scholarly journals Why optional stopping can be a problem for Bayesians

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rianne de Heide ◽  
Peter D. Grünwald
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Methods ◽  
Bayes Factor ◽  
Type Ii ◽  
Psychonomic Bulletin ◽  
Practical Applications ◽  
Psychological Science ◽  
Optional Stopping ◽  
Psychology Community ◽  
Severe Type ◽  
Parameters Of Interest

AbstractRecently, optional stopping has been a subject of debate in the Bayesian psychology community. Rouder (Psychonomic Bulletin & Review21(2), 301–308, 2014) argues that optional stopping is no problem for Bayesians, and even recommends the use of optional stopping in practice, as do (Wagenmakers, Wetzels, Borsboom, van der Maas & Kievit, Perspectives on Psychological Science7, 627–633, 2012). This article addresses the question of whether optional stopping is problematic for Bayesian methods, and specifies under which circumstances and in which sense it is and is not. By slightly varying and extending Rouder’s (Psychonomic Bulletin & Review21(2), 301–308, 2014) experiments, we illustrate that, as soon as the parameters of interest are equipped with default or pragmatic priors—which means, in most practical applications of Bayes factor hypothesis testing—resilience to optional stopping can break down. We distinguish between three types of default priors, each having their own specific issues with optional stopping, ranging from no-problem-at-all (type 0 priors) to quite severe (type II priors).

scholarly journals Quantifying Support for the Null Hypothesis in Psychology: An Empirical Investigation

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 357-366 ◽  
Author(s):  
Balazs Aczel ◽  
Bence Palfi ◽  
Aba Szollosi ◽  
Marton Kovacs ◽  
Barnabas Szaszi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Null Hypothesis ◽  
Bayes Factor ◽  
Empirical Investigation ◽  
Alternative Hypothesis ◽  
Review Journal ◽  
Psychonomic Bulletin ◽  
Statistical Tool ◽  
Psychological Science ◽  
Statistical Framework

In the traditional statistical framework, nonsignificant results leave researchers in a state of suspended disbelief. In this study, we examined, empirically, the treatment and evidential impact of nonsignificant results. Our specific goals were twofold: to explore how psychologists interpret and communicate nonsignificant results and to assess how much these results constitute evidence in favor of the null hypothesis. First, we examined all nonsignificant findings mentioned in the abstracts of the 2015 volumes of Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, and Psychological Science ( N = 137). In 72% of these cases, nonsignificant results were misinterpreted, in that the authors inferred that the effect was absent. Second, a Bayes factor reanalysis revealed that fewer than 5% of the nonsignificant findings provided strong evidence (i.e., BF01 > 10) in favor of the null hypothesis over the alternative hypothesis. We recommend that researchers expand their statistical tool kit in order to correctly interpret nonsignificant results and to be able to evaluate the evidence for and against the null hypothesis.

scholarly journals Quantifying Support for the Null Hypothesis in Psychology: An Empirical Investigation

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Balazs Aczel ◽  
Bence Palfi ◽  
Aba Szollosi ◽  
Marton Kovacs ◽  
Szaszi Barnabas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Experimental Psychology ◽  
Null Hypothesis ◽  
Bayes Factor ◽  
Empirical Investigation ◽  
Alternative Hypothesis ◽  
Review Journal ◽  
Psychonomic Bulletin ◽  
Psychological Science ◽  
Statistical Framework

In the traditional statistical framework, nonsignificant results leave researchers in a state of suspended disbelief. This study examines, empirically, the treatment and evidential impact of nonsignificant results. Our specific goals were twofold: to explore how psychologists interpret and communicate nonsignificant results, and to assess how much these results constitute evidence in favor of the null hypothesis. Firstly, we examined all nonsignificant findings mentioned in the abstracts of the 2015 volume of Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, and Psychological Science (N = 137). In 72% of cases, nonsignificant results were misinterpreted, in the sense that authors inferred that the effect was absent. Secondly, a Bayes factor reanalysis revealed that fewer than 5% of the nonsignificant findings provided strong evidence (i.e., BF01 > 10) in favor of the null hypothesis compared to the alternative hypothesis. We recommend that researchers expand their statistical toolkit in order to correctly interpret nonsignificant results and to be able to evaluate the evidence for and against the null hypothesis.

scholarly journals Editorial: Bayesian methods for advancing psychological science

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joachim Vandekerckhove ◽  
Jeffrey N. Rouder ◽  
John K. Kruschke
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Methods ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
Psychonomic Bulletin ◽  
Psychological Science

The editorial for a Special Issue of the journal Psychonomic Bulletin & Review.

scholarly journals A Locomotor Disorder Clinically Similar to Spastic Paresis in an Adult Friesian Bull

1980 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 305-315 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Bradley ◽  
W.V.S. Wueratne
Keyword(s):  
Skeletal Muscles ◽  
Hind Limb ◽  
Type I ◽  
Type Ii ◽  
Hind Limbs ◽  
Type Ii Cell ◽  
Spastic Paresis ◽  
Flexor Digitorum ◽  
I Cells ◽  
Severe Type

A 5-year-old Friesian stud bull developed a progressive locomotor disorder on return to stud after a period of rest. He had defects in conformation exacerbated by poor condition. The hind limbs were excessively straight. When he stood or moved, the Achilles tendons and their associated muscles were rigid. The disorder clinically resembled spastic paresis of calves. Necropsy showed a degenerative arthropathy in all hind limb joints below the hip. Lesions were also in tendons and skeletal muscles. The M. flexor digitorum superficialis had severe type II cell atrophy with many ring. lobulated and moth-eaten type I cells.

Quadri teorici e modelli operativi: lo stato della psicologia della salute italiana nell'orizzonte internazionale

2009 ◽  
pp. 21-31
Author(s):  
Paola Gremigni ◽  
Bitti Pio Enrico Ricci
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Psychology ◽  
Community Health ◽  
Medical Psychology ◽  
Graduate Courses ◽  
Occupational Health Psychology ◽  
Clinical Health Psychology ◽  
Practical Applications ◽  
European Health ◽  
Psychology Community

- This paper aims at tracing a brief history and background of Health Psychology, from its origin, in 1978 within the APA Division 38, up to our days. In Italy, Health Psychology developed in the Seventies from Medical Psychology and nowadays it is a well defined discipline, with a national scientific Society, linked to the European Health Psychology Society, several courses within the faculties of Psychology, and few post-graduate courses. As Health Psychology is both a theoretical and applied field, recent advances, especially in North America and UK, have lead to the development of specific sub-disciplines, such as Clinical health psychology, Occupational health psychology, Public health psychology, Community health psychology, and Critical health psychology. In Italy also there is a recent interest for these areas, which is reflected in the variety of published studies and practical applications in different contexts (i.e., healthcare, schools, work, and public and community health). Although the necessity of creating separate sub-disciplines has not yet emerged in Italy, the Italian Health Psychology is currently characterized by a great variety of research methods, both quantitative and qualitative, and by a critical analysis and a deep evaluation of different theoretical orientations. Key words: clinical health psychology, critical health psychology, health psychology, occupational psychology, community psychology, medical psychology, public health.

scholarly journals Computing Bayes factors for evidence-accumulation models using Warp-III bridge sampling

2019 ◽  
Vol 52 (2) ◽  
pp. 918-937
Author(s):  
Quentin F. Gronau ◽  
Andrew Heathcote ◽  
Dora Matzke
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Estimation ◽  
Model Comparison ◽  
Bayes Factor ◽  
Parameter Inference ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical ◽  
Practical Applications ◽  
Evidence Accumulation ◽  
Bridge Sampling ◽  
Linear Ballistic Accumulator ◽  
Complex Models

AbstractOver the last decade, the Bayesian estimation of evidence-accumulation models has gained popularity, largely due to the advantages afforded by the Bayesian hierarchical framework. Despite recent advances in the Bayesian estimation of evidence-accumulation models, model comparison continues to rely on suboptimal procedures, such as posterior parameter inference and model selection criteria known to favor overly complex models. In this paper, we advocate model comparison for evidence-accumulation models based on the Bayes factor obtained via Warp-III bridge sampling. We demonstrate, using the linear ballistic accumulator (LBA), that Warp-III sampling provides a powerful and flexible approach that can be applied to both nested and non-nested model comparisons, even in complex and high-dimensional hierarchical instantiations of the LBA. We provide an easy-to-use software implementation of the Warp-III sampler and outline a series of recommendations aimed at facilitating the use of Warp-III sampling in practical applications.

scholarly journals Serum Interferon (IFN)-Neutralizing Antibodies and Bioactivities of IFNs in Patients with Severe Type II Essential Mixed Cryoglobulinemia

2003 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 70-77 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carolina Scagnolari ◽  
Milvia Casato ◽  
Francesca Bellomi ◽  
Francesca De Pisa ◽  
Ombretta Turriziani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mrna Expression ◽  
Clinical Response ◽  
Neutralizing Antibodies ◽  
Mononuclear Cells ◽  
Mixed Cryoglobulinemia ◽  
Mrna Levels ◽  
Type Ii ◽  
Essential Mixed Cryoglobulinemia ◽  
Peripheral Blood Mononuclear ◽  
Severe Type

ABSTRACT The efficacy of alpha interferon (IFN-α) in the treatment of severe type II essential mixed cryoglobulinemia (EMC) has been reported previously. In some patients, the development of neutralizing antibodies to recombinant IFN-α (rIFN-α) can affect the clinical response achieved with rIFN-α; a second treatment with natural IFN-α preparations may reinduce the clinical response. In the present study the ability of leukocyte IFN (LeIFN) to restore the response was investigated from a pharmacodynamic viewpoint. Specifically, the pharmacodynamic profiles of different IFN-α preparations were studied by measuring the serum neopterin levels and the levels of expression of protein MxA mRNA in in vivo peripheral blood mononuclear cells in two patients with EMC whose resistance to rIFN-α2a treatment increased concomitantly with the development of neutralizing antibodies. These markers were measured before injection and at 24 and 48 h after a single injection of rIFN-α2a, consensus IFN [(C)IFN], or LeIFN. No increase or only a slight increase in MxA mRNA levels was detectable after administration of rIFN-α2a or (C)IFN, whereas a significant increase (≥10-fold) in MxA mRNA expression was recorded following administration of LeIFN. The neutralizing antibodies to rIFN-α2a cross-react with (C)IFN. Sera from these patients neutralized most but not all of the subtypes present in the natural IFN-α (LeIFN) mixture, and no significant increase in neopterin levels was observed after these patients were switched to LeIFN treatment. In summary, the data demonstrate that the problem of neutralizing antibodies still exists and that LeIFN may induce an increase in the level of MxA mRNA expression but not an increase in neopterin levels in patients who are resistant to treatment with rIFN-α2a or (C)IFN.

Assessment and surgical outcomes for mild type I and severe type II cortical dysplasia: A critical review and the UCLA experience

Epilepsia ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 50 (6) ◽  
pp. 1310-1335 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason T. Lerner ◽  
Noriko Salamon ◽  
Jason S. Hauptman ◽  
Tonicarlo R. Velasco ◽  
Marta Hemb ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Critical Review ◽  
Surgical Outcomes ◽  
Cortical Dysplasia ◽  
Type I ◽  
Type Ii ◽  
Severe Type

scholarly journals Computing Bayes Factors for Evidence-Accumulation Models Using Warp-III Bridge Sampling

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Quentin Frederik Gronau ◽  
Andrew Heathcote ◽  
Dora Matzke
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Estimation ◽  
Model Comparison ◽  
Bayes Factor ◽  
Parameter Inference ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical ◽  
Practical Applications ◽  
Evidence Accumulation ◽  
Bridge Sampling ◽  
Linear Ballistic Accumulator ◽  
Complex Models

Over the last decade, the Bayesian estimation of evidence-accumulation models has gained popularity, largely due to the advantages afforded by the Bayesian hierarchical framework. Despite recent advances in the Bayesian estimation of evidence-accumulation models, model comparison continues to rely on suboptimal procedures, such as posterior parameter inference and model selection criteria known to favor overly complex models. In this paper we advocate model comparison for evidence-accumulation models based on the Bayes factor obtained via Warp-III bridge sampling. We demonstrate, using the Linear Ballistic Accumulator (LBA), that Warp-III sampling provides a powerful and flexible approach that can be applied to both nested and non-nested model comparisons, even in complex and high-dimensional hierarchical instantiations of the LBA. We provide an easy-to-use software implementation of the Warp-III sampler and outline a series of recommendations aimed at facilitating the use of Warp-III sampling in practical applications.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document