame through which the impact of Brexit on the public law regimes is assessed in both the United Kingdom and the European Union.


2013 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julia M. Pearce ◽  
G. James Rubin ◽  
Richard Amlôt ◽  
Simon Wessely ◽  
M. Brooke Rogers

AbstractObjectiveThe aim of this study was to enhance public health preparedness for incidents that involve the large-scale release of a hazardous substance by examining factors likely to influence public responses to official guidance on how to limit their exposure.MethodsAn online demographically representative survey was conducted in the United Kingdom (n = 601) and Poland (n = 602) to test the strength of association of trust in authorities, anxiety, threat, and coping appraisals with the intention to comply with advice to shelter in place following a hypothetical chemical spill. The impact of ease of compliance and style of message presentation were also examined.ResultsParticipants were more likely to comply if at home when the incident happened, but message presentation had little impact. Coping appraisals and trust were key predictors of compliance, but threat appraisals were associated with noncompliance. Anxiety was seen to promote behavioral change. UK participants were more likely to comply than Polish participants.ConclusionsSuccessful crisis communications during an emergency should aim to influence perceptions regarding the efficacy of recommended behaviors, the difficulties people may have in following advice, and perceptions about the cost of following recommended behaviors. Generic principles of crisis communication may need adaptation for national contexts. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2013;7:65-74)


2020 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 168 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael T. C. Poon ◽  
Paul M. Brennan ◽  
Kai Jin ◽  
Jonine D. Figueroa ◽  
Cathie L. M. Sudlow

Background: We aimed to describe trends of excess mortality in the United Kingdom (UK) stratified by nation and cause of death, and to develop an online tool for reporting the most up to date data on excess mortality Methods: Population statistics agencies in the UK including the Office for National Statistics (ONS), National Records of Scotland (NRS), and Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) publish weekly mortality data. We used mortality data up to 22nd May in the ONS and the NISRA and 24th May in the NRS. The main outcome measures were crude mortality for non-COVID deaths (where there is no mention of COVID-19 on the death certificate) calculated, and excess mortality defined as difference between observed mortality and expected average of mortality from previous 5 years. Results: There were 56,961 excess deaths, of which 8,986 were non-COVID excess deaths. England had the highest number of excess deaths per 100,000 population (85) and Northern Ireland the lowest (34). Non-COVID mortality increased from 23rd March and returned to the 5-year average on 10th May. In Scotland, where underlying cause mortality data besides COVID-related deaths was available, the percentage excess over the 8-week period when COVID-related mortality peaked was: dementia 49%, other causes 21%, circulatory diseases 10%, and cancer 5%. We developed an online tool (TRACKing Excess Deaths - TRACKED) to allow dynamic exploration and visualisation of the latest mortality trends. Conclusions: Continuous monitoring of excess mortality trends and further integration of age- and gender-stratified and underlying cause of death data beyond COVID-19 will allow dynamic assessment of the impacts of indirect and direct mortality of the COVID-19 pandemic.


2005 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 15-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
H Johnson ◽  
S Kovats ◽  
G McGregor ◽  
J Stedman ◽  
M Gibbs ◽  
...  

This paper describes a retrospective analysis of the impact of the 2003 heat wave on mortality in England and Wales, and compares this with rapid estimates based on the Office for National Statistics routine weekly deaths reporting system. Daily mortality data for 4 to 13 August 2003, when temperatures were much hotter than normally seen in England, were compared with averages for the same period in years 1998 to 2002. The August 2003 heat wave was associated with a large short-term increase in mortality, particularly in London. Ozone and particulate matter concentrations were also elevated during the heat wave. Overall, there were 2139 (16%) excess deaths in England and Wales. Worst affected were people over the age of 75 years. The impact was greatest in the London region where deaths in those over the age of 75 increased by 59%. Estimated excess mortality was greater than for other recent heat waves in the United Kingdom. The estimated number of deaths registered each week is reported by the Office for National Statistics. The first clear indication of a substantial increase in deaths was published on 21 August 2003. This provided a quick first estimate of the number of deaths attributable to the heat wave and reflected the pattern of daily deaths in relation to the hottest days, but underestimated the excess when compared with the later analysis.


Author(s):  
D L Tolley ◽  
G J Fowler

This paper examines the impact of the Public Utilities Regulatory Policies Act (PURPA) in the United States and the Energy Act 1983 in the United Kingdom on the nature of the purchase tariffs for co-generators and combined heat and power (CHP) plant, and considers the reasons why the prospects for investment by private generators might be enhanced in the United States.


2004 ◽  
Vol 67 (6) ◽  
pp. 1226-1228 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. J. MELDRUM ◽  
D. TUCKER ◽  
C. EDWARDS

The Public Health Laboratory Service in Wales, in cooperation with local authorities and the Food Standards Agency Wales, carried out a survey to establish baseline figures for the contamination of raw retail chicken with Salmonella and Campylobacter available within Wales, a devolved part of the United Kingdom with a population of ~3 million. Seven hundred thirty-nine samples were obtained between November 2001 and December 2002. Overall, 71% of samples were contaminated with Campylobacter, and 8% were contaminated with Salmonella. There were no significant differences between fresh and frozen carcasses and between samples taken from retailers or butchers. There was seasonal variation in the level of Campylobacter contamination of fresh chicken, with a peak in June and the lowest positive rates in January, March, and December. There was no similar peak observed in frozen samples or for Salmonella.


1999 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 763-800
Author(s):  
M.A. Stocker ◽  
S.D. Dudley ◽  
G.E. Finlay ◽  
H.J. Fisher ◽  
O. C. Harvey Wood ◽  
...  

ABSTRACTThis paper takes an overview of the potential roles and responsibilities of pension scheme actuaries in the United Kingdom in relation to defined contribution (DC) schemes.First it summarises briefly the background to UK retirement provision and in particular the move to DC arrangements. The paper then compares and contrasts the pension scheme actuary's current role in both defined benefit (DB) and DC schemes. This is then developed to consider what further statutory roles there may be for actuaries in DC schemes.The paper challenges the profession to champion the public interest by seeking clarity and simplification, and finally considers the impact on actuarial employment.


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