scholarly journals The Mortality Response to Absolute and Relative Temperature Extremes

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (9) ◽  
pp. 1493 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott C. Sheridan ◽  
Cameron C. Lee ◽  
Michael J. Allen
Keyword(s):  
Metropolitan Areas ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Temperature Extremes ◽  
Relative Temperature ◽  
Extreme Heat Events ◽  
Cold Events ◽  
Extreme Cold ◽  
Extreme Temperature Event ◽  
Heat Events

While the impact of absolute extreme temperatures on human health has been amply studied, far less attention has been given to relative temperature extremes, that is, events that are highly unusual for the time of year but not necessarily extreme relative to a location’s overall climate. In this research, we use a recently defined extreme temperature event metric to define absolute extreme heat events (EHE) and extreme cold events (ECE) using absolute thresholds, and relative extreme heat events (REHE) and relative extreme cold events (RECE) using relative thresholds. All-cause mortality outcomes using a distributed lag nonlinear model are evaluated for the largest 51 metropolitan areas in the US for the period 1975–2010. Both the immediate impacts and the cumulative 20-day impacts are assessed for each of the extreme temperature event types. The 51 metropolitan areas were then grouped into 8 regions for meta-analysis. For heat events, the greatest mortality increases occur with a 0-day lag, with the subsequent days showing below-expected mortality (harvesting) that decreases the overall cumulative impact. For EHE, increases in mortality are still statistically significant when examined over 20 days. For REHE, it appears as though the day-0 increase in mortality is short-term displacement. For cold events, both relative and absolute, there is little mortality increase on day 0, but the impacts increase on subsequent days. Cumulative impacts are statistically significant at more than half of the stations for both ECE and RECE. The response to absolute ECE is strongest, but is also significant when using RECE across several southern locations, suggesting that there may be a lack of acclimatization, increasing mortality in relative cold events both early and late in winter.

scholarly journals Impact of Extreme Heat Events on Emergency Department Visits in North Carolina (2007–2011)

2015 ◽  
Vol 41 (1) ◽  
pp. 146-156 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher M. Fuhrmann ◽  
Margaret M. Sugg ◽  
Charles E. Konrad ◽  
Anna Waller
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Department ◽  
North Carolina ◽  
Emergency Department Visits ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Extreme Heat Events ◽  
Heat Events

scholarly journals Interdecadal Variations of Persistent Extreme Heat Events in Eastern China Under Global Warming

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naihui Zang ◽  
Junhu Zhao ◽  
Pengcheng Yan ◽  
Han Zhang ◽  
Shankai Tang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
21St Century ◽  
South China ◽  
North China ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Extreme Heat Events ◽  
June July ◽  
Heat Events

Abstract Persistent extreme heat events (PEHEs) exert a more negative impact on society, including agriculture, plant phenology, power production and human health, compared to general EHEs. The temporal and spatial characteristics of summer PEHEs in eastern China were analysed based on a daily maximum temperature dataset from 759 stations over the period of 1961–2018. The results show the following: Persistent distributions of PEHEs show that they are characterized by an exponential decay with a drop in the decay rate. In terms of spatial distribution, there is an apparent regional difference in the duration of PEHEs. North China is dominated by multi-frequency and short-duration EHEs, while South China is the opposite. PEHEs in North China and the Huanghuai region mainly occur in June-July but mostly in July and August in South China. Strongly responding to global warming, the frequency and duration of PEHEs in North China have increased since the 1990s. However, the frequency of PEHEs in North China and the Huanghuai region has shown opposite trends in June-July since the beginning of the 21st century. Affected by the atmospheric circulations, the regional differences in PEHE frequency are also apparent. Since the beginning of the 21st century, the PEHEs in North China and the Huanghuai area have shown an increasing trend in August. The short-term PEHEs in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and South China increased rapidly in the 2000s, while long-term PEHEs increased in the 2010s. This study implies that attention should be paid to not only the frequency of EH days but also to the persistence of EHE which is a key characteristic of damaging EH.

Extreme Heat

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Heat Wave ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Geographic Location ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
The United States ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Extreme Heat Events ◽  
The World ◽  
Heat Events

Extreme heat events (EHEs) are periods of high temperatures and humidity that are considered to be unusual for a specific geographic location. For example, in 1995 an extended heat wave in Chicago, Illinois, in the United States was blamed for the deaths of 550 citizens. Most of the dead were elderly, poor individuals who may not have realized that heat could kill, or who had no means of mitigating the rising temperatures in their homes or any way to escape to a cooler environment. In 2003, Europe was subjected to an EHE that is estimated to have resulted in the deaths of 70,000, with 15,000 of those deaths in Paris, France. “Extreme heat” is a relative term. Individuals adapt to their local climate, so it is difficult to use an absolute number to describe the conditions meteorologists consider a relative change from past conditions. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) defines extreme heat as “summertime temperatures that are substantially hotter and/or more humid than average for location at that time of year.” According to the Public Health Institute’s Center for Climate Change, the state of California defines extreme heat days as those days above the 98th percentile of maximum temperatures based on 1961–1990 data for a specific location. Crucial to understanding extreme heat events is the collection of data about temperature and humidity. The US Global Change Research Program provides heat wave data spanning 1961 to 2018. The site links to a variety of programs related to global climate modeling. The National Resources Defense Council is a nongovernmental organization that has excellent maps which show change over time in the frequency of extreme heat events that overlay the human impact of these events. The National Centers for Environmental Information provides graphic data of current weather conditions along with lists of significant climate anomalies. The site has links to weather records and tools. All of these sites rely on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for their data. There are equivalent agencies all over the world. The World Meteorological Organization, part of the United Nations, is also a valuable resource for data.

scholarly journals Regional changes in extreme heat events in China under stabilized 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 198-209 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gu-Wei ZHANG ◽  
Gang ZENG ◽  
Vedaste Iyakaremye ◽  
Qing-Long YOU
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Extreme Heat Events ◽  
Heat Events

scholarly journals Changes in extreme temperature over China when global warming stabilized at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Cenxiao Sun ◽  
Zhihong Jiang ◽  
Wei Li ◽  
Qiyao Hou ◽  
Laurent Li
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Cold Event ◽  
Southeast China ◽  
Transient Simulations ◽  
Cold Events ◽  
Extreme Cold

Abstract The 1.5 °C global warming target proposed by the Paris Agreement has raised worldwide attention and inspired numerous studies to assess corresponding climate changes for different regions of the world. But CMIP5 models based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) are ‘transient simulations’ and cannot reflect the response of climate warming stabilized at 1.5 °C. The current work presents an assessment of extreme temperature changes in China with simulations from ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) project specially conceived for global warming levels stabilized at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C. When global warming stabilizes at 1.5 °C/2.0 °C, the areal-mean temperature for whole China increases by about 0.94 °C/1.59 °C (relative to present period, taken from 2006–2015). Notable increase regions are mainly found in Northwest and Northeast-North China, but warm spell duration increases mostly in Southeast China. The effect of the additional 0.5 °C warming is particularly investigated and compared between the transient and stabilized simulations. Changes of mean and extreme temperature are larger in transient simulations than in stabilized simulations. The uncertainty range is also narrower in stabilized simulations. Under stabilized global warming scenario, extreme hot event with return period of 100 years in the present climate becomes event occurring every 4.79 (1.5 °C warming level) and 1.56 years (2.0 °C warming level), extreme cold event with return period of 10 years becomes event occurring every 67 years under 1.5 °C warming and is unlikely to occur under 2.0 °C warming. For geographic distribution, the occurrence probabilities of extreme (hot and cold) events mainly change in the Tibetan Plateau, and the extreme cold events also change in Northeast and Southeast China.

scholarly journals Increased hospital admissions associated with extreme-heat exposure in King County, Washington, 1990–2010

2015 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tania Busch Isaksen ◽  
Michael G. Yost ◽  
Elizabeth K. Hom ◽  
You Ren ◽  
Hilary Lyons ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Renal Failure ◽  
Acute Renal Failure ◽  
Pacific Northwest ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Heat Exposure ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
King County ◽  
Extreme Heat Events ◽  
Heat Events

AbstractIncreased morbidity and mortality have been associated with extreme heat events, particularly in temperate climates. Few epidemiologic studies have considered the impact of extreme heat events on hospitalization rates in the Pacific Northwest region. This study quantifies the historic (May to September 1990–2010) heat-morbidity relationship in the most populous Pacific Northwest County, King County, Washington. A relative risk (RR) analysis was used to explore the association between heat and all non-traumatic hospitalizations on 99th percentile heat days, whereas a time series analysis using a piecewise linear model approximation was used to estimate the effect of heat intensity on hospitalizations, adjusted for temporal trends and day of the week. A non-statistically significant 2% [95% CI: 1.02 (0.98, 1.05)] increase in hospitalization risk, on a heat day vs. a non-heat day, was noted for all-ages and all non-traumatic causes. When considering the effect of heat intensity on admissions, we found a statistically significant 1.59% (95% CI: 0.9%, 2.29%) increase in admissions per degree increase in humidex above 37.4°C. Admissions stratified by cause and age produced statistically significant results with both relative risk and time series analyses for nephritis and nephrotic syndromes, acute renal failure, and natural heat exposure hospitalizations. This study demonstrates that heat, expressed as humidex, is associated with increased hospital admissions. When stratified by age and cause of admission, the non-elderly age groups (<85 years) experience significant risk for nephritis and nephrotic syndromes, acute renal failure, natural heat exposure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and asthma hospitalizations.

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