scholarly journals PREDICTION FOR TRAFFIC ACCIDENT SEVERITY: COMPARING THE ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK, GENETIC ALGORITHM, COMBINED GENETIC ALGORITHM AND PATTERN SEARCH METHODS

Transport ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 353-366 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehmet Metin Kunt ◽  
Iman Aghayan ◽  
Nima Noii

This paper focuses on predicting the severity of freeway traffic accidents by employing twelve accident-related parameters in a genetic algorithm (GA), pattern search and artificial neural network (ANN) modelling methods. The models were developed using the input parameters of driver's age and gender, the use of a seat belt, the type and safety of a vehicle, weather conditions, road surface, speed ratio, crash time, crash type, collision type and traffic flow. The models were constructed based on 1000 of crashes in total that occurred during 2007 on the Tehran–Ghom Freeway due to the fact that the remaining records were not suitable for this study. The GA evaluated eleven equations to obtain the best one. Then, GA and PS methods were combined using the best GA equation. The neural network used multi-layer perceptron (MLP) architecture that consisted of a multi-layer feed-forward network with hidden sigmoid and linear output neurons that could also fit multi-dimensional mapping problems arbitrarily well. The ANN was applied during training, testing and validation and had 12 inputs, 25 neurons in the hidden layers and 3 neurons in the output layer. The best-fit model was selected according to the R-value, root mean square errors (RMSE), mean absolute errors (MAE) and the sum of square error (SSE). The highest R-value was obtained for the ANN around 0.87, demonstrating that the ANN provided the best prediction. The combination of GA and PS methods allowed for various prediction rankings ranging from linear relationships to complex equations. The advantage of these models is improving themselves adding new data.

Author(s):  
Majid Gholami Shirkoohi ◽  
Mouna Doghri ◽  
Sophie Duchesne

Abstract The application of artificial neural network (ANN) models for short-term (15 min) urban water demand predictions is evaluated. Optimization of the ANN model's hyperparameters with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) and use of a growing window approach for training the model are also evaluated. The results are compared to those of commonly used time series models, namely the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and a pattern-based model. The evaluations are based on data sets from two Canadian cities, providing 15 minute water consumption records over respectively 5 years and 23 months, with a respective mean water demand of 14,560 and 887 m3/d. The GA optimized ANN model performed better than the other models, with Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiencies of 0.91 and 0.83, and Relative Root Mean Square Errors of 6 and 16% for City 1 and City 2, respectively. The results of this study indicate that the optimization of the hyperparameters of an ANN model can lead to better 15 min urban water demand predictions, which are useful for many real time control applications, such as dynamic pressure control.


2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Mehdi Arab ◽  
Abbas Yadollahi ◽  
Maliheh Eftekhari ◽  
Hamed Ahmadi ◽  
Mohammad Akbari ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
Sandip K Lahiri ◽  
Kartik Chandra Ghanta

Four distinct regimes were found existent (namely sliding bed, saltation, heterogeneous suspension and homogeneous suspension) in slurry flow in pipeline depending upon the average velocity of flow. In the literature, few numbers of correlations has been proposed for identification of these regimes in slurry pipelines. Regime identification is important for slurry pipeline design as they are the prerequisite to apply different pressure drop correlation in different regime. However, available correlations fail to predict the regime over a wide range of conditions. Based on a databank of around 800 measurements collected from the open literature, a method has been proposed to identify the regime using artificial neural network (ANN) modeling. The method incorporates hybrid artificial neural network and genetic algorithm technique (ANN-GA) for efficient tuning of ANN meta parameters. Statistical analysis showed that the proposed method has an average misclassification error of 0.03%. A comparison with selected correlations in the literature showed that the developed ANN-GA method noticeably improved prediction of regime over a wide range of operating conditions, physical properties, and pipe diameters.


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