Spatial-temporal Evolution and Determinants of the Belt and Road Initiative: A Maximum Entropy Gravity Model Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (5) ◽  
pp. 839-854
Author(s):  
Qinshi Huang ◽  
Xigang Zhu ◽  
Chunhui Liu ◽  
Wei Wu ◽  
Fengbao Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Entropy ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Temporal Evolution ◽  
Belt And Road Initiative ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
The Belt And Road ◽  
Model Approach

scholarly journals Trade and Infrastructure in the Belt and Road Initiative: A Gravity Analysis Based on Revealed Trade Preferences

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 52
Author(s):  
Cristina Di Stefano ◽  
P. Lelio Iapadre ◽  
Ilaria Salvati
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Belt And Road Initiative ◽  
Total Trade ◽  
Multilateral Trade ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
Trade Preferences ◽  
Entire Network ◽  
The Belt And Road

This paper aims at investigating whether and how the intensity of trade between a pair of countries changes when they experience improvements in their infrastructural systems. We carry out our analysis considering countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a project specifically designed to promote infrastructural connectivity and therefore boost trade among the countries involved. Our empirical strategy relies on a particular specification of the gravity model, in which the dependent variable consists in an index of revealed trade preferences, calculated by comparing the actual value of trade flows between two countries with their expected value, proportional to the two countries’ total trade. Such methodology allows us to estimate bilateral trade intensity without resorting to the traditional “size” variables of the gravity model, taking the entire network of multilateral trade into account. We then study the possible impact of an improvement in infrastructure on a ‘gravity-adjusted’ measure of trade preferences, given by the residuals of our first estimations. Our results indicate that bilateral preferences among BRI countries will intensify inasmuch as they succeed in coordinating their infrastructural projects.

scholarly journals Estimating China’s Trade with Its Partner Countries within the Belt and Road Initiative Using Neural Network Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 1449 ◽  
Author(s):  
Koffi Dumor ◽  
Li Yao
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Network Analysis ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Accurate Estimation ◽  
Belt And Road Initiative ◽  
Neural Network Analysis ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
The Belt And Road

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) under the auspices of the Chinese government was created as a regional integration and development model between China and her trade partners. Arguments have been raised as to whether this initiative will be beneficial to participating countries in the long run. We set to examine how to estimate this trade initiative by comparing the relative estimation powers of the traditional gravity model with the neural network analysis using detailed bilateral trade exports data from 1990 to 2017. The results show that neural networks are better than the gravity model approach in learning and clarifying international trade estimation. The neural networks with fixed country effects showed a more accurate estimation compared to a baseline model with country-year fixed effects, as in the OLS estimator and Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood. On the other hand, the analysis indicated that more than 50% of the 6 participating East African countries in the BRI were able to attain their predicted targets. Kenya achieved an 80% (4 of 5) target. Drawing from the lessons of the BRI and the use of neural network model, it will serve as an important reference point by which other international trade interventions could be measured and compared.

Does the belt and road initiative stimulate China’s inbound tourist market? An empirical study using the gravity model with a DID method

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 299-323 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xueying Huang ◽  
Yuanjun Han ◽  
Xuhong Gong ◽  
Xiangyan Liu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Belt And Road Initiative ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Heterogeneous Effects ◽  
International Tourist ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
Policy Guidance ◽  
The Belt And Road

This study examines the influence of the Belt and Road Initiative on China’s inbound tourist market, generated from countries and regions along the Belt and Road, using a gravity model with a difference-in-differences method. Panel data for 2008–2016 indicate that the Belt and Road Initiative has direct and significant positive effects on Chinese international tourist-generating markets, but the annual treatment effects are only partly significantly positive. We also examined the heterogeneous effects and mechanism of the Belt and Road Initiative on the inbound tourist market by grouping countries according to the levels of trade openness with China and economic development. The heterogeneous effect tests reveal that China’s international tourist origin countries with low levels of trade openness with China and high levels of economic development benefit from the Belt and Road Initiative. The findings of this study provide policy guidance on expansion for China’s inbound tourism market.

Do China's wind energy products have potentials for trade with the “Belt and Road” countries? -- A gravity model approach

Energy Policy ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 137 ◽  
pp. 111172 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhihui Leng ◽  
Jing Shuai ◽  
Han Sun ◽  
Zhiyao Shi ◽  
Zihan Wang
Keyword(s):  
Wind Energy ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
Energy Products ◽  
The Belt And Road ◽  
Model Approach

scholarly journals AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF TRADE STATUS AND DETERMINANTS BETWEEN CHINA AND "ONE BELT- ONE ROAD" COUNTRIES-BASED ON TRADE GRAVITY MODEL

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
QIAN-NAN ZHANG ◽  
XIAO-NA HE ◽  
MIRAJ AHMED BHUIYAN
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Belt And Road Initiative ◽  
Trade Model ◽  
One Belt One Road ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
Trade Gravity Model ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
The Belt And Road ◽  
The Silk Road

“One Road-One Belt”, (Belt and Road Initiative, BRI) reminiscent of the Silk Road, is a massive infrastructure and trade project, initiated by China; that would stretch from East Asia to Europe, somehow recognized by the international community. Despite of criticism of this project, it is considered as an effective tool for promoting regional and bilateral trade deals. In this paper we have pointed out the problems that hindered the bilateral trades among countries along the route. Based on Trade gravity Model; bilateral trade model between China and the countries along the “Belt and Road” was empirically tested in the article, followed by some suggestions.

scholarly journals An Empirical Study of Trade Status and Determinants between China and "One Belt- One Road" Countries- Based on Trade gravity Model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiannan Zhang ◽  
XiaoNa He ◽  
Miraj Ahmed Bhuiyan
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Belt And Road Initiative ◽  
Trade Model ◽  
One Belt One Road ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
Trade Gravity Model ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
The Belt And Road ◽  
The Silk Road

Abstract “One Road-One Belt”, (Belt and Road Initiative, BRI) reminiscent of the Silk Road, is a massive infrastructure and trade project, initiated by China; that would stretch from East Asia to Europe, somehow recognized by the international community. Despite of criticism of this project, it is considered as an effective tool for promoting regional and bilateral trade deals. In this paper we have pointed out the problems that hindered the bilateral trades among countries along the route. Based on Trade gravity Model; bilateral trade model between China and the countries along the “Belt and Road” was empirically tested in the article, followed by some suggestions.

The Belt and Road Initiative and Sino-Russian economic cooperation: Is there one more chance for us?

2019 ◽  
pp. 47-71
Author(s):  
Petr M. Mozias
Keyword(s):  
Regional Integration ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Belt And Road Initiative ◽  
Stage Of Development ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
Flexible Framework ◽  
The One ◽  
International Transactions ◽  
The Belt And Road ◽  
Current Stage

China’s Belt and Road Initiative could be treated ambiguously. On the one hand, it is intended to transform the newly acquired economic potential of that country into its higher status in the world. China invites a lot of nations to build up gigantic transit corridors by joint efforts, and doing so it applies productively its capital and technologies. International transactions in RMB are also being expanded. But, on the other hand, the Belt and Road Initiative is also a necessity for China to cope with some evident problems of its current stage of development, such as industrial overcapacity, overdependence on imports of raw materials from a narrow circle of countries, and a subordinate status in global value chains. For Russia participation in the Belt and Road Initiative may be fruitful, since the very character of that project provides us with a space to manoeuvre. By now, Russian exports to China consist primarily of fuels and other commodities. More active industrial policy is needed to correct this situation . A flexible framework of the Belt and Road Initiative is more suitable for this objective to be achieved, rather than traditional forms of regional integration, such as a free trade zone.

Belt and Road Initiative: Analysis of Possible Effects on Nigeria’s Economy

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (06) ◽  
pp. 20475-20182
Author(s):  
Ige Ayokunle O ◽  
Akingbesote A.O
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
International Economic ◽  
International Cooperation ◽  
Economic Cooperation ◽  
Belt And Road Initiative ◽  
International Economic Cooperation ◽  
R Project ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The Belt And Road

The Belt and Road initiative is an important attempt by China to sustain its economic growth, by exploring new forms of international economic cooperation with new partners. Even though the B&R project is not the first attempt at international cooperation, it is considered as the best as it is open in nature and does not exclude interested countries. This review raised and answered three questions of how the B&R project will affect Nigeria’s economy?  How will it affect the relationship between Nigeria and China? What could go wrong?, The review concluded that Nigeria can only benefit positively from the project.

The Belt and Road Initiative: Goals and Challenges

2020 ◽  
pp. 167
Author(s):  
Adnan Khalaf i Hammed Al-Badrani ◽  
Hind Ziyad Nafeih
Keyword(s):  
Development Strategy ◽  
Soft Power ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Power Lines ◽  
Belt And Road Initiative ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
Ancient Silk Road ◽  
Main Engine ◽  
The Belt And Road

The Belt and Road Initiative is an initiative to revive the ancient Silk Road, through networks of land and sea roads, oil and gas pipelines, electric power lines, the Internet and airports, to create a model of regional and international cooperation.       It is essentially a long-term development strategy, launched by the Chinese president in 2013 to become the main engine of Chinese domestic policy and foreign diplomacy and within the framework of the soft power strategy, to enhance its position and influence in the world as a peaceful and responsible country.   The study includes identifying the initiative and setting goals for China, as well as the challenges and difficulties that hinder the initiative.

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