COSMO-Ru high-resolution short-range numerical weather prediction system: its development and applications

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 37-53 ◽  
Author(s):  
G.S. Rivin ◽  
◽  
I.A. Rozinkina ◽  
E.D. Astakhova ◽  
D.V. Blinov ◽  
...  
2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tien Du Duc ◽  
Lars Robert Hole ◽  
Duc Tran Anh ◽  
Cuong Hoang Duc ◽  
Thuy Nguyen Ba

The national numerical weather prediction system of Vietnam is presented and evaluated. The system is based on three main models, namely, the Japanese Global Spectral Model, the US Global Forecast System, and the US Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The global forecast products have been received at 0.25- and 0.5-degree horizontal resolution, respectively, and the WRF model has been run locally with 16 km horizontal resolution at the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting using lateral conditions from GSM and GFS. The model performance is evaluated by comparing model output against observations of precipitation, wind speed, and temperature at 168 weather stations, with daily data from 2010 to 2014. In general, the global models provide more accurate forecasts than the regional models, probably due to the low horizontal resolution in the regional model. Also, the model performance is poorer for stations with altitudes greater than 500 meters above sea level (masl). For tropical cyclone performance validations, the maximum wind surface forecast from global and regional models is also verified against the best track of Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Finally, the model forecast skill during a recent extreme rain event in northeast Vietnam is evaluated.


2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (8) ◽  
pp. 1605-1620 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susan Rennie ◽  
Peter Steinle ◽  
Alan Seed ◽  
Mark Curtis ◽  
Yi Xiao

AbstractA new quality control system, primarily using a naïve Bayesian classifier, has been developed to enable the assimilation of radial velocity observations from Doppler radar. The ultimate assessment of this system is the assimilation of observations in a pseudo-operational numerical weather prediction system during the Sydney 2014 Forecast Demonstration Project. A statistical analysis of the observations assimilated during this period provides an assessment of the data quality. This will influence how observations will be assimilated in the future, and what quality control and errors are applicable. This study compares observation-minus-background statistics for radial velocities from precipitation and insect echoes. The results show that with the applied level of quality control, these echo types have comparable biases. With the latest quality control, the clear air observations of wind are apparently of similar quality to those from precipitation and are therefore suitable for use in high-resolution NWP assimilation systems.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruth Mottram ◽  
Oskar Landgren ◽  
Rasmus Anker Pedersen ◽  
Kristian Pagh Nielsen ◽  
Ole Bøssing Christensen ◽  
...  

<p>The development of the HARMONIE model system has led to huge advances in numerical weather prediction, including over Greenland where a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model is used to forecast daily surface mass budget over the Greenland ice sheet as presented on polarportal.dk. The new high resolution Copernicus Arctic Reanalysis further developed the possibilities in HARMONIE with full 3DVar data assimilation and extended use of quality-controlled local observations. Here, we discuss the development and current status of the climate version of the HARMONIE Climate model (HCLIM). The HCLIM system has opened up the possibility for flexible use of the model at a range of spatial scales using different physical schemes including HARMONIE-AROME, ALADIN and ALARO for different spatial and temporal resolutions and assimilating observations, including satellite data on sea ice concentration from ESA CCI+, to improve hindcasts. However, the range of possibilities means that documenting the effects of different physics and parameterisation schemes is important before widespread application. </p><p>Here, we focus on HCLIM performance over the Greenland ice sheet, using observations to verify the different plausible set-ups and investigate biases in climate model outputs that affect the surface mass budget (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet. </p><p>The recently funded Horizon 2020 project PolarRES will use the HCLIM model for very high resolution regional downscaling, together with other regional climate models in both Arctic and Antarctic regions, and our analysis thus helps to optimise the use of HCLIM in the polar regions for different modelling purposes.</p>


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas Beckert ◽  
Lea Eisenstein ◽  
Tim Hewson ◽  
George C. Craig ◽  
Marc Rautenhaus

<p><span>Atmospheric fronts, a widely used conceptual model in meteorology, describe sharp boundaries between two air masses of different thermal properties. In the mid-latitudes, these sharp boundaries are commonly associated with extratropical cyclones. The passage of a frontal system is accompanied by significant weather changes, and therefore fronts are of particular interest in weather forecasting. Over the past decades, several two-dimensional, horizontal feature detection methods to objectively identify atmospheric fronts in numerical weather prediction (NWP) data were proposed in the literature (e.g. Hewson, Met.Apps. 1998). In addition, recent research (Kern et al., IEEE Trans. Visual. Comput. Graphics, 2019) has shown the feasibility of detecting atmospheric fronts as three-dimensional surfaces representing the full 3D frontal structure. In our work, we build on the studies by Hewson (1998) and Kern et al. (2019) to make front detection usable for forecasting purposes in an interactive 3D visualization environment. We consider the following aspects: (a) As NWP models evolved in recent years to resolve atmospheric processes on scales far smaller than the scale of midlatitude-cyclone- fronts, we evaluate whether previously developed detection methods are still capable to detect fronts in current high-resolution NWP data. (b) We present integration of our implementation into the open-source “Met.3D” software (http://met3d.wavestoweather.de) and analyze two- and three-dimensional frontal structures in selected cases of European winter storms, comparing different models and model resolution. (c) The considered front detection methods rely on threshold parameters, which mostly refer to the magnitude of the thermal gradient within the adjacent frontal zone - the frontal strength. If the frontal strength exceeds the threshold, a so-called feature candidate is classified as a front, while others are discarded. If a single, fixed, threshold is used, unwanted “holes” can be observed in the detected fronts. Hence, we use transparency mapping with fuzzy thresholds to generate continuous frontal features. We pay particular attention to the adjustment of filter thresholds and evaluate the dependence of thresholds and resolution of the underlying data.</span></p>


Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 587
Author(s):  
Magnus Lindskog ◽  
Tomas Landelius

A limited-area kilometre scale numerical weather prediction system is applied to evaluate the effect of refined surface data assimilation on short-range heavy precipitation forecasts. The refinements include a spatially dependent background error representation, use of a flow-dependent data assimilation technique, and use of data from a satellite-based scatterometer instrument. The effect of the enhancements on short-term prediction of intense precipitation events is confirmed through a number of case studies. Verification scores and subjective evaluation of one particular case points at a clear impact of the enhanced surface data assimilation on short-range heavy precipitation forecasts and suggest that it also tends to slightly improve them. Although this is not strictly statistically demonstrated, it is consistent with the expectation that a better surface state should improve rainfall forecasts.


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