scholarly journals Initial Inoculum and the Severity of COVID-19: A Mathematical Modeling Study of the Dose-Response of SARS-CoV-2 Infections

Epidemiologia ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-15
Author(s):  
Baylor Fain ◽  
Hana M. Dobrovolny

SARS-CoV-2 (Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) causes a variety of responses in those who contract the virus, ranging from asymptomatic infections to acute respiratory failure and death. While there are likely multiple mechanisms triggering severe disease, one potential cause of severe disease is the size of the initial inoculum. For other respiratory diseases, larger initial doses lead to more severe outcomes. We investigate whether there is a similar link for SARS-CoV-2 infections using the combination of an agent-based model (ABM) and a partial differential equation model (PDM). We use the model to examine the viral time course for different sizes of initial inocula, generating dose-response curves for peak viral load, time of viral peak, viral growth rate, infection duration, and area under the viral titer curve. We find that large initial inocula lead to short infections, but with higher viral titer peaks; and that smaller initial inocula lower the viral titer peak, but make the infection last longer.

1979 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 209-214 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. A. Shanks ◽  
M. I. Ramzan ◽  
E. J. Triggs

Tubocurarine (dTC) was administered to twenty patients by intravenous infusion at a predetermined constant rate, and the twitch responses recorded at stimulus intervals of 10 seconds (0.1 Hz). In half the group dTC plasma concentrations were measured both during and following the infusion. This provided data for derivation of the pharmacokinetic parameters, two plasma concentration-response curves and the dose-response curve. The mean effective dTC plasma concentration for 50% paralysis during the infusion (onset) was 0.93 fig/ml, but was lower post-infusion (offset) (0.54 μg/ml, p < 0.001). The steady state dTC plasma concentration which should produce 95% paralysis was predicted to lie between 0.95 and 1.67 μg/ml. In the range 20 to 80% paralysis the slopes of the two (log) concentration-response lines were similar, although steeper than the associated (log) dose-response regression line, the test for parallelism showed no statistical difference. Combination of the plasma concentration-response curve with pharmacokinetic models was used to predict the time course of paralysis in patients with normal and impaired renal function. Dose-response curves for the other 10 patients were also constructed to stimulus frequencies from 0.02 to 5 Hz. In the range 20 to 80% paralysis the regression lines appeared to be parallel. The results were pooled for all patients at a stimulation rate of 0.1 Hz, giving a mean effective dose of dTC at 95% paralysis of 0.53 mg/kg, and an ED50 of 0.22 mg/kg.


A theory of drug action is developed on the assumption that excitation by a stimulant drug is proportional to the rate of drug-receptor combination, rather than to the proportion of receptors occupied by the drug. The properties of a drug can then be specified by two rate constants: k 1 , the association rate constant, and k 2 , the dissociation rate constant; the ratio k 2 / k 1 ═ k e corresponds to the reciprocal of the ‘affinity’. The value of k e then determines potency, and k 2 determines whether the drug is a powerful stimulant ( k 2 high), a partial agonist with ability both to excite and to antagonize ( k 2 moderate) or an antagonist with vestiges of stimulant action ( k 2 low). Qualitatively such a theory accounts for the persistence of effect of an antagonist on a tissue; for the characteristic sequence of excitation followed by block with drugs such as nicotine; for certain forms of tachyphylaxis; and for the vestiges of stimulant action possessed by classical antagonists. The theory has been tested on the guinea-pig ileum with acetylcholine and histamine as agonists, hyoscine, mepyramine and atropine as antagonists and alkyltrimethylammonium compounds as partial agonists, and it was corroborated in the following respects: 1. The dose-response curve of acetylcholine or histamine has the predicted form, if it is determined with an auxotonic rather than with an isotonic lever. 2. The rates of offset and of onset of antagonism, expressed in terms of change of receptor occupation by the antagonist, follow an exponential course from which k 1 and k 2 can be measured. Values of k 2 / k 1 so obtained agree with those obtained from the intensity of antagonism at equilibrium. The rate of onset of action increases in proportion to the antagonistic dose ratio finally achieved. The rate of offset of action is independent of the intensity of the antagonism or of the time taken to achieve it, up to dose ratios of 20 to 100. Diffusion barriers do not appear to contribute significantly to the time course of action of drugs such as hyoscine or mepyramine except at high dosage. 3. With the alkyltrimethylammonium compounds (hexyl to dodecyl): ( a ) the rate of onset and offset of antagonistic action fell with increasing potency. ( b ) The excitation produced always reached a peak response soon after injection which faded thereafter to a lower equilibrium value, with a time constant comparable with that predicted from the atropinic action. The rate and proportion of fade increased with dose. The dose-response curve for peak responses is bell-shaped, but not that for equilibrium responses. ( c ) The slope of the foot of the dose-response curves of the series and the magnitude of the maximum equilibrium responses correlated with the estimates of k 1 and k 2 , respectively, obtained from analysis of the atropinic action. The alkyltrimethylammonium compounds could be specified by a k 1 which is constant and a k 2 diminishing by a factor of about 2∙5 for each methylene group added. It is suggested that association is determined by the cationic head, and dissociation by shorter-range binding forces. 4. The responses to strong stimulants, such as histamine or acetylcholine, cannot be fully described in these terms. Following exposure to them the ileum is non-specifically desensitized. This desensitization is detectable with small doses, increases with dose and duration of exposure, and differs in its course to recovery from a specific antagonism. 5. A similar desensitization follows the removal of potassium from the fluid in which the ileum is immersed, and the two forms of desensitization summate. If potassium-free solution is applied rapidly, a contraction of the ileum occurs, indistinguishable from that due to acetylcholine. It is suggested as a working hypothesis of stimulant action that the drug ion exchanges with potassium at the receptor, and is then released from the receptor in exchange for potassium derived intracellularly, so that the chemoceptive action involves an extraction of potassium from the tissue. The implications of rate theory and of non-specific desensitization for theories of drug action are discussed.


2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brad D. Miller ◽  
Lauren A. Marks ◽  
Jonathan Koller ◽  
Blake J. Newman ◽  
G. Larry Bretthorst ◽  
...  

Background: This study’s goal was to provide dose-response data for a dopamine agonist in the baboon using standard methods (replicate measurements at each dose, across a range of doses), as a standard against which to subsequently validate a novel pharmacological MRI (phMRI) method. Dependent variables were functional MRI (fMRI) data from brain regions selected a priori, and systemic prolactin release. Necessary first steps included estimating the magnitude and time course of prolactin response to anesthesia alone and to various doses of agonist. These first steps (“time course studies”) were performed with three agonists, and the results were used to select promising agonists and to guide design details for the single-dose studies needed to generate dose-response curves. Methods: We studied 6 male baboons (Papio anubis) under low-dose isoflurane anesthesia after i.m. ketamine. Time course studies charted the changes in plasma prolactin levels over time after anesthesia alone or after an intravenous (i.v.) dose of the dopamine D1-like agonists SKF82958 and SKF38393 or the D2-like agonist pramipexole. In the single-dose dopamine agonist studies, one dose of SKF38393 (ranging from 0.0928 – 9.28 mg/kg, N=5 animals) or pramipexole (0.00928 – 0.2 mg/kg, N=1) was given i.v. during a 40-minute blood oxygen level dependent (BOLD) fMRI session, to determine BOLD and plasma prolactin responses to different drug concentrations. BOLD response was quantified as the area under the time-signal curve for the first 15 minutes after the start of the drug infusion, compared to the linearly predicted signal from the baseline data before drug. The ED50(estimated dose that produces 50% of the maximal possible response to drug) for SKF38393 was calculated for the serum prolactin response and for phMRI responses in hypothalamus, pituitary, striatum and midbrain. Results: Prolactin rose 2.4- to 12-fold with anesthesia alone, peaking around 50-90 minutes after ketamine administration and gradually tapering off but still remaining higher than baseline on isoflurane 3-5 hours after ketamine. Baseline prolactin level increased with age. SKF82958 0.1mg/kg i.v. produced no noticeable change in plasma prolactin concentration. SKF38393 produced a substantial increase in prolactin release that peaked at around 20-30 minutes and declined to pre-drug levels in about an hour. Pramipexole quickly reduced prolactin levels below baseline, reaching a nadir 2-3 hours after infusion. SKF38393 produced clear, dose-responsive BOLD signal changes, and across the four regions, ED50 was estimated at 1.6-7.7mg/kg. Conclusions: In the baboon, the dopamine D1receptor agonist SKF38393 produces clear plasma prolactin and phMRI dose-response curves. Variability in age and a modest sample size limit the precision of the conclusions.


1983 ◽  
Vol 55 (4) ◽  
pp. 1232-1236 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. J. Holtzman ◽  
L. M. Fabbri ◽  
B. E. Skoogh ◽  
P. M. O'Byrne ◽  
E. H. Walters ◽  
...  

To better understand the mechanism of ozone-induced airway hyperresponsiveness we determined the time course of the ozone effect in dogs. To do this we assessed airway responsiveness before ozone exposure and then at 1 h, 1 day, and 1 wk after ozone exposure. To assess responsiveness we anesthetized the dogs and obtained dose-response curves of increasing concentrations of acetylcholine or histamine aerosols delivered to the airways vs. pulmonary resistance. Ozone exposures were carried out with the dogs awake and at rest in an exposure chamber for 2 h breathing either through the nose and mouth at a level of 2.2 ppm or through a tracheostomy at a level of 1.0 ppm. For both acetylcholine and histamine and for both routes of ozone delivery airway responsiveness increased most markedly at 1 h after ozone, increased to a lesser degree 1 day later, and returned to control levels by 1 wk. The results are similar to our previous studies in humans that showed that ozone-induced hyperresponsiveness occurs shortly after exposure and is rapidly reversible and suggest that the ozone effect is linked to an acute inflammatory response in the airways.


1980 ◽  
Vol 238 (2) ◽  
pp. H214-H219
Author(s):  
K. Kroll ◽  
J. J. Schipperheyn ◽  
F. F. Hendriks ◽  
J. D. Laird

Coronary vasodilation after brief (less than 15 s) occlusions was studied in closed-chest, anesthetized dogs, using constant-flow perfusion of a large coronary artery. We assumed occlusion duration to be a measure of the concentration of endogeneous adenosine and determined adenosine dose-response curves by varying occlusion duration and measuring the resulting drop in vascular resistance. The curves were compared to dose-response curves measured by continuously infusing adenosine. Both dose-response relations were found to follow the Hill equation for ligand receptor interaction; the slopes of the two curves were not significantly different, and the estimated adenosine accumulation rate in the myocardium was found to be in close agreement with data in the literature, measured by direct tissue assay. The time course of recovery of vascular tone after short occlusions was not very sensitive to flow, at least not for normal flow levels or higher. The results confirm that adenosine accumulation plays an important role in causing postocclusion vasodilation. However, autoregulation of coronary flow based on an adenosine washout mechanism additionally requires tissue clearance to be highly flow dependent for flow levels below normal, but approaches a constant value when flow increases above normal.


Blood ◽  
1979 ◽  
Vol 53 (5) ◽  
pp. 935-945 ◽  
Author(s):  
JF Eliason ◽  
G Van Zant ◽  
E Goldwasser

Abstract We have demonstrated that the cyclohexanone method for the extraction of hematin can be used to measure hemoglobin synthesis induced by erythropoietin (epo) in mouse bone marrow cells cultured in medium containing methyl cellulose. The time course of hemoglobin synthesis by mouse marrow cells showed two effects due to epo: an increase in hemoglobin synthesis at day 2, which corresponded to the formation of small erythroid colonies resulting from the CFU-E (colony-forming unit, erythroid), and a very large increase in hemoglobin synthesis, which was maximal at days 7–8 and corresponded to the formation of large erythroid colonies (bursts) resulting from the BFU-E (burst-forming unit, erythroid). The epo dose-response curves for CFU-E colony counts and day-2 hemoglobin synthesis were similar, and the cell-number- response curves for these two paramaters were parallel. The epo dose- response curve for BFU-E colony counts reached a plateau at an epo concentration between 3 and 5 units/ml, whereas the dose-response curve for 6–8-day hemoglobin synthesis did not reach a plateau even at an epo dose of 10 units/ml.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Carla White

Classical receptor theory is largely built on assumptions of monomeric receptors. In this thesis, we contribute to receptor theory by considering the now widely accepted cases of dimeric receptors. The implications of dimerisation for drug discovery and therapeutics remain unclear. Therefore, a theoretical consideration of ligand binding and signalling via receptor dimers is warranted. Here, we develop mathematical models for ligand bind-ing at dimerised and dimerising receptors. A key factor in developing these theoretical models is cooperativity across the dimer, whereby binding of a ligand to one protomer affects the binding of a ligand to the other protomer. The effects of cooperativity on binding dynamics are a primary point of interest.The first models we present focus on G protein-coupled receptors, where we assume that all receptors are pre-dimerised. Ligand binding models give linear systems of differ-ential equations which we use to analyse time course behaviours. At equilibrium, these models may exhibit multi-phasic log dose response curves, critically depending on co-operativity factors. When considering receptor activation, we see dose response curves that are indicative of non-standard ligand-receptor interactions, giving a quantitative and qualitative platform for analysing and interpreting data when dimers are suspected. A ligand induced model for vascular endothelial growth factor receptors is developed, whereby receptors exist constitutively as monomers and dimerise in response to ligand binding. The resulting nonlinear system of differential equations is investigated using numerical computations and perturbation methods. We see an excellent fit to published data, validating the model.The utility of our models in parameter estimation is explored theoretically using structural identifiability analysis. This determines which parameters can be theoretically estimated from fitting. This analysis is valuable but often overlooked when fitting to ligand-receptor interaction models. We explore the identifiability of some canonical lig-and binding models, and our dimer binding models, providing a tutorial and results to contribute to the receptor theory toolbox.


2006 ◽  
Vol 104 (5) ◽  
pp. 950-953 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashraf A. Dahaba ◽  
Seth I. Perelman ◽  
David M. Moskowitz ◽  
Henry L. Bennett ◽  
Aryeh Shander ◽  
...  

Background Geographic location is not acknowledged as a stratifying factor that can directly affect drug potency, because drugs are still licensed with the same recommended dose for different geographic regions. The aim of the current study was to compare the potency and duration of action of rocuronium bromide in 54 patients in three countries with different life habits, diet, and ambient conditions, namely white Austrians, white North Americans, and Han Chinese in China. Methods Neuromuscular block of six consecutive 50-microg/kg rocuronium incremental doses followed by 300 microg/kg was evaluated using the Relaxometer mechanomyograph (Groningen University, Groningen, Holland). Dose-response curves were created using log-dose-probit transformation. The authors compared rocuronium bromide ED50, ED90, and ED95 (effective doses required for 50%, 90%, and 95% first twitch depression, respectively) as well as Dur25 and Dur0.8 (times from last incremental dose administration until 25% first twitch and 0.8 train-of-four ratio recovery, respectively) in patients of the three countries. Results Rocuronium ED50, ED90, and ED95 were significantly higher in Austrian patients (258 +/- 68, 530 +/- 159, and 598 +/- 189 microg/kg) and Chinese patients (201 +/- 59, 413 +/- 107, and 475 +/- 155 microg/kg) compared with American patients (148 +/- 48, 316 +/- 116, and 362 +/- 149 microg/kg, respectively). Dur25 and Dur0.8 were significantly shorter in Austrian patients (22.3 +/- 5.5 and 36.9 +/- 12.8 min) and Chinese patients (30.4 +/- 7.5 and 45.7 +/- 15.9 min) compared with American patients (36.7 +/- 8.5 and 56.2 +/- 16.7 min, respectively). Conclusions The authors demonstrated a significant difference in rocuronium potency and duration of action among patients in the three countries. Larger studies are required for determining dosage recommendations for different geographic regions.


2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brad D. Miller ◽  
Lauren A. Marks ◽  
Jonathan Koller ◽  
Blake J. Newman ◽  
G. Larry Bretthorst ◽  
...  

Background: This study’s goal was to provide dose-response data for a dopamine agonist in the baboon using standard methods (replicate measurements at each dose, across a range of doses), as a standard against which to subsequently validate a novel pharmacological MRI (phMRI) method. Dependent variables were functional MRI (fMRI) data from brain regions selected a priori, and systemic prolactin release. Necessary first steps included estimating the magnitude and time course of prolactin response to anesthesia alone and to various doses of agonist. These first steps (“time course studies”) were performed with three agonists, and the results were used to select promising agonists and to guide design details for the single-dose studies needed to generate dose-response curves. Methods: We studied 6 male baboons (Papio anubis) under low-dose isoflurane anesthesia after i.m. ketamine. Time course studies charted the changes in plasma prolactin levels over time after anesthesia alone or after an intravenous (i.v.) dose of the dopamine D1-like agonists SKF82958 and SKF38393 or the D2-like agonist pramipexole. In the single-dose dopamine agonist studies, one dose of SKF38393 (ranging from 0.0928 – 9.28 mg/kg, N=5 animals) or pramipexole (0.00928 – 0.2 mg/kg, N=1) was given i.v. during a 40-minute blood oxygen level dependent (BOLD) fMRI session, to determine BOLD and plasma prolactin responses to different drug concentrations. BOLD response was quantified as the area under the time-signal curve for the first 15 minutes after the start of the drug infusion, compared to the linearly predicted signal from the baseline data before drug. The ED50(estimated dose that produces 50% of the maximal possible response to drug) for SKF38393 was calculated for the serum prolactin response and for phMRI responses in hypothalamus, pituitary, striatum and midbrain. Results: Prolactin rose 2.4- to 12-fold with anesthesia alone, peaking around 50-90 minutes after ketamine administration and gradually tapering off but still remaining higher than baseline on isoflurane 3-5 hours after ketamine. Baseline prolactin level increased with age. SKF82958 0.1mg/kg i.v. produced no noticeable change in plasma prolactin concentration. SKF38393 produced a substantial increase in prolactin release that peaked at around 20-30 minutes and declined to pre-drug levels in about an hour. Pramipexole quickly reduced prolactin levels below baseline, reaching a nadir 2-3 hours after infusion. SKF38393 produced clear, dose-responsive BOLD signal changes, and across the four regions, ED50 was estimated at 1.6-7.7mg/kg. Conclusions: In the baboon, the dopamine D1receptor agonist SKF38393 produces clear plasma prolactin and phMRI dose-response curves. Variability in age and a modest sample size limit the precision of the conclusions.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander L. R. Lubbock ◽  
Leonard A. Harris ◽  
Vito Quaranta ◽  
Darren R. Tyson ◽  
Carlos F. Lopez

AbstractQuantifying the effects of drugs and other environmental factors on cell proliferation in vitro continues to be one of the most prevalent assays in biomedical research. Assessment of the dose-dependent nature of drug effects is typically performed with a variety of commercial software applications or using freely available, but more technically demanding, statistical programming environments such as Python or R. However, with the advent of large, publicly-available drug response databases and continued advancements in high-throughput experimentation, there is a growing need for user-friendly software platforms that can efficiently and reliably facilitate analysis within and across large datasets. Here we introduce Thunor, an open-source software platform for the management, analysis, and visualization of large-scale dose-dependent cell proliferation datasets. Thunor provides a simple, user-friendly interface to upload cell count data and a graphical plate map tool to annotate plate wells with cell lines and drugs. Best-fit dose–response curves are generated based on either cell viability or proliferation rate drug effect metrics. Derived dose–response parameters, such as IC50, Emax, and activity area, are automatically calculated by the software back-end. An arrayed plot interface supports multiple plot types, including time course, dose–response curve, box/bar/scatter plots of derived parameters, and quality control analyses, among others. We demonstrate the features of Thunor on large-scale, publicly-available viability data and an in-house, high-throughput proliferation rate dataset. Software, documentation, and an online demo are all available at thunor.net.


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