scholarly journals Identifying Climate and Human Impact Trends in Streamflow: A Case Study in Uruguay

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 1433 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rafael Navas ◽  
Jimena Alonso ◽  
Angela Gorgoglione ◽  
R. Willem Vervoort
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Forest Cover ◽  
Mixed Model ◽  
Climate Forcing ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
Effects Of Land Use ◽  
Runoff Model

Land use change is an important driver of trends in streamflow. However, the effects are often difficult to disentangle from climate effects. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate that trends in streamflow can be identified by analysing residuals of rainfall-runoff simulations using a Generalized Additive Mixed Model. This assumes that the rainfall-runoff model removes the average climate forcing from streamflow. The case study involves the Santa Lucía river (Uruguay), the GR4J rainfall-runoff model, three nested catchments ranging from 690 to 4900 km 2 and 35 years of observations (1981–2016). Two exogenous variables were considered to influence the streamflow. Using satellite data, growth in forest cover was identified, while the growth in water licenses was obtained from the water authority. Depending on the catchment, effects of land use change differ, with the largest catchment most impacted by afforestation, while the middle size catchment was more influenced by the growth in water licenses.

scholarly journals Impact of downscaled rainfall biases on projected runoff changes

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (6) ◽  
pp. 2981-2997
Author(s):  
Stephen P. Charles ◽  
Francis H. S. Chiew ◽  
Nicholas J. Potter ◽  
Hongxing Zheng ◽  
Guobin Fu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Supply ◽  
Grid Point ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Rainfall Frequency ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Runoff Model ◽  
Regional Water

Abstract. Realistic projections of changes to daily rainfall frequency and magnitude, at catchment scales, are required to assess the potential impacts of climate change on regional water supply. We show that quantile–quantile mapping (QQM) bias-corrected daily rainfall from dynamically downscaled WRF simulations of current climate produce biased hydrological simulations, in a case study for the state of Victoria, Australia (237 629 km2). While the QQM bias correction can remove bias in daily rainfall distributions at each 10 km × 10 km grid point across Victoria, the GR4J rainfall–runoff model underestimates runoff when driven with QQM bias-corrected daily rainfall. We compare simulated runoff differences using bias-corrected and empirically scaled rainfall for several key water supply catchments across Victoria and discuss the implications for confidence in the magnitude of projected changes for mid-century. Our results highlight the imperative for methods that can correct for temporal and spatial biases in dynamically downscaled daily rainfall if they are to be suitable for hydrological projection.

Effects of land use change on ecosystem services: a case study in Miyun reservoir watershed

2013 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 726-736 ◽  
Author(s):  
李屹峰 LI Yifeng ◽  
罗跃初 LUO Yuechu ◽  
刘纲 LIU Gang ◽  
欧阳志云 OUYANG Zhiyun ◽  
郑华 ZHENG Hua
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Miyun Reservoir ◽  
Miyun Reservoir Watershed ◽  
Reservoir Watershed ◽  
Effects Of Land Use

scholarly journals Rainfall-Runoff Model Based on ANN with LM, BR and PSO as Learning Algorithms

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 971-979
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Natural Phenomenon ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Flood Prediction ◽  
Prone Area ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
Runoff Model

Rainfall-runoff model requires comprehensive computation as its relation is a complex natural phenomenon. Various inter-related processes are involved with factors such as rainfall intensity, geomorphology, climatic and landscape are all affecting runoff response. In general there is no single rainfall-runoff model that can cater to all flood prediction system with varying topological area. Hence, there is a vital need to have custom-tailored prediction model with specific range of data, type of perimeter and antecedent hour of prediction to meet the necessity of the locality. In an attempt to model a reliable rainfall-runoff system for a flood-prone area in Malaysia, 3 different approach of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are modelled based on the data acquired from Sungai Pahang, Pekan. In this paper, the ANN rainfall-runoff models are trained by the Levenberg Marquardt (LM), Bayesian Regularization (BR) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). The performances of the learning algorithms are compared and evaluated based on a 12-hour prediction model. The results demonstrate that LM produces the best model. It outperforms BR and PSO in terms of convergence rate, lowest mean square error (MSE) and optimum coefficeint of correlation. Furthermore, the LM approach are free from overfitting, which is a crucial concern in conventional ANN learning algorithm. Our case study takes the data of rainfall and runoff from the year 2012 to 2014. This is a case study in Pahang river basin, Pekan, Malaysia.

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