scholarly journals Dynamics of COVID-19 Transmission: Compartmental-based Mathematical Modeling

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (supplement) ◽  
pp. 5
Author(s):  
Amna Ishtiaq
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
Intervention Strategies ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Transmission Dynamic ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Future Scenario ◽  
Dynamic Framework ◽  
The World

The current pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-Cov2) demands scientists all over the world to make their possible contributions in whatever way possible to control this disease. In such health emergency, mathematical epidemiologists are playing a pivotal role by constructing different mathematical and statistical models for predicting different future scenario and their impact on different intervention strategies to policy makers and health legislators. Compartmental-based models (CBM), are a type of transmission dynamic framework, which are one of the most studied models during this pandemic. This communication highlights the role CBM models play for the understanding of COVID-19 transmission dynamics.

scholarly journals The basic reproduction number of COVID-19 across Africa

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarafa Adewale Iyaniwura ◽  
Muhammad Rabiu Musa ◽  
Jummy F. David ◽  
Jude Dzevela Kong
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Inference ◽  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Clear Understanding ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
The World ◽  
Bayesian Inference Framework ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

The pandemic of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) took the world by surprise. Following the first outbreak of COVID-19 in December 2019, several models have been developed to study and understand its transmission dynamics. Although the spread of COVID-19 is being slowed down by vaccination and other interventions, there is still a need to have a clear understanding of the evolution of the pandemic across countries, states and communities. To this end, there is a need to have a clearer picture of the initial spread of the disease in different regions. In this project, we used a simple SEIR model and a Bayesian inference framework to estimate the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 across Africa. Our estimates vary between 1.98 (Sudan) and 9.66 (Mauritius), with a median of 3.67 (90% CrI: 3.31 - 4.12). The estimates provided in this paper will help to inform COVID-19 modeling in the respective countries/regions.

scholarly journals Unraveling the Myths of R0 in Controlling the Dynamics of COVID-19 Outbreak: a Modelling Perspective

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohd Hafiz Mohd ◽  
Fatima Sulayman
Keyword(s):  
Dynamical Systems ◽  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
False Detection ◽  
Medical Resources ◽  
The World ◽  
Exogenous Factors ◽  
Substantial Morbidity

ABSTRACTCOVID-19 is an emerging and rapidly evolving pandemic around the world, which causes severe acute respiratory syndrome and results in substantial morbidity and mortality. To examine the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and its interactions with some exogenous factors such as limited medical resources and false detection problems, we employ a simple epidemiological model and analyse this system using modelling and dynamical systems techniques. We discover some contrasting findings with respect to the observations of basic reproduction number, and we investigate how the issues of limited medical resources and false detection problems affect the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak.

scholarly journals Control Strategies to Curtail Transmission of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nita H. Shah ◽  
Ankush H. Suthar ◽  
Ekta N. Jayswal
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control Theory ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Intervention Strategies ◽  
Public Health Emergency ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
World Health ◽  
The World ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

On 11 March 2020, the World Health Organization declared the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-Cov-2) a pandemic and a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. As of 29 March 2020, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has affected 199 countries and territories, resulting in 683,536 positive cases and causing 32,139 deaths. The pandemic has the potential to become extremely destructive globally if not treated seriously. In this study, we propose a generalized SEIR model of COVID-19 to study the behaviour of its transmission under different control strategies. In the model, all possible cases of human-to-human transmission are considered and its reproduction number is formulated to analyse the accurate transmission dynamics of the coronavirus outbreak. Optimal control theory is applied to the model to demonstrate the impact of various intervention strategies, including voluntary quarantine, isolation of infected individuals, improving an individual's immunity, and hospitalization. In addition, the effect of control strategies on the model is analysed graphically by simulating the model numerically.

scholarly journals A DIFFERENTIAL EQUATION FOR THE ENTROPY OF RURAL TOURISM IN THE CONTEXT OF COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 4-8
Author(s):  
Amelia Bucur ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Differential Equation ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Quality Management ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Rural Tourism ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The World ◽  
Tourism Organization ◽  
The Impact

The tourism industry was one of the world’s greatest markets, until the world was affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Now, tourism managers have to carefully assess the impact of epidemics on their businesses and develop new risk management methods to cope with the crisis. The current pandemic has created an opportunity for the development of rural tourism. This study aims to present a mathematical modeling of the entropy of rural tourism in the context of COVID-19 and a differential equation verified by this entropy. The model presented in this paper reflects the entropy of the preference for this type of tourism and a differential equation that models its variation. This paper aims to offer a tool to measure uncertainty regarding this topic. The model can be generalized and applied to any epidemic. The model could be used by specialists in quality management and mathematical modeling, managers of rural tourism organizations, local authorities, to estimate the entropy regarding how rural tourism has been and is still impacted by the COVID-19. The results obtained will help policy makers take necessary strategic and operational decisions, along with maximizing the profit of the rural tourism organization as well as the safety of the tourists

scholarly journals Control Strategies to Curtail Transmission of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nita H. Shah ◽  
Ankush H. Suthar ◽  
Ekta N. Jayswal
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control Theory ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Intervention Strategies ◽  
Public Health Emergency ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
World Health ◽  
The World ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

AbstractRecently the World Health Organization has declared the outbreak of a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-Cov-2) as a pandemic, and declared it as Public Health Emergency of International Concern. More than 683,536 positive cases and 32,139 deaths caused by novel corona virus 2019 (COVID-19) has affected 199 countries and territories. This pandemic can transform into an extremely destructive form if we still do not take it seriously. In the present study, we propose a generalized SEIR model of COVID-19 to study the behaviour of its transmission under different control strategies. In the model, all possible cases of human to human transmission are taken care and its reproduction number is formulated to analyse accurate transmission dynamics of the coronavirus outbreak. Optimal control theory is applied in the model to pretend the impact of various intervention strategies, including voluntary quarantine, isolation of infected individuals, improving an individual’s immunity and hospitalisation. Also, effect of the control strategies on model is analysed graphically by simulating the model numerically.

Unveiling the Theoretical Mistakes in the World Bank Formation and its Implication on Survival of Africa Monetary Union

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 119-124
Author(s):  
Olatunji Abdul Shobande ◽  
Kingsley Chinonso Mark
Keyword(s):  
World Bank ◽  
Monetary Union ◽  
Political Interest ◽  
World Bank Group ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
The World ◽  
Bank Group ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Developed Nations

Abstract The quest for urgent solution to resolve the world liquidity problem has continued to generate enthusiastic debates among political economists, policy makers and the academia. The argument has focused on whether the World Bank Group was established to enhance the stability of international financial system or meant to enrich the developed nations. This study argues that the existing political interest of the World Bank Group in Africa may serve as lesson learned to other ambitious African Monetary Union.

The relevance of dietetic approach of Ayurveda from the perspective of COVID-19 pandemic

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (SPL1) ◽  
pp. 748-752
Author(s):  
Swapnali Khabade ◽  
Bharat Rathi ◽  
Renu Rathi
Keyword(s):  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Healthy Person ◽  
World Health ◽  
Physical And Mental Health ◽  
Leading Role ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
The People ◽  
The World ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Individual

A novel, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), causes severe acute respiratory syndrome and spread globally from Wuhan, China. In March 2020 the World Health Organization declared the SARS-Cov-2 virus as a COVID- 19, a global pandemic. This pandemic happened to be followed by some restrictions, and specially lockdown playing the leading role for the people to get disassociated with their personal and social schedules. And now the food is the most necessary thing to take care of. It seems the new challenge for the individual is self-isolation to maintain themselves on the health basis and fight against the pandemic situation by boosting their immunity. Food organised by proper diet may maintain the physical and mental health of the individual. Ayurveda aims to promote and preserve the health, strength and the longevity of the healthy person and to cure the disease by properly channelling with and without Ahara. In Ayurveda, diet (Ahara) is considered as one of the critical pillars of life, and Langhana plays an important role too. This article will review the relevance of dietetic approach described in Ayurveda with and without food (Asthavidhi visheshaytana & Lanhgan) during COVID-19 like a pandemic.

M. A. Ayuh. Made in Jamaica: The Development of Manufacturing Sector. Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press. 1981. xxii+128 pp.

1986 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-95
Author(s):  
Najam-us- Saqib
Keyword(s):  
Manufacturing Industry ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Industrial Base ◽  
Johns Hopkins University ◽  
Key Characteristics ◽  
The World ◽  
Caribbean Country ◽  
Bauxite Ore ◽  
Made In

Jamaica, known in the world for her rich deposits of bauxite ore, is a small Caribbean country with an area of 10991 square kilometers and a population of just over two million individuals. This beautifu11and, which was described by Columbus as "The fairest isle that eyes have beheld" has developed a remarkably diversified manufacturing sector starting from a modest industrial base. Jamaica's manufacturing industry enjoyed a respectable growth rate of about 6 percent per annum during the good old days of the euphoric '50s and '60s. However, those bright sunny days ''when to live was bliss" were followed by the chilling winter of much subdued progress. The rise and fall of growth have aroused considerable interest among economists and policy• makers. The book under review probes the causes of this behaviour by analysing key characteristics of Jamaican manufacturing sector and tracing its path of evolution.

Dirk J. Wolfson. Public Finance and development Strategy. Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press. 1979. Pp. xiv+264.

1982 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 255-257
Author(s):  
Zafar Mahmood
Keyword(s):  
Public Finance ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Public Administration ◽  
Development Strategy ◽  
Executive Branch ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Use Of Resources ◽  
Johns Hopkins University ◽  
The World ◽  
Economic Council

The world in its politico-economic aspects is run by policy-makers who have an academic background in law or public administration or other related social disciplines including economics. Only rarely would a majority of the policy-makers be trained in economics. In the making of economic policy, the basic choices before the policy-makers are political and they transcend the narrow concerns of economists regarding optimal use of resources. These considerations in no way downgrade the relevance of economic analysis in economic policy-making and for the training of policy-maker in economics. Policy-makers need economic council to understand fully the implications of alternative policy options. In this book, Wolfson attempts to educate policy-makers in the areas of public finance and development strategy. The analysis avoids technicalities and is kept to a simple level to make it understandable to civil servants, law-makers and members of the executive branch whom Wolfson refers to as policy-makers. Simplicity of analysis is not the only distinguishing mark of this book. Most other books on public finance are usually addressed to traditional public finance issues relating to both the revenue and expenditure sides of the budget and neglect an overall mix of issues dealing with the interaction of fiscal policy with economic development. Wolfson in this book explicitly deals with these issues.

Plasma therapy a possible hope to fight against COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ravikant Piyush ◽  
Aroni Chatterjee ◽  
Shashikant Ray
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Viral Disease ◽  
Plasma Therapy ◽  
Therapeutic Drugs ◽  
Wild Fire ◽  
The World ◽  
Short Span ◽  
Game Changer

The world is currently going through a disastrous event and a catastrophic upheaval caused by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The pandemic has resulted in loss of more than 150000 deaths across the globe. Originating from China and spreading across all continents within a short span of time, it has become a matter of international emergency. Different agencies are adopting diverse approaches to stop and spread of this viral disease but still now nothing confirmatory has come up. Due to lack of vaccines and proper therapeutic drugs, the disease is still spreading like wild fire without control. An Old but very promising method- the convalescent plasma therapy could be the key therapy to stop this pandemic. This method has already proven its mettle on several occasions previously and has been found to be effective in curing the pandemics induced by Ebola, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) belongs to the same group of β-Coronavirus that has resulted in the above diseases. Therefore, the role of plasma therapy is being explored for treatment of this disease. In this review, we have mainly focused on the role of convalescent plasma therapy and why its use should be promoted in fight against COVID-19, as it could turn out to be a game changer.

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