scholarly journals Instant Flood Risk Modelling (Inform) Tool for Co-Design of Flood Risk Management Strategies with Stakeholders in Can Tho City, Vietnam

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (21) ◽  
pp. 3131
Author(s):  
Hieu Ngo ◽  
Mohanasundar Radhakrishnan ◽  
Roshanka Ranasinghe ◽  
Assela Pathirana ◽  
Chris Zevenbergen

Flood risk reduction strategies play an important role in flood risk management (FRM) and these strategies are being co-designed with the engagement of the stakeholder through multiple consultations and co-designing sessions. Effective participation of stakeholders in interactive work sessions requires fast and accurate modeling systems with a user-friendly interface, which can simulate the impact due to various flood reduction measures selected by the stakeholders and also generate outputs that can be understood by all stakeholders, especially those who are not FRM specialists. Presenting an easy-to-understand tool with easy inputs and outputs for a variety of stakeholders and at the same time providing reliable and accurate results for a range of scenarios and interventions is a challenge. Seven requirements that are essential for a user-friendly flood risk tool were used to develop an instant flood risk modeling tool. This paper presents a web-based hydraulic tool, i.e., instant flood risk model (Inform), to support FRM in the urban center of Can Tho city (Ninh Kieu district), Mekong Delta, Vietnam. Inform was developed based on (i) a simplified 1D model for the entire Mekong Delta; and (ii) flood hazard and damage maps, and estimated flood damage for Ninh Kieu district in Can Tho city obtained directly from the 1D/2D coupled model for Ninh Kieu district. Inform rapidly generates flood levels, flood hazard and damage maps, estimated damages. Pilot testing with experts confirmed that Inform qualifies as a reliable co-design tool for developing FRM strategies as it features an inbuilt input library, comprises flexible options, easy to use, produces quick results and has a user-friendly interface. With the help of an interactive web-based tool such as Inform presented here, it is possible to co-design FRM strategies for Can Tho or any other city that is subject to flood risk.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hieu Ngo ◽  
Roshanka Ranasinghe ◽  
Chris Zevenbergen ◽  
Ebru Kirezci ◽  
Dikman Maheng ◽  
...  

Abstract. Flood risk management and planning decisions in many parts of the world have historically utilised flood hazard or risk maps for a very limited number of hazard scenarios (e.g. river water levels), mainly due to computational challenges. With the potentially massive increase in flood risk in future due to the combination of climate change effects (increasing the hazard) and increasing population and developments in floodplains (increasing the consequence), risk-informed flood risk management, which enables balancing the risk with the reward, is now becoming more and more sought after. This requires a comprehensive and quantitative risk assessment, which in turn demands multiple (thousands of) river and flood model simulations. Performing such a large number of model simulations is a challenge, especially for large, complex river systems (e.g. Mekong) due to the associated computational and resource demands. This article presents an efficient modelling approach that combines a simplified 1D hydrodynamic model for the entire Mekong Delta with a detailed 1D/2D coupled model and demonstrates its application at Can Tho city in the Mekong Delta. Probabilistic flood hazard maps, ranging from 0.5 yr to 100 yr return period events, are obtained for the urban centre of Can Tho city under different future scenarios taking into account the impact of climate change forcing (river flow, sea-level rise, storm surge) and land subsidence. Results obtained under present conditions show that more than 12 % of the study area is inundated by the present-day 100 yr return period water level. Future projections show that, if the present rate of land subsistence continues, by 2050 (under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios), the 0.5 yr and 100 yr return period flood extents will increase by around 15-fold and 8-fold, respectively, relative to the present-day flood extent. However, without land subsidence, the projected increases in the 0.5 yr and 100 yr return period flood extents by 2050 (under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are limited to between a doubling to tripling of the present-day flood extent. Therefore, adaptation measures that can reduce the rate of land subsidence (e.g. limiting groundwater extraction), would substantially mitigate future flood hazards in the study area. A combination of restricted groundwater extraction and the construction of a new and more efficient urban drainage network would facilitate even further reductions in the flood hazard. The projected 15-fold increase in flood extent projected by 2050 for the twice per year (0.5 yr return period) flood event implies that the do nothing management approach is not a feasible option for Can Tho.


Author(s):  
Marta Borowska-Stefańska ◽  
Szymon Wiśniewski

This is an advance summary of a forthcoming article in the Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Natural Hazard Science. Please check back later for the full article. Globally, floods cause widespread damage, especially in densely populated areas exposed to heavy land use. As a result, enormous financial expenditure is invested in flood protection and the mitigation of flood-related effects. Decisions on the allocation of resources to ensure flood protection are made on the determination of the costs entailed and the expected benefits that such actions may bring. From the economic point of view, the outlays incurred for flood protection should be outweighed by the expected results. For this reason, flood risk management is very important. Mitigation of flood-related loss should take into account a comprehensive spectrum of actions, from prevention and education, through measures taken during a flood, to strategies that help people return to normality once the disaster is over. In the 21st century there has been a radical change in the approach to the issue of flood protection (as seen in the 2007 Floods Directive)—it is no longer believed that there is such a thing as complete protection against flood, but that the damage and loss floods inflict can be mitigated, and since floods cannot be completely eradicated, societies must learn how to live with them. In the event of a flood, pre-prepared procedures to counteract and mitigate the effects of the disaster are followed, including evacuation of people and movable property from affected areas. Evacuation planning is meant to reduce the number of disaster-related fatalities and material losses. Crucially, this type of planning requires a well-defined, optimum evacuation policy for people/households within flood hazard areas. In addition, evacuation modeling is particularly important for authorities, planners, and other experts managing the process of evacuation, as it allows for more effective relocation of evacuees. Modeling can also facilitate the identification of bottlenecks within the transport system prior to the occurrence of a disaster, that is, the impact of flood-related road closures and the effects a phased evacuation has on traffic load, among other things, can be determined. Furthermore, not only may the ability to model alternative evacuation scenarios lead to the establishment of appropriate policies, evacuation strategies, and contingency plans, but it might also facilitate better communication and information flow.


Author(s):  
Natainia S. Lummen ◽  
Hajime Shirozu ◽  
Norio Okada ◽  
Fumihiko Yamada

Purpose In Kumamoto, Japan flood risk information is made available on several websites. In the event of heavy rainfall, local citizens need to access these websites and make household-level decisions. It is difficult for citizens to monitor all these sites, analyze and make effective decisions. Evacuation orders are issued by the local government who then filters the information to the relevant multiple stakeholders and local citizens. This takes time and reduces the response lead time of citizens especially in fast-onset floods. There was a therefore a need for illustrative integrated approaches, integrating these data sets. Design/methodology/approach Using precipitation, river water and tide level data, user-friendly real-time graphs were set up for the Shirakawa River, Kumamoto, Japan. Flood data were collected and used to create numerical simulations, and electronic community-based hazard maps were created. Findings The data gathered from the July 2012 flood event were used as a demonstrator, illustrating a flood event, as well as how to utilize the information provided on user-friendly real-time graphs’ website, to determine the location, future time and possibility of flooding. Additionally, an electronically generated flood hazard map-making process was developed for distribution across Japan. Research limitations/implications These illustrative approaches are relatively new and have only been tested and evaluated in communities across Kumamoto, Japan. As such, it is too early to determine robustness and generalized applications worldwide, especially in data-scarce countries and communities. Improvements and maintenance are ongoing. Practical implications These illustrative approaches can be adopted and utilized in cities and communities around the globe, thereby helping in overall disaster risk-reduction initiatives and better flood risk management strategies. Originality/value These illustrative approaches are new to Kumamoto City and Japan. These provide citizens with user-friendly real-time graphs that can be accessed anytime and used in flood hazard preparations, warnings, response or recovery.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Toni Kekez

Many river basins are experiencing frequent flooding events with significant economic and other losses due to intensive precipitation as well as other atmospheric and hydrological conditions. European Flood Directive defined flood risk as a combination of flooding probability and possible adverse consequences on people, assets, cultural heritage and environment. Flood risk management considers implementation of different measures for mitigation and prevention of possible negative consequences related to flooding. Uncertainty can strongly affect the flood risk management process, especially near and during the flood event. A framework is proposed for implementation of uncertainty related to behavior of the endangered system in the flood risk assessment, in order to improve the decision-making process during the flood emergency response. The proposed framework is validated on the City of Slavonski Brod pilot site, where the results demonstrated that there is a significant flood hazard still present due to possible weir failure, despite the improvement of flood defense measures. Furthermore, the results demonstrated how flood risk value can significantly decrease by properly evacuating the affected population. Flood risk management on a strategic level requires a monetary quantification of possible flood risk, which is performed by calculating expected annual damage (EAD) based on the combination of flooding event probability and corresponding damages. A semi-analytic methodology is presented for estimation of expected annual damage based on the factor graph model, which enables integration of entire probability space as well as flexibility in defining input data. Furthermore, a novel approach is presented for definition of annual damage distribution based on first and second statistical moment and by employing Beta distribution. By analyzing the annual damage distribution as well as impact of different sources of uncertainty, the results demonstrated that there is a significant impact of extreme events with low occurrence probability on the expected annual damage.


Author(s):  
Andreja Jonoski ◽  
Mariele Evers

This article introduces a sociotechnical framework for conceptualization, design and development of participatory Flood Risk Management (FRM) processes. The framework enables a collaborative modeling approach, in which FRM activities are jointly carried out by authorities responsible for FRM, key stakeholders and the potentially affected citizens. Given the technical and social complexity of FRM, the article argues for adoption of the proposed framework as a means for realizing individual and social learning among all involved actors, which leads to shared understanding of the identified flood risks and potentially to commonly agreed FRM alternatives and strategies. Implementation of the framework critically depends on a web-based collaborative platform – a tool that supports all collaborative modeling activities. The framework is presented from within European context of FRM, but its relevance is broader and it can potentially be adopted in other social and geographical areas.


Author(s):  
David Proverbs ◽  
Jessica Lamond

Flood resilient construction has become an essential component of the integrated approach to flood risk management, now widely accepted through the concepts of making space for water and living with floods. Resilient construction has been in place for centuries, but only fairly recently has it been recognized as part of this wider strategy to manage flood risk. Buildings and the wider built environment are known to play a key role in flood risk management, and when buildings are constructed on or near to flood plains there is an obvious need to protect these. Engineered flood defense systems date back centuries, with early examples seen in China and Egypt. Levees were first built in the United States some 150 years ago, and were followed by the development of flood control acts and regulations. In 1945, Gilbert Fowler White, the so-called “father of floodplain management,” published his influential thesis which criticized the reliance on engineered flood defenses and began to change these approaches. In Europe, a shortage of farmable land led to the use of land reclamation schemes and the ensuing Land Drainage acts before massive flood events in the mid-20th century led to a shift in thinking towards the engineered defense schemes such as the Thames Barrier and Dutch dyke systems. The early 21st century witnessed the emergence of the “living with water” philosophy, which has resulted in the renewed understanding of flood resilience at a property level. The scientific study of construction methods and building technologies that are robust to flooding is a fairly recent phenomenon. There are a number of underlying reasons for this, but the change in flood risk philosophy coupled with the experience of flood events and the long process of recovery is helping to drive research and investment in this area. This has led to a more sophisticated understanding of the approaches to avoiding damage at an individual property level, categorized under three strategies, namely avoidance technology, water exclusion technology, and water entry technology. As interest and policy has shifted to water entry approaches, alongside this has been the development of research into flood resilient materials and repair and reinstatement processes, the latter gaining much attention in the recognition that experience will prompt resilient responses and that the point of reinstatement provides a good opportunity to install resilient measures. State-of-the-art practices now center on avoidance strategies incorporating planning legislation in many regions to prohibit or restrict new development in flood plains. Where development pressures mean that new buildings are permitted, there is now a body of knowledge around the impact of flooding on buildings and flood resilient construction and techniques. However, due to the variety and complexity of architecture and construction styles and varying flood risk exposure, there remain many gaps in our understanding, leading to the use of trial and error and other pragmatic approaches. Some examples of avoidance strategies include the use of earthworks, floating houses, and raised construction. The concept of property level flood resilience is an emerging concept in the United Kingdom and recognizes that in some cases a hybrid approach might be favored in which the amount of water entering a property is limited, together with the likely damage that is caused. The technology and understanding is moving forward with a greater appreciation of the benefits from combining strategies and property level measures, incorporating water resistant and resilient materials. The process of resilient repair and considerate reinstatement is another emerging feature, recognizing that there will be a need to dry, clean, and repair flood-affected buildings. The importance of effective and timely drying of properties, including the need to use materials that dry rapidly and are easy to decontaminate, has become more apparent and is gaining attention. Future developments are likely to concentrate on promoting the uptake of flood resilient materials and technologies both in the construction of new and in the retrofit and adaptation of existing properties. Further development of flood resilience technology that enhances the aesthetic appeal of adapted property would support the uptake of measures. Developments that reduce cost or that offer other aesthetic or functional advantages may also reduce the barriers to uptake. A greater understanding of performance standards for resilient materials will help provide confidence in such measures and support uptake, while further research around the breathability of materials and concerns around mold and the need to avoid creating moisture issues inside properties represent some of the key areas.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 1069 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mazen M. Abu-Abdullah ◽  
Ahmed M. Youssef ◽  
Norbert H. Maerz ◽  
Emad Abu-AlFadail ◽  
Hasan M. Al-Harbi ◽  
...  

For public safety, especially for people who dwell in the valley that is located downstream of a dam site, as well as the protection of economic and environmental resources, risk management programs are urgently required all over the world. Despite the high safety standards of dams because of improved engineering and excellent construction in recent times, a zero-risk guarantee is not possible, and accidents can happen, triggered by natural hazards, human actions, or just because the dam is aging. In addition to that is the impact of potential climate change, which may not have been taken into account in the original design. A flood risk management program, which is essential for protecting downstream dam areas, is required. Part of this program is to prepare an inundation map to simulate the impact of dam failure on the downstream areas. The Baysh dam has crucial importance both to protect the downstream areas against flooding, to provide drinking water to cities in the surrounding areas, and to use the excess water for irrigation of the agricultural areas located downstream of the dam. Recently, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) was affected by extraordinary rainstorm events causing many problems in many different areas. One of these events happened along the basin of the Baysh dam, which raised the alarm to the decision makers and to the public to take suitable action before dam failure occurs. The current study deals with a flood risk analysis of Wadi Baysh using an integration of hydrologic and hydraulic models. A detailed field investigation of the dam site and the downstream areas down to the Red Sea coast has been undertaken. Three scenarios were applied to check the dam and the reservoir functionality; the first scenario at 100- and 200-year return period rainfall events, the second scenario according to the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP), and the third scenario if the dam fails. Our findings indicated that the Baysh dam and reservoir at 100- and 200-year rainfall events are adequate, however, at the PMP the water will spill out from the spillway at ~8900 m3/s causing flooding to the downstream areas; thus, a well-designed channel along the downstream wadi portion up to the Red Sea coast is required. However, at dam failure, the inundation model indicated that a vast area of the section downstream of the dam will be utterly devastated, causing a significant loss of lives and destruction of urban areas and agricultural lands. Eventually, an effective warning system and flood hazard management system are imperative.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Thanga Gurusamy ◽  
Avinash D Vasudeo ◽  
Aniruddha Dattatraya Ghare

<p><strong>Abstract: </strong>Because of the uncertainty and high cost involved, the Absolute Flood Protection has not been considered as a rational decision. Hence the trend is to replace Absolute Flood Protection strategy by Flood Risk Management Strategy. This Paper focus on the development of Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) model towards Flood Risk Management (FRM) across Godavari Lower Sub-Basin of India using GIS based methodologies for Flood Hazard Zonation in order to achieve global minimum of the Flood predicted Risk level.  Flood Hazard Zone Map for the historical flood events obtained with the use of GIS based Digital Elevation Models across the study area have been presented and used for the estimation of Hazard Risk. Uncertainty (or Control) Risk levels of each Flood estimated using various Flood Forecasting methodologies have been compared for the selected locations of the study area. Effectiveness of Passive Flood Protection Measures in the form of Flood Levees has been quantitatively analyzed for the increase in the Opportunity Risk and corresponding reduction in the Flood Hazard Risk. Various types of Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithms (MOEAs) have been used  to determine a Compromise solution with conflicting criteria between Hazard Risk and Opportunity (or Investment) Risk and the results were compared for each of the selected levels of Flood estimated with corresponding uncertainty. Traditional optimization method in the form of Pareto-Optimal Front have also been graphically depicted for the minimization of both Hazard Risk Objective function and Opportunity Risk Objective Function and compared with those obtained using MOEAs. Watershed wise distribution of optimized Flood Risk variation across the Sub-basin has been presented graphically for both the cases of with and without active Flood Routing Measures. <strong>Keywords:  </strong>Flood Risk Management; GIS based Flood Hazard Zonation; Multi-Criteria Decision Making; Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithms; Godavari Lower Sub-Basin of India;</p>


2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 1118-1141 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan Smith ◽  
Andy Newing ◽  
Niall Quinn ◽  
David Martin ◽  
Samantha Cockings ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erik C. van Berchum ◽  
Mathijs van Ledden ◽  
Jos S. Timmermans ◽  
Jan H. Kwakkel ◽  
Sebastiaan N. Jonkman

Abstract. Coastal cities combine intensive socio-economic activity and investments with high exposure to flood hazards. Developing effective strategies to manage flood risk in coastal cities is often a costly and complicated process. In the design of these strategies, engineers rely on computationally demanding flood simulation models and only compare a few strategies due to computational constraints. This limits the efficacy of standard flood simulation models in the crucial conceptual phase of flood risk management. This paper presents the Flood Risk Reduction Evaluation and Screening (FLORES)-model, which specifically aims to provide useful risk information early on in the planning process. FLORES performs numerous quick simulations and compares the impact of many storms, strategies, and future scenarios. This article presents the screening model and demonstrates its merits in a case study for Beira, Mozambique. Our results demonstrate that expansion of the drainage capacity and strengthening of its coastal protection in the southwest, are crucial components of any effective flood risk management strategy for Beira.


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