scholarly journals Analysis and Projection of Land-Use/Land-Cover Dynamics through Scenario-Based Simulations Using the CA-Markov Model: A Case Study in Guanting Reservoir Basin, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 3747 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gebdang B. Ruben ◽  
Ke Zhang ◽  
Zengchuan Dong ◽  
Jun Xia
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Markov Model ◽  
Water Body ◽  
Land Use Land Cover ◽  
Lulc Change ◽  
Guanting Reservoir ◽  
Reservoir Basin ◽  
Business As Usual

Understanding the rate and process of land-use/land-cover (LULC) change in a watershed is essential for managing natural resources and achieving sustainable development. Therefore, this study aims to analyze historical LULC change from 1980 to 2010 and project future changes in 2030, 2060, and 2090 in the Guanting Reservoir Basin (GRB), China, a critical water-supplying watershed for China’s capital Beijing, through scenario-based simulations. Two LULC scenarios, ‘business-as-usual’ and ‘governance’ (Gov), were projected using the Cellular Automata-Markov (CA–Markov) model. Historical LULC trend analysis shows that built-up land increased from 2.6% in 1980 to 5.26% in 2010, while cropland, grassland, and water body decreased. LULC conversion analysis indicates that, in general, grassland, cropland, and woodland were converted to built-up area from 1980 to 2010. The BAU scenario projects a dramatic increase in built-up area, rising from 2296.98 km2 (5.26%) in 2010 to 11,757.35 km2 (26.93%) in 2090 at the expense of cropland and grassland areas. Conversely, the Gov scenario predicts an increase in water body, woodland, and grassland, encouraging sustainable development. Overall, these results provide useful inputs to the LULC planners and water resources managers to elaborate on eco-friendly policies and regulations for GRB.

scholarly journals Analysis of the Future Land Use Land Cover Changes in the Gaborone Dam Catchment Using CA-Markov Model: Implications on Water Resources

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (13) ◽  
pp. 2427
Author(s):  
Botlhe Matlhodi ◽  
Piet K. Kenabatho ◽  
Bhagabat P. Parida ◽  
Joyce G. Maphanyane
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Markov Model ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Water Body ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Resource Planning ◽  
Catchment Management ◽  
Land Use Land Cover ◽  
Lulc Changes

Land use/land cover (LULC) changes have been observed in the Gaborone dam catchment since the 1980s. A comprehensive analysis of future LULC changes is therefore necessary for the purposes of future land use and water resource planning and management. Recent advances in geospatial modelling techniques and the availability of remotely sensed data have become central to the monitoring and assessment of both past and future environmental changes. This study employed the cellular automata and Markov chain (CA-Markov) model combinations to simulate future LULC changes in the Gaborone dam catchment. Classified Landsat images from 1984, 1995, 2005 and 2015 were used to simulate the likely LULCs in 2015 and 2035. Model validation compared the simulated and observed LULCs of 2015 and showed a high level of agreement with Kappa variation estimates of Kno (0.82), Kloc (0.82) and Kstandard (0.76). Simulation results indicated a projected increase of 26.09%, 65.65% and 55.78% in cropland, built-up and bare land categories between 2015 and 2035, respectively. Reductions of 16.03%, 28.76% and 21.89% in areal coverage are expected for shrubland, tree savanna and water body categories, respectively. An increase in built-up and cropland areas is anticipated in order to meet the population’s demand for residential, industry and food production, which should be taken into consideration in future plans for the sustainability of the catchment. In addition, this may lead to water quality and quantity (both surface and groundwater) deterioration in the catchment. Moreover, water body reductions may contribute to water shortages and exacerbate droughts in an already water-stressed catchment. The loss of vegetal cover and an increase in built-up areas may result in increased runoff incidents, leading to flash floods. The output of the study provides useful information for land use planners and water resource managers to make better decisions in improving future land use policies and formulating catchment management strategies within the framework of sustainable land use planning and water resource management.

scholarly journals Impact of Climate and Land Use/Land Cover Change on the Water Resources of a Tropical Inland Valley Catchment in Uganda, East Africa

Climate ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (7) ◽  
pp. 83
Author(s):  
Geofrey Gabiri ◽  
Bernd Diekkrüger ◽  
Kristian Näschen ◽  
Constanze Leemhuis ◽  
Roderick van der Linden ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Rainy Season ◽  
Hydrological Processes ◽  
Land Use Land Cover ◽  
Lulc Change ◽  
Inland Valley ◽  
Headwater Catchment

The impact of climate and land use/land cover (LULC) change continues to threaten water resources availability for the agriculturally used inland valley wetlands and their catchments in East Africa. This study assessed climate and LULC change impacts on the hydrological processes of a tropical headwater inland valley catchment in Uganda. The hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to analyze climate and LULC change impacts on the hydrological processes. An ensemble of six regional climate models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were used for climate change assessment for historical (1976–2005) and future climate (2021–2050). Four LULC scenarios defined as exploitation, total conservation, slope conservation, and protection of headwater catchment were considered. The results indicate an increase in precipitation by 7.4% and 21.8% of the annual averages in the future under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Future wet conditions are more pronounced in the short rainy season than in the long rainy season. Flooding intensity is likely to increase during the rainy season with low flows more pronounced in the dry season. Increases in future annual averages of water yield (29.0% and 42.7% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) and surface runoff (37.6% and 51.8% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) relative to the historical simulations are projected. LULC and climate change individually will cause changes in the inland valley hydrological processes, but more pronounced changes are expected if the drivers are combined, although LULC changes will have a dominant influence. Adoption of total conservation, slope conservation and protection of headwater catchment LULC scenarios will significantly reduce climate change impacts on water resources in the inland valley. Thus, if sustainable climate-smart management practices are adopted, the availability of water resources for human consumption and agricultural production will increase.

scholarly journals Impact of Land Use Land Cover (LULC) Change on Surface Runoff in an Increasingly Urbanized Tropical Watershed

2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (12) ◽  
pp. 4087-4103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ike Sari Astuti ◽  
Kamalakanta Sahoo ◽  
Adam Milewski ◽  
Deepak R. Mishra
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
Land Use Land Cover ◽  
Lulc Change ◽  
Tropical Watershed

Tracking the Land Use/Land Cover Change in an Area with Underground Mining and Reforestation via Continuous Landsat Classification

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (14) ◽  
pp. 1719 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiaxin Mi ◽  
Yongjun Yang ◽  
Shaoliang Zhang ◽  
Shi An ◽  
Huping Hou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Underground Mining ◽  
Mining Area ◽  
Random Forest Classifier ◽  
Land Use Land Cover ◽  
Lulc Change ◽  
Mining Areas

Understanding the changes in a land use/land cover (LULC) is important for environmental assessment and land management. However, tracking the dynamic of LULC has proved difficult, especially in large-scale underground mining areas with extensive LULC heterogeneity and a history of multiple disturbances. Additional research related to the methods in this field is still needed. In this study, we tracked the LULC change in the Nanjiao mining area, Shanxi Province, China between 1987 and 2017 via random forest classifier and continuous Landsat imagery, where years of underground mining and reforestation projects have occurred. We applied a Savitzky–Golay filter and a normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)-based approach to detect the temporal and spatial change, respectively. The accuracy assessment shows that the random forest classifier has a good performance in this heterogeneous area, with an accuracy ranging from 81.92% to 86.6%, which is also higher than that via support vector machine (SVM), neural network (NN), and maximum likelihood (ML) algorithm. LULC classification results reveal that cultivated forest in the mining area increased significantly after 2004, while the spatial extent of natural forest, buildings, and farmland decreased significantly after 2007. The areas where vegetation was significantly reduced were mainly because of the transformation from natural forest and shrubs into grasslands and bare lands, respectively, whereas the areas with an obvious increase in NDVI were mainly because of the conversion from grasslands and buildings into cultivated forest, especially when villages were abandoned after mining subsidence. A partial correlation analysis demonstrated that the extent of LULC change was significantly related to coal production and reforestation, which indicated the effects of underground mining and reforestation projects on LULC changes. This study suggests that continuous Landsat classification via random forest classifier could be effective in monitoring the long-term dynamics of LULC changes, and provide crucial information and data for the understanding of the driving forces of LULC change, environmental impact assessment, and ecological protection planning in large-scale mining areas.

Interactions between land use/land cover change, forest fires and landscape structure in Sierra de Gredos (Central Spain)

2006 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 212-222 ◽  
Author(s):  
OLGA VIEDMA ◽  
JOSÉ M. MORENO ◽  
IGNACIO RIEIRO
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
Landscape Structure ◽  
Landscape Patterns ◽  
Land Use Land Cover ◽  
Central Spain ◽  
Lulc Change ◽  
Burned Areas ◽  
In Fire

In fire-prone areas, like the Mediterranean, land abandonment and forestation may interact with fire to alter landscape properties and eventually fire hazard and occurrence. However, the spatial interactions among the two processes (land-use/land cover change [LULC] and fire) are poorly known. Here, we analysed the relative effect of LULC change and fire on the landscape structure of an area of Central Spain frequently affected by fire. A series of Landsat MSS images from 1975 to 1990 was analysed to quantify annual changes in LULC, map fire perimeters and evaluate the changes in landscape properties. The temporal dynamics were analysed by annually computing the fraction occupied by each LULC type and landscape structural properties (number, size, shape and arrangement of patches) that might play a role in fire propagation. All of these were calculated separately for the unburned or the burned areas during the study period, as well as for the entire area. At the whole landscape level, or in the unburned area, LULC changes were small, yet the two more flammable LULC types tended to increase, and the landscape tended to become more homogeneous. In the burned area, the area covered by pine woodlands tended to decrease, and that covered by shrublands to increase. Burned areas turned into shrublands only five years after fire. Landscape indices indicative of reduced fragmentation were also found. Both LULC change and fire altered landscape patterns in the whole area to create a less fragmented and more contiguous landscape than in 1975. The changes induced in the whole landscape by fire, in spite of the overall low disturbance rate, were sufficient to closely determine the changes in landscape composition (LULC types) and patterns.

scholarly journals Impact Evaluation of Artisanal and Small-Scale Mining on Land Use Land Cover: Implication for Sustainable Mining Environment in Niger State, Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
H.M Liman ◽  
N.G Obaje ◽  
P. Nwaerema
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Water Body ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Land Use Land Cover ◽  
Sustainable Mining ◽  
Mining Sites ◽  
Mining Environment ◽  
The Impact

This study evaluated the impact of artisanal and small-scale mining on land use land cover as it applies to sustainable mining environment in Niger State, Nigeria. Thus, thirteen different mining locations covering the three geo-political locations were geo-referenced. The satellite imagery of Landsat TM and EMT+ from Global Land Cover Facilities (GLCF) and Earth Explorer (EE) for tri-images (1994, 2004 and 2014) at 30m resolution was obtained to establish the changes that occurred over the study years. Landsat imageries were analyzed with the aid of computer-based GIS ILWIS 3.3. The imageries were classified into degraded land, settlement, vegetation and water body. Results showed that in 1994, 33.4% of the land use was degraded due to mining, settlement accounted for 3.7% and vegetation covered 59.2%. In 2004, 21.1% of the land was degraded, vegetation decreased from 59.2% in 1994 to 30.9% in 2004. In 2014, land degraded to 47.36%, settlement expanded to 16.06%, vegetation covered 24.22% and water body occupied 12.37% of the mining sites. Within the study period, mining sites increased from 30,000km2 (33%) to 48,000km2 (45%) indicating the severity of mining impact. Therefore, the government should develop strategic mining policy framework targeting a sustainable mining operation in Niger State. Keywords: Mining Effects, Artisanal mining, Environment, Land degradation, Niger State.

scholarly journals Main directions in modern research of interaction between climate and land use/land cover changes

2020 ◽  
pp. 38-52
Author(s):  
L. A. Pysarenko ◽  
S. V. Krakovska
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Chemical Composition ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Atmospheric Boundary Layer ◽  
Meteorological Parameters ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
Land Use Land Cover ◽  
Lulc Change

The purpose of the research is to analyse and assess existing approaches in investigation of interconnections between climate and underlying surface. Land use/land cover (LULC) influences climate formation via physical and chemical properties (albedo, roughness, height, chemical composition etc.). Climate in its turn affects land cover by means of meteorological parameters (air temperature and humidity, precipitation, wind etc.) and causes both cyclic and irreversible changes in land cover. In addition, anthropogenic factors exacerbate surface-climate interactions through? for example, LULC change that usually causes an additional release of chemical compounds. The paper distinguishes three main directions of the “climate - LULC” interactions research that is conducted mainly with application of satellite monitoring products, observation dataset, geographic information systems (GIS) and numerical modelling. The first direction implies monitoring and research of cyclic changes and transformation of LULC influenced by natural and anthropogenic factors, using different GIS-based satellite and surface meteorological observation databases. Despite significant technical progress and great amount of studies conducted for detecting dynamics of LULC change for different time intervals, the problems of dealing with cloudiness and shadows from orographic and other objects still remain. The second direction investigates the influence of LULC change on the chemical composition in the atmospheric boundary layer and on the regional climate. Numerous researches were dedicated to the influence of different kinds of surface such as forests, grasslands, croplands, urban areas etc. on climate characteristics and also on fluxes, for example, CO2. The effect of midlatitude forests on climate remains to be one of the challenging and urgent issues. The third direction relates to LULC change modelling and regional climate modelling. For the last decade a spatial resolution of models was considerably increased and, as a result, representation of interaction between atmosphere and land improved. Online integrated numerical atmospheric models are found as the most promising ones. They include "meteorological parameters – atmospheric chemical composition" feedbacks and can consider LULC on global and regional scales. However, some issues still need improvement, namely radiative transfer, cloud microphysics, cloud-aerosol-precipitation interactions, as well as parametrizations of some types of land and their interaction with the atmospheric boundary layer.

scholarly journals Land Use/Land Cover Changes of Ado-Ekiti LGA, Ekiti State, Nigeria Using Remote Sensing Techniques

2021 ◽  
pp. 32-42
Author(s):  
Ajagbe, Abeeb Babajide ◽  
Oguntade, Sodiq Solagbade ◽  
Abiade, Idunnu Temitope
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Local Government ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Water Body ◽  
Local Government Area ◽  
Land Cover Changes ◽  
Landsat 8 ◽  
Land Use Land Cover ◽  
Bare Surface

Land use assessment and land cover transition need remote sensing (RS) and geographic information systems (GIS). Land use/land cover changes of Ado-Ekiti Local Government Area, Ekiti State, Nigeria, were examined in this research. Landsat 5 TM, Landsat 7 ETM+ and Landsat 8 OLI were acquired for 1985, 2000, and 2015 respectively. Image scene with path 190 and row 055 was used for the three Landsat Images. A supervised digital image classification approach was used in the study, which was carried out using the ArcMap 10.4 Software. Five land use/land cover categories were recognised and recorded as polygons, including Built-up Areas, Bare surface, water body, Dense Vegetation and Sparse Vegetation. The variations in the area covered by the various polygons were measured in hectares. This study revealed that between 1985 and 2015, there was a significant change in Built-up areas from 1694 hectares to 5656 hectares. However, there was a reduction in water body from 25 hectares in 1985 to 19 hectares in 2015; there was a severe reduction in the bare surface from 4641 hectares in 1985 to 2237 hectares in 2015. Generally, the findings show that the number of people building houses in the study area has grown over time, as many people reside in the outskirts of the Local Government Area, resulting in a decrease in the vegetation and bare surfaces. The maps created in this research will be useful to the Ekiti State Ministry of Land, Housing, Physical Planning, and Urban Development to develop strategies and government policies to benefit people living in the Ado-Ekiti Local Government Area of the State.

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