scholarly journals Robust Enough? Exploring Temperature-Constrained Energy Transition Pathways under Climate Uncertainty

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (24) ◽  
pp. 8595
Author(s):  
Claire Nicolas ◽  
Stéphane Tchung-Ming ◽  
Olivier Bahn ◽  
Erick Delage
Keyword(s):  
Robust Optimization ◽  
Carbon Capture ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Carbon Capture And Storage ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Optimization Techniques ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Transition Pathways ◽  
The Impact

In this paper, we study how uncertainties weighing on the climate system impact the optimal technological pathways the world energy system should take to comply with stringent mitigation objectives. We use the TIAM-World model that relies on the TIMES modelling approach. Its climate module is inspired by the DICE model. Using robust optimization techniques, we assess the impact of the climate system parameter uncertainty on energy transition pathways under various climate constraints. Unlike other studies we consider all the climate system parameters which is of primary importance since: (i) parameters and outcomes of climate models are all inherently uncertain (parametric uncertainty); and (ii) the simplified models at stake summarize phenomena that are by nature complex and non-linear in a few, sometimes linear, equations so that structural uncertainty is also a major issue. The use of robust optimization allows us to identify economic energy transition pathways under climate constraints for which the outcome scenarios remain relevant for any realization of the climate parameters. In this sense, transition pathways are made robust. We find that the abatement strategies are quite different between the two temperature targets. The most stringent one is reached by investing massively in carbon removal technologies such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) which have yields much lower than traditional fossil fuelled technologies.

scholarly journals Experimental study of the supercritical CO 2 diffusion coefficient in porous media under reservoir conditions

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. 181902 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junchen Lv ◽  
Yuan Chi ◽  
Changzhong Zhao ◽  
Yi Zhang ◽  
Hailin Mu
Keyword(s):  
Porous Media ◽  
Diffusion Coefficient ◽  
Oil Recovery ◽  
Carbon Capture ◽  
Carbon Capture And Storage ◽  
Elevated Pressure ◽  
Experimental Results ◽  
Saturated Porous Media ◽  
Reservoir Conditions ◽  
The Impact

Reliable measurement of the CO 2 diffusion coefficient in consolidated oil-saturated porous media is critical for the design and performance of CO 2 -enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects. A thorough experimental investigation of the supercritical CO 2 diffusion in n -decane-saturated Berea cores with permeabilities of 50 and 100 mD was conducted in this study at elevated pressure (10–25 MPa) and temperature (333.15–373.15 K), which simulated actual reservoir conditions. The supercritical CO 2 diffusion coefficients in the Berea cores were calculated by a model appropriate for diffusion in porous media based on Fick's Law. The results show that the supercritical CO 2 diffusion coefficient increases as the pressure, temperature and permeability increase. The supercritical CO 2 diffusion coefficient first increases slowly at 10 MPa and then grows significantly with increasing pressure. The impact of the pressure decreases at elevated temperature. The effect of permeability remains steady despite the temperature change during the experiments. The effect of gas state and porous media on the supercritical CO 2 diffusion coefficient was further discussed by comparing the results of this study with previous study. Based on the experimental results, an empirical correlation for supercritical CO 2 diffusion coefficient in n -decane-saturated porous media was developed. The experimental results contribute to the study of supercritical CO 2 diffusion in compact porous media.

scholarly journals The Contribution of Natural Gas to the Paradigm of Energy Transition in Portugal: Economy, Continuity of Supply and Welfare

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 56-67
Author(s):  
Nuno Domingues
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Deductive Reasoning ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Environmental Aspects ◽  
Secondary Sources ◽  
Pull Out ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The present paper presents an analysis on the role of Natural Gas (NG) in Portugal facing the new requirements. The analyses is based on the economic, societal and environmental aspects, being the major reasons to align the Government strategy, define policies and reproduce the EU directives. The analyses do not reflect on the pandemic and financial crisis because the author considers that these factors are outside of the energy system and have not been steady along the period in study, thereby it can mislead the conclusions. This study relies mostly on non-empirical research, in which the research adopted both inductive and deductive reasoning to theorize logical assumptions about the Portuguese energy market. Building on reflection and personal observation on the field, the researchers carried out this article by gathering relevant data (i.e., statistics) through critical studies, systematic review of literature and meta-analysis on the theme. Therefore, the methodology used is based mainly on qualitative exploration of secondary sources and data, out of which one will pull out insights. The novelty of the study is to take in consider-ation all the above factors and produce results that are more adequate to reality, as all of them are interconnected and by changing one of them it will be changes in the remain. The open literature mainly focusses on the economic, the energetic, the social or the environmental aspects and neglects the others. One can conclude that there is economic advantage on efficiently distributing and consuming NG. Also, the impact of NG on a society welfare is positive. Last, the NG brings flexibility to the grid, which is more and more important in the perspective and ambition to increase the share of intermittent renewable energies.

The Role of Fossil Fuels in a Hydrogen Economy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hon Chung Lau
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Capture ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Carbon Tax ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Carbon Capture And Storage ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Renewable Energies ◽  
Two Factors ◽  
Final Energy Consumption

Abstract The world of energy is transitioning from one based on fossil-fuels to one based on renewable energies and hydrogen as an energy carrier. At present, only 11% of the world's final energy consumption and less than 1% of industrial hydrogen come from renewable energies. Our analysis shows that this energy transition will take several decades because of two factors. First, renewable energies give more CO2 savings in replacing fossil fuels in the power sector than producing hydrogen for heat generation in the industry sector. Therefore, significant quantities of green hydrogen will not be available until renewable energies have replaced fossil fuels in power generation. This will take at least two decades for advanced economies and twice as long for developing economies. Second, even if blue hydrogen produced by fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage (CCS) is available in large quantities, it is still more expensive than blue fossil fuels which is also decarbonized by CCS. Consequently, fossil fuels and CCS will continue to play a key role in this energy transition. To accelerate this energy transition, governments should introduce a significant carbon tax or carbon credit to incentivize companies to implement large-scale CCS projects. Nations whose governments adopt such policies will go through this energy transition faster and benefit from the associated job creation and economic opportunities.

scholarly journals Making the subsurface political: How enhanced oil recovery techniques reshaped the energy transition

2019 ◽  
Vol 38 (4) ◽  
pp. 733-750
Author(s):  
Sébastien Chailleux
Keyword(s):  
Enhanced Oil Recovery ◽  
Oil Recovery ◽  
Carbon Capture ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Carbon Capture And Storage ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Social Protest ◽  
Recovery Techniques ◽  
And Storage

Analyzing the case of France, this article aims to explain how the development of enhanced oil recovery techniques over the last decade contributed to politicizing the subsurface, that is putting underground resources at the center of social unrest and political debates. France faced a decline of its oil and gas activity in the 1990s, followed by a renewal with subsurface activity in the late 2000s using enhanced oil recovery techniques. An industrial demonstrator for carbon capture and storage was developed between 2010 and 2013 , while projects targeting unconventional oil and gas were pushed forward between 2008 and 2011 before eventually being canceled. We analyze how the credibility, legitimacy, and governance of those techniques were developed and how conflicts made the role of the subsurface for energy transition the target of political choices. The level of political and industrial support and social protest played a key role in building project legitimacy, while the types of narratives and their credibility determined the distinct trajectories of hydraulic fracturing and carbon capture and storage in France. The conflicts over enhanced oil recovery techniques are also explained through the critical assessment of the governance framework that tends to exclude civil society stakeholders. We suggest that these conflicts illustrated a new type of politicization of the subsurface by merging geostrategic concerns with social claims about governance, ecological demands about pollution, and linking local preoccupations to global climate change.

scholarly journals Influence of parallel computational uncertainty on simulations of the Coupled General Climate Model

2012 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 313-319 ◽  
Author(s):  
Z. Song ◽  
F. Qiao ◽  
X. Lei ◽  
C. Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Quality Standard ◽  
Ensemble Member ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Computational Uncertainty ◽  
The Impact ◽  
General Climate

Abstract. This paper investigates the impact of the parallel computational uncertainty due to the round-off error on climate simulations using the Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3). A series of sensitivity experiments have been conducted and the analyses are focused on the Global and Nino3.4 average sea surface temperatures (SST). For the monthly time series, it is shown that the amplitude of the deviation induced by the parallel computational uncertainty is the same order as that of the climate system change. However, the ensemble mean method can reduce the influence and the ensemble member number of 15 is enough to ignore the uncertainty. For climatology, the influence can be ignored when the climatological mean is calculated by using more than 30-yr simulations. It is also found that the parallel computational uncertainty has no distinguishable effect on power spectrum analysis of climate variability such as ENSO. Finally, it is suggested that the influence of the parallel computational uncertainty on Coupled General Climate Models (CGCMs) can be a quality standard or a metric for developing CGCMs.

HOW CARBON MARKET COOPERATION CHANGES THE ENERGY SYSTEMS IN NORTHEAST ASIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (02) ◽  
pp. 2050010
Author(s):  
MINHO BAEK ◽  
QIMIN CHAI ◽  
SUDUK KIM
Keyword(s):  
Power Systems ◽  
Carbon Capture ◽  
Emissions Trading ◽  
Northeast Asia ◽  
Carbon Capture And Storage ◽  
Carbon Market ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Scenario Analyses ◽  
Ccs Technologies ◽  
The Impact

This paper explores the impact of international emissions trading (IET) among Korea, China, and Japan, three countries that would form the largest potential carbon market in the world. The Nationally Determined Contribution for each country forms the basis of scenario analyses using GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model). As expected, China emerges as the sole net seller of emissions permits while Korea and Japan are the net purchasers of emission permits produced by China. All participants enjoy gains from emissions trading. The implementation of IET changes the power systems of Korea and Japan by favoring increased conventional fossil fuel usage over renewable power technologies or attached carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, while China’s power system moves in the opposite direction, by boosting the deployment of renewables and CCS-attached technologies. Considering the counterproductive incentives for Korea and Japan to consume more carbon-intensive energy sources, each country should consider such issues carefully before officially adopting IET as the pillar of climate policy.

The scalability challenge: pathways to future decarbonisation and the impact on the oil and gas industry

2020 ◽  
Vol 60 (2) ◽  
pp. 548
Author(s):  
Gavin Thompson
Keyword(s):  
Business Models ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Alternative Technologies ◽  
Multiple Challenges ◽  
The Impact

How will the global energy system move sharply towards a pathway compatible with the goals of the Paris Agreement by 2030? Despite great efforts on cost reductions in renewables, alternative technologies, advanced transportation and supportive government policies, progress to date is not enough. The challenge is now one of scalability. Although some technologies required for a 2°C future are economic and proven, many others are not. Optimists look at the cost of solar and wind and say we have all we need to achieve our targets. The reality is that significant additional investment is needed to get them to material scale, globally. And too often huge challenges are downplayed in sectors beyond power and transport, including industry, aviation, shipping, heating and agriculture. Given the criticality of climate change, these multiple challenges must now be addressed. Consequently, any accelerated pace of decarbonisation represents an existential challenge to the oil and gas industry, including in Australia. If companies are to remain investible through the long term, all will need to transition to business models that are aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement. This paper considers what the path to decarbonisation could look like and how oil and gas companies must respond in order to prosper through the energy transition.

Energy

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
José Goldemberg
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Smart Grids ◽  
Carbon Capture ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Carbon Capture And Storage ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Renewable Energy Resources ◽  
Available Energy ◽  
World Energy

Without a doubt, the topic of energy--from coal, oil, and nuclear to geothermal, solar and wind--is one of the most pressing across the globe. It is of paramount importance to policy makers, economists, environmentalists, and industry as they consider which technologies to invest in, how to promote use of renewable energy sources, and how to plan for dwindling reserves of non-renewable energy. In Energy: What Everyone Needs to Know, José Goldemberg, a nuclear physicist who has been hailed by Time magazine as one of the world's top "leaders and visionaries on the environment," takes readers through the basics of the world energy system, its problems, and the technical as well as non-technical solutions to the most pressing energy problems. Addressing the issues in a Q-and-A format, Goldemberg answers such questions as: What are wind, wave, and geothermal energy? What are the problems of nuclear waste disposal? What is acid rain? What is the greenhouse gas effect? What is Carbon Capture and Storage? What are smart grids? What is the Kyoto Protocol? What is "cap and trade"? The book sheds light on the role of population growth in energy consumption, renewable energy resources, the amount of available energy reserves (and when they will run out), geopolitical issues, environmental problems, the frequency of environmental disasters, energy efficiency, new technologies, and solutions to changing consumption patterns. It will be the first place to look for information on the vital topic of energy.

scholarly journals Strategic perspectives of the oil and gas sector industrial development

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 369-374
Author(s):  
O. I. Kalinskiy ◽  
M. A. Afonasiev
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Capture ◽  
Industrial Development ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Storage System ◽  
Carbon Capture And Storage ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Oil And Gas Sector

The authors study oil and gas industry, its condition and perspective trends of industrial development. One of them involves applying low carbon and low cost technologies. The authors introduce new strategic imperatives in oil and gas sector to perform energy transition. They study the types of categories of perspective trends of the industry’s development: scaling up the development and implementation of a carbon capture and storage system, using low carbon raw materials, making it possible to take granular measurements. The article deals with perspectives of the oil and gas industry for the current year. The perspectives are built with the consideration of the previous year’s indicators and include all the past disasters and the dynamics of their solution and the results for the society. The authors show wider implementation of drones used for abnormal emissions of hydrogen sulfide to carry out distant monitoring, observations, inspections and preventive maintenance, change tracking, methane management, emergency response and material processing. The article describes precision drilling which reduces the risk of accidents, oil spills, fires and increases rate of penetration. The authors present microwave hydraulic fracturing which can become the next significant achievement in the perspective development of the industry.

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