scholarly journals Persistence in Self-Employment Rates before the Great Lockdown: The Case of the UK

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (16) ◽  
pp. 6429
Author(s):  
Elisabeth Lopez-Perez ◽  
Ana Rodriguez-Santiago ◽  
Emilio Congregado
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Unit Roots ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Natural Rate ◽  
Probability Of Survival ◽  
Self Employment ◽  
Steady Growth ◽  
Macro Scale ◽  
Employment Rates ◽  
The Uk

A growing body of empirical literature—both on the micro and macro scale—is devoted to exploring the existence of hysteresis—or at least persistence—in self-employment, i.e., whether policy, economic or external shocks have transitory or persistent effects on the probability of survival, and in turn, on the natural rate of self-employment. In aggregate time series studies, the usual method to address this issue has been to look for unit roots by using alternative tests or by using unobservable components models. In this research, we performed a battery of tests and competing approaches to check the robustness of our results with UK self-employment time series. The UK is a suitable case for study because the recent evolution of the UK self-employment rate figures shows a steady growth since the beginning of the millennium. This long-term rise in UK self-employment has attracted the attention of scholars, at least, before the Great Lockdown. We find evidence of hysteresis, while business cycle output variations significantly affect self-employment rates. The article discusses the implications of the findings.

On the effectiveness of state tax and expenditure policies to encourage entrepreneurship

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 523-548
Author(s):  
Donald Bruce ◽  
Elizabeth A. Glass ◽  
Matthew C. Harris
Keyword(s):  
Small Firms ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Entrepreneurial Activity ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Tax Rates ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Entrepreneurial Performance ◽  
Self Employment ◽  
State Tax ◽  
Employment Rates

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to expand the empirical literature on state tax and expenditure policies and entrepreneurial activity in several meaningful ways. Design/methodology/approach The authors update the panel data to include several more recent years and also consider other elements of state policy. Findings The most important takeaway is that even after dealing with some of the known shortcomings of dynamic panel analysis, we are still not able to find economically meaningful impacts of state tax and expenditure policies (generally defined) on entrepreneurial performance. Research limitations/implications Earlier studies that have found statistical significance have generally been limited to extensive-margin impacts on such things as self-employment rates or counts of new or small firms. When the authors examine what policy makers actually care about – things like income and employment among entrepreneurial ventures – the authors do not find much in the way of useful policy impacts. Practical implications To be sure, the authors find entrepreneurial performance to be statistically significantly related to certain tax rates and expenditure amounts, but the magnitudes of our estimated results cast serious doubts on the usefulness of these particular policy levers for generating meaningful improvements in entrepreneurial success. Originality/value The authors’ primary contribution is to improve the empirical consideration of the time series properties of the data. The authors provide a battery of more general and robust analyses to more completely surround the question.

scholarly journals Do regional self-employment rates converge in the UK? Empirical evidence using club-clustering algorithm

2020 ◽  
Vol 65 (1) ◽  
pp. 179-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
George Saridakis ◽  
Miguel A. Mendoza González ◽  
Chris Hand ◽  
Rebeca I. Muñoz Torres
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Clustering Algorithm ◽  
Self Employment ◽  
Employment Rates ◽  
The Uk

Who are solo self-employed women? Analysis of the trends and characteristics of solo self-employed women in Ireland 2003–2019

2020 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
pp. 42-60
Author(s):  
Lauren Bari
Keyword(s):  
Labour Market ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Highly Educated ◽  
Self Employment ◽  
Flexible Working ◽  
Employed Women ◽  
Key Variables ◽  
Employment Rates ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Freelance Work

Abstract Solo or ‘freelance’ self-employment is becoming a more popular form of self-employment in the labour market. In some jurisdictions such as the UK, this growth is being attributed to rising numbers of women – and women with children in particular - seeking the flexibility and autonomy of freelance work as a response to shortages of flexibility in wage-and-salaried employment. Yet little is known about how these trends might be occurring in Ireland and who might be represented in this small but growing cohort of workers. This research uses Labour Force Survey data to explore trends in female solo self-employment in Ireland between 2003 and 2019 and key variables are drawn upon to develop a profile of this underexplored labour market group. The analysis highlights that while growth in solo self-employment rates has been slow and numbers still relatively small, it is increasingly made up of highly educated and professional women in relatively high-paid sectors opting for flexible working arrangements.

Is entrepreneurship a leading or lagging indicator of the business cycle? Evidence from UK self-employment data

2012 ◽  
Vol 30 (7) ◽  
pp. 736-753 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon C. Parker ◽  
Emilio Congregado ◽  
Antonio A. Golpe
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Knowledge Base ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Self Employment ◽  
Cyclical Relationships ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Employment Rates ◽  
Employment Data

Previous studies provide suggestive evidence that entrepreneurship varies with the state of the business cycle. This article extends the knowledge base by exploring whether the rate of self-employment – a widely used measure of entrepreneurship – is a lagging or leading indicator of the business cycle. The study, which utilizes time series UK data on aggregate output, unemployment and self-employment rates, is robust to structural breaks in the cyclical relationships between these variables. The study finds evidence of significant bi-directional causality: that is, entrepreneurship both causes and is caused by business cycles. The covariance of entrepreneurship is positive with respect to output and negative with respect to unemployment.

First Steps towards Self-Employment – Microcredit for Enterprise in Scotland

2014 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 169-191 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neil McHugh ◽  
Morag Gillespie ◽  
Jana Loew ◽  
Cam Donaldson
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Small Businesses ◽  
Enterprise Development ◽  
Grameen Bank ◽  
Economic Strategy ◽  
Self Employment ◽  
Start Up ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Poor Communities

While lending for small businesses and business start-up is a long-standing feature of economic policy in the UK and Scotland, little is known about the support available for those taking the first steps into self-employment, particularly people from poorer communities. This paper presents the results of a project that aimed to address this gap. It mapped provision of support for enterprise, including microcredit (small loans for enterprise of £5,000 or less) and grants available to people in deprived communities. It found more programmes offering grants than loans. Grants programmes, although more likely to be time limited and often linked to European funding, were generally better targeted to poor communities than loan programmes that were more financially sustainable. The introduction of the Grameen Bank to Scotland will increase access to microcredit, but this paper argues that there is a place – and a need – for both loans and grants to support enterprise development across Scotland. A Scottish economic strategy should take account of all levels of enterprise development and, in striving towards a fairer Scotland, should ensure that the poorest people and communities are not excluded from self-employment because of the lack of small amounts of support necessary to take the first steps.

Has the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak had an impact on uptake of digital cessation support in UK smokers? An interrupted time series analysis (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olga Perski ◽  
Aleksandra Herbec ◽  
Lion Shahab ◽  
Jamie Brown
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Smoking Cessation ◽  
Secondary Analysis ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Step Change ◽  
Outcome Variable ◽  
Primary Analysis ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Temporary Closure

BACKGROUND The SARS-CoV-2 outbreak may motivate smokers to attempt to stop in greater numbers. However, given the temporary closure of UK stop smoking services and vape shops, smokers attempting to quit may instead seek out digital support, such as websites and smartphone apps. OBJECTIVE We examined, using an interrupted time series approach, whether the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak has been associated with a step change or increasing trend in UK downloads of an otherwise popular smoking cessation app, Smoke Free. METHODS Data were from daily and non-daily adult smokers in the UK who had downloaded the Smoke Free app between 1 January 2020 and 31 March 2020 (primary analysis) and 1 January 2019 and 31 March 2020 (secondary analysis). The outcome variable was the number of downloads aggregated at the 12-hourly (primary analysis) or daily level (secondary analysis). The explanatory variable was the start of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, operationalised as 1 March 2020 (primary analysis) and 15 January 2020 (secondary analysis). Generalised Additive Mixed Models adjusted for relevant covariates were fitted. RESULTS Data were collected on 45,105 (primary analysis) and 119,881 (secondary analysis) users. In both analyses, there was no evidence for a step change or increasing trend in downloads attributable to the start of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak. CONCLUSIONS In the UK, between 1 January 2020 and 31 March 2020, and between 1 January 2019 and 31 March 2020, there was no evidence that the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak has been associated with a surge in downloads of a popular smoking cessation app. CLINICALTRIAL osf.io/zan2s

scholarly journals Was the Gibson Paradox for real? A Wicksellian study of the relationship between interest rates and prices

2014 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 139-163 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jagjit S. Chadha ◽  
Morris Perlman
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Formal Model ◽  
Natural Rate ◽  
Market Rate ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Gibson Paradox ◽  
The Relationship

We examine the relationship between prices and interest rates for seven advanced economies in the period up to 1913, emphasising the UK. There is a significant long-run positive relationship between prices and interest rates for the core commodity standard countries. Keynes ([1930] 1971) labelled this positive relationship the ‘Gibson Paradox’. A number of theories have been put forward as possible explanations of the paradox but they do not fit the long-run pattern of the relationship. We find that a formal model in the spirit of Wicksell (1907) and Keynes ([1930] 1971) offers an explanation for the paradox: where the need to stabilise the banking sector's reserve ratio, in the presence of an uncertain ‘natural’ rate, can lead to persistent deviations of the market rate of interest from its ‘natural’ level and consequently long-run swings in the price level.

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