scholarly journals Advances in Flood Early Warning: Ensemble Forecast, Information Dissemination and Decision-Support Systems

Hydrology ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 56
Author(s):  
Haiyun Shi ◽  
Erhu Du ◽  
Suning Liu ◽  
Kwok-Wing Chau
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Information Dissemination ◽  
Service Oriented Architecture ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Ensemble Forecast ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Flood Alert ◽  
Service Oriented

Floods are usually highly destructive, which may cause enormous losses to lives and property. It is, therefore, important and necessary to develop effective flood early warning systems and disseminate the information to the public through various information sources, to prevent or at least mitigate the flood damages. For flood early warning, novel methods can be developed by taking advantage of the state-of-the-art techniques (e.g., ensemble forecast, numerical weather prediction, and service-oriented architecture) and data sources (e.g., social media), and such developments can offer new insights for modeling flood disasters, including facilitating more accurate forecasts, more efficient communication, and more timely evacuation. The present Special Issue aims to collect the latest methodological developments and applications in the field of flood early warning. More specifically, we collected a number of contributions dealing with: (1) an urban flash flood alert tool for megacities; (2) a copula-based bivariate flood risk assessment; and (3) an analytic hierarchy process approach to flash flood impact assessment.

scholarly journals Flash-flood early warning using weather radar data: from nowcasting to forecasting

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 1289-1331 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Liechti ◽  
L. Panziera ◽  
U. Germann ◽  
M. Zappa
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Swiss Alps ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasting ◽  
Orographic Rainfall ◽  
Forecasting System

Abstract. This study explores the limits of radar-based forecasting for hydrological runoff prediction. Two novel probabilistic radar-based forecasting chains for flash-flood early warning are investigated in three catchments in the Southern Swiss Alps and set in relation to deterministic discharge forecast for the same catchments. The first probabilistic radar-based forecasting chain is driven by NORA (Nowcasting of Orographic Rainfall by means of Analogues), an analogue-based heuristic nowcasting system to predict orographic rainfall for the following eight hours. The second probabilistic forecasting system evaluated is REAL-C2, where the numerical weather prediction COSMO-2 is initialized with 25 different initial conditions derived from a four-day nowcast with the radar ensemble REAL. Additionally, three deterministic forecasting chains were analysed. The performance of these five flash-flood forecasting systems was analysed for 1389 h between June 2007 and December 2010 for which NORA forecasts were issued, due to the presence of orographic forcing. We found a clear preference for the probabilistic approach. Discharge forecasts perform better when forced by NORA rather than by a persistent radar QPE for lead times up to eight hours and for all discharge thresholds analysed. The best results were, however, obtained with the REAL-C2 forecasting chain, which was also remarkably skilful even with the highest thresholds. However, for regions where REAL cannot be produced, NORA might be an option for forecasting events triggered by orographic precipitation.

scholarly journals Technical Architecture of Enabling Body of Knowledge System for Effective Learning and Information Dissemination

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 41-62
Author(s):  
Liang-Jie Zhang ◽  
Jia Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Information Dissemination ◽  
Service Oriented Architecture ◽  
Heterogeneous Data ◽  
Well Performance ◽  
Services Computing ◽  
Body Of Knowledge ◽  
Urgent Task ◽  
Technical Architecture ◽  
Service Oriented ◽  
Delivery Platform

In the current era of knowledge explosion, many fields are witnessing a tremendous amount of research and practice reported on a regular basis. How to help people effectively and efficiently study state-of-the-art knowledge in a specific field has become an urgent task yet highly challenging. On top of the Internet as an unstructured knowledge base, this paper reports the design and development of a Body of Knowledge portal (BoK), which can be used as a novel learning environment. Leveraging the key technologies of services computing (Web 2.0, Web services and Service-Oriented Architecture), a BoK provides a uniform gateway for researchers and practitioners to seamlessly study and organize knowledge from heterogeneous data sources. A service-oriented knowledge delivery mechanism is key to a BoK centered on configurable delivery protocols. As services computing having evolved as the foundational discipline supporting modern services industry, the authors used the field as an example to illustrate the technical architecture that enables the establishment of BoK in services computing. Information dissemination of BoK on mobile delivery platform is explored as well. Performance data analysis is also reported on the BoK infrastructure.

scholarly journals Hydro-meteorological reconstruction and geomorphological impact assessment of the October 2018 catastrophic flash flood at Sant Llorenç, Mallorca (Spain)

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (11) ◽  
pp. 2597-2617 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jorge Lorenzo-Lacruz ◽  
Arnau Amengual ◽  
Celso Garcia ◽  
Enrique Morán-Tejeda ◽  
Víctor Homar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Models ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Response Times ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Management Service ◽  
Convective Rainfall ◽  
Hydraulic Simulation

Abstract. An extraordinary convective rainfall event, unforeseen by most numerical weather prediction models, generated a devastating flash flood (305 m3 s−1) in the town of Sant Llorenç des Cardassar, Mallorca, on 9 October 2018. Four people died inside this village, while casualties were up to 13 over the entire affected area. This extreme event has been reconstructed by implementing an integrated flash flood modelling approach in the Ses Planes catchment up to Sant Llorenç (23.4 km2), based on three components: (i) generation of radar-derived precipitation estimates, (ii) modelling of accurate discharge hydrographs yielded by the catchment (using FEST and KLEM models), and (iii) hydraulic simulation of the event and mapping of affected areas (using HEC-RAS). Radar-derived rainfall estimates show very high agreement with rain gauge data (R2=0.98). Modelled flooding extent is in close agreement with the observed extension by the Copernicus Emergency Management Service, based on Sentinel-1 imagery, and both far exceed the extension for a 500-year return period flood. Hydraulic simulation revealed that water reached a depth of 3 m at some points, and modelled water depths highly correlate (R2=0.91) with in situ after-event measurements. The 9 October flash flood eroded and transported woody and abundant sediment debris, changing channel geomorphology. Water velocity greatly increased at bridge locations crossing the river channel, especially at those closer to the Sant Llorenç town centre. This study highlights how the very low predictability of this type of extreme convective rainfall events and the very short hydrological response times typical of small Mediterranean catchments continue to challenge the implementation of early warning systems, which effectively reduce people's exposure to flash flood risk in the region.

Community Based Flash Flood Early Warning System: a Low-cost Technology for Nepalese Mountains

2018 ◽  
pp. 87-92
Author(s):  
Basanta Raj Adhikari ◽  
Nagendra Raj Sitoula
Keyword(s):  
Operating System ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Ultrasonic Sensor ◽  
Environmental Cost ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Processing Unit

Every year, flood impose substantial economic, social and environmental cost on Nepalese community through direct damage to residential, commercial, educational and structures. Moreover, the flood destroys animal farm, commercial stock and records and other content of the building and pollutes the water. Early Warning Systems are important to save such lives and properties which involves computer, satellite data and high accurate operating system but this system is very costly in terms of installation as well as operation and maintenance leading to hindrance in the sustainability of the system. However, high-tech technology is very expensive and not feasible in Nepal and therefore low-cost and easy operating system is needed in the rural parts of Nepal. The system includes Solar panel, Siren, Ultrasonic sensor, processing unit, and battery. The ultrasonic sensor sense water level and the siren will automatically start. The threshold can be set up according to the space and time. Bulletin of Department of Geology, vol. 20-21, 2018, pp: 87-92

scholarly journals A service-oriented architecture for ensemble flood forecast from numerical weather prediction

2015 ◽  
Vol 527 ◽  
pp. 933-942 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haiyun Shi ◽  
Tiejian Li ◽  
Ronghua Liu ◽  
Ji Chen ◽  
Jiaye Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Service Oriented Architecture ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Flood Forecast ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Service Oriented

scholarly journals Advanced Tools for Flood Management: An Early Warning System for Arid and Semiarid Regions

2021 ◽  
pp. 209-223
Author(s):  
Ekkehard Holzbecher ◽  
Ahmed Hadidi ◽  
Nicolette Volp ◽  
Jeroen de Koning ◽  
Humaid Al Badi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning System ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Integrated Water Resources Management ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Flood Management ◽  
Special Focus ◽  
Semiarid Regions ◽  
Smart Technologies

AbstractTechnologies concerning integrated water resources management, in general, and flood management, in particular, have recently undergone rapid developments. New smart technologies have been implemented in every relevant sector and include hydrological sensors, remote sensing, sensor networks, data integration, hydrodynamic simulation and visualization, decision support and early warning systems as well as the dissemination of information to decision-makers and the public. After providing a rough review of current developments, we demonstrate the operation of an advanced system with a special focus on an early warning system. Two case studies are covered in this chapter: one specific urban case located in the city of Parrametta in Australia in an area that shows similar flood characteristics to those found in arid or semiarid regions and one case regarding the countrywide Flash Flood Guidance System in Oman (OmanFFGS).

A forensic hydrometeorological and geomorphological reconstruction of the catastrophic flash flood occurred in Mallorca (Spain) on October 9th, 2018

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arnau Amengual ◽  
Jorge Lorenzo-Lacruz ◽  
Celso Garcia ◽  
Enrique Morán Tejeda ◽  
Víctor Homar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Models ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Management Service ◽  
Convective Rainfall ◽  
Hydraulic Simulation ◽  
Flood Peak ◽  
The Town

<p>An extraordinary convective rainfall event –unforeseen by most numerical weather prediction models– led to a devastating flash flood in the town of Sant Llorenç des Cardassar, eastern Mallorca, on 9th October 2018. Four people died inside the village, while the total death toll was of 13 and economic damages amounted to 91 M€. The observed flooded extension inside the town by the Copernicus Emergency Management Service –based on Sentinel-1 imagery– far exceeded the extension for a 500-year return period flood. This extreme event has been reconstructed by implementing an integrated flood modelling approach over the semi-arid and small-sized Ses Planes basin up to Sant Llorenç (23.4 km²). This procedure is based on three components: (i) generation of high spatial and temporal resolution radar-derived precipitation estimates; (ii) modelling of the hydrologic response based on post-flood peak discharge estimates; and (iii) hydraulic simulation and mapping of the affected areas based on high water marks. Radar-derived rainfall estimates and the simulated flooding extent and water depths highly correlate with observations. The hydraulic simulation has revealed that water reached a depth of 3 m at some points inside Sant Llorenç and that water velocity greatly increased at bridges’ locations close to the town centre. Even if the catastrophic flash flood was not a debris flow, the flood bore eroded enough material to change channel geomorphology. This study also highlights how the concurrence of the very low predictability of this type of extreme convective rainfall events and the very short hydrological response times typical of small Mediterranean catchments still challenges the implementation of early warning systems, which effectively reduce people’s exposure to flash flood risk in the region.</p>

ANDES: The first system for flash flood monitoring and forecasting in Peru

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lavado-Casimiro Waldo ◽  
Jimenez Juan Carlos ◽  
Llauca Harold ◽  
Leon Karen ◽  
Oria Clara ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Hydraulic Models ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Hydrological Hazards

<p>Hydrological hazards related to flash floods (FF) in Peru have caused many economic and human life losses in recent years. In this context, developing complete early warning systems against FF is necessary to cope impacts. For this purpose, hydrological and hydraulic models coupled to numerical weather models (NWM) that provide forecasts are generally used.</p><p>In this sense, the National Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Peru (SENAMHI) has launched the ANDES initiative (Operational Forecasting System for Flash Floods of SENAMHI in English) to support FF events. </p><p>The pilot region is the Vilcanota basin located in the southern Andes into Cusco department. For this purpose, 4 hydrological stations will be monitoring at hourly time resolution (km 105-Intihuatana, Chilca, Pisac and Sallca). More, 3 video cameras in real time will be employed to velocimetry and water levels monitoring. An exhaustive hydrometry analysis (rating curve) will be implemented to follow discharges day by day. The forcing for the hourly hydrological modelling will be the SENAMHI’s automatic stations (rainfall and temperature). For this purpose a merge spatial prediction methodology between satellite real time precipitation and gauge station precipitation will be develop: GPM (Imerg), GSMAP and Hydroestimator satellite products will be evaluated. Preliminary results of hourly hydrological model shown good results using pure satellite precipitation. In the next months an hydraulic model will be implemented in the channels with more flood vulnerability (Lisflood model) that together with an Numerical weather prediction (NWP) the WRF (The Weather Research and Forecasting) meteorological model will be implemented in the Vilcanota basin. The update will be done every six hours and to improve the output results a bias correction methodology  will be use. Finally using these forecasts will be assimilated in the hydrological and hydraulic models.</p><p>This research is part of the multidisciplinary collaboration between British and Peruvian scientists (NERC, CONCYTEC).</p>

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