scholarly journals Was the Gibson Paradox for real? A Wicksellian study of the relationship between interest rates and prices

2014 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 139-163 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jagjit S. Chadha ◽  
Morris Perlman
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Formal Model ◽  
Natural Rate ◽  
Market Rate ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Gibson Paradox ◽  
The Relationship

We examine the relationship between prices and interest rates for seven advanced economies in the period up to 1913, emphasising the UK. There is a significant long-run positive relationship between prices and interest rates for the core commodity standard countries. Keynes ([1930] 1971) labelled this positive relationship the ‘Gibson Paradox’. A number of theories have been put forward as possible explanations of the paradox but they do not fit the long-run pattern of the relationship. We find that a formal model in the spirit of Wicksell (1907) and Keynes ([1930] 1971) offers an explanation for the paradox: where the need to stabilise the banking sector's reserve ratio, in the presence of an uncertain ‘natural’ rate, can lead to persistent deviations of the market rate of interest from its ‘natural’ level and consequently long-run swings in the price level.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Inflation and Interest Rates in the UK: The Nonlinear ARDL Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 77-86
Author(s):  
Ismet Gocer ◽  
Serdar Ongan
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Fisher Effect ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl Model ◽  
The Uk ◽  
First Time ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractThis study reconsiders the Fisher effect for the UK from a different methodological perspective. To this aim, the nonlinear ARDL model recently developed by Shin et al. (2014), is applied over the periods of 1995M1-2008M9 and 2008M10-2018M1. This model decomposes the changes in original inflation series as two new series: increases and decreases in inflation rates. Hence, it enables us to examine the Fisher effect in terms of increases and decreases in inflation separately. The empirical findings support asymmetrically partial Fisher effects for the UK in the long-run only for the first period. Additionally, this study attempts to describe and introduce a different version of the partial effect concept for the first time for the UK.

scholarly journals Asymmetric Effect in the Relationship between Oil Prices and Activity: An Estimate of the VECM Model for Eight Emerging Countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 92
Author(s):  
Mouldi Djelassi ◽  
Mdalla Omrani
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Emerging Countries ◽  
Oil Shocks ◽  
Asymmetric Effect ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Asymmetrical Impact ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

In this study, we attempt to study the impact of oil shocks on the economic activity of eight emerging countries with different importing and exporting profiles, targeting and non-targeting inflation and thus verify the hypothesis of non-linearity. To do this, we used the VECM methodology. In addition to oil prices (the linear variation and its volatility, positive and negative movements in prices), we introduced the interest rate and industrial production as a proxy variable of the activity. The result shows that the economies of these countries are generally more sensitive to net increases in oil prices than to their volatility. Thus, the asymmetrical impact is clearly proven in the results especially in the long run. If the rise in oil prices negatively affects production, the decline does not favor its reshuffle. Indeed, if increases in oil prices reduce economic growth, their declines have no expansionary effect. In addition, the distinction between exporting and importing countries is not obvious. Furthermore, the addition of interest rates indicates that the first prefigurations indicate a tightening of interest rates by the central banks of the target and non-target countries selected in our study.

A Long View of the UK Business Cycle

2002 ◽  
Vol 182 ◽  
pp. 72-89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jagjit S. Chadha ◽  
Charles Nolan
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
Real Wages ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Nominal Interest Rates ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Uk ◽  
External Sector

We outline a number of ‘stylised’ facts on the UK business cycle obtained from analysis of the long-run UK annual dataset. The findings are to some extent standard. Consumption and investment are pro-cyclical, with productivity playing a dominant role in explaining business cycle fluctuations at all horizons. Money neutrality obtains over the long run but there is clear evidence of non-neutrality over the short run, particularly at the business cycle frequencies. Business cycle relationships with the external sector via the real exchange rate and current account are notable. Postwar, the price level is counter-cyclical and real wages are pro-cyclical, as are nominal interest rates. Modern general equilibrium macroeconomic models capture many of these patterns.

Properties of the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate in the Treasury model

1999 ◽  
Vol 169 ◽  
pp. 96-104 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keith B. Church
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Equilibrium Exchange Rate ◽  
Natural Rate ◽  
The Real ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Exchange ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate

This article calculates the equilibrium real exchange rate for the UK economy. The long-run trade and supply side relationships from HM Treasury's model are used to estimate the level of the real exchange rate consistent with the UK economy growing at its ‘natural’ rate while achieving a sustainable current account position. The model shows that the real exchange rate associated with macroeconomic equilibrium lies well below the actual rate for most of the 1990s. This result has important implications for possible UK participation in the single European currency as, once the nominal exchange rate is fixed, overvaluation can only be corrected by holding UK inflation lower than that elsewhere. Achieving this may be costly in terms of jobs and output.

scholarly journals MEMORY RESPONSE OF CAPITAL MARKET PERFORMANCE TO INTEREST RATES ANNOUNCEMENT: ATHEORETICAL EVIDENCE IN NIGERIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 857-866
Author(s):  
Suoye Igoni ◽  
◽  
Peter Onigah ◽  
Valentine Ike Olisekebe ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Market Capitalization ◽  
Memory Response ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Market Rate ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Capital Market

Despite the management of interest rates by the monetary policy authorities over these years, the performance of the capital market has not been impressive in Nigeria. The study analyzed the memory response of the capital market performance to interest rates announcement in Nigeria. The study used monetary policy rate, and deposit market rate as against market capitalization. The study sourced data from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin between 1985 and 2020. The study adopted the Augmented Dickey-Fuller, and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag for the analysis. The findings showed that, deposit money rate was stationery at levels, while monetary policy rate, and market capitalization were at first differences, and no long run co-integrating equation. The theoretical evidence from the Error correction test findings revealed that, interest rates announcement did not constitute significant variables on the memory of the Nigerian capital market performance. Regular monitory and downward review of interest rates by the Nigerian monetary policy committee were recommended.

scholarly journals Market Power, NAIRU, and the Phillips Curve

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Derek Zweig
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Functional Form ◽  
The United States ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Natural Rate ◽  
Natural Rate Of Unemployment ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Weak Evidence ◽  
Short Run

We explore the relationship between unemployment and inflation in the United States (1949-2019) through both Bayesian and spectral lenses. We employ Bayesian vector autoregression (“BVAR”) to expose empirical interrelationships between unemployment, inflation, and interest rates. Generally, we do find short-run behavior consistent with the Phillips curve, though it tends to break down over the longer term. Emphasis is also placed on Phelps’ and Friedman’s NAIRU theory using both a simplistic functional form and BVAR. We find weak evidence supporting the NAIRU theory from the simplistic model, but stronger evidence using BVAR. A wavelet analysis reveals that the short-run NAIRU theory and Phillips curve relationships may be time-dependent, while the long-run relationships are essentially vertical, suggesting instead that each relationship is primarily observed over the medium-term (2-10 years), though the economically significant medium-term region has narrowed in recent decades to roughly 4-7 years. We pay homage to Phillips’ original work, using his functional form to compare potential differences in labor bargaining power attributable to labor scarcity, partitioned by skill level (as defined by educational attainment). We find evidence that the wage Phillips curve is more stable for individuals with higher skill and that higher skilled labor may enjoy a lower natural rate of unemployment.

The Financial Structure of a Life Office

1953 ◽  
Vol 21 ◽  
pp. 141-218 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. T. Haynes ◽  
R. J. Kirton
Keyword(s):  
Adverse Effects ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Structure ◽  
General Level ◽  
Life Assurance ◽  
Market Rate ◽  
Asset Distribution ◽  
The Relationship

SynopsisThe authors' purpose in this paper is to analyse the financial structure of a life office and, in particular, the relationship between the assets and liabilities of a life assurance fund. This analysis is based upon the principle that the guarantees of future capital security and of long-term interest yield involved in the contracts issued by a life office should be backed either by “matched assets” providing equivalent guarantees of capital and interest or by sufficient free reserves to cover the possible adverse effects of departure from the “matched assets” position.In Parts I and II of the paper, the principle of “matched assets” is studied in relation to three model offices representing stationary and increasing funds operating under idealised conditions. For each model office the “standard” date-distribution of assets is determined–the distribution which, so far as possible, will insulate the fund from the effects of fluctuations in the market rate of interest upon existing assets and liabilities. The profit or loss resulting from “going long” or “going short”, as compared with the standard asset distribution, is then investigated against the background of a rise or a fall in the general level of interest rates.

Does Population Aging Affect Income Inequality?

2021 ◽  
pp. 320-335
Author(s):  
Gürçem Özaytürk ◽  
Ali Eren Alper ◽  
Fındık Özlem Alper
Keyword(s):  
Income Inequality ◽  
Pension System ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Population Aging ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Dependency Ratio ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Relationship

This study analyzes the relationship between the elderly dependency ratio and income inequality over the period 1972-2019 in countries such as the USA, Japan, the UK, France, Germany, Canada, and Italy, which rank top in the population aging, using the Fourier-Shin cointegration test. According to the results, the rise in the elderly dependency ratio of all countries included in the analysis, except for France, has a positive impact on income inequality. The result implying that the rise in the elderly dependency ratio increases the income inequality and renders some policy recommendations possible. Accordingly, the provision of adequate childcare programs and family aids can result in greater labor force participation in the short- and long-run. In addition, a pension system can be developed to lower the elderly dependency ratio, more money can be saved for the retirement period, and working domains can be developed for the post-retirement period.

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