scholarly journals Multi-Scenario Simulation of a Water–Energy Coupling System Based on System Dynamics: A Case Study of Ningbo City

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (18) ◽  
pp. 5854
Author(s):  
Yitong Yin ◽  
Gang Lin ◽  
Dong Jiang ◽  
Jingying Fu ◽  
Donglin Dong
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Simulation Model ◽  
Energy Saving ◽  
Energy Coupling ◽  
Water Saving ◽  
Driving Factors ◽  
Dynamics Simulation ◽  
Coupling System ◽  
Simulation Results

In this work, based on the concept of collaborative water–energy development, a multi-scenario system dynamics simulation model of a water–energy coupling system was constructed by using the system dynamics modeling method. The model was composed of four subsystems: society, economic, water resources, and energy. Taking Ningbo City as the research location to run the simulation model, the analysis of the validity of the model showed that the relative error between the historical data and the simulation results of the model was less than 10%, which proved that the model passed the test. In this paper, based on the scenario of business an usual (BAU), three scenarios of water-saving scenario (WSS), energy-saving scenario (ESS), and comprehensive savings (CS, the comprehensive scenario considers water-saving and energy-saving together) were designed, and the simulation indexes in the three scenarios were refined in order to strengthen the control of water-saving policies, improve the effective use of water, optimize the industrial energy structure, improve the level of energy-saving-related technologies, and advance the urbanization process. The simulation results for Ningbo City from 2010 to 2030 show that the water–energy coupling system is affected by many factors, and the adjustment of a driving factor of any subsystem will have an impact on the water–energy coupling system. There are two driving factors: the first is a constant variable related to water resources, energy, society, and economic, and the second is a variable affected by time. The coupling system is based on the law of real development and is composed of causal and functional relationships between variables. Therefore, within the prediction range of 2030, the driving factors in the coupling system are controllable, and there is no uncontrollable situation. The strengthening of water-saving policies and the improvement of the coefficient of the effective utilization of water will have the optimal saving effects on water resources and energy at both the single and the coupling level; this also demonstrates that the water resource management in Ningbo City plays an extremely important role in the relationship of the water–energy coupling. The results of this study are expected to provide a valuable reference for the management and conservation of water–energy coupling in Ningbo City.

A system dynamics simulation model for water conflicts in the Zhanghe River Basin, China

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Liang Yuan ◽  
Weijun He ◽  
Dagmawi Mulugeta Degefu ◽  
Zhongchi Wan ◽  
Thomas Stephen Ramsey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Simulation Model ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Dynamics Simulation ◽  
Water Conflicts ◽  
System Dynamics Simulation

System dynamics simulation model for inventory optimisation of manufacturers: a case study in electrical industry

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Farimah Mokhatab Rafiei ◽  
Maryam Mofarrahi ◽  
Syed Ahmad Helmi ◽  
Masoud Rahiminezhad Galankashi
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Simulation Model ◽  
Dynamics Simulation ◽  
Electrical Industry ◽  
System Dynamics Simulation

scholarly journals ANEMI3: An updated tool for global change analysis

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. e0251489
Author(s):  
Patrick A. Breach ◽  
Slobodan P. Simonovic
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Global Change ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Dynamics Simulation ◽  
Earth System

The ANEMI model is an integrated assessment model of global change that emphasizes the role of water resources. The model is based on the principles of system dynamics simulation to analyze changes in the Earth system using feedback processes. Securing water resources for the future is a key issue of global change, and ties into global systems of population growth, climate change, carbon cycle, hydrologic cycle, economy, energy production, land use and pollution generation. Here the third iteration of the model–ANEMI3 is described, along with the methods used for parameter estimation and model testing. The main differences between ANEMI3 and previous versions include: (i) implementation of the energy-economy system based on the principles of system dynamics simulation; (ii) incorporation of water supply as an additional sector in the global economy that parallels the production of energy; (iii) inclusion of climate change effects on land yield and potentially arable land for food production, and (iv) addition of nitrogen and phosphorus based nutrient cycles as indicators of global water quality, which affect the development of surface water supplies. The model is intended for analyzing long-term global feedbacks which drive global change. Because of this, there are limitations related to the spatial scale that is used. However, the model’s simplicity can be considered a strength, as it allows for the driving feedbacks to be more easily identified. The model in its current form allows for a variety of scenarios to be created to address global issues such as climate change from an integrated perspective, or to examine the change in one model sector on Earth system behaviour. The endogenous structure of the model allows for global change to be driven entirely by model structure rather than exogenous inputs. The new additions to the ANEMI3 model are found to capture long term trends associated with global change, while allowing for the development of water supplies to be represented using an integrated approach considering global economy and surface water quality.

scholarly journals Contingencies of Violent Radicalization: The Terror Contagion Simulation

Systems ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 90
Author(s):  
Timothy Clancy ◽  
Bland Addison ◽  
Oleg Pavlov ◽  
Khalid Saeed
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Simulation Model ◽  
Future Development ◽  
Policy Development ◽  
Dynamics Simulation ◽  
Mass Violence ◽  
Testing Environment ◽  
Root Cause ◽  
The Future ◽  
System Dynamics Simulation

This paper builds confidence in the terror contagion hypothesis that violent radicalization leading to predatory mass violence operates as a system. Within this system, the contingent values of key root causes create channels within which violent ideologies and terrorism emerge. We built a system dynamics simulation model capable of replicating historical reference modes and sophisticated enough to test the contingent values of these propositions. Of 16 propositions, we identified six root-cause propositions that must simultaneously exist, act in concert and explain the dynamics of their interaction which generate a terror contagion. Other propositions can strengthen or weaken an existing contagion but not eliminate it. We use an experiment to demonstrate how changing the contingent values of these propositions creates downward channels. This experiment helps reconcile the swarm vs. fishermen debate over the true root causes of violent radicalization. Within these channels, the contingent values can favor swarm or fishermen manifestations. The simulation and experimentation results enable the future development of the terror contagion hypothesis, provide a testing environment for research on violent radicalization, and provide a pathway to policy development in the combating of terrorism that arises from violent radicalization.

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