scholarly journals Distribution Pattern of Coseismic Landslides Triggered by the 2017 Jiuzhaigou Ms 7.0 Earthquake of China: Control of Seismic Landslide Susceptibility

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 198
Author(s):  
Xiao-li Chen ◽  
Xin-jian Shan ◽  
Ming-ming Wang ◽  
Chun-guo Liu ◽  
Na-na Han
Keyword(s):  
Distribution Pattern ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Mapping ◽  
Landslide Area ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Critical Acceleration ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Landslide Occurrence ◽  
Coseismic Landslide ◽  
Seismic Landslide

On 8 August 2017 an earthquake (MS7.0) occurred within Jiuzhaigou County, Northern Aba Prefecture, Sichuan Province, China, triggering 4834 landslides with an individual area greater than 7.8 m2 over a more than 400 km2 region. Instead of correlating geological and topographic factors with the coseismic landslide distribution pattern, this study has attempted to reveal the control from seismic landslide susceptibility mapping, which relies on the calculation of critical acceleration values using a simplified Newmark block model. We calculated the average critical acceleration for each cell of the gridded study area (1 km×1 km), which represented the seismic landslide susceptibility of the cell. An index of the potential landslide area generation rate was defined, i.e., the possible landsliding area in each grid cell. In combination with PGA (peak ground acceleration) distribution, we calculated such indexes for each cell to predict the possible landslide hazard under seismic ground shaking. Results show that seismic landslide susceptibility plays an important role in determining the coseismic landslide pattern. The places with high seismic landslide susceptibility tends to host many landslides. Additionally, the areas with high potential landslide area generation rates have high real landslide occurrence rates, consistent with dominant small-medium scale landslides by this earthquake. This approach can aid assessment of seismic landslide hazards at a preliminary stage. Additionally, it forms a foundation for further research, such as the rapid evaluation of post-earthquake landslides and identifying highly impacted areas to help decision makers prioritize disaster relief efforts.

scholarly journals Landslide susceptibility mapping on a global scale using the method of logistic regression

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (8) ◽  
pp. 1411-1424 ◽  
Author(s):  
Le Lin ◽  
Qigen Lin ◽  
Ying Wang
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Confusion Matrix ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Mapping ◽  
Landslide Occurrence ◽  
Explanatory Factors ◽  
Five Factors

Abstract. This paper proposes a statistical model for mapping global landslide susceptibility based on logistic regression. After investigating explanatory factors for landslides in the existing literature, five factors were selected for model landslide susceptibility: relative relief, extreme precipitation, lithology, ground motion and soil moisture. When building the model, 70 % of landslide and nonlandslide points were randomly selected for logistic regression, and the others were used for model validation. To evaluate the accuracy of predictive models, this paper adopts several criteria including a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve method. Logistic regression experiments found all five factors to be significant in explaining landslide occurrence on a global scale. During the modeling process, percentage correct in confusion matrix of landslide classification was approximately 80 % and the area under the curve (AUC) was nearly 0.87. During the validation process, the above statistics were about 81 % and 0.88, respectively. Such a result indicates that the model has strong robustness and stable performance. This model found that at a global scale, soil moisture can be dominant in the occurrence of landslides and topographic factor may be secondary.

scholarly journals Investigating the Effect of Cross-Modeling in Landslide Susceptibility Mapping

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (18) ◽  
pp. 6335 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kamila Pawluszek-Filipiak ◽  
Natalia Oreńczak ◽  
Marta Pasternak
Keyword(s):  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Research Question ◽  
Susceptibility Mapping ◽  
Landslide Inventory ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Mapping ◽  
High Susceptibility ◽  
Geological Structures ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Landslide Occurrence ◽  
Very High

To mitigate the negative effects of landslide occurrence, there is a need for effective landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM). The fundamental source for LSM is landslide inventory. Unfortunately, there are still areas where landslide inventories are not generated due to financial or reachability constraints. Considering this led to the following research question: can we model landslide susceptibility in an area for which landslide inventory is not available but where such is available for surrounding areas? To answer this question, we performed cross-modeling by using various strategies for landslide susceptibility. Namely, landslide susceptibility was cross-modeled by using two adjacent regions (“Łososina” and “Gródek”) separated by the Rożnów Lake and Dunajec River. Thus, 46% and 54% of the total detected landslides were used for the LSM in “Łososina” and “Gródek” model, respectively. Various topographical, geological, hydrological and environmental landslide-conditioning factors (LCFs) were created. These LCFs were generated on the basis of the Digital Elevation Model (DEM), Sentinel-2A data, a digitized geological and soil suitability map, precipitation, the road network and the Różnów lake shapefile. For LSM, we applied the Frequency Ratio (FR) and Landslide Susceptibility Index (LSI) methods. Five zones showing various landslide susceptibilities were generated via Natural Jenks. The Seed Cell Area Index (SCAI) and Relative Landslide Density Index were used for model validation. Even when the SCAI indicated extremely high values for “very low” susceptibility classes and very small values for “very high” susceptibility classes in the training and validation areas, the accuracy of the LSM in the validation areas was significantly lower. In the “Łososina” model, 90% and 57% of the landslides fell into the “high” and “very high” susceptibility zones in the training and validation areas, respectively. In the “Gródek” model, 86% and 46% of the landslides fell into the “high” and “very high” susceptibility zones in the training and validation areas, respectively. Moreover, the comparison between these two models was performed. Discrepancies between these two models exist in the areas of critical geological structures (thrust and fault proximity), and the reliability for such susceptibility zones can be low (2–3 susceptibility zone difference). However, such areas cover only 11% of the analyzed area; thus, we can conclude that in remaining regions (89%), LSM generated by the inventory for the surrounding area can be useful. Therefore, the low reliability of such a map in areas of critical geological structures should be borne in mind.

scholarly journals Prediction of the area affected by earthquake-induced landsliding based on seismological parameters

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Odin Marc ◽  
Patrick Meunier ◽  
Niels Hovius
Keyword(s):  
Scaling Laws ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Rupture Directivity ◽  
Source Depth ◽  
Landslide Area ◽  
Earthquake Parameters ◽  
Critical Acceleration ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Landslide Volume ◽  
Landslide Distribution

Abstract. We present an analytical, seismologically consistent expression for the surface area of the region within which landslides induced by a given earthquake are distributed. The expression is based on scaling laws relating seismic moment, source depth and focal mechanism with ground shaking and fault rupture length and assumes a globally constant critical acceleration for onset of systematic mass wasting. The seismological assumptions are identical to those recently used to propose a seismologically consistent expression for total landslide volume and area. To test the accuracy of the model we gathered geophysical information and estimates of the landslide distribution area for 83 earthquakes. To reduce uncertainties and inconsistencies in the estimation of the landslide distribution area, we propose an objective definition based on the shortest distance from the seimsic wave emission line containing 95 % of the total landslide area. Without any empirical calibration the model explains 56 % of the variance in our dataset, and predicts 35 to 49 out of 83 cases within a factor two, depending on how we account for uncertainties on the seismic source depth. For most cases with comprehensive landslide inventories we show that our prediction compares well with the smallest region around the fault containing 95 % of the total landslide area. Aspects ignored by the model that could explain the residuals include, local variations of the critical acceleration and processes modulating the surface ground shaking, such as the distribution of seismic energy release on the fault plane, the dynamic stress drop or the rupture directivity. Nevertheless, its simplicity and first order accuracy suggest that the model can yield plausible and useful estimates of the landslide distribution area in near-real time, with earthquake parameters issued by standard detection routines.

scholarly journals Comparison of Logistic Regression, Information Value, and Comprehensive Evaluating Model for Landslide Susceptibility Mapping

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 3803
Author(s):  
Rui-Xuan Tang ◽  
E-Chuan Yan ◽  
Tao Wen ◽  
Xiao-Meng Yin ◽  
Wei Tang
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Slope Angle ◽  
Susceptibility Mapping ◽  
Information Value ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Mapping ◽  
Slope Length ◽  
Landslide Occurrence ◽  
Conditioning Factors ◽  
Slope Structure

This study validated the robust performances of the recently proposed comprehensive landslide susceptibility index model (CLSI) for landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) by comparing it to the logistic regression (LR) and the analytical hierarchy process information value (AHPIV) model. Zhushan County in China, with 373 landslides identified, was used as the study area. Eight conditioning factors (lithology, slope structure, slope angle, altitude, distance to river, stream power index, slope length, distance to road) were acquired from digital elevation models (DEMs), field survey, remote sensing imagery, and government documentary data. Results indicate that the CLSI model has the highest accuracy and the best classification ability, although all three models can produce reasonable landslide susceptibility (LS) maps. The robust performance of the CLSI model is due to its weight determination by a back-propagation neural network (BPNN), which successfully captures the nonlinear relationship between landslide occurrence and the conditioning factors.

scholarly journals Regional-Scale Landslide Susceptibility Mapping Using Limited LiDAR-Based Landslide Inventories for Sisak-Moslavina County, Croatia

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 4543
Author(s):  
Iris Bostjančić ◽  
Marina Filipović ◽  
Vlatko Gulam ◽  
Davor Pollak
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Factors ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Spatial Relationship ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Mapping ◽  
Susceptibility Map ◽  
Landslide Occurrence ◽  
Cost Benefit Ratio ◽  
The Cost

In this paper, for the first time, a regional-scale 1:100,000 landslide-susceptibility map (LSM) is presented for Sisak-Moslavina County in Croatia. The spatial relationship between landslide occurrence and landslide predictive factors (engineering geological units, relief, roughness, and distance to streams) is assessed using the integration of a statistically based frequency ratio (FR) into the analytical hierarchy process (AHP). Due to the lack of landslide inventory for the county, LiDAR-based inventories are completed for an area of 132 km2. From 1238 landslides, 549 are chosen to calculate the LSM and 689 for its verification. Additionally, landslides digitized from available geological maps and reported via the web portal “Report a landslide” are used for verification. The county is classified into four susceptibility classes, covering 36% with very-high and high and 64% with moderate and low susceptibility zones. The presented approach, using limited LiDAR data and the extrapolation of the correlation results to the entire county, is encouraging for primary regional-level studies, justifying the cost-benefit ratio. Still, the positioning of LiDAR polygons prerequires a basic statistical analysis of predictive factors.

scholarly journals The contribution of EMCA to landslide susceptibility mapping in Central Asia

2015 ◽  
Vol 58 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Annamaria Saponaro ◽  
Marco Pilz ◽  
Dino Bindi ◽  
Stefano Parolai
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Landslide Hazard ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Mapping ◽  
Large Variability ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Potential Factors

<p>Central Asia is one of the most exposed regions in the world to landslide hazard. The large variability of local geological materials, together with the difficulties in forecasting heavy precipitation locally and in quantifying the level of ground shaking, call for harmonized procedures to better quantify the hazard and the negative impact of slope failures across the Central Asian countries. As a first step towards a quantitative landslide hazard and risk assessment, a landslide susceptibility analysis at regional scale has been carried out, by benefitting of novel seismic hazard outcomes reached in the frame of Earthquake Model Central Asia (EMCA) project. By combining information coming from diverse potential factors, it is possible to detect areas where a potential for landslides exists. Initial results allow the identification of areas that are more susceptible to landslides with a level of accuracy greater than 70%. The presented method is, therefore, capable of supporting land planning activities at the regional scale in places where only scarce data are available.</p>

scholarly journals Developing a Landslide Susceptibility Map Using the Analytic Hierarchical Process in Ta Van and Hau Thao Communes, Sapa, Vietnam

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 529-538
Author(s):  
Thi Thanh Thuy Le ◽  
The Viet Tran ◽  
Viet Hung Hoang ◽  
Van Truong Bui ◽  
Thi Kien Trinh Bui ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Mapping ◽  
Slope Aspect ◽  
Susceptibility Map ◽  
High Susceptibility ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Map ◽  
Landslide Occurrence ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Geological Conditions ◽  
Very High

Landslides are considered one of the most serious problems in the mountainous regions of the northern part of Vietnam due to the special topographic and geological conditions associated with the occurrence of tropical storms, steep slopes on hillsides, and human activities. This study initially identified areas susceptible to landslides in Ta Van Commune, Sapa District, Lao Cai Region using Analytical Hierarchy Analysis. Ten triggering and conditioning parameters were analyzed: elevation, slope, aspect, lithology, valley depth, relief amplitude, distance to roads, distance to faults, land use, and precipitation. The consistency index (CI) was 0.0995, indicating that no inconsistency in the decision-making process was detected during computation. The consistency ratio (CR) was computed for all factors and their classes were less than 0.1. The landslide susceptibility index (LSI) was computed and reclassified into five categories: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. Approximately 9.9% of the whole area would be prone to landslide occurrence when the LSI value indicated at very high and high landslide susceptibility. The area under curve (AUC) of 0.75 illustrated that the used model provided good results for landslide susceptibility mapping in the study area. The results revealed that the predicted susceptibility levels were in good agreement with past landslides. The output also illustrated a gradual decrease in the density of landslide from the very high to the very low susceptible regions, which showed a considerable separation in the density values. Among the five classes, the highest landslide density of 0.01274 belonged to the very high susceptibility zone, followed by 0.00272 for the high susceptibility zone. The landslide susceptibility map presented in this paper would help local authorities adequately plan their landslide management process, especially in the very high and high susceptible zones.

Analysis of earthquake triggered landslides with slope geometry and 3D coseismic deformation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ru Liu ◽  
Teng Wang
Keyword(s):  
Coseismic Deformation ◽  
Mountainous Area ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
2008 Wenchuan Earthquake ◽  
2015 Gorkha Earthquake ◽  
Sar Imaging ◽  
Coseismic Landslide ◽  
Kaikoura Earthquake ◽  
Large Earthquakes

&lt;p&gt;In mountainous areas, triggering of landslides is one of the main reasons for causing casualties during large earthquakes. These landslides are also important for shaping the landscapes by transporting large volume of sediment from slopes to catchments. The dynamic landslide triggering mechanism have been well studies with seismic derived rupture processes and ground shaking simulations. However, whether the static coseismic displacements play a role is less investigated. Here, given the high-resolution 3D coseismic displacements of three large earthquakes, we study how landslides with different slope and aspect angles response to the directions and magnitudes of coseismic displacements, in order to better understand the landslides distribution along ruptured faults.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China, the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal, and the 2016 Kaikoura earthquake in New Zealand all triggered numerous landslides distributed in the epicenter regions. The locations of these landslides have been carefully mapped by remote sensing and field investigations. Their coseismic displacements have also been well captured by Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imaging geodesy from different geometries. Surrounding each coseismic landslide, we can calculate the 3D coseismic displacements from SAR images. Their slope and aspect angles can be obtained from topography data. For nearby landslides with similar peak ground acceleration, we can project the 3D displacement along and normal to the sliding slops, and then quantitively evaluate which slope geometry favors triggering landslides. Our geostatistical analysis can help hazards mitigation in mountainous area with threads of seismic events, and also shed lights on understanding the role of landslides in shaping the topography.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Key Words: SAR imaging geodesy; coseismic landslide; coseismic deformation&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals GIS and statistical analysis for landslide susceptibility mapping in the Daunia area, Italy

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 1851-1864 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Mancini ◽  
C. Ceppi ◽  
G. Ritrovato
Keyword(s):  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Susceptibility Mapping ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
Landslide Inventory ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Mapping ◽  
Susceptibility Map ◽  
Multivariate Statistical ◽  
Causal Factors ◽  
Landslide Occurrence ◽  
Local Comparison

Abstract. This study focuses on landslide susceptibility mapping in the Daunia area (Apulian Apennines, Italy) and achieves this by using a multivariate statistical method and data processing in a Geographical Information System (GIS). The Logistic Regression (hereafter LR) method was chosen to produce a susceptibility map over an area of 130 000 ha where small settlements are historically threatened by landslide phenomena. By means of LR analysis, the tendency to landslide occurrences was, therefore, assessed by relating a landslide inventory (dependent variable) to a series of causal factors (independent variables) which were managed in the GIS, while the statistical analyses were performed by means of the SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences) software. The LR analysis produced a reliable susceptibility map of the investigated area and the probability level of landslide occurrence was ranked in four classes. The overall performance achieved by the LR analysis was assessed by local comparison between the expected susceptibility and an independent dataset extrapolated from the landslide inventory. Of the samples classified as susceptible to landslide occurrences, 85% correspond to areas where landslide phenomena have actually occurred. In addition, the consideration of the regression coefficients provided by the analysis demonstrated that a major role is played by the "land cover" and "lithology" causal factors in determining the occurrence and distribution of landslide phenomena in the Apulian Apennines.

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