scholarly journals The Impact of COVID-19 on Electricity Demand and Generation in Japan

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (19) ◽  
pp. 10836
Author(s):  
Kelly D’Alessandro ◽  
Andrew Chapman ◽  
Paul Dargusch
Keyword(s):  
Electricity Generation ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Electricity Demand ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
Smoothing Method ◽  
International Studies ◽  
Domestic Energy ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Method ◽  
The Impact

This research considered changes in monthly electricity generation and demand in Japan during the COVID-19 pandemic. Observed network electricity demand and generation type for the January–June 2020 period were compared to forecast values (using a triple exponential smoothing method) based on trends established from 2016 to 2019. Regional level electricity demand data showed little variation from expected trends for domestic energy users, but lower than expected business and industrial network demand, particularly in the 50–2000 kW cohort. Electricity demand was most likely to deviate from existing trends in May 2020, which is in-line with the voluntary lockdown activities. These results are consistent with observed patterns from other international studies into the impact of COVID-19 on electricity demand. Generation was found to be reduced in May and June of 2020, without significant impacts to the generation makeup, largely due to Japan’s positioning within a broader energy transition context. These findings validate previous studies and add to the broader discussions on drivers and the rationale for electricity demand behaviors between user scales. Previous studies examined the electricity demand reductions of full and partial lockdowns. This analysis adds to this discourse by documenting the impacts of a voluntary lockdown.

scholarly journals TRIPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING: FORECASTING PERBANDINGAN PENUMPANG KERETA API DAN PESAWAT TERBANG

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 277
Author(s):  
Khoirin Azaro ◽  
Nur Indah Riwajanti ◽  
Anik Kusmintarti
Keyword(s):  
Consumer Demand ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Smoothing Method ◽  
Seasonal Patterns ◽  
Efficient Planning ◽  
Exponential Method ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Method ◽  
Airline Company

This research aims to predict the number of train and airplane passengers in 2020. Forecasting of train and airplane passengers is interest to analyze and estimate consumer demand to help the train or airline company prepare effective and efficient planning. This type of research is descriptive quantitative and uses data taken from the Indonesian Statistic Agency (BPS). Data were analyzed using Exponential smoothing Method. Train and airplane passenger data shows trend and seasonal patterns so that the exponential method used is Triple Exponential smoothing. The results of the study show that train passengers in 2020 are increase. While forecast results related to aircraft passengers in 2020 also tend to increase.

scholarly journals Does Combined Heat and Power Play the Role of a Bridge in Energy Transition? Evidence from a Cross-Country Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1035 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyo-Jin Kim ◽  
Jeong-Joon Yu ◽  
Seung-Hoon Yoo
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Electricity Generation ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Parameter Estimate ◽  
Combined Heat And Power ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
The Impact

In an era of energy transition involving an increase in renewable energy and a reduction in coal-fired power generation and nuclear power generation, the role of combined heat and power (CHP) as a bridging energy is highly emphasized. This article attempts to look empirically into the impact of increasing the share of renewable energy in total electricity generation on CHP share in total electricity generation in a cross-country context. Data from 35 countries during the period 2009–2015 were used, and the least absolute deviations estimator was applied to obtain a more robust parameter estimate. The results showed that a 1%p increase in the share of renewable energy significantly increased the CHP share by 0.87%p. Therefore, the hypothesis that CHP serves as bridge energy in the process of energy transition was established.

scholarly journals Forecasting of Groundwater Tax Revenue Using Single Exponential Smoothing Method

2019 ◽  
Vol 125 ◽  
pp. 23006
Author(s):  
Dyna Marisa Khairina ◽  
Aqib Muaddam ◽  
Septya Maharani ◽  
Heliza Rahmania
Keyword(s):  
Reference Value ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Smoothing Method ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Regional Office ◽  
Forecasting Error ◽  
The Government ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Method ◽  
Single Exponential

Setting the target of groundwater tax revenues for the next year is an important thing for Kutai Kartanegara Regional Office of Revenue to maximize the regional income and accelerate regional development. Process of setting the target of groundwater tax revenue for the next year still using estimation only and not using a mathematical calculation method that can generate target reference value. If the realization of groundwater tax revenue is not approaching the target, the implementation of development in the Government of Kutai Kartanegara can be disrupted. The mathematical method commonly used to predict revenue value is the Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) method, which uses alpha constant value which is randomly selected for the calculation process. Forecasting of groundwater tax revenue for 2018 using groundwater tax revenue data from 2013 to 2017. Single Exponential Smoothing method using alpha constant value consists of 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4 and 0.5. The forecasting error value of each alpha value is calculated using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) method. The best result is forecasting using alpha value 0.1 with MAPE error value was 45.868 and the best forecasting value of groundwater tax for 2018 is Rp 443.904.600,7192.

scholarly journals Effects of a Delayed Expansion of Interconnector Capacities in a High RES-E European Electricity System

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (16) ◽  
pp. 3098
Author(s):  
Ritter ◽  
Meyer ◽  
Koch ◽  
Haller ◽  
Bauknecht ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Electricity Market ◽  
Electricity Generation ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Electricity Trading ◽  
Electricity System ◽  
System A ◽  
The Impact

In order to achieve a high renewable share in the electricity system, a significant expansion of cross-border exchange capacities is planned. Historically, the actual expansion of interconnector capacities has significantly lagged behind the planned expansion. This study examines the impact that such continued delays would have when compared to a strong interconnector expansion in an ambitious energy transition scenario. For this purpose, scenarios for the years 2030, 2040, and 2050 are examined using the electricity market model PowerFlex EU. The analysis reveals that both CO2 emissions and variable costs of electricity generation increase if interconnector expansion is delayed. This effect is most significant in the scenario year 2050, where lower connectivity leads roughly to a doubling of both CO2 emissions and variable costs of electricity generation. This increase results from a lower level of European electricity trading, a curtailment of electricity from a renewable energy source (RES-E), and a corresponding higher level of conventional electricity generation. Most notably, in Southern and Central Europe, less interconnection leads to higher use of natural gas power plants since less renewable electricity from Northern Europe can be integrated into the European grid.

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