Forecasting of Lung Cancer Incident Cases at the Small-Area Level in Victoria, Australia

Predicting lung cancer cases at the small-area level is helpful to quantify the lung cancer burden for health planning purposes at the local geographic level. Using Victorian Cancer Registry (2001–2018) data, this study aims to forecast lung cancer counts at the local government area (LGA) level over the next ten years (2019–2028) in Victoria, Australia. We used the Age-Period-Cohort approach to estimate the annual age-specific incidence and utilised Bayesian spatio-temporal models that account for non-linear temporal trends and area-level risk factors. Compared to 2001, lung cancer incidence increased by 28.82% from 1353 to 1743 cases for men and 78.79% from 759 to 1357 cases for women in 2018. Lung cancer counts are expected to reach 2515 cases for men and 1909 cases for women in 2028, with a corresponding 44% and 41% increase. The majority of LGAs are projected to have an increasing trend for both men and women by 2028. Unexplained area-level spatial variation substantially reduced after adjusting for the elderly population in the model. Male and female lung cancer cases are projected to rise at the state level and in each LGA in the next ten years. Population growth and an ageing population largely contributed to this rise.

Download Full-text

Lung Cancer in Elderly Patients: An Analysis of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Database

Journal of Clinical Oncology ◽

10.1200/jco.2007.12.5435 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 25 (35) ◽

pp. 5570-5577 ◽

Cited By ~ 348

Author(s):

Taofeek K. Owonikoko ◽

Camille C. Ragin ◽

Chandra P. Belani ◽

Ana B. Oton ◽

William E. Gooding ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Lung Cancer ◽

Temporal Trends ◽

Age Groups ◽

Local Therapy ◽

Relative Survival ◽

The Elderly ◽

Very Elderly ◽

Younger Patients ◽

Lung Cancers ◽

End Results

Purpose To study the burden and outcome of lung cancer in the elderly, particularly for patients aged 80 years and older. Patients and Methods The national Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database was analyzed for lung cancer outcomes during the period 1988 to 2003. A comparison was carried out between patients with lung cancer 80 years and older, 70 to 79 years, and younger than 70 years for demographics; stage distribution; 5-year relative survival; and survival based on histology, sex, race, stage, and treatment. The temporal trends in survival during the years 1988 to 1997 and 1998 to 2003 were also analyzed. Results Of 316,682 patients eligible for the analysis, 45,912 (14%) were 80 years or older (ie, very elderly); 103,963 (33%) were 70 to 79 years; and 166,807 (53%) were younger than 70 years. The distribution by stage and histology was comparable for all the three groups. Overall survival rate at 5 years was lower in the very elderly (7.4% v 12.3% v 15.5%; P < .0001) across sex, histologic subtypes, stages, and racial categories. Patients aged 80 years or older were less likely to receive local therapy (no surgery or radiation) than younger patients (47% v 28% and 19% for the age subgroups ≥ 80 years, 70 to 79 years, and < 70 years, respectively). Overall outcomes for patients who underwent surgical therapy or radiation were comparable across the three age groups. In general, survival outcomes for the subgroup aged 70 to 79 years were similar to those of the subgroup aged 80 years and older who received single modality local therapy. Conclusion Patients 80 years or older account for 14% (70 years or older accounted for 47%) of all lung cancers, are less likely to be subjected to surgery or radiation, and have inferior outcomes when compared with younger patients.

Download Full-text