scholarly journals Overview of Existing Heat-Health Warning Systems in Europe

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (15) ◽  
pp. 2657 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana Casanueva ◽  
Annkatrin Burgstall ◽  
Sven Kotlarski ◽  
Alessandro Messeri ◽  
Marco Morabito ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Web Search ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Action Plans ◽  
Human Beings ◽  
Health Warning ◽  
Horizon 2020 ◽  
Extreme Heat Events ◽  
The Impact

The frequency of extreme heat events, such as the summer of 2003 in Europe, and their corresponding consequences for human beings are expected to increase under a warmer climate. The joint collaboration of institutional agencies and multidisciplinary approaches is essential for a successful development of heat-health warning systems and action plans which can reduce the impacts of extreme heat on the population. The present work constitutes a state-of-the-art review of 16 European heat-health warning systems and heat-health action plans, based on the existing literature, web search (over the National Meteorological Services websites) and questionnaires. The aim of this study is to pave the way for future heat-health warning systems, such as the one currently under development in the framework of the Horizon 2020 HEAT-SHIELD project. Some aspects are highlighted among the variety of examined European warning systems. The meteorological variables that trigger the warnings should present a clear link with the impact under consideration and should be chosen depending on the purpose and target of the warnings. Setting long-term planning actions as well as pre-alert levels might prevent and reduce damages due to heat. Finally, education and communication are key elements of the success of a warning system.

scholarly journals A heat-health watch and warning system with extended season and evolving thresholds

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahamat Abdelkerim Issa ◽  
Fateh Chebana ◽  
Pierre Masselot ◽  
Céline Campagna ◽  
Éric Lavigne ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Extreme Heat Events ◽  
Watch And Warning System

Abstract Background Many countries have developed heat-health watch and warning systems (HHWWS) or early-warning systems to mitigate the health consequences of extreme heat events. HHWWS usually focuses on the four hottest months of the year and imposes the same threshold over these months. However, according to climate projections, the warm season is expected to extend and/or shift. Some studies demonstrated that health impacts of heat waves are more severe when the human body is not acclimatized to the heat. In order to adapt those systems to potential heat waves occurring outside the hottest months of the season, this study proposes specific health-based monthly heat indicators and thresholds over an extended season from April to October in the northern hemisphere. Methods The proposed approach, an adoption and extension of the HHWWS methodology currently implemented in Quebec (Canada). The latter is developed and applied to the Greater Montreal area (current population 4.3 million) based on historical health and meteorological data over the years. This approach consists of determining excess mortality episodes and then choosing monthly indicators and thresholds that may involve excess mortality. Results We obtain thresholds for the maximum and minimum temperature couple (in °C) that range from (respectively, 23 and 12) in April, to (32 and 21) in July and back to (25 and 13) in October. The resulting HHWWS is flexible, with health-related thresholds taking into account the seasonality and the monthly variability of temperatures over an extended summer season. Conclusions This adaptive and more realistic system has the potential to prevent, by data-driven health alerts, heat-related mortality outside the typical July–August months of heat waves. The proposed methodology is general and can be applied to other regions and situations based on their characteristics.

scholarly journals Performances of Limited Area Models for the WORKLIMATE Heat–Health Warning System to Protect Worker’s Health and Productivity in Italy

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (18) ◽  
pp. 9940
Author(s):  
Daniele Grifoni ◽  
Alessandro Messeri ◽  
Alfonso Crisci ◽  
Michela Bonafede ◽  
Francesco Pasi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heat Stress ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Outdoor Environment ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Stress Indicators ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Health Warning ◽  
Globe Temperature ◽  
Meteorological Models

Outdoor workers are particularly exposed to climate conditions, and in particular, the increase of environmental temperature directly affects their health and productivity. For these reasons, in recent years, heat-health warning systems have been developed for workers generally using heat stress indicators obtained by the combination of meteorological parameters to describe the thermal stress induced by the outdoor environment on the human body. There are several studies on the verification of the parameters predicted by meteorological models, but very few relating to the validation of heat stress indicators. This study aims to verify the performance of two limited area models, with different spatial resolution, potentially applicable in the occupational heat health warning system developed within the WORKLIMATE project for the Italian territory. A comparison between the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature predicted by the models and that obtained by data from 28 weather stations was carried out over about three summer seasons in different daily time slots, using the most common skill of performance. The two meteorological models were overall comparable for much of the Italian explored territory, while major limits have emerged in areas with complex topography. This study demonstrated the applicability of limited area models in occupational heat health warning systems.

scholarly journals Assessing the use and understanding of the Portuguese Heat–Health Warning System (ÍCARO)

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (Supplement_4) ◽  
Author(s):  
A Leite ◽  
A J Santos ◽  
S Silva ◽  
B Nunes ◽  
R Mexia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Local Level ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Action Plans ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Health Warning ◽  
Key Stakeholders ◽  
Level Information ◽  
Health Action ◽  
Mortality Forecasts ◽  
Related Mortality

Abstract Background Heatwaves can lead to increased mortality. Portugal has a Heat-Health Warning System (HHWS) in place (ÍCARO system). Researchers at the Instituto Ricardo Jorge send a daily report with heat-related mortality forecasts to key stakeholders (e.g. Heat-Health Action Plans (HHAP) staff). HHAP practitioners issue warnings and implement measures to prevent heatwaves-related mortality. ICARO is amongst the recommended data sources to assess risk and issue warnings but its use and understanding is unknown. Therefore, we aimed to assess ÍCARO’s use and understanding by key HHAP practitioners. Methods We conducted semi-structured interviews with national and regional HHAP practitioners. Interviews were recorded, transcribed, and analysed using thematic content analysis. Intercoder reliability was applied to a sample of segments from 5 of 6 interviews. Results We conducted 6 interviews with 9 professionals (mean time 52 minutes). We identified 4 categories: Report’s content and presentation, Report’s reception and communication, ÍCARO and risk assessment, Other issues. Practitioners use ÍCARO and perceived it as very relevant tool. However, they mentioned several questions on its interpretation. Practitioners also felt their questions were not fully answered, given researchers’ use of statistical terms. Finally, practitioners referred the need to assess risk at the local level, information not currently provided. We also identified the need for improved communication and report’s clarity. Conclusions Our study stresses the need for an integrated collaboration between experts within HHWS and HHAP. Despite ICARO’s understanding being challenging, practitioners consider it a relevant tool. Researchers should use less statistical language and clarify ÍCARO interpretation. Practitioners’ needs should be considered when developing or revising tools. We are currently implementing some of these recommendations in an attempt to close the gap between researchers and practitioners. Key messages Portuguese Heat–Health Action Plans practitioners use heat-related mortality forecasts (ICARO) and perceived it as very relevant instrument. However there find ICARO’s interpretation challenging. Portuguese Heat/Health Action Plans Practitioners’ needs should be considered when revising or developing tools, and notes should be added to clarify statistical/technical concepts.

scholarly journals A Heat-Health Watch and Warning System with Extended Season and Evolving Thresholds.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahamat Abdelkerim Issa ◽  
Fateh Chebana ◽  
Pierre Masselot ◽  
Celine Campagna ◽  
Éric Lavigne ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Extreme Heat Events ◽  
Health Related ◽  
Watch And Warning System

Abstract BackgroundMany countries have developed heat-health watch and warning systems (HHWWS) or early-warning systems in an attempt to mitigate the health consequences of extreme heat events. HHWWS usually focus on the four hottest months of the year and impose the same threshold over these months. However, according to climate projections, hot season is expected to extend and/or shift. Some studies demonstrated that health impacts of heat waves are more severe when the human body is not acclimatized to heat. In order to adapt those systems to potential heat waves occurring outside the hottest months of the season, this study proposes specific health-based monthly heat indicators and thresholds over an extended season from April to October in the northern hemisphere. MethodsThe proposed approach, an extension of the HHWWS methodology currently adopted in the province of Quebec, Canada, was developed in the Greater Montreal area (current population 4.3 million) based on historical health and meteorological data over the years. This approach consists of determining excess mortality episodes and then choosing indicators and thresholds that may involve excess mortality.ResultsWe obtain thresholds for the maximum and minimum temperature couple (in °C) that range from (23 and 12, respectively) in April, to (32 and 21) in July and back to (25 and 13) in October. The resulting HHWWS is flexible, with health-related thresholds taking into account the seasonality as well as the monthly variability of temperatures in the threshold definition process for an extended summer season. ConclusionsThis adaptive system has the potential to prevent, by data-driven health alerts, heat-related mortality outside the typical July-August months of heat waves. The proposed methodology is general and can be applied or adapted to other regions and situations.

scholarly journals An Occupational Heat–Health Warning System for Europe: The HEAT-SHIELD Platform

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (16) ◽  
pp. 2890 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Morabito ◽  
Alessandro Messeri ◽  
Pascal Noti ◽  
Ana Casanueva ◽  
Alfonso Crisci ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heat Stress ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Heat Shield ◽  
Vulnerable Groups ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Heat Acclimatization ◽  
Maximum Probability ◽  
Maximum Heat ◽  
Health Warning ◽  
The Impact

Existing heat–health warning systems focus on warning vulnerable groups in order to reduce mortality. However, human health and performance are affected at much lower environmental heat strain levels than those directly associated with higher mortality. Moreover, workers are at elevated health risks when exposed to prolonged heat. This study describes the multilingual “HEAT-SHIELD occupational warning system” platform (https://heatshield.zonalab.it/) operating for Europe and developed within the framework of the HEAT-SHIELD project. This system is based on probabilistic medium-range forecasts calibrated on approximately 1800 meteorological stations in Europe and provides the ensemble forecast of the daily maximum heat stress. The platform provides a non-customized output represented by a map showing the weekly maximum probability of exceeding a specific heat stress condition, for each of the four upcoming weeks. Customized output allows the forecast of the personalized local heat-stress-risk based on workers’ physical, clothing and behavioral characteristics and the work environment (outdoors in the sun or shade), also taking into account heat acclimatization. Personal daily heat stress risk levels and behavioral suggestions (hydration and work breaks recommended) to be taken into consideration in the short term (5 days) are provided together with long-term heat risk forecasts (up to 46 days), all which are useful for planning work activities. The HEAT-SHIELD platform provides adaptation strategies for “managing” the impact of global warming.

scholarly journals The impact of extreme heat events on hospital admissions to the Royal Hobart Hospital

2019 ◽  
Vol 42 (2) ◽  
pp. 333-339 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kaitlyn E Watson ◽  
Kyle M Gardiner ◽  
Judith A Singleton
Keyword(s):  
Relative Risk ◽  
Linear Model ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Peak Effect ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Extreme Heat Events ◽  
Preventative Health ◽  
Health Initiatives ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Extreme heat (EH) events are increasing in frequency and duration and cause more deaths in Australia than any other extreme weather event. Consequently, EH events lead to an increase in the number of patient presentations to hospitals. Methods Climatic observations for Hobart’s region and Royal Hobart Hospital (RHH) emergency department admissions data were collected retrospectively for the study period of 2003–2010. A distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was fitted using a generalized linear model with quasi-Poisson family to obtain adjusted estimates for the relationship between temperature and the relative risk of being admitted to the RHH. Results The model demonstrated that relative to the annual mean temperature of 14°C, the relative risk of being admitted to the RHH for the years 2003–2010 was significantly higher for all temperatures above 27°C (P < 0.05 in all cases). The peak effect upon admission was noted on the same day as the EH event, however, the model suggests that a lag effect exists, increasing the likelihood of admission to the RHH for a further 14 days. Conclusions To relieve the added burden on emergency departments during these events, adaptation strategies adopted by public health organizations could include preventative health initiatives.

Risk-based modeling of early warning systems for pollution accidents

2002 ◽  
Vol 46 (3) ◽  
pp. 41-49 ◽  
Author(s):  
W.M. Grayman ◽  
R.M. Males
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Ohio River ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Simulation Techniques ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Contamination Event ◽  
Probabilistic Nature ◽  
The Impact

An early warning system is a mechanism for detecting, characterizing and providing notification of a source water contamination event (spill event) in order to mitigate the impact of contamination. Spill events are highly probabilistic occurrences with major spills, which can have very significant impacts on raw water sources of drinking water, being relatively rare. A systematic method for designing and operating early warning systems that considers the highly variable, probabilistic nature of many aspects of the system is described. The methodology accounts for the probability of spills, behavior of monitoring equipment, variable hydrology, and the probability of obtaining information about spills independent of a monitoring system. Spill Risk, a risk-based model using Monte Carlo simulation techniques has been developed and its utility has been demonstrated as part of an AWWA Research Foundation sponsored project. The model has been applied to several hypothetical river situations and to an actual section of the Ohio River. Additionally, the model has been systematically applied to a wide range of conditions in order to develop general guidance on design of early warning systems.

A population-based case–control study of the association between weather-related extreme heat events and low birthweight

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Wayne R. Lawrence ◽  
Aida Soim ◽  
Wangjian Zhang ◽  
Ziqiang Lin ◽  
Yi Lu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Case Control Study ◽  
First Trimester ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Case Control ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Extreme Heat Events ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Heat Events ◽  
Control Study

Abstract Although prenatal exposure to high ambient temperatures were reported to be associated with preterm birth, limited research assessed the impact of weather-related extreme heat events (EHE) on birthweight, particularly by trimester. We, therefore, investigated the impact of prenatal EHE on birthweight among term babies (tLBW) by trimester and birthweight percentile. We conducted a population-based case–control study on singleton live births at 38–42 gestational weeks in New York State (NYS) by linking weather data with NYS birth certificates. A total of 22,615 cases were identified as birthweight <2500 gram, and a random sample of 139,168 normal birthweight controls was included. EHE was defined as three consecutive days with the maximum temperatures of ≥32.2 °C/90 °F (EHE90) and two consecutive days of temperatures ≥97th percentile (EHE97) based on the distribution of the maximum temperature for the season and region. We estimated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) with multivariable unconditional logistic regression, controlling for confounders. Overall exposure to EHE97 for 2 d was associated with tLBW (OR 1.05; 95% CI 1.02, 1.09); however, the strongest associations were only observed in the first trimester for both heat indicators, especially when exposure was ≥3 d (ORs ranged: 1.06–1.13). EHE in the first trimester was associated with significant reduction in mean birthweight from 26.78 gram (EHE90) to 36.25 gram (EHE97), which mainly affected the 40th and 60th birthweight percentiles. Findings revealed associations between multiple heat indicators and tLBW, where the impact was consistently strongest in the first trimester.

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