scholarly journals IDENTIFYING KEY DETERMINANTS OF HOUSING SALES AND TIME-ON-THE-MARKET (TOM) USING FUZZY COGNITIVE MAPPING

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 235-244 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernando A. F. FERREIRA ◽  
Marjan S. JALALI
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Cognitive Mapping ◽  
Cognitive Maps ◽  
Fuzzy Cognitive Maps ◽  
Residential Real Estate ◽  
Residential Housing ◽  
Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping ◽  
Time On The Market ◽  
Home Sales ◽  
Housing Attributes

Price and residential housing attributes have long been identified as key determinants of home sales and, as such, they can explain time-on-the-market (TOM). It is acknowledged, however, that there are other factors (or determinants) that influence home sales and TOM, which are of great importance but seldom taken into account in the appraisal process of residential real estate. Based on the use of fuzzy cognitive mapping, we propose a framework that adds value to the way that key determinants of housing sales and TOM are identified. This framework is the result of a process involving several residential real estate experts (i.e.appraisers and realtors), and follows a constructivist approach. Our findings suggest that the use of fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) allows the number of omitted determinants to be reduced and the understanding of the relationships between them to be improved. The strengths and weaknesses of our methodological framework are also discussed.

scholarly journals FOR SALE… BUT FOR HOW LONG? A METHODOLOGICAL PROPOSAL FOR ESTIMATING TIME-ON-THE-MARKET

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 309-324 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vanda C. S. MARTINS ◽  
Marlene N. M. FILIPE ◽  
Fernando A. F. FERREIRA ◽  
Marjan S. JALALI ◽  
Nelson J. S. ANTÓNIO
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Evaluation System ◽  
Socioeconomic Development ◽  
Cognitive Mapping ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Residential Real Estate ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Time On The Market ◽  
Measurement Framework

Residential real estate assumes crucial importance in a country's socioeconomic development. It is an important field of study, and much work has gone into better understanding the sector and the factors determining sales within it, such as time-on-the-market (TOM). TOM can be influenced by a variety of elements; a fact that in effect raises a lot of issues, because these determinants are often interpreted in an ambiguous or unstructured way. This study aims to bring greater accuracy and structure to our understanding of these factors, by showing that the integrated use of cognitive mapping with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) can give rise to a conceptually coherent and empirically valid framework to calculate TOM indices in the residential real estate market. Because it takes into account both tangible and intangible characteristics of a house, this measurement framework also boosts strategic planning support and allows for more informed business planning, which we believe can be a real contribution to the development of the real estate market. The practical implications and limitations of this evaluation system are also discussed.

Is the Risk of Sea Level Rise Capitalized in Residential Real Estate?

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 1217-1255 ◽  
Author(s):  
Justin Murfin ◽  
Matthew Spiegel
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Residential Real Estate ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Null Results ◽  
Expected Time ◽  
Vertical Land Motion ◽  
Price Effects ◽  
Home Sales

Abstract Using a comprehensive database of coastal home sales merged with data on elevation relative to local tides, we compare prices for houses based on their inundation threshold under projections of sea level rise. The analysis separates the sensitivity of housing to rising seas from other confounding characteristics by exploiting cross-sectional differences in relative sea level rise due to vertical land motion. This provides variation in the expected time to inundation for properties of similar elevation and distance from the coast. In a variety of specifications and test settings, we find precisely estimated null results suggesting limited price effects.

scholarly journals A FUZZY KNOWLEDGE-BASED FRAMEWORK FOR RISK ASSESSMENT OF RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 140-156 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mónica I. F. RIBEIRO ◽  
Fernando A. F. FERREIRA ◽  
Marjan S. JALALI ◽  
Ieva MEIDUTĖ-KAVALIAUSKIENĖ
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Cognitive Mapping ◽  
Reference Model ◽  
Fuzzy Model ◽  
Careful Analysis ◽  
Residential Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Investments ◽  
Residential Properties

Risk analysis of residential real estate investments requires careful analysis of certain variables (or determinants). Because real estate is a key sector for economic and social development, this risk analysis is seen as critical in supporting decision processes relating to buying or selling residential properties, partly due to the pressures caused by the current economic environment. This study aims to develop a conceptual reference model for risk assessment of residential real estate using fuzzy cognitive mapping. This fuzzy model allows cause-and-effect relationships between determinants to be identified and better understood, which in turn allows for better informed investment decisions. The results show that the use of cognitive maps reduces the number of omitted criteria and favors learning with regard to how the criteria relate to each other, holding great potential and versatility in structuring complex decision problems. Practical implications, strengths and weaknesses of our proposal are discussed.

scholarly journals Can green labels become the new normal?

2019 ◽  
Vol 111 ◽  
pp. 03053
Author(s):  
German Molina ◽  
Michael Donn ◽  
Micael-Lee Johnstone ◽  
Casimir MacGregor
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Willingness To Pay ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Price Premium ◽  
Purchase Price ◽  
Residential Real Estate ◽  
Residential Housing ◽  
Property Prices ◽  
Market Transformation

This study sought to review the effectiveness of green labels on the residential real estate market. As past studies revealed, green labels increased property prices, which motivated developers to build more green certified buildings. However, contradictory studies revealed that many developers did not use green labels due to a lack of consumer demand. Therefore, what impact do green labels have on the residential housing market? A meta-analysis of 36 articles presenting 52 different studies, published between 2008-2018, suggests that the price premium charged for green labels may have been systematically overestimated. Consumers’ willingness-to-pay (derived from correlating green labels with purchase price) does not necessarily represent the average consumer but green consumers. The conclusion that follows from this analysis is that full market transformation via green labels is unlikely to take place because only a fraction of the population is willing to pay the premium. Therefore, full adoption is unlikely without other market “interventions”.

scholarly journals CLASSIFICATION AND SELECTION OF TENANTS IN RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE: A CONSTRUCTIVIST APPROACH

2018 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manuel B. C. B. F. FONSECA ◽  
Fernando A. F. FERREIRA ◽  
Wenchang FANG ◽  
Marjan S. JALALI
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Decision Problem ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Cognitive Maps ◽  
Constructivist Approach ◽  
Residential Real Estate ◽  
Good Relationship ◽  
Rental Market ◽  
Selection Of

Choosing a tenant is a key issue in the housing rental market. Knowing, a priori, whether a tenant will pay the rent on time, be able to hold a good relationship with the neighbors or take care of the property (i.e. whether s/he will be a “good” tenant) is not a simple endeavor. It is crucial, however, as it can help save time, money and conflicts that can end up in court. This study aims to address this issue, through the integrated use of cognitive maps and the Decision EXpert (DEX) technique. Grounded on a constructivist logic, the study brought together a panel of experts with experience and knowledge in the residential rental market, in order to identify and articulate the criteria to be taken into account in the classification and selection of tenants. The results achieved show that the integration of these two methodologies (i.e. cognitive maps and DEX) can help increase our understanding of the decision problem at hand, and lead to more informed and potentially better tenant choices. Advantages and limitations of the framework are also discussed.

Key determinants of time on the market: an analysis of residential housing market in Sri Lanka

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nishani Champika Wickramaarachchi ◽  
Seetha Kusum Chandani ◽  
Malka Thilini
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
City Center ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Time On The Market ◽  
Residential Units ◽  
Housing Attributes ◽  
The City

Purpose Developing residential units is crucial in the socio-economic development of a country. The investor faces not only uncertain transaction price (price risk), but also uncertainties about the marketing period risk. Predicting when the incurred money is being realized is difficult because of the imperfect nature of the real estate market. Thus, the purpose of this study is to analyze the variables that explain the time on the market (TOM) of housing units, identifying the relationships in-between and the effects on TOM of residential properties. Design/methodology/approach Following a multi-stage sampling process, a random sample of 120 housing units was selected. Data were collected using a self-administered questionnaire. The questionnaire contained 57 variables that can affect TOM. Semi-structured interviews were conducted to confirm some of the data and information on residential units from the developers. Direct observations were conducted to verify certain physical attributes and, finally, they were comprehensively analyzed using quantitative analysis techniques in SPSS 16.0 Statistical package. Findings Results confirmed that lesser advertising prices, attractive environment, proximity to the city center and proper shape of lands reduce the TOM. Similarly, higher prices, longer distance to the city center and irregular shape of land increase the TOM. The results strengthen the necessity of a comfortable environment appropriate to live, probably with greenery or water bodies, which is a key influential factor that reduces the TOM in Sri Lanka. Originality/value wIn the Sri Lankan context, there are few contributions to the real estate literature in this regard. Many scholars have concentrated on physical and economic characteristics, whereas this research adds the environmental factors. Therefore, this research makes a significant contribution to the body of knowledge in this area, as it puts more attention on including several variables, as well as newly introduced variables as determinants. Consumers can apply the research findings to assess the relative importance of housing attributes and services which they perceive most valuable, and then to make their purchase decisions. The findings also contribute to the investigations of the behavior of housing attributes and enable knowing as to what factors are to be promoted and what to be omitted to gain a shorter TOM.

International Real Estate Review

2002 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 91-115
Author(s):  
Charles Ka Yui Leung ◽  
◽  
Youngman Chun Fai Leong ◽  
Ida Yin Sze Chan ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Residential Property ◽  
Price Ratio ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Time On The Market ◽  
Highly Active ◽  
Inflation Factor ◽  
Housing Attributes

In an efficient market, differences in quality should be fully reflected in differences in price. This paper examines a highly active residential property market and verifies whether housing attributes can explain time on the market (TOM) in addition to prices. In contrast to the previous literature, only the price ratio and inflation factor are found to be critical in affecting TOM. An interpretation of the results is suggested, along with some directions for future research.

scholarly journals BARRIERS TO REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS FOR RESIDENTIAL RENTAL PURPOSES: MAPPING OUT THE PROBLEM

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 168-178 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adriana S. C. PIRES ◽  
Fernando A. F. FERREIRA ◽  
Marjan S. JALALI ◽  
Hsiao-Chen CHANG
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Cognitive Mapping ◽  
Cognitive Maps ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Number Of Factors ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Real Estate Investments ◽  
Complex Decision ◽  
Practical Implications

The recent economic crisis led to significant changes in the real estate market; one of which was a shift toward home rental (rather than buying). Real estate investors have an important role in the growth of the rental market. However, there are often hindrances to investing for residential rental purposes. In order to overcome these barriers, they first need to be identified and understood. With this in mind, the main focus of this investigation was the creation of a conceptual model, through fuzzy cognitive mapping, to identify and understand the cause-and-effect relationships between the factors that represent an obstacle to real estate investments for residential rental purposes. The results show that cognitive maps can be of great use for the structuring of complex decision problems, minimizing the number of factors left out of the decision making process. In particular, the tenant risk behavior, property location and associated costs (for the owner) were identified as the main obstacles to real estate investment rental propose. The practical implications of the model, as well as the advantages and limitations of the process followed, are also discussed.

scholarly journals Classifying Residential Real Estate Based on Their Exposure to Crime: a Research Agenda

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara C. R. Marques ◽  
Fernando A. F. Ferreira ◽  
Ieva Meidutė-Kavaliauskienė
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Research Agenda ◽  
Cognitive Mapping ◽  
Daily Basis ◽  
Residential Real Estate ◽  
Residential Areas ◽  
Sense Of Security ◽  
Evaluation Mechanism ◽  
The Mind

Criminality and sense of security in residential areas are always present in the mind of citizens, and directly affect the work of police authorities, real estate agents and society at large. This study proposes the development of a multiple criteria model for the classification of residential areas based on their exposure to crime. By combining cognitive mapping with the Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical Based Evaluation Technique (MACBETH), we also aim to increase transparency in the classification process of residential real estate, allowing improvement initiatives to be applied and crime rates to be reduced. The major difference between our proposal and the extant literature is the fact that the information collected from criminal, urbanism and real estate experts, who deal with crime adversities on a daily basis, will be analyzed and discussed during presential group meetings, allowing realism to be incorporated into the evaluation mechanism. The current proposal is a research agenda, and results will not yet be presented.

scholarly journals USING MULTIPLE CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS (MCDA) TO ASSIST IN ESTIMATING RESIDENTIAL HOUSING VALUES

2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 354-370 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernando A. F. FERREIRA ◽  
Ronald W. SPAHR ◽  
Mark A. SUNDERMAN
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Decision Analysis ◽  
Cognitive Mapping ◽  
Panel Study ◽  
Multiple Criteria ◽  
Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Residential Real Estate ◽  
Explanatory Factors ◽  
Managerial Implications

Considerable literature exists regarding the complexity of the residential real estate appraisal process and the methods employed to determine initial listing prices as estimates of intrinsic market prices. Deviations in residential real estate intrinsic values occur due to a multiplicity of attributes and explanatory factors requiring consideration. We conduct a panel study using a Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) based framework that utilizes the skills and knowledge of a panel of residential real estate professionals (i.e. appraisers and realtors). We demonstrate how cognitive mapping and the Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical Based Evaluation Technique (MACBETH) may assist in estimating appropriate offer/sale prices and strengthening current valuation approaches such as using comparables and/or hedonic modeling. The managerial implications of our MCDA-based framework and some avenues for future research are also presented.

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