scholarly journals The Role of Beach Morphology and Mid-Century Climate Change Effects on Wave Runup and Storm Impact on the Northern Yucatan Coast

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 518
Author(s):  
Gabriela Medellín ◽  
Martí Mayor ◽  
Christian M. Appendini ◽  
Ruth Cerezo-Mota ◽  
José A. Jiménez
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Transformation Model ◽  
Wave Runup ◽  
Beach Morphology ◽  
Extreme Water Levels ◽  
Storm Impact ◽  
Wave Conditions

Wave runup is a relevant parameter to determine the storm impact on barrier islands. Here, the role of the beach morphology on wave runup and storm impact was investigated at four coastal communities located on the northern Yucatan coast. Current wave conditions based on regional wind simulations, topo-bathymetric transects measured at each location, and a nonlinear wave transformation model were employed to reconstruct multi-year runup time series. Dune morphology features and extreme water levels (excluding storm surge contributions) were further employed to determine the storm impact at each site for different return periods. Despite the similar offshore conditions along the coast, extreme water levels (i.e., runup and setup) showed intersite differences that were mainly ascribed to subaerial and submerged morphological features. Numerical results showed that the average surf zone beach slope, sandbars, berm, and dune elevation played an important role in controlling extreme water levels and storm impact at the study sites under the present climate. Moreover, in order to assess the potential effect of climate change on coastal flooding, we analyzed wave runup and storm impact in the best-preserved site by considering wave conditions and sea level rise (SLR) projections under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Modelling results suggest no significant increase in the storm impact regime between the present and future conditions in the study area unless SLR is considered. It was found that to accurately estimate SLR contribution, it should be incorporated into mean sea level prior to performing numerical wave runup simulations, rather than simply adding it to the resulting wave-induced water levels.

scholarly journals The role of the reef–dune system in coastal protection in Puerto Morelos (Mexico)

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 1247-1260 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gemma L. Franklin ◽  
Alec Torres-Freyermuth ◽  
Gabriela Medellin ◽  
María Eugenia Allende-Arandia ◽  
Christian M. Appendini
Keyword(s):  
Sand Dunes ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Coastal Protection ◽  
Dune System ◽  
Fore Reef ◽  
Extreme Water Levels ◽  
Reef Environments ◽  
Storm Impact

Abstract. Reefs and sand dunes are critical morphological features providing natural coastal protection. Reefs dissipate around 90 % of the incident wave energy through wave breaking, whereas sand dunes provide the final natural barrier against coastal flooding. The storm impact on coastal areas with these features depends on the relative elevation of the extreme water levels with respect to the sand dune morphology. However, despite the importance of barrier reefs and dunes in coastal protection, poor management practices have degraded these ecosystems, increasing their vulnerability to coastal flooding. The present study aims to theoretically investigate the role of the reef–dune system in coastal protection under current climatic conditions at Puerto Morelos, located in the Mexican Caribbean Sea, using a widely validated nonlinear non-hydrostatic numerical model (SWASH). Wave hindcast information, tidal level, and a measured beach profile of the reef–dune system in Puerto Morelos are employed to estimate extreme runup and the storm impact scale for current and theoretical scenarios. The numerical results show the importance of including the storm surge when predicting extreme water levels and also show that ecosystem degradation has important implications for coastal protection against storms with return periods of less than 10 years. The latter highlights the importance of conservation of the system as a mitigation measure to decrease coastal vulnerability and infrastructure losses in coastal areas in the short to medium term. Furthermore, the results are used to evaluate the applicability of runup parameterisations for beaches to reef environments. Numerical analysis of runup dynamics suggests that runup parameterisations for reef environments can be improved by including the fore reef slope. Therefore, future research to develop runup parameterisations incorporating reef geometry features (e.g. reef crest elevation, reef lagoon width, fore reef slope) is warranted.

scholarly journals Assessing the extreme risk of coastal inundation due to climate change: A case study of Rongcheng, China

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aiqing Feng ◽  
Jiangbo Gao ◽  
Shaohong Wu ◽  
Yanzhong Li ◽  
Xiliu Yue
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Extreme Water Levels ◽  
Extreme Risk ◽  
Extreme Flood

Abstract. Extreme water levels, caused by the joint occurrence of storm surges and high tides, always lead to super floods along coastlines. Given the ongoing climate change, this study explored the risk of future sea-level rise on the extreme inundation by combining P-III model and losses assessment model. Taking Rongcheng as a case study, the integrated risk of extreme water levels was assessed for 2050 and 2100 under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios of 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. Results indicated that the increase in total direct losses would reach an average of 60 % in 2100 as a 0.82 m sea-level rise under RCP 8.5. In addition, affected population would be increased by 4.95 % to 13.87 % and GDP (Gross Domestic Product) would be increased by 3.66 % to 10.95 % in 2050 while the augment of affected population and GDP in 2100 would be as twice as in 2050. Residential land and farmland would be under greater flooding risk in terms of the higher exposure and losses than other land-use types. Moreover, this study indicated that sea-level rise shortened the recurrence period of extreme water levels significantly and extreme events would become common. Consequently, the increase in frequency and possible losses of extreme flood events suggested that sea-level rise was very likely to exacerbate the extreme risk of coastal zone in future.

scholarly journals Can Managed Realignment Buffer Extreme Surges? The Relationship Between Marsh Width, Vegetation Cover and Surge Attenuation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua Kiesel ◽  
Leigh R. MacPherson ◽  
Mark Schuerch ◽  
Athanasios T. Vafeidis
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Vegetation Cover ◽  
Coastal Wetlands ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Coastal Protection ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Managed Realignment ◽  
Extreme Water Levels ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractManaged realignment (MR) involves the landward relocation of sea defences to foster the (re)creation of coastal wetlands and achieve nature-based coastal protection. The wider application of MR is impeded by knowledge gaps related to lacking data on its effectiveness under extreme surges and the role of changes in vegetation cover, for example due to sea-level rise. We employ a calibrated and validated hydrodynamic model to explore relationships between surge attenuation, MR width(/area) and vegetation cover for the MR site of Freiston Shore, UK. We model a range of extreme water levels for four scenarios of variable MR width. We further assess the effects of reduced vegetation cover for the actual MR site and for the scenario of the site with the largest width. We show that surges are amplified for all but the largest two site scenarios, suggesting that increasing MR width results in higher attenuation rates. Substantial surge attenuation (up to 18 cm km−1) is only achieved for the largest site. The greatest contribution to the attenuation in the largest site scenario may come from water being reflected from the breached dike. While vegetation cover has no statistically significant effect on surge attenuations in the original MR site, higher coverage leads to higher attenuation rates in the largest site scenario. We conclude that at the open coast, only large MR sites (> 1148 m width) can attenuate surges with return periods > 10 years, while increased vegetation cover and larger MR widths enable the attenuation of even higher surges.

scholarly journals Economic damages from Hurricane Sandy attributable to sea level rise caused by anthropogenic climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin H. Strauss ◽  
Philip M. Orton ◽  
Klaus Bittermann ◽  
Maya K. Buchanan ◽  
Daniel M. Gilford ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
East Coast ◽  
The United States ◽  
Hurricane Sandy ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Sea Levels

AbstractIn 2012, Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast of the United States, creating widespread coastal flooding and over $60 billion in reported economic damage. The potential influence of climate change on the storm itself has been debated, but sea level rise driven by anthropogenic climate change more clearly contributed to damages. To quantify this effect, here we simulate water levels and damage both as they occurred and as they would have occurred across a range of lower sea levels corresponding to different estimates of attributable sea level rise. We find that approximately $8.1B ($4.7B–$14.0B, 5th–95th percentiles) of Sandy’s damages are attributable to climate-mediated anthropogenic sea level rise, as is extension of the flood area to affect 71 (40–131) thousand additional people. The same general approach demonstrated here may be applied to impact assessments for other past and future coastal storms.

scholarly journals Quantifying Uncertainty in Exposure to Coastal Hazards Associated with Both Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies: A U.S. Pacific Northwest Alternative Coastal Futures Analysis

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 545
Author(s):  
Alexis K. Mills ◽  
Peter Ruggiero ◽  
John P. Bolte ◽  
Katherine A. Serafin ◽  
Eva Lipiec
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Coastal Hazards ◽  
Policy Decisions ◽  
Management Decisions ◽  
Quantifying Uncertainty

Coastal communities face heightened risk to coastal flooding and erosion hazards due to sea-level rise, changing storminess patterns, and evolving human development pressures. Incorporating uncertainty associated with both climate change and the range of possible adaptation measures is essential for projecting the evolving exposure to coastal flooding and erosion, as well as associated community vulnerability through time. A spatially explicit agent-based modeling platform, that provides a scenario-based framework for examining interactions between human and natural systems across a landscape, was used in Tillamook County, OR (USA) to explore strategies that may reduce exposure to coastal hazards within the context of climate change. Probabilistic simulations of extreme water levels were used to assess the impacts of variable projections of sea-level rise and storminess both as individual climate drivers and under a range of integrated climate change scenarios through the end of the century. Additionally, policy drivers, modeled both as individual management decisions and as policies integrated within adaptation scenarios, captured variability in possible human response to increased hazards risk. The relative contribution of variability and uncertainty from both climate change and policy decisions was quantified using three stakeholder relevant landscape performance metrics related to flooding, erosion, and recreational beach accessibility. In general, policy decisions introduced greater variability and uncertainty to the impacts of coastal hazards than climate change uncertainty. Quantifying uncertainty across a suite of coproduced performance metrics can help determine the relative impact of management decisions on the adaptive capacity of communities under future climate scenarios.

Modelling the climate change impact on the largest White Sea estuarine areas

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evgeniya Panchenko ◽  
Andrei Alabyan ◽  
Inna Krylenko ◽  
Serafima Lebedeva
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
River Runoff ◽  
White Sea ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Hydrodynamic Modelling ◽  
The White Sea ◽  
Runoff Changes ◽  
Flow Velocities

<p>Possible sea level rise and changes in hydrological regime of rivers are the major threats to estuarine systems. The sensibility of hydrodynamic regime of the Northern Dvina delta and the Onega estuary under various scenarios of climate change has been investigated. Hydrodynamic models HEC-RAS (USA, US Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center) and STREAM_2D (Russia, authors V.Belikov et.al.) were used for analysis of estuarine flow regime (variations of water levels, discharges and flow velocities throughout tidal cycles). Input runoff changes were simulated for different climate scenarios using ECOMAG model (Russia, author Yu.Motovilov) based on data of global climate models (GSM) of CMIP5 project for the White Sea region.</p><p>ECOMAG modelling has demonstrated that the maximum river discharges averaged for 30-year period 2036 – 2065 can reduce for about 20 – 27% for the Onega and 15 – 20% for the Northern Dvina river compared against the historical period 1971 – 2000.Averaged minimum river discharges can reduce for about 33 – 45% for the Onega and 30 – 40% for the Northern Dvina.</p><p>The White Sea level rise by 0.27 m in average (with inter-model variation from 0.20 to 0.38 m) can took place by the middle of the XXI century according to input data of GSM models. The 12 scenarios of estuarine hydrodynamic changes were simulated for the both rivers based on combining river runoff changes and sea level elevation.</p><p>In general, the expected flow changes are negative for the local industry and population. According to modelling results for ‘high runoff/spring tide’ scenarios the flooding area in the Northern Dvina delta will increase by 13-20% depending on the intensity of sea level rise. In the low water seasons the distance from the river mouth to the upper boundary of the reach, where reverse currents can be observed, will move upstream by 8 - 36 km depending of sea/river conditions due to decrease in minimum river runoff. It may adversely effect on shipping conditions at the city of Arkhangelsk and on brackish water intrusion up-to industrial and communal water intakes.</p><p>The reverse currents also will intensify in the Onega estuary (tidal flow velocities increase for 11 – 19%) that leads to the change of the sediment regime and can significantly deteriorate the navigation conditions at the seaport of the Onega town. The problem of the intensification of salt intrusion can arise there as well.</p><p>The research was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (Projects No. 18- 05-60021 in development of the scenarios; No. 19-35-90032 in providing hydrodynamic modelling of the Onega; Project No. 19-35-60032 in providing hydrodynamic modelling of the Northern Dvina).</p>

Afsluitdijk climate resilient with XblocPlus

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bas Reedijk ◽  
Pieter Bakker
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Wadden Sea ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Visual Appearance ◽  
Seaward Side ◽  
Reference Design ◽  
Wave Heights ◽  
Crest Height

<p>The Afsluitdijk forms 32 km of the primary sea defence of the Netherlands. The Afsluitdijk was built as a closure dam in 1932 and separates the IJsselmeer from the Wadden-Sea and North Sea. Because of climate change the Afsluitdijk needs to be strengthened. A higher crest height is required to limit overtopping at higher water levels due to sea level rise. Heavier armour is required to protect the Afsluitdijk from higher wave heights. Because of the historic value of the Afsluitdijk, stringent architectural requirements are in place on the visual appearance of the dam after strengthening [1]. Therefore, a new concrete armour unit was developed to provide protection of the seaward side of the Afsluitdijk. This armour unit is called XblocPlus. The development of the armour unit is based on the breakwater armour unit Xbloc which has been applied since 2004. A saving of 56% on CO2 footprint was achieved compared to the Clients reference design.</p>

Supporting European coastal sectors to adapt to changes in extreme sea levels with climate change

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sanne Muis ◽  
Maialen Irazoqui Apecechea ◽  
Job Dullaart ◽  
Joao de Lima Rego ◽  
Kristine S. Madsen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Extreme Sea Levels

&lt;p&gt;Climate change will lead to increases in the flood risk in low-lying coastal areas. Understanding the magnitude and impact of such changes is vital to design adaptive strategies and create awareness. In&amp;#160; the&amp;#160; context&amp;#160; of&amp;#160; the&amp;#160; CoDEC&amp;#160; project&amp;#160; (Coastal&amp;#160; Dataset&amp;#160; for&amp;#160; Evaluation&amp;#160; of&amp;#160; Climate&amp;#160; impact),&amp;#160; we&amp;#160; developed a consistent European dataset of extreme sea levels, including climatic changes from 1979 to 2100. To simulate extreme sea levels, we apply the Global Tide and Surge Model v3.0 (GTSMv3.0), a 2D hydrodynamic model with global coverage. GTSM has a coastal resolution of 2.5 km globally and 1.25 km in Europe, and incorporates dynamic interactions between sea-level&amp;#160; rise,&amp;#160; tides&amp;#160; and&amp;#160; storm surges. Validation of the dataset shows a good performance with a mean bias of 0-.04 m for the 1 in 10-year water levels. When analyzing changes in extreme sea levels for the future climate scenarios, it is projected that by the end of the century the 1 in 10-year water levels are likely to increase up to 0.5 m. This change is largely driven by the increase in mean sea levels, although locally changes in storms surge and interaction with tides can amplify the impacts of sea-level rise with changes up to 0.2 m in the 1 in 10-year water level.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The CoDEC dataset will be made accessible through a web portal on Copernicus Climate Data Store (C3S). The dataset includes a set of Climate Impact Indicators (CII&amp;#8217;s) and new tools designed to evaluate the impacts of climate change on different sectors and industries. This data service will support European coastal sectors to adapt to changes in sea levels associated with climate change. In this presentation we will also demonstrate how the C3S coastal service can be used to enhance the understanding of local climate impacts.&lt;/p&gt;

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