The Markovian Pattern of Social Deprivation for Mexicans with Diabetes

This paper aims to determine the Markovian pattern of the factors influencing social deprivation in Mexicans with Type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM2). To this end, we develop a methodology to meet the theoretical and practical considerations involved in applying a Hidden Markov Model that uses non-panel data. After estimating the latent states and ergodic vectors for diabetic and non-diabetic populations, we find that the long-term state-dependent probabilities for people with DM2 show a darker perspective of impoverishment than the rest of the Mexican population. In the absence of extreme events that modify the present probability structure, the Markovian pattern confirms that people with DM2 will most likely become the poorest of Mexico’s poor.