scholarly journals Has the COVID-19 Pandemic Affected Maritime Connectivity? An Estimation for China and the Polar Silk Road Countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 3521
Author(s):  
Gao Tianming ◽  
Vasilii Erokhin ◽  
Aleksandr Arskiy ◽  
Mikail Khudzhatov
Keyword(s):  
Least Squares ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Silk Road ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Market Factors

In light of about 80% of international freight traffic carried by sea, maritime supply chains’ stability is pivotal to global connectivity. For over a year now, the transboundary mobility of vessels and cargoes has been restricted by diverse forms of the COVID-19 containment measures applied by national governments, while the lockdowns of people, businesses, and economic activities have significantly affected the growth prospects of various maritime connectivity initiatives. This study investigates how the pandemic-related public health, trade, and market factors have shifted the connectivity patterns in the Polar Silk Road (PSR) transport corridor between China, South Korea, Japan, Russia, and four economies of Northern Europe. The causality links between the Shipping Connectivity Index (SCI) and the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths, trade volumes with China and the rest of the world, and price indexes of minerals, fuels, food, and agricultural products are revealed separately for eight countries and thirty-five ports. The study algorithm is built on the consecutive application of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and the Phillips-Perron (PP) stationarity tests, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method, the Fully-Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and the Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) robustness checks, and the Toda-Yamamoto causality test. Tight trade-connectivity links are recorded in all locations along the China-PSR transport corridor in 2015–2019, but in 2020, the relationships weakened. Bidirectional influences between the number of COVID-19 cases and connectivity parameters demonstrate the maritime sector’s sensitivity to safety regulations and bring into focus the role of cargo shipping in the transboundary spread of the virus. The authors’ four-stage approach contributes to the establishment of a methodology framework that may equip stakeholders with insights about potential risks to maritime connectivity in the China-PSR maritime trade in the course of the pandemic.

scholarly journals Democracy and Growth Nexus in Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 208-221
Author(s):  
Azwar Iskandar ◽  
Achmat Subekan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Control Variable ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

The objective of this study is to analyze the causality between democracy and economic growth in Indonesia for the period of 1995 to 2017. More specifically, this paper  also attends to investigate the existence of a long-run relationship between them. This study perform a multivariate cointegration test with political stability as a control variable and cross-check this long-run relationship with an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model approach to cointegration. This study also use the Granger causality test within a vector error correction model (VECM) framework and estimate three different models using a non-linear specification: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation, Fully Modified OLS (FM-OLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS). The results show cointegration among the variables specified in the model when political stability is taken into account. Indeed, for economic growth and democracy to move together in the long run, they need to be associated with political stability. The tests for Granger causality conducted show a long-run causality running from GDP and political stability to democracy. In other word, the economic growth and political stability Granger cause democracy. It is the economic performance that influences democracy and not the reverse. In short-run, there is neutrality causation between democracy and growth, democracy and political stability, growth and political stability. These results suggest that economic growth through strong institutions is a precondition for democratization.

scholarly journals Trade, Energy Consumption, Economic Growth and Ecological Quality: An Empirical Evidence from D-8 and G-7 Countries

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Tariq Majeed ◽  
Naveed Asghar
Keyword(s):  
Least Squares ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Kuznets Curve ◽  
Ecological Quality ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Sustainable Environment ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller

Abstract While pursuing sustainable growth there is a need to inculcate the procedure of a sustainable environment for coming generations. This study investigates the association between carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) and gross domestic product (GDP), disaggregate and aggregate energy usage, trade, using yearly data for the time component of 1980–2019 for D-8 and G-7 countries. The study employs second-generation unit root tests namely cross sectionally augmented Dickey Fuller (CADF) and cross sectionally augmented IPS (CIPS). Further, Kao, Pedroni, and Westerlund cointegration tests are employed to test for cointegration. To estimate models, fully modified least squares (FMOLS), dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) and heterogeneous panel estimators (MG, AMG, CCEMG, DCCEMG) are used. Finally, to verify the causality among the study variables the Dumitrescu and Hurlin, (2012) causality test is used. The findings of the study reveal that income, aggregate, and disaggregate energy consumptions (oil, coal, gas), and trade exacerbate ecological quality in D-8 countries while income and trade improve it in G-7 economies. However, oil, coal, and gas usage are detrimental for ecological quality in G-7 economies. The study validates an inverted U-shaped environmental Kuznets curve in D-8 while U-shaped in G-7 countries. It is recommended that both groups of countries need to adopt green strategies and sustainable patterns for growth and development.

scholarly journals Reverse Causality between Fiscal and Current Account Deficits in ASEAN: Evidence from Panel Econometric Analysis

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 1124
Author(s):  
Maran Marimuthu ◽  
Hanana Khan ◽  
Romana Bangash
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Reverse Causality ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study aims to explore the causal relationship between fiscal deficit (FD) and current account deficit (CAD) along with policy recommendations based on long-run and short-run dynamics and sensitivities. A panel data span from 1990 to 2019 is analyzed based on panel unit root tests, panel co-integration with auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL), panel co-integration regression with fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), and causal analysis with the Dumitrescu and Hurlin (DH) technique. The results disclosed that all tested variables are stationary at the first difference I(1) except the real interest rate (IR), which is stationary at level I(0). The ARDL estimates suggested that there is a long-run relationship between tested variables and 92% annual convergence is possible for long-run equilibrium. The FMOLS and DOLS estimates indicated that the CAD is sensitive towards the FD and the exchange rate. The DH causality test showed that the CAD is significantly affecting the FD, supporting the current account targeting hypothesis. Furthermore, it is observed that the interest rate is acting as a moderating factor between the FD and the CAD because it causes both the deficits. Thus, reverse causality is concluded from the CAD to the FD. These results have macroeconomic implications for fiscal policy in the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN-10).

scholarly journals The Impact of Industrialization, Trade Openness, Financial Development, and Energy Consumption on Economic Growth in Indonesia

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 174
Author(s):  
Khalid Eltayeb Elfaki ◽  
Rossanto Dwi Handoyo ◽  
Kabiru Hannafi Ibrahim
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

This study aimed to scrutinize the impact of financial development, energy consumption, industrialization, and trade openness on economic growth in Indonesia over the period 1984–2018. To do so, the study employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to estimate the long-run and short-run nexus among the variables. Furthermore, fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), dynamic least squares (DOLS), and canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) were used for a more robust examination of the empirical findings. The result of cointegration confirms the presence of cointegration among the variables. Findings from the ARDL indicate that industrialization, energy consumption, and financial development (measured by domestic credit) positively influence economic growth in the long run. However, financial development (measured by money supply) and trade openness demonstrate a negative effect on economic growth. The positive nexus among industrialization, financial development, energy consumption, and economic growth explains that these variables were stimulating growth in Indonesia. The error correction term indicates a 68% annual adjustment from any deviation in the previous period’s long-run equilibrium economic growth. These findings provide a strong testimony that industrialization and financial development are key to sustained long-run economic growth in Indonesia.

scholarly journals THE EFFECT OF SAVING AND CAPITAL EXPANSION ON FINANCIAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT IN GCC COUNTRIES

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
pp. 1-25
Author(s):  
Faris Alshubiri
Keyword(s):  
Least Squares ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Technological Development ◽  
National Income ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Growth Strategy ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Gcc Countries ◽  
Causal Direction ◽  
Long Run

This study examined the effect of the relationship between saving and capital expansion on financial and technological development in three GCC countries using panel data from 1990 to 2019. The study used panel least squares, feasible general least squares, dynamic ordinary least squares and fully modified ordinary least squares used in the study. The findings showed that there was a significant positive long-run relationship between capital expansion and financial development and was a positive and insignificant long-run relationship between saving and financial development. Conversely, the study showed that there was a significant positive long-run relationship between saving and technological development. Meanwhile, there was a negative long-run relationship between capital expansion and technological development. Pairwise Granger causality test results showed that there was bidirectional causality between saving and financial development, a single causal direction from Adjusted net national income and financial development and a single causal direction from technological development and saving and Inflation, consumer prices. The main conclusions of the study were saving tends to support technological development, while investment tends to improve financial development. Therefore, GCC countries should formulate a long-term growth strategy in all sectors to determine their development requirements in light of the available resources.

The relationship between foreign aid and corruption: a case of selected Asian countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 692-704
Author(s):  
Muhammad Ali ◽  
Lubna Khan ◽  
Amna Sohail ◽  
Chin Hong Puah
Keyword(s):  
Least Squares ◽  
Foreign Aid ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Foreign Assistance ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run

Purpose The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of foreign aid (FA) on corruption in selected Asian countries (Pakistan, India, Srilanka and Bangladesh) using the panel data from 2000 to 2014. Design/methodology/approach The author used Levin-Lin-Chu and Im-Pesaran-Shin panel unit root tests to check the stationary properties of the variables. The Pedroni’s and Kao panel cointegration approach was applied to analyze the variable’s long-run relationship. The author used panel dynamic ordinary least squares (PDOLS) and fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) framework to estimate the coefficients of cointegrating vectors. Additionally, the panel granger causality test was performed to check the causal relationship between the variables. Findings The results from PDOLS and FMOLS indicate that FA has a significant negative impact on the level of corruption. This infers that the foreign assistance decrease the level of corruption perception index, hence, more corruption in the country. Originality/value Overall, the study fulfills the need to understand the aid-corruption nexus, particularly in the case of the Asian region.

scholarly journals The Impacts of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on Economic Growth in Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 114-130
Author(s):  
Chai-Thing Tan ◽  
Azali Mohamed ◽  
Muzafar Shah Habibullah ◽  
Lee Chin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Least Squares Method ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
The Impact

This article analyses the impact of monetary and fiscal policies on economic growth in Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand from 1980:Q1 to 2017:Q1. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach is employed to determine the long-run relationship. Further, a range of econometric models, such as fully modified least squares method (FMOLS), canonical cointegration regression (CCR) and dynamic ordinary least squares method (DOLS), are applied to check the robustness. The results are stable and robust as all the models yield consistency result. The main findings in this study demonstrate that: (a) interest rate had a negative impact on economic growth in three selected countries. (b) Government spending had a negative impact on economic growth in Malaysia and Singapore, but had a positive impact in Thailand. (c) Monetary policy is more effective in Malaysia and Singapore, while fiscal policy is more effective in Thailand. JEL Classification: E52, E58, E62, C01

ASYMPTOTIC BEHAVIOR OF THE CUSUM OF SQUARES TEST UNDER STOCHASTIC AND DETERMINISTIC TIME TRENDS

2011 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 913-927 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bent Nielsen ◽  
Jouni S. Sohkanen
Keyword(s):  
Asymptotic Behavior ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Time Trends ◽  
Asymptotic Theory ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Nuisance Parameters ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Models

We generalize the cumulative sum of squares (CUSQ) test to the case of nonstationary autoregressive distributed lag models with deterministic time trends. The test may be implemented with either ordinary least squares residuals or standardized forecast errors. In explosive cases the asymptotic theory applies more generally for the least squares residuals-based test. Preliminary simulations of the tests suggest a very modest difference between the tests and a very modest variation with nuisance parameters. This supports the use of the tests in explorative analysis.

scholarly journals Government Spending and Economic Growth in Ghana: Evidence from Granger Causality Analysis

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 50-58 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucy Anning ◽  
Wang Haisu ◽  
Joshua Sunday Riti
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

In spite of the diverse major issues affecting the economy of Ghana over the years, the economy continues to experience a downward spiral in its economic growth. Taking into account three opining views regarding government spending and economic growth, this study sets to investigate the causal nexus fractious and economic growth in Ghana. We apply the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to co-integration and the vector error correction model (VECM)-Granger causality test to evaluate both long- and short-run parameters including the direction of causation with data spanning from 1980 and 2015.The empirical results show evidence of co-integration for the existence of a long-run relationship between the dependent and independent variables. The Granger causality tests, in addition, indicated causal independence between government spending and economic growth within the time framework of the study in the economy of Ghana. Government spending has a cause effect on economic growth in Ghana. However, government spending channeled into a more fractious use with the building of resilience and infrastructural development that are self-liquidating if encouraged will enhance economic activities in the short run and also propel growth in the long run in the Ghana.

scholarly journals The Impact of Imports and Exports Performance on the Economic Growth of Somalia

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 110
Author(s):  
Ali Abdulkadir Ali ◽  
Ali Yassin Sheikh Ali ◽  
Mohamed Saney Dalmar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Growth Strategy ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Econometric Methods ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

In this paper the impact of exports and imports on the economic growth of Somalia over the period 1970-1991 was investigated. The study applied econometric methods such as Ordinary Least Squares technique. The Granger Causality and Johansen Co-integration tests were also used for analysing the long term association. By using Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillip-Perron (PP) stationarity test, the variables proved to be integrated of the order one 1(1) at first difference. Johansen test of co-integration was used to determine if there is a long run association in the variables. To determine the direction of causality among the variables, both in the long and short run, the Pair-wise Granger Causality test was carried out. It was found that economic growth does not Granger Cause Export but was found hat export Granger Cause GDP. So this implies that there is unidirectional causality between exports and economic growth. Also there is bidirectional Granger Causality between import and export. The results show that economic growth in Somalia requires export-led growth strategy as well as export led import. Imports and exports are thus seen as the source of economic growth in Somalia.

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