HEC-HMS HYDROLOGICAL MODELLING FOR RUNOFF ESTIMATION IN CAMERON HIGHLANDS, MALAYSIA

AbstractPrecipitation is sensitive to increasing greenhouse gas emission which has a significant impact on environmental sustainability. Rapid change of climate variables is often result into large variation in rainfall characteristics which trigger other forms of hazards such as floods, erosion, and landslides. This study employed multi-model ensembled general circulation models (GCMs) approach to project precipitation into 2050s and 2080s periods under four RCPs emission scenarios. Spatial analysis was performed in ArcGIS10.5 environment using Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation and Arc-Hydro extension. The model validation indicated by coefficient of determination, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, percent bias, root mean square error, standard error, and mean absolute error are 0.73, 0.27, 20.95, 1.25, 0.37 and 0.15, respectively. The results revealed that the Cameron Highlands will experience higher mean daily precipitations between 5.4 mm in 2050s and 9.6 mm in 2080s under RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. Analysis of precipitation concentration index (PCI) revealed that 75% of the watershed has PCI greater than 20 units which indicates substantial variability of the precipitation. Similarly, there is varied spatial distribution patterns of projected precipitation over the study watershed with the largest annual values ranged between 2900 and 3000 mm, covering 71% of the total area in 2080s under RCP8.5 scenario. Owing to this variability in rainfall magnitudes, appropriate measures for environmental protection are essential and to be strategized to address more vulnerable areas.

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Monetary Valuation of Flood Protection Ecosystem Service Based on Hydrological Modelling and Avoided Damage Costs. An Example from the Čierny Hron River Basin, Slovakia

Water ◽

10.3390/w13020198 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (2) ◽

pp. 198

Author(s):

Igor Gallay ◽

Branislav Olah ◽

Zuzana Gallayová ◽

Tomáš Lepeška

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Land Use ◽

Ecosystem Service ◽

Hydrological Modelling ◽

Flood Protection ◽

Medium Size ◽

Land Uses ◽

Monetary Valuation ◽

Monetary Value ◽

Damage Costs

Flood protection is considered one of the crucial regulating ecosystem services due to climate change and extreme weather events. As an ecosystem service, it combines the results of hydrological and ecosystem research and their implementation into land management and/or planning processes including several formally separated economic sectors. As managerial and economic interests often diverge, successful decision-making requires a common denominator in form of monetary valuation of competing trade-offs. In this paper, a methodical approach based on the monetary value of the ecosystem service provided by the ecosystem corresponding to its actual share in flood regulating processes and the value of the property protected by this service was developed and demonstrated based on an example of a medium size mountain basin (290 ha). Hydrological modelling methods (SWAT, HEC-RAS) were applied for assessing the extent of floods with different rainfalls and land uses. The rainfall threshold value that would cause flooding with the current land use but that would be safely drained if the basin was covered completely by forest was estimated. The cost of the flood protection ecosystem service was assessed by the method of non-market monetary value for estimating avoided damage costs of endangered infrastructure and calculated both for the current and hypothetical land use. The results identify areas that are crucial for water retention and that deserve greater attention in management. In addition, the monetary valuation of flood protection provided by the current but also by hypothetical land uses enables competent and well-formulated decision-making processes.

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