scholarly journals Evaluation and Prediction of the Ecological Footprint and Ecological Carrying Capacity for Yangtze River Urban Agglomeration Based on the Grey Model

Author(s):  
Benhong Peng ◽  
Yuanyuan Wang ◽  
Ehsan Elahi ◽  
Guo Wei

The conflict between economic development and environmental protection has become increasingly prominent in the urbanization process of the Yangtze River urban agglomeration, the most economically developed region in Jiangsu Province in China. In order to investigate the sustainable development status, and thus provide decision support for the sustainable development of this region, the ecological footprint model was utilized to evaluate and analyze the ecological footprint per capita, the ecological carrying capacity per capita, and the ecological deficit per capita for the period from 2013 to 2017. Furthermore, the Grey model is employed to predict the development trend of the ecological footprint for 2018 to 2022. The evaluation results show that the ecological footprint per capita has been increasing year by year since 2013, reaching a peak of 2.3897 hm2 in 2015 before declining again. In the same period, the available ecological carrying capacity per capita and the ecological footprint per capita basically developed in the same direction, resulting in an ecological deficit per capita and gradually increasing from 2013 to a peak of 2.0303 hm2 in 2015 before declining. It is also found that the change of ecological carrying capacity is not substantial, and the change of the ecological deficit is mainly caused by a huge change of the ecological footprint. The forecast results show that the ecological deficit per capita will reach 1.1713 hm2 in 2018, which will be another deficit peak after 2015. However, in the later period until 2022, the ecological deficit per capita will begin to decline year by year. These results can provide effective inspirations for reducing the ecological deficit of the Yangtze River urban agglomeration, thus promoting the coordinated development of the economy and environment in this area.

2014 ◽  
Vol 641-642 ◽  
pp. 1062-1065
Author(s):  
Lin Wu

Ecological footprint method was used to estimate the resident’s per capita resource consumption ecological footprint and per capita ecological carrying capacity of Changsha based the statistical data from 1996 to 2009. And the Changsha sustainable development issue was discussed. The results shown that during 1996 to 2009, Changsha per capita ecological footprint of biological resources consumption has a fluctuated upward trend. Ecological footprint per capita consumption of biological resources was dominated. There is a deficit of per capita ecological carrying capacity in Changsha; People activities impact on the regional ecosystem has exceeded the ecological carrying capacity, and it resulting in a greater pressure on the ecosystem. From the perspective of resources ecological carrying capacity, Changsha’s development model is not sustainable in 1996 to 2009. It should be transfer the mode of economic development, improve resource utilization efficiency, and promote the sustainable development of regional resources.


2014 ◽  
Vol 1010-1012 ◽  
pp. 722-725
Author(s):  
Hong Yu Jia ◽  
Jing Xu ◽  
Gao Sheng Zhang

Based on the data of Shandong’ statistical yearbook-2013, Shandong’s ecological footprint (EF) and bio-capacity (BC) are calculated and analyzed. The ecological footprint is 4.594781 hm2per capita, the ecological carrying capacity is 0.995870 hm2per capita. Results show that Shandong is a region with a severe ecological deficit which comes up to 2.096052 hm2per capita .That means the development of Shandong is not sustainable.


Author(s):  
Yu Ding ◽  
Jian Peng

The rapid urbanization has exerted tremendous pressure on natural systems in mountains. As a measure of sustainable use of natural resources, ecological footprint is an important basis for judging whether the development of a country or region is within the biocapacity. Taking Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture as an example, this study comprehensively analyzes the impact of human activities on mountain resources and environment from the three aspects of urbanization, land use and ecological carrying capacity. The results show that Dali Prefecture with the urbanization rate of 33% is still in the accelerated stage of urbanization. The urban space presents the core-periphery feature, and the central city is the focus of human existence and living activities. The per capita ecological footprint is 1.14 hm2/person higher than the ecological carrying capacity, meaning Dali Prefecture is in an ecological deficit state. This indicates that there is an uncoordinated state between urbanization and environment. Arable land is the main source of per capita ecological footprint in the prefecture. However, the urban expansion overly occupies the arable land in the plain sub-region, leading the arable land to an ecological deficit state. In the future, the development of the mountainous area should focus on the protection of arable land and choose a new sustainable path.


Author(s):  
Yuanyuan Wang ◽  
Benhong Peng ◽  
Guo Wei ◽  
Ehsan Elahi

Ecological carrying capacity is an important factor of sustainable development for cities, and a critical part of achieving the coordinated development of the social economic and ecological environment for urban agglomerations. In order to evaluate the regional ecological carrying capacity and provide a basis for decision-making for regional sustainable development, this paper constructs an ecological carrying capacity model for the urban agglomeration from two dimensions: ecological carrying elastic force and ecological carrying pressure. The analytic hierarchy process is utilized to determine the weights of nine indices in these two dimensions. For the Yangtze River urban agglomeration, the comprehensive index of its ecological carrying capacity is investigated quantitatively, and the spatial distribution map of its comprehensive index measuring ecological carrying capacity is computed. The results show that Nanjing, Yangzhou, Taizhou, and Changzhou are in the stage of high load carrying; Suzhou, Wuxi, Nantong, and Zhenjiang are in the stage of low load carrying. In addition, the environmental protection investment has the greatest impact on ecological carrying elastic force, followed by the proportion of the tertiary industry; wastewater discharge has the greatest impact on ecological carrying pressure. The level of ecological carrying capacity varies within the region. It is necessary to take measures to increase the ecological carrying elastic force and reduce the ecological carrying pressure according to the actual conditions in each region. Meanwhile, exchanges and cooperation between different regions should be strengthened to stimulate the coordinated and sustainable development.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hongqi Wang

<p>How to balance ecosystem health and economic development is essential to study sustainability of urban ecosystems. Many methods for assessing urban sustainability have been developed, among which ecological footprint analysis (EFA) has been widely applied as a promising policy and planning tool. This paper proposed a modified EFA with the local ecological footprint being justified by adapting equivalence and yield factors in context of net primary productivity (NPP) from the Miami model. Biodiversity reserves were also incorporated using GIS technology and synthetic assessment of attributes to reflect various eco- logical functions. In addition, ecological footprint deficit (EFD), implying that the productive land cannot sustain current levels of consumption for a given population, was used to reveal the extent of ecological debt, while the ecological footprint variation index (EFVI) was proposed to describe the tradeoffs between real consumption and the carrying capacity of a specific region. A case study of urban areas in the middle stream of the Yangtze River Basin showed that the per capita EFD of the Wanjiang urban belt, central Poyang Lake urban agglomeration, suburban Poyang Lake urban agglomeration, Wuhan megalopolis, Jingmen–Jingzhou–Yichang urban agglomeration, central Changsha–Zhuzou–Xiangtan urban agglomeration, and suburban Changsha–Zhuzou–Xiangtan urban agglomeration increased by 64.83%, 178.05%, 214.82%, 59.08%, 71.68%, 100.62%, and 91.06% between 2000 and 2010, respectively. The local ecological footprint pressure index (EFPI) was classified into five levels. The Poyang lake urban agglomeration was found to be in a slight deficit, while all others were in a severe deficit in 2010. Calculations of EFVI also revealed that the booming urbanization occurred at great cost to the deteriorating ecosystems between 2000 and 2010. Accordingly, relevant influence factors were investigated using a forward stepwise regression method, which indicated that ecological deficit was positively correlated with GDP, population density, and emission of industrial waste, but negatively correlated with the tertiary industry.</p>


2011 ◽  
Vol 374-377 ◽  
pp. 82-85
Author(s):  
Li Ying ◽  
Ting Ting Guo ◽  
Pan Yan

Since the water resourse insome towns of Beijing were in a big shortage in the past few years, it becomes a key factor which restricts the sustainable development and theurbanlization of Beijing. Based on the fact, this paper introduces the reserrch situation and development of the ecological footprint of urban water resourse in Beijing. And it puts forward the method for calculating the the ecological footprint of urban water resourse , includeing domestic water, process water and eological water, in Beijing. Furthermore, the computational method of ecological carrying capacity and ecological deficit of urban water resourse in Beijing is proposed, which provides reference for the evaluation of ecological capacity of urban water resourse in Beijing.


2015 ◽  
Vol 744-746 ◽  
pp. 2236-2240
Author(s):  
Meng Zhang ◽  
Zhao Hua Lu ◽  
Jin Fang Zhu ◽  
Fei Fei Tan

Most of resource-based cities (RBC) are the result of resource-based industrialization processes and were built on mining areas, leading to heterogeneous composition and distribution of urban areas which were lacking of proper urban planning guidance. The unique urbanization processes in RBC resulted in severe fragmentation of habitats and environmental exacerbation and generated negative impacts to human well-being. In this research, an assessment model based on ecological footprint (EF) and ecological carrying capacity (EC) was used to detect the trend of urbanization in Tangshan city. In this model, we created four new indicators which could enrich EF and EC with economic and social dimensions, and categorized six types of ecological footprints into three main kinds of ecological footprints. The results indicated that (a) the EF per capita and the EC per capita have had enormous increment and decrement respectively; (b) ecological tension and ecological occupancy presented a constant increasing trend while the ecological sustainability was continuously decreasing in this period; and (c) almost all of the six indicators were in an unbalanced status in the comprehensive grading system worldwide. We suggest that (a) a diversified energy consumption structure and an energy-saving urban system should be accomplished in the future urban regulation; (b) any shrinkage of fisheries should be avoided in the future urban regulation, and coastal protection and offshore fishing should be prioritized.


Complexity ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Jing Yang ◽  
Bing Zheng ◽  
Zhenghua Chen

On the basis of ecological footprint theory and tourism ecological footprint theory, the sustainable development indexes such as ecological footprint, ecological carrying capacity, ecological deficit, and ecological surplus of the research area were calculated and the long-term change pattern of each index was analyzed. This paper shows that the ecological footprint of the research area increases year by year, but the ecological footprint is always smaller than the ecological carrying capacity, indicating that the area is still in the state of sustainable development. However, the per capita ecological surplus shows a decreasing trend year by year, indicating that the sustainable development of the region is getting worse. This paper proposes a reordering method of tourist attractions based on heterogeneous information fusion, and realizes the retrieval and reordering of tourist attractions based on user query and fusion of heterogeneous information, so as to help users make travel decisions. In view of the shortage of tourism commercial websites to passively provide scenic spot information, this paper puts forward a scenic spot retrieval method based on query words to enable users to obtain scenic spot information according to their needs, and constructs a tourist consumer data analysis system. The preprocessing methods and methods adopted by the data preprocessing module are analyzed in detail, and the algorithms used in the travel route analysis and consumer spending ability analysis are described in detail. The data of tourism consumers are analyzed by this system, and the results are evaluated.


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