scholarly journals Water-Energy Nexus for an Italian Storage Hydropower Plant under Multiple Drivers

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 1838 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mattia Bonato ◽  
Alessandro Ranzani ◽  
Epari Ritesh Patro ◽  
Ludovic Gaudard ◽  
Carlo De Michele
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Hydropower Plant ◽  
Mountainous Area ◽  
Specific Storage ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Water Energy Nexus ◽  
River Configuration ◽  
The Impact

Climate change has repercussions on the management of water resources. Particularly, changes in precipitation and temperature impact hydropower generation and revenue by affecting seasonal electricity prices and streamflow. This issue exemplifies the impact of climate change on the water-energy-nexus, which has raised serious concern. This paper investigates the impact of climate change on hydropower with a multidisciplinary approach. A holistic perspective should be favored as the issue is complex, consequently, we chose to investigate a specific case study in Italy. It allows grasping the details, which matters in mountainous area. We integrated a hydrological model, hydropower management model, nine climate scenarios, and five electricity scenarios for a specific storage hydropower plant. Independently from the scenarios, the results show a glacier volume shrinkage upward of 40% by 2031 and minimum of 50% by 2046. The reservoir mitigates losses of revenue that reach 8% in the worst case, however, are lower compared with run-of-the-river configuration. Changes in price seasonality amplitude also determine modifications in revenues, while temporal shifts appear to be ineffective. For run-of-the-river, any variation in hydrological cycle immediately translates into revenue. Comparing the results of all future scenarios with the base scenario, it can be concluded that an increase in temperature will slightly improve the performances of hydropower.

Impact of climate change on abstraction for hydropower and public water supply in Wales, UK

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Dallison ◽  
Sopan Patil
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Public Water Supply ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Efficient Operation ◽  
Substantial Impact ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

<p>The impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle and catchment processes has been extensively studied. In Wales, such changes are projected to have a substantial impact on hydrological regimes. However, the impact on the water abstraction capability of key sectors in the country, such as hydropower (HP) and public water supply (PWS), is not yet fully understood. We use the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to generate future (2021-2054) daily streamflows under a worst-case scenario of greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) at two large catchments in Wales, the Conwy and Tywi. SWAT streamflow output is used to estimate the abstractable water resources, and therefore changes in the average generation characteristics for 25 run-of-river HP schemes across Conwy and Tywi and the total unmet demand for a single large PWS abstraction in the Tywi. This unmet PWS demand is assessed using the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) system under increasing, static, and declining demand scenarios. Mann-Kendall trend analysis is performed to detect and characterise the trends for both sectors.</p><p>Results show greater seasonality in abstraction potential through the study period, with an overall decrease in annual abstraction volume due to summer and autumn streamflow declines outweighing increases seen in winter and spring. For HP, these trends result in a projected decline in annual power generation potential, despite an increasing number of days per year that maximum permitted abstraction is reached. For PWS, under all future demand scenarios, annually there is an increase in the number of days where demand is not met as well as the total shortfall volume of water. Our results suggest that currently installed HP schemes may not make optimal use of future flows, and that the planning of future schemes should take account of these to ensure the most efficient operation is achieved. Moreover, PWS supply sustainability is under threat and will require management and mitigation measures to be implemented to ensure future supplies. Overall, our study provides a novel perspective on the future water resource availability in Wales, giving context to management planning to ensure future HP generation efficiency and PWS sustainability.</p>

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on wintertime European atmospheric blocking

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara Bacer ◽  
Fatima Jomaa ◽  
Julien Beaumet ◽  
Hubert Gallée ◽  
Enzo Le Bouëdec ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Atmospheric Blocking ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Type Decomposition

Abstract. We study the impact of climate change on wintertime atmospheric blocking over Europe focusing on the frequency, duration, and extension of blocking events. These events are identified via the weather type decomposition (WTD) methodology applied on the output of climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). Historical simulations as well as two future scenarios, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, are considered. The models are evaluated against the reanalysis and only a subset of climate models, which better represent the blocking weather regime in the recent-past climate, is considered for the analysis. We find that frequency and duration of blocking events remain relatively stationary over the 21st century. In order to quantify the extension of blocking events, we define a new methodology which relies on the WTD to identify blocking events. We show that the results are in agreement with previous studies that define blocking events with blocking indexes. We find that blocking extension will increase, especially in the worst-case scenario, due to a pressure increase driven by a thermodynamical warming during blocking events rather than atmospheric circulation changes.

Identification of Most Significant Parameter of Impact of Climate Change and Urbanization on Operational Efficiency of Hydropower Plant

2022 ◽  
pp. 1320-1350
Author(s):  
Priyanka Majumder ◽  
Apu Kumar Saha
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Operational Efficiency ◽  
Hydropower Plant ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Significant Parameter ◽  
Machine Failure ◽  
Urbanization Rate ◽  
Impact Of Urbanization ◽  
The Impact

The operational performance of hydropower plants (HPPs) is largely affected as the output from the plant entirely depends on the rainfall and demand from consumers both of which are compromised due to the vulnerability in climatic patterns and rapid change in urbanization rate. Although, not all the parameters are equally affected and the present study aims to find the degree of impact on the various correlated parameters on which production efficiency of HPPs varies. In this aspect, a neural network concept was used as decision making tool to identify the most significant parameters with respect to change in climate, urbanization along with machine failure because as a combined effect of the first two parameters, the probability of machine failure will also increase. The result from the study provides an opportunity to mitigate the impact that can be caused as a result of climate change impact and change in rate of urbanization. According to the result it was found that Efficiency of Generators is the most significant parameter of impact of climate change and urbanization on operational efficiency of hydropower plant. The result from the scenario analysis suggested that if the A2 scenario becomes true in 2061-70 there will be a maximum decrease in the OE and if land use scenario: PR story line is found to be adopted in the future world of 2020-30 the change in OE will be the greatest (an increase of 6.056%) compared to any other scenario developed for the impact of urbanization followed by land use change scenario of the 2031-40 decade, which will be equal to an increase of 5.247% compared to the baseline.

Identification of Most Significant Parameter of Impact of Climate Change and Urbanization on Operational Efficiency of Hydropower Plant

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 43-68
Author(s):  
Priyanka Majumder ◽  
Apu Kumar Saha
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Rapid Change ◽  
Operational Efficiency ◽  
Hydropower Plant ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Significant Parameter ◽  
Machine Failure ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Correlated Parameters

The operational performance of hydropower plants (HPPs) is largely affected as the output from the plant entirely depends on the rainfall and demand from consumers both of which are compromised due to the vulnerability in climatic patterns and rapid change in urbanization rate. Although, not all the parameters are equally affected and the present study aims to find the degree of impact on the various correlated parameters on which production efficiency of HPPs varies. In this aspect, a neural network concept was used as decision making tool to identify the most significant parameters with respect to change in climate, urbanization along with machine failure because as a combined effect of the first two parameters, the probability of machine failure will also increase. The result from the study provides an opportunity to mitigate the impact that can be caused as a result of climate change impact and change in rate of urbanization. According to the result it was found that Efficiency of Generators is the most significant parameter of impact of climate change and urbanization on operational efficiency of hydropower plant. The result from the scenario analysis suggested that if the A2 scenario becomes true in 2061-70 there will be a maximum decrease in the OE and if land use scenario: PR story line is found to be adopted in the future world of 2020-30 the change in OE will be the greatest (an increase of 6.056%) compared to any other scenario developed for the impact of urbanization followed by land use change scenario of the 2031-40 decade, which will be equal to an increase of 5.247% compared to the baseline.

scholarly journals Circulation type analysis of regional hydrology: the added value in using CMIP6 over CMIP5 simulations as exemplified from the MPI-ESM-LR model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chibuike Chiedozie Ibebuchi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Physical Relationship ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This study addresses the applicability of general circulation models (GCMs) in studying the impact of climate change on hydrology. The statistical downscaling of precipitation based on circulation types (CTs) derived from the (fuzzy) obliquely rotated principal component analysis is suggested as a robust methodology in using climate models to research the impact of climate change on hydrology. The methodology allows understanding of the mechanism of atmospheric circulation in the study region, and the physical relationship between atmospheric circulation and the regional hydrological cycle. The capability of climate simulations from the MPI-ESM GCM to reproduce the observed CTs in the target region is examined in light of the uncertainty of atmospheric GCMs when used for circulation typing. The results were discussed and it showed that, generally, the analyzed GCM can reproduce the underlying physics of atmospheric circulation in the study region, represented by the CTs, together with their dominant periods, probability of occurrence, and annual frequency of occurrence with modest biases. Generally, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) simulation indicates some improvement for the CT-based analysis relative to the CMIP5 counterpart; however, this depends on the analyzed CT.

HOW CLIMATE CHANGE CAN INFLUENCE THE AGRICULTURE IN UKRAINE: A REVIEW

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Maidanovych ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Soil Surface ◽  
Winter Period ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Resource Saving ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Average Annual Temperature ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this work is to review and analyze the main results of modern research on the impact of climate change on the agro-sphere of Ukraine. Results. Analysis of research has shown that the effects of climate change on the agro-sphere are already being felt today and will continue in the future. The observed climate changes in recent decades have already significantly affected the shift in the northern direction of all agro-climatic zones of Europe, including Ukraine. From the point of view of productivity of the agro-sphere of Ukraine, climate change will have both positive and negative consequences. The positives include: improving the conditions of formation and reducing the harvesting time of crop yields; the possibility of effective introduction of late varieties (hybrids), which require more thermal resources; improving the conditions for overwintering crops; increase the efficiency of fertilizer application. Model estimates of the impact of climate change on wheat yields in Ukraine mainly indicate the positive effects of global warming on yields in the medium term, but with an increase in the average annual temperature by 2 ° C above normal, grain yields are expected to decrease. The negative consequences of the impact of climate change on the agrosphere include: increased drought during the growing season; acceleration of humus decomposition in soils; deterioration of soil moisture in the southern regions; deterioration of grain quality and failure to ensure full vernalization of grain; increase in the number of pests, the spread of pathogens of plants and weeds due to favorable conditions for their overwintering; increase in wind and water erosion of the soil caused by an increase in droughts and extreme rainfall; increasing risks of freezing of winter crops due to lack of stable snow cover. Conclusions. Resource-saving agricultural technologies are of particular importance in the context of climate change. They include technologies such as no-till, strip-till, ridge-till, which make it possible to partially store and accumulate mulch on the soil surface, reduce the speed of the surface layer of air and contribute to better preservation of moisture accumulated during the autumn-winter period. And in determining the most effective ways and mechanisms to reduce weather risks for Ukrainian farmers, it is necessary to take into account the world practice of climate-smart technologies.

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