scholarly journals Improving Representation of Decision Rules in LUCC-ABM: An Example with an Elicitation of Farmers’ Decision Making for Landscape Restoration in Central Malawi

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (13) ◽  
pp. 5380 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ida Nadia S. Djenontin ◽  
Leo C. Zulu ◽  
Arika Ligmann-Zielinska
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Agricultural Landscapes ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Social Actors ◽  
Land Use Decisions ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Restoration Practices

Restoring interlocking forest-agricultural landscapes—forest-agricscapes—to sustainably supply ecosystem services for socio-ecological well-being is one of Malawi’s priorities. Engaging local farmers is crucial in implementing restoration schemes. While farmers’ land-use decisions shape land-use/cover and changes (LUCC) and ecological conditions, why and how they decide to embrace restoration activities is poorly understood and neglected in forest-agricscape restoration. We analyze the nature of farmers’ restoration decisions, both individually and collectively, in Central Malawi using a mixed-method analysis. We characterize, qualitatively and quantitatively, the underlying contextual rationales, motives, benefits, and incentives. Identified decision-making rules reflect diverse and nuanced goal frames of relative importance that are featured in various combinations. We categorize the decision-making rules as: problem-solving oriented, resource/material-constrained, benefits-oriented, incentive-based, peers/leaders-influenced, knowledge/skill-dependent, altruistic-oriented, rules/norms-constrained, economic capacity-dependent, awareness-dependent, and risk averse-oriented. We link them with the corresponding vegetation- and non-vegetation-based restoration practices to depict the overall decision-making processes. Findings advance the representation of farmers’ decision rules and behavioral responses in computational agent-based modeling (ABM), through the decomposition of empirical data. The approach used can inform other modeling works attempting to better capture social actors’ decision rules. Such LUCC-ABMs are valuable for exploring spatially explicit outcomes of restoration investments by modeling such decision-making processes and policy scenarios.

scholarly journals Impacts of land-use management on ecosystem services and biodiversity: an agent-based modelling approach

PeerJ ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. e2814 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas J. Habib ◽  
Scott Heckbert ◽  
Jeffrey J. Wilson ◽  
Andrew J. K. Vandenbroeck ◽  
Jerome Cranston ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Timber Harvest ◽  
Successful Implementation ◽  
Management Decisions ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Agent Based Modelling ◽  
Land Use Decisions ◽  
Modelling System

The science of ecosystem service (ES) mapping has become increasingly sophisticated over the past 20 years, and examples of successfully integrating ES into management decisions at national and sub-national scales have begun to emerge. However, increasing model sophistication and accuracy—and therefore complexity—may trade-off with ease of use and applicability to real-world decision-making contexts, so it is vital to incorporate the lessons learned from implementation efforts into new model development. Using successful implementation efforts for guidance, we developed an integrated ES modelling system to quantify several ecosystem services: forest timber production and carbon storage, water purification, pollination, and biodiversity. The system is designed to facilitate uptake of ES information into land-use decisions through three principal considerations: (1) using relatively straightforward models that can be readily deployed and interpreted without specialized expertise; (2) using an agent-based modelling framework to enable the incorporation of human decision-making directly within the model; and (3) integration among all ES models to simultaneously demonstrate the effects of a single land-use decision on multiple ES. We present an implementation of the model for a major watershed in Alberta, Canada, and highlight the system’s capabilities to assess a suite of ES under future management decisions, including forestry activities under two alternative timber harvest strategies, and through a scenario modelling analysis exploring different intensities of hypothetical agricultural expansion. By using a modular approach, the modelling system can be readily expanded to evaluate additional ecosystem services or management questions of interest in order to guide land-use decisions to achieve socioeconomic and environmental objectives.

Agent-Based Simulations of Household Decision Making and Land Use Change near Altamira, Brazil

2002 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin Lim ◽  
Peter J. Deadman
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Computer Simulation ◽  
Natural Sciences ◽  
Social Simulation ◽  
Social Scientists ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Natural Systems ◽  
Land Use Decisions ◽  
Human Systems

Individuals who influence decisions regarding the use of land, operate within a complex environment comprised of interacting elements that include both natural systems and human institutions. Individually, the elements of the natural and human systems that influence land-use decisions may be very complex. Within natural systems, dynamic processes, such as the hydrological cycle, and the distribution of biophysical resources, such as soil fertility, influence land-use decision making. Elements of an individual’s institutional environment can also influence the options and incentives that are available to an individual, and thus the land-use decisions that thhey make. Understanding the nature of these complex processes and interactions is a nontrivial task. However, agent-based simulation offers researchers a tool to better understand the nature of these complex systems. The recent development of computer simulation technologies by social scientists has provided a tool for not only predicting social phenomena, but also for better understanding the nature of these human systems. Replicative validity is not the goal of many social simulation efforts. Instead, researchers have focused on developing relatively simple simulations as tools for understanding the properties of social systems and the way in which interactions between actors at the local level results in the emergence of behaviors or phenomena at the global level. In this role, simulation becomes a tool for evaluating assumptions and exercising theories of action. Many of the techniques applied to social simulation can be traced back to earlier developments in the physical or natural sciences. For example, computer simulation has a relatively long history in the natural sciences in applications related to fisheries, forest environments, and watersheds. But recent advances in computer hardware and software technologies have made these technologies accessible to social scientists. Recently, we have seen simulation efforts that have included models of not only the natural system in question, but also the human system with which it interacts. In fields such as anthropology and resource management , human systems simulations are being developed which directly address the actions of human individuals or groups as they interact with a natural system. This approach to simulation is pursued in this chapter.

scholarly journals Theoretical foundations of human decision-making in agent-based land use models – A review

2017 ◽  
Vol 87 ◽  
pp. 39-48 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Groeneveld ◽  
B. Müller ◽  
C.M. Buchmann ◽  
G. Dressler ◽  
C. Guo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Human Decision ◽  
Land Use Models ◽  
Theoretical Foundations

Examining the Implications of Process and Choice for Strategic Decision Making Effectiveness

2013 ◽  
pp. 344-359
Author(s):  
Paul L. Drnevich ◽  
Thomas H. Brush ◽  
Alok Chaturvedi
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Academic Research ◽  
Decision Processes ◽  
Strategic Decision ◽  
Strategic Decision Making ◽  
Political Decision ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Response Choice ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Using Data

Most strategic decision-making (SDM) approaches advocate the importance of decision-making processes and response choices for obtaining effective outcomes. Modern decision-making support system (DMSS) technology is often also needed for complex SDM, with recent research calling for more integrative DMSS approaches. However, scholars tend to take disintegrated approaches and disagree on whether rational or political decision-making processes result in more effective decision outcomes. In this study, the authors examine these issues by first exploring some of the competing theoretical arguments for the process-choice-effectiveness relationship, and then test these relationships empirically using data from a crisis response training exercise using an intelligent agent-based DMSS. In contrast to prior research, findings indicate that rational decision processes are not effective in crisis contexts, and that political decision processes may negatively influence both response choice and decision effectiveness. These results offer empirical evidence to confirm prior unsupported arguments that response choice is an important mediating factor between the decision-making process and its effectiveness. The authors conclude with a discussion of the implications of these findings and the application of agent-based simulation DMSS technologies for academic research and practice.

Instrumentation to Understand the Child Protective Services Decision-Making Processes

2020 ◽  
pp. 81-108
Author(s):  
Alan J. Dettlaff ◽  
Dana Hollinshead ◽  
Donald J. Baumann ◽  
John D. Fluke
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Child Welfare ◽  
Child Protection ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Protective Services ◽  
Improved Outcomes ◽  
Welfare Systems ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Child Welfare Outcomes

When children come to the attention of the child welfare system, they become involved in a decision-making process in which decisions are made that have a significant effect on their future and well-being. The decision to remove children from their families is particularly complex, yet surprisingly little is understood about this decision-making process. As a result, instrumentation has been developed and adapted over the past 20 years to further understand variations in child welfare outcomes that are decision-based and, in particular concerning the removal decision, in order to provide a more thorough understanding of the intersecting factors that influence caseworker decisions. This chapter presents research and the development and use of this instrument, drawing from the decision-making ecology as the underlying rationale for obtaining the measures. The instrument was based on the development of decision-making scales used in multiple studies and administered to child protection caseworkers in several states. This effort is part of a larger program of research that seeks to better understand decision-making processes in child welfare systems in order to promote fairness, accuracy, and improved outcomes among children and families.

scholarly journals Contribution of Ecosystem Services to Achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals

Proceedings ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Veidemane
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Sustainable Development Goals ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
Development Goals ◽  
Water Ecosystems

The sustainable development goals (SDGs) for 2030 are established to address global challenges including environment and human well-being. The SDGs are interconnected and achievement of them requires consideration of the planet’s ecosystems and resources - land, water and air. Ecosystem services (ES) approach has a high potential for better planning, policy and decision making. Understanding how different ecosystems (e.g., forests, rivers, wetlands, grasslands) contribute to the social and economic benefits is critical to ensure the long-term biodiversity protection and sustainable use of ecosystems. A conceptual framework linking biodiversity and ecosystem condition (its structure and functions), and ES to human well-being has been well-established in EU by so called MAES process (Mapping and Assessment of Ecosystem Services) lead by the European Commission. The framework is applied in recent research studies and projects, as well as national MAES processes. Various methods are applied for MAES in terms to determine biophysical, economic and social values and to deliver integrated ecosystem assessment. Assessment of ES and trade off analysis shall provide a new perspective for land use planning and decision making at different administrative and spatial levels and in different sectoral policies. EU and national policies for instance on agriculture, fishery, forestry, climate should account the benefits provided by relevant ecosystems and to ensure that the values are not diminished but rather enhanced during the implementation of the policies. Terrestrial and water ecosystems are interconnected as land-based human activities creates pressure that impacts the conditions in water ecosystems and thus delivery of ES by rivers and lakes. For example, intensive agricultural land use produces food for people and income; however, the activity also most frequently causes problems with water quality and quantity in the catchment area and a loss of biodiversity. A risk of such trade-off shall be handled in policy development. Ecosystems also contributes to the resilience of communities by reducing the risk of natural hazards and mitigate adverse impacts. Regulating services such as flood control are substituting investments in flood protection ensured by forests, wetlands and grasslands instead of human built infrastructure. Appropriate land cover and land use shall serve as a basic flood protection measure. Natural processes are increasingly recognised to create new-type solutions that use and deploy the properties of natural ecosystems and their services in an “engineered” way. A wide range of measures called also as nature-based solutions provide another opportunity to work with nature towards global sustainability.

scholarly journals The Multivariated Effect of City Cooperation in Land Use Planning and Decision-Making Processes: A European Analysis

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luís Carlos Loures ◽  
Rui Alexandre Castanho ◽  
José Manuel Naranjo Gómez ◽  
Ana Vulevic ◽  
José Cabezas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Decision Making Processes

scholarly journals Using a coupled agent-based modeling approach to analyze the role of risk perception in water management decisions

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (5) ◽  
pp. 2261-2278 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jin-Young Hyun ◽  
Shih-Yu Huang ◽  
Yi-Chen Ethan Yang ◽  
Vincent Tidwell ◽  
Jordan Macknick
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Perception ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Natural Processes ◽  
Complex Adaptive ◽  
San Juan River ◽  
Human Decision ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Engineered Systems

Abstract. Managing water resources in a complex adaptive natural–human system is a challenge due to the difficulty of modeling human behavior under uncertain risk perception. The interaction between human-engineered systems and natural processes needs to be modeled explicitly with an approach that can quantify the influence of incomplete/ambiguous information on decision-making processes. In this study, we two-way coupled an agent-based model (ABM) with a river-routing and reservoir management model (RiverWare) to address this challenge. The human decision-making processes is described in the ABM using Bayesian inference (BI) mapping joined with a cost–loss (CL) model (BC-ABM). Incorporating BI mapping into an ABM allows an agent's psychological thinking process to be specified by a cognitive map between decisions and relevant preceding factors that could affect decision-making. A risk perception parameter is used in the BI mapping to represent an agent's belief on the preceding factors. Integration of the CL model addresses an agent's behavior caused by changing socioeconomic conditions. We use the San Juan River basin in New Mexico, USA, to demonstrate the utility of this method. The calibrated BC-ABM–RiverWare model is shown to capture the dynamics of historical irrigated area and streamflow changes. The results suggest that the proposed BC-ABM framework provides an improved representation of human decision-making processes compared to conventional rule-based ABMs that do not take risk perception into account. Future studies will focus on modifying the BI mapping to consider direct agents' interactions, up-front cost of agent's decision, and upscaling the watershed ABM to the regional scale.

Land take in the Italian Alps

2014 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 407-420 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefano Salata
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Local Scale ◽  
Land Resource ◽  
Ecological Compensation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Soil Sealing ◽  
Alpine Regions ◽  
Land Use Decisions

Purpose – Land use change in the Alpine Regions is dominated by two main factors: a process of re-naturalization and a process of expansion for settlements with the relevant occupation of low-valley areas. The purpose of this paper is to present an overview of land take measures in the Lombardy Alpine context and the recent proposals of spatial planning instruments for land resource management. New solutions to limit soil sealing have to be confronted with qualitative proposals at local scale. Design/methodology/approach – The paper collects different research outputs regarding land take in the Italian Alpine context and carried out by GIS software and tries to show the new methodologies available for limiting and mitigating soil sealing, in accordance with DIAMONT aims. Findings – The paper argues that the data are now available to analyze the problem and new operative methods have to be settled in the recent context of European Union (Soil Sealing Guidelines) to support decision making in planning, suggesting land use allocation and possible ecological compensation. Research limitations/implications – The new qualitative decision models have to be assessed for a better ecological integration in supporting land use decisions. Practical implications – An evaluation of land take at local scale caused by land use changes is a good support in the decision-making process of planning. Originality/value – In this paper a method based on a local scale is reported, which can be used for the specific assessment of land take in order to support land-use decisions.

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