scholarly journals Combined Optimization Prediction Model of Regional Wind Power Based on Convolution Neural Network and Similar Days

Machines ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 80
Author(s):  
Yalong Li ◽  
Fan Yang ◽  
Wenting Zha ◽  
Licheng Yan
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Combination Method ◽  
Random Fluctuation ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Model Based

With the continuous optimization of energy structures, wind power generation has become the dominant new energy source. The strong random fluctuation of natural wind will bring challenges to power system dispatching, so it is necessary to predict wind power. In order to improve the short-term prediction accuracy of regional wind power, this paper proposes a new combination prediction model based on convolutional neural network (CNN) and similar days analysis. Firstly, the least square fitting and batch normalization (BN) are used to preprocess the data, and then the recent historical wind power data set for CNN is established. Secondly, the Pearson correlation coefficient and cosine similarity combination method are utilized to find similar days in the long-term data set, and the prediction model based on similar days is constructed by the weighting method. Finally, based on the particle swarm optimization (PSO) method, a combined forecasting model is established. The results show that the combined model can accurately predict the future short-term wind power curve, and the prediction accuracy is improved to different extents compared to a single method.

scholarly journals Exploiting the Relationship between Pruning Ratio and Compression Effect for Neural Network Model Based on TensorFlow

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Bo Liu ◽  
Qilin Wu ◽  
Yiwen Zhang ◽  
Qian Cao
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Neural Network Model ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Computing Time ◽  
Experimental Results ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Compression Effect ◽  
Model Based ◽  
The Relationship

Pruning is a method of compressing the size of a neural network model, which affects the accuracy and computing time when the model makes a prediction. In this paper, the hypothesis that the pruning proportion is positively correlated with the compression scale of the model but not with the prediction accuracy and calculation time is put forward. For testing the hypothesis, a group of experiments are designed, and MNIST is used as the data set to train a neural network model based on TensorFlow. Based on this model, pruning experiments are carried out to investigate the relationship between pruning proportion and compression effect. For comparison, six different pruning proportions are set, and the experimental results confirm the above hypothesis.

Short-Term Wind Power Dynamic Prediction Based on GA-BP Neural Network

2014 ◽  
Vol 986-987 ◽  
pp. 524-528 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ting Jing Ke ◽  
Min You Chen ◽  
Huan Luo
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Bp Neural Network ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Dynamic Prediction ◽  
Power Dynamic ◽  
Prediction Approach

This paper proposes a short-term wind power dynamic prediction model based on GA-BP neural network. Different from conventional prediction models, the proposed approach incorporates a prediction error adjusting strategy into neural network based prediction model to realize the function of model parameters self-adjusting, thus increase the prediction accuracy. Genetic algorithm is used to optimize the parameters of BP neural network. The wind power prediction results from different models with and without error adjusting strategy are compared. The comparative results show that the proposed dynamic prediction approach can provide more accurate wind power forecasting.

Application of the Combination Prediction Model in Forecasting the Short-Term Wind Power

2015 ◽  
Vol 733 ◽  
pp. 893-897
Author(s):  
Peng Yu Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Pso Algorithm ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Generalized Regression Neural Network ◽  
Power Prediction ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Combination Forecasting ◽  
Wind Power Prediction

The accuracy of short-term wind power forecast is important for the power system operation. Based on the real-time wind power data, a wind power prediction model using wavelet neural network (WNN) is proposed. In order to overcome such disadvantages of WNN as easily falling into local minimum, this paper put forward using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm to optimize the weight and threshold of WNN. It’s advisable to use Support Vector Machine (SVM) to comparatively do prediction and put two outcomes as input vector for Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN) to do nonlinear combination forecasting. Simulation shows that combination prediction model can improve the accuracy of the short-term wind power prediction.

scholarly journals A Prediction Model for Ultra-Short-Term Output Power of Wind Farms Based on Deep Learning

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yongsheng Wang ◽  
Jing Gao ◽  
Zhiwei Xu ◽  
Jidong Luo ◽  
Leixiao Li
Keyword(s):  
Wind Energy ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Output Power ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Evaluation Metrics ◽  
Power Prediction ◽  
Short Term

The output power prediction of wind farm is the key to effective utilization of wind energy and reduction of wind curtailment. However, the prediction of output power has long been a difficulty faced by both academia and the wind power industry, due to the high stochasticity of wind energy. This paper attempts to improve the ultra-short-term prediction accuracy of output power in wind farm. For this purpose, an output power prediction model was constructed for wind farm based on the time sliding window (TSW) and long short-term memory (LSTM) network. Firstly, the wind power data from multiple sources were fused, and cleaned through operations like dimension reduction and standardization. Then, the cyclic features of the actual output powers were extracted, and used to construct the input dataset by the TSW algorithm. On this basis, the TSW-LSTM prediction model was established to predict the output power of wind farm in ultra-short-term. Next, two regression evaluation metrics were designed to evaluate the prediction accuracy. Finally, the proposed TSW-LSTM model was compared with four other models through experiments on the dataset from an actual wind farm. Our model achieved a super-high prediction accuracy 92.7% as measured by d_MAE, an evidence of its effectiveness. To sum up, this research simplifies the complex prediction features, unifies the evaluation metrics, and provides an accurate prediction model for output power of wind farm with strong generalization ability.

scholarly journals Short-term Wind Power Prediction Model Based on Encoder-Decoder LSTM

2018 ◽  
Vol 186 ◽  
pp. 012020
Author(s):  
Kuan Lu ◽  
Wen Xue Sun ◽  
Xin Wang ◽  
Xiang Rong Meng ◽  
Yong Zhai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Power Prediction ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Wind Power Prediction

A Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network for Daily NO2 Concentration Forecasting

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 35-51
Author(s):  
Bingchun Liu ◽  
Xiaogang Yu ◽  
Qingshan Wang ◽  
Shijie Zhao ◽  
Lei Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Optimal Prediction ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Long Short Term Memory ◽  
Concentration Prediction

NO2 pollution has caused serious impact on people's production and life, and the management task is very difficult. Accurate prediction of NO2 concentration is of great significance for air pollution management. In this paper, a NO2 concentration prediction model based on long short-term memory neural network (LSTM) is constructed with daily NO2 concentration in Beijing as the prediction target and atmospheric pollutants and meteorological factors as the input indicators. Firstly, the parameters and architecture of the model are adjusted to obtain the optimal prediction model. Secondly, three different sets of input indicators are built on the basis of the optimal prediction model to enter the model learning. Finally, the impact of different input indicators on the accuracy of the model is judged. The results show that the LSTM model has high application value in NO2 concentration prediction. The maximum temperature and O3 among the three input indicators improve the prediction accuracy while the NO2 historical low-frequency data reduce the prediction accuracy.

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