scholarly journals Quantifying the Uncertainty Related to Climate Change in the Assessment of Urban Flooding—A Case Study

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 2072
Author(s):  
Liuzzo ◽  
Freni
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Southern Italy ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Urban Catchment ◽  
Flood Susceptibility ◽  
Rainfall Variations ◽  
Flooding Events

Recent studies have pointed out that climate change is likely to have important implications on the extent and frequency of flooding events. Indeed, the intensification of the water cycle occurring in different areas of the world can dramatically affect the incidence of extreme events and, consequently, the flow in rivers or artificial channels, increasing the probability of disastrous floods. In this context, the criteria for the assessment of flood risk need to be improved to take into account the variability of rainfall due to climate change. In this study, a Bayesian procedure was used to update the parameters of the depth–duration–frequency (DDF) curves and quantify the uncertainty related to their assessment in some climate change scenarios. The critical storm obtained from these updated DDF curves was used as input for the FLO-2D hydraulic model, in order to investigate the effects of climate change on flood risk. The area of study was an urban catchment in Piazza Armerina, a small town located in Southern Italy. Results showed that rainfall variations remarkably affect not only the magnitude of flood events, but also the flood susceptibility of the study area.

scholarly journals Tidal flood area mapping in the face of climate change scenarios: case study in a tropical estuary in the Brazilian semi-arid region

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (11) ◽  
pp. 3353-3366
Author(s):  
Paulo Victor N. Araújo ◽  
Venerando E. Amaro ◽  
Leonlene S. Aguiar ◽  
Caio C. Lima ◽  
Alexandre B. Lopes
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Arid Region ◽  
Risk Mapping ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Management Actions ◽  
The Face ◽  
Semi Arid Region ◽  
Semi Arid

Abstract. Previous studies on tidal flood mapping are mostly through continental- and/or global-scale approaches. Moreover, the few works on local-scale perception are concentrated in Europe, Asia, and North America. Here, we present a case study approaching a tidal flood risk mapping application in the face of climate change scenarios in a region with a strong environmental and social appeal. The study site is an estuarine cut in the Brazilian semi-arid region, covering part of two state conservation units, which has been suffering severe consequences from tidal flooding in recent years. In this case study, we used high-geodetic-precision data (lidar DEM), together with robust tidal return period statistics and data from current sea level rise scenarios. We found that approximately 327.60 km2 of the estuary is under tidal flood risk and in need of mitigation measures. This case study can serve as a basis for future management actions, as well as a model for applying risk mapping in other coastal areas.

scholarly journals Spatial Prediction of Future Flood Risk: An Approach to the Effects of Climate Change

Geosciences ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 25
Author(s):  
Mohammadtaghi Avand ◽  
Hamid Reza Moradi ◽  
Mehdi Ramazanzadeh Lasboyee
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spatial Prediction ◽  
Flood Management ◽  
Management Program ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Probability Map ◽  
Flood Susceptibility ◽  
Flood Probability ◽  
Model Training

Preparation of a flood probability map serves as the first step in a flood management program. This research develops a probability flood map for floods resulting from climate change in the future. Two models of Flexible Discrimination Analysis (FDA) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) were used. Two optimistic (RCP2.6) and pessimistic (RCP8.5) climate change scenarios were considered for mapping future rainfall. Moreover, to produce probability flood occurrence maps, 263 locations of past flood events were used as dependent variables. The number of 13 factors conditioning floods was taken as independent variables in modeling. Of the total 263 flood locations, 80% (210 locations) and 20% (53 locations) were considered model training and validation. The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve and other statistical criteria were used to validate the models. Based on assessments of the validated models, FDA, with a ROC-AUC = 0.918, standard error (SE = 0.038), and an accuracy of 0.86% compared to the ANN model with a ROC-AUC = 0.897, has the highest accuracy in preparing the flood probability map in the study area. The modeling results also showed that the factors of distance from the River, altitude, slope, and rainfall have the greatest impact on floods in the study area. Both models’ future flood susceptibility maps showed that the highest area is related to the very low class. The lowest area is related to the high class.

scholarly journals Potential Impacts of Future Climate Change Scenarios on Ground Subsidence

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 219 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonio-Juan Collados-Lara ◽  
David Pulido-Velazquez ◽  
Rosa María Mateos ◽  
Pablo Ezquerro
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Subsidence ◽  
Ground Subsidence ◽  
Lower Percentage ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Fine Grained ◽  
Fine Grained Material ◽  
The Impact

In this work, we developed a new method to assess the impact of climate change (CC) scenarios on land subsidence related to groundwater level depletion in detrital aquifers. The main goal of this work was to propose a parsimonious approach that could be applied for any case study. We also evaluated the methodology in a case study, the Vega de Granada aquifer (southern Spain). Historical subsidence rates were estimated using remote sensing techniques (differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar, DInSAR). Local CC scenarios were generated by applying a bias correction approach. An equifeasible ensemble of the generated projections from different climatic models was also proposed. A simple water balance approach was applied to assess CC impacts on lumped global drawdowns due to future potential rainfall recharge and pumping. CC impacts were propagated to drawdowns within piezometers by applying the global delta change observed with the lumped assessment. Regression models were employed to estimate the impacts of these drawdowns in terms of land subsidence, as well as to analyze the influence of the fine-grained material in the aquifer. The results showed that a more linear behavior was observed for the cases with lower percentage of fine-grained material. The mean increase of the maximum subsidence rates in the considered wells for the future horizon (2016–2045) and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario 8.5 was 54%. The main advantage of the proposed method is its applicability in cases with limited information. It is also appropriate for the study of wide areas to identify potential hot spots where more exhaustive analyses should be performed. The method will allow sustainable adaptation strategies in vulnerable areas during drought-critical periods to be assessed.

Short Communication: Climate change and biofuel wheat: A case study of southern Saskatchewan

2012 ◽  
Vol 92 (3) ◽  
pp. 421-425 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hong Wang ◽  
Yong He ◽  
Budong Qian ◽  
Brian McConkey ◽  
Herb Cutforth ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Grain Yield ◽  
Short Communication ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Yield Reduction ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Communication Climate ◽  
Stochastic Weather Generator ◽  
Ipcc Sres

Wang, H., He, Y., Qian, B., McConkey, B., Cutforth, H., McCaig, T., McLeod, G., Zentner, R., DePauw, R., Lemke, R., Brandt, K., Liu, T., Qin, X., White, J., Hunt, T. and Hoogenboom, G. 2012. Short Communication: Climate change and biofuel wheat: A case study of southern Saskatchewan. Can. J. Plant Sci. 92: 421–425. This study assessed potential impacts of climate change on wheat production as a biofuel crop in southern Saskatchewan, Canada. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer-Cropping System Model (DSSAT-CSM) was used to simulate biomass and grain yield under three climate change scenarios (CGCM3 with the forcing scenarios of IPCC SRES A1B, A2 and B1) in the 2050s. Synthetic 300-yr weather data were generated by the AAFC stochastic weather generator for the baseline period (1961–1990) and each scenario. Compared with the baseline, precipitation is projected to increase in every month under all three scenarios except in July and August and in June for A2, when it is projected to decrease. Annual mean air temperature is projected to increase by 3.2, 3.6 and 2.7°C for A1B, A2 and B1, respectively. The model predicted increases in biomass by 28, 12 and 16% without the direct effect of CO2 and 74, 55 and 41% with combined effects (climate and CO2) for A1B, A2 and B1, respectively. Similar increases were found for grain yield. However, the occurrence of heat shock (>32°C) will increase during grain filling under the projected climate conditions and could cause severe yield reduction, which was not simulated by DSSAT-CSM. This implies that the future yield under climate scenarios might have been overestimated by DSSAT-CSM; therefore, model modification is required. Several measures, such as early seeding, must be taken to avoid heat damages and take the advantage of projected increases in temperature and precipitation in the early season.

Would Rainfed Agriculture Be the Right Option Under Climate Change Scenarios? A Case Study from Centro Region of Portugal

2018 ◽  
pp. 391-418
Author(s):  
Albano Figueiredo ◽  
Carolina Alves ◽  
Joaquim Patriarca ◽  
Andreia Saavedra Cardoso ◽  
Paula Castro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Rainfed Agriculture ◽  
The Right

scholarly journals Assessing the Governance Context Support for Creating a Pluvial Flood Risk Map with Climate Change Scenarios: The Flemish Subnational Case

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 460 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cesar Casiano Flores ◽  
Joep Crompvoets
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Steering Committee ◽  
Provincial Government ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Risk Map ◽  
The Creation ◽  
Risk Maps ◽  
Flood Risk Map ◽  
Subnational Governments

Climate change has increased pluvial flood risks in cities around the world. To mitigate floods, pluvial risk maps with climate change scenarios have been developed to help major urban areas adapt to a changing climate. In some cases, subnational governments have played a key role to develop these maps. However, governance research about the role of subnational governments in geospatial data development in urban water transitions has received little attention. To address this gap, this research applies the Governance Assessment Tool as an evaluative framework to increase our understanding of the governance factors that support the development of pluvial flood risk maps at the subnational level. For this research, we selected the region of Flanders in Belgium. This region is considered among the frontrunners when it comes to the creation of a pluvial flood risk map with climate change scenarios. Data have been collected through in-depth interviews with steering committee actors involved in the development process of the map. The research identified that the current governance context is supportive of the creation of the flood risk map. The government of Flanders plays a key role in this process. The most supportive qualities of the governance context are those related to the degree of fragmentation (extent and coherence), while the less supportive ones are those related to the “quest for control” (flexibility and intensity). Under this governance context, government actors play the primary role. The Flemish government led the maps’ creation process and it was supported by the lower governmental levels. As the provincial government was an important actor to increase local participation, collaboration with private and non-governmental actors in the steering committee was more limited. The financial resources were also limited and the process required a continuous development of trust. Yet, the Flemish Environmental Agency, with the use of technology, was able to increase such trust during the process.

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