scholarly journals Positive Liquidity Spillovers from Sovereign Bond-Backed Securities

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 58 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter G. Dunne
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Risk Exposure ◽  
Simulation Approach ◽  
Secondary Markets ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Sovereign Bonds ◽  
Reduce Risk ◽  
Sovereign Defaults ◽  
Country Specific

This paper contributes to the debate concerning the benefits and disadvantages of introducing a European Sovereign Bond-Backed Securitisation (SBBS) to address the need for a common safe asset that would break destabilising bank-sovereign linkages. The analysis focuses on assessing the effectiveness of hedges incurred while making markets in individual euro area sovereign bonds by taking offsetting positions in one or more of the SBBS tranches. Tranche yields are estimated using a simulation approach. This involves the generation of sovereign defaults and allocation of the combined credit risk premium of all the sovereigns, at the end of each day, to the SBBS tranches according to the seniority of claims under the proposed securitisation. Optimal hedging with SBBS is found to reduce risk exposures substantially in normal market conditions. In volatile conditions, hedging is not very effective but leaves dealers exposed to mostly idiosyncratic risks. These remaining risks largely disappear if dealers are diversified in providing liquidity across country-specific secondary markets and SBBS tranches. Hedging each of the long positions in a portfolio of individual sovereigns results in a risk exposure as low as that borne by holding the safest individual sovereign bond (the Bund).

scholarly journals The effect of Eurosystem asset purchase programmes on euro area sovereign bond yields during the COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
George Hondroyiannis ◽  
Dimitrios Papaoikonomou
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Credit Ratings ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Safe Haven ◽  
Sharp Decline ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Perceptions Of Risk ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Sovereign Bonds

We investigate the effect of Eurosystem Asset Purchase Programmes (APP) on the monthly yields of 10-year sovereign bonds for 11 euro area sovereigns during January-December 2020. The analysis is based on time-varying coefficient methods applied to monthly panel data covering the period 2004m09 to 2020m12. During 2020 APP contributed to an average decline in yields estimated in the range of 58-76 bps. In December 2020 the effect per EUR trillion ranged between 34 bps in Germany and 159 bps in Greece. Stronger effects generally display diminishing returns. Our findings suggest that a sharp decline in the size of the APP in the aftermath of the COVID-19 crisis could lead to very sharp increases in bond yields, particularly in peripheral countries. The analysis additionally reveals a differential response to global risks between core and peripheral countries, with the former enjoying safe-haven benefits. Markets’ perceptions of risk are found to be significantly affected by credit ratings, which is in line with recent evidence based on constant parameter methods.

Sovereign Defaults Before Domestic Courts

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kupelyants Hayk
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Relative Ease ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Sovereign Bonds ◽  
State Immunity ◽  
Domestic Courts ◽  
Sovereign Defaults ◽  
Governing Law

The monograph examines sovereign debt litigation before the English and New York courts. English and New York courts are the two main jurisdictions customarily chosen to resolve sovereign debt disputes. The book sets out parties’ litigation choices at various stages of proceedings and provides the legal background against which parties to a sovereign bond may wish to negotiate. The defining characteristic of the monograph is that it examines sovereign debt litigation through the prism of private law. The monograph clearly grounds its analysis in the law as it exists, rather than purely policy-oriented reasoning (albeit it keeps a critical eye on the reasoning of the courts). The monograph concentrates on diverse litigation tactics and arbitrage strategies available to bondholders and sovereign debtors that appear before the English courts. In most cases, private creditors may obtain summary judgments with relative ease. That said, often serious issues arise at the stages of assumption of jurisdiction, determination of the governing law of sovereign bonds or substantive resolution of the claims in English proceedings. Similarly, the enforcement of sovereign bonds against the assets of the sovereign often presents serious obstacles, most significantly the doctrine of State immunity. The book offers an exhaustive account of litigation tactics available to bondholders and sovereign debtors alike. The book is unique in the breadth of its coverage. It examines issues of jurisdiction and choice of law at the preliminary stages of litigation, substantive challenges of various sorts to sovereign debt restructurings and to the repayment of bonds on merits, and enforcement of final judgments against the State and its assets in the post-judgment phase.

Sovereign Defaults Before Domestic Courts

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hayk Kupelyants
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Relative Ease ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Sovereign Bonds ◽  
State Immunity ◽  
Domestic Courts ◽  
Sovereign Defaults ◽  
Governing Law

The monograph examines sovereign debt litigation before the English and New York courts. English and New York courts are the two main jurisdictions customarily chosen to resolve sovereign debt disputes. The book sets out parties’ litigation choices at various stages of proceedings and provides the legal background against which parties to a sovereign bond may wish to negotiate. The defining characteristic of the monograph is that it examines sovereign debt litigation through the prism of private law. The monograph clearly grounds its analysis in the law as it exists, rather than purely policy-oriented reasoning (albeit it keeps a critical eye on the reasoning of the courts). The monograph concentrates on diverse litigation tactics and arbitrage strategies available to bondholders and sovereign debtors that appear before the English courts. In most cases, private creditors may obtain summary judgments with relative ease. That said, often serious issues arise at the stages of assumption of jurisdiction, determination of the governing law of sovereign bonds or substantive resolution of the claims in English proceedings. Similarly, the enforcement of sovereign bonds against the assets of the sovereign often presents serious obstacles, most significantly the doctrine of State immunity. The book offers an exhaustive account of litigation tactics available to bondholders and sovereign debtors alike. The book is unique in the breadth of its coverage. It examines issues of jurisdiction and choice of law at the preliminary stages of litigation, substantive challenges of various sorts to sovereign debt restructurings and to the repayment of bonds on merits, and enforcement of final judgments against the State and its assets in the post-judgment phase.

scholarly journals What Factors Shape the Liquidity Levels of Euro Area Sovereign Bonds?

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 154-166
Author(s):  
Linas Jurksas
Keyword(s):  
Regression Model ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Market Liquidity ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Sovereign Bonds ◽  
Sovereign Bond Markets

Abstract The purpose of this paper is to determine the factors that shape the liquidity levels of euro area sovereign bonds. The values of liquidity measure and explanatory variables were calculated from the limitorder book dataset for almost five hundred bonds from six largest euro area sovereign bond markets. The created variables were used in a cross-sectional regression model. The results revealed that characteristics of sovereign bonds are indeed highly linked with bond liquidity levels, and these effects become even stronger during the regimes of lower market liquidity. Contrary to the statements of market participants and findings of many other studies, the magnitude of trading automation and obligatory requirements imposed on dealers were found to be negatively linked with the liquidity level of sovereign bonds.

scholarly journals The Impact of Bail-in Risk on Bank Bondholders

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (9) ◽  
pp. 105
Author(s):  
Lorenzo Gai ◽  
Federica Ielasi ◽  
Martina Mainini
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Panel Regression ◽  
Yield Spread ◽  
Regression Analyses ◽  
Secondary Markets ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact

The paper investigates the impact of the bail-in regulation on bank bond secondary markets. Using data on outstanding bonds issued by significant Euro-Area banks, the study carries out pooled panel regression analyses to determine the association between yields of “bailinable” and “bailinable” bonds. The paper also analyses the impact of the bail-in tool in relation to bank leverage, which affects the potential severity of losses for bondholders in the case of bail-in. With a sample of 4,855 bonds issued by 45 banks from January 2006 to December 2016, we find an increase in the risk premium for unsecured bonds, and senior unsecured bonds show the greatest effect on yields and yield spread when bail-in regulation came into force. Moreover, a “bail-in severity” premium, related to bank leverage, is identified.

scholarly journals Liquidity risk: Intraday liquidity and price spillovers in euro area sovereign bond markets

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 18-31
Author(s):  
Linas Jurkšas ◽  
Deimantė Teresienė ◽  
Rasa Kanapickiene
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Market Liquidity ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Sovereign Bonds ◽  
Intraday Data ◽  
The Cross ◽  
Sovereign Bond Markets

The purpose of this paper is to determine the cross-market liquidity and price spillover effects across euro area sovereign bond markets. The analysis is carried out with the constructed minute frequency order-book dataset from 2011 until 2018. This derived dataset covers the six largest euro area markets for benchmark 10-year sovereign bonds. To estimate the cross-market spillover effect between sovereign bonds, it was decided to use the empirical approach proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) and combine it with the vector error correction model (VECM). We also employed the panel regression model to identify why some bond markets had a higher spillover effect while others were smaller. The dependent variable was the daily average spillover effect of a particular bond. As the spillover effects vary highly across different bonds, country-specific fixed effects were used, and the clustered standard errors were calculated for robustness reasons. Lastly, the cross-market spillovers were analyzed daily to compare them with the results of the model with intraday data. The analysis was performed with rolling 100-day window variance decompositions and a 10-day forecast horizon for six sovereign bonds and the overnight indexed swap (OIS) market. The results of the created time-series model revealed that intraday cross-market spillovers exist but are relatively weak, especially in the case of liquidity spillovers. As the cross-market linkages became much more robust with the model using daily data, the liquidity or price disbalances between different markets are usually corrected on longer intervals than minutes. Distance between countries is the most important explanatory variable and is negatively linked to the magnitude of both liquidity and price spillovers. These findings should be of particular interest to bond market investors, risk managers, and analysts who try to scrutinize the liquidity and price transmission mechanism of sovereign bonds in their portfolios.

Fiscal Sustainability, Default Risk and Euro Area Sovereign Bond Spreads

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir Borgy ◽  
Thomas Laubach ◽  
Jean-Stéphane Mésonnier ◽  
Jean-Paul Renne
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Bond Spreads

scholarly journals Volatility Modeling: An Overview of Equity Markets in the Euro Area during COVID-19 Pandemic

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 1212
Author(s):  
Pierdomenico Duttilo ◽  
Stefano Antonio Gattone ◽  
Tonio Di Di Battista
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Volatility Modeling ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Daily Returns

Volatility is the most widespread measure of risk. Volatility modeling allows investors to capture potential losses and investment opportunities. This work aims to examine the impact of the two waves of COVID-19 infections on the return and volatility of the stock market indices of the euro area countries. The study also focuses on other important aspects such as time-varying risk premium and leverage effect. This investigation employed the Threshold GARCH(1,1)-in-Mean model with exogenous dummy variables. Daily returns of the euro area stock markets indices from 4th January 2016 to 31st December 2020 has been used for the analysis. The results reveal that euro area stock markets respond differently to the COVID-19 pandemic. Specifically, the first wave of COVID-19 infections had a notable impact on stock market volatility of euro area countries with middle-large financial centres while the second wave had a significant impact only on stock market volatility of Belgium.

Country-specific euro area government bond yield reactions to ECB’s non-standard monetary policy program announcements

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 417-474 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ralf Fendel ◽  
Frederik Neugebauer
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Yield Reduction ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Bond Yield ◽  
Current Spread ◽  
Policy Program ◽  
Government Bond Markets ◽  
Country Specific

AbstractThis paper employs event study methods to evaluate the effects of ECB’s non-standard monetary policy program announcements on 10-year government bond yields of 11 euro area member states. Measurable effects of announcements arise with a one-day delay meaning that government bond markets take some time to react to ECB announcements. The country-specific extent of yield reduction seems inversely related to the solvency rating of the corresponding countries. The spread between core and periphery countries reduces because of a stronger decrease in the latter. This result is confirmed by letting the announcement variable interact with the current spread level.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic forecasting in the Euro area: Country specific versus area-wide information

2003 ◽  
Vol 47 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Massimiliano Marcellino ◽  
James H Stock ◽  
Mark W Watson
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Macroeconomic Forecasting ◽  
Euro Area Country ◽  
Country Specific
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