Risk Assessment Based on Event Tree for Loss of Cooling Accident at a vSMR

Author(s):  
Nathália Nunes Araájo ◽  
Maritza Rodriguez Gual ◽  
Hugo da Costa Romberg Júnior ◽  
Marcos Coelho Maturana ◽  
Marcelo Ramos Martins
Keyword(s):  
Author(s):  
Xinping Yan ◽  
Jinfen Zhang ◽  
Di Zhang ◽  
Carlos Guedes Soares

Concerns have been raised to navigational safety worldwide because of the increasing throughput and the passing ships during the past decades while maritime accidents such as collisions, groundings, overturns, oil-spills and fires have occurred, causing serious consequences. Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) has been acknowledged to be a framework widely used in maritime risk assessment. Under this framework, this paper discusses certain existing challenges when an effective safety assessment is carried out under a variety of uncertainties. Some theories and methodologies are proposed to overcome the present challenges, e.g., Fault/Event Tree Analysis (FTA/ETA), Evidential Reasoning (ER), Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) and Belief Rule Base (BRB). Subsequently, three typical case studies that have been carried out in the Yangtze River are introduced to illustrate the general application of those approaches. These examples aim to demonstrate how advanced methodologies can facilitate navigational risk assessment under high uncertainties.


Author(s):  
Mohammad Kazem RAMEZANI KHOSHNAMEH ◽  
Mahnaz MIRZA EBRAHIM TEHRANI ◽  
Yousef BABAYI MESDARAGHI

Introduction: The release of storage tanks' contents can lead to consequences such as BLEVE, explosions, fires, etc. Therefore, identifying the causes of content release, determining the scenarios, consequences, and possibility of incidents are required to prevent possible accidents. Moreover, the vulnerability and safety ranges should be determined to minimize the losses. Methods: In this research, the Bowtie method was used to evaluate the risk caused by the pressurized reservoirs. After identifying the risks of process hazards and determining the main, middle, and base events, the fault tree was mapped. Then, the events probability was calculated. In the next step, the event tree was designed to determine different scenarios of events and identify the consequences of each incident. Later, the probability of consequences was calculated. The Bowtie diagram was designed in the next step. Finally, the vulnerability zone was determined for each of the consequences using the PHAST software. Results: Considering the Bowtie's analysis, a total of 27 events including 21 base events, six mid events were determined. Furthermore, 15 minimal counts along with their event probabilities and importance were identified. In this regard, nine outcomes and scenarios were determined along with their probabilities. The widest human vulnerability zone was related to cloud and steam explosions. Conclusion: Leakage from the reservoir and connections, overflow, and PRVs are among the important defects of liquefied petroleum gas reservoirs. Considering the high probability of consequences and in order to prevent from the severity and damages of accidents, systems such as cooling system and fire stop system are required in the unit.


Author(s):  
Katarzyna Pawełczyk

Abstract Mitigation of climate change and adaptation to its effects manifested in increasingly extreme meteorological phenomena are one of the most important contemporary global challenges. In the face of new hazards, numerous measures are taken to adapt environmental components and ventures to climate change, such as the reclamation of degraded areas – recognized as a key adaptation and mitigation action. The success and the property of selecting these measures, including reclamation, requires a detailed recognition of the risk of occurrence of various hazards and of the severity of their consequences in a given area. The study assessed the risk of the climate change impacts on the post-mining area and based on its results an optimal method of reclamation of the “Brzeziny” gravel pit was proposed, aimed at the maximum adaptation of the area to the occurrence of potential climate events. The risk analysis was based on elements of the common risk assessment methodology (CRAM) and enriched with elements of the analytic hierarchy process method (AHP). Moreover, the event tree analysis (ETA) logic technique was used to assess the proposed adaptation measures at the reclamation stage.


2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (21) ◽  
pp. 4819-4825 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guang-Rong Li ◽  
Chun-He Li ◽  
Xiu-Hong Niu ◽  
Li-Ping Yang

Author(s):  
Jingjing Pei ◽  
Guantao Wang

The Bayesian network method is introduced into the process of fire risk quantitative assessment. The event tree model is established, and the Bayesian network model is transformed from the event tree model based on the typical fire scenarios in high-rise space. A Bayesian fire risk assessment algorithm for high-rise buildings based on mutual information reliability is proposed. Bayesian network is modified considering the influence of uncertainties. Finally, the modified Bayesian network model is used to calculate the probability of fire developing to different stages, and the estimated value of property loss is used to express the severity of the accident and calculate the fire risk value. The results show that the existence of uncertainties has a significant impact on the results of risk assessment; the quantitative assessment method based on Bayesian network is better than the ETA method based on event tree analysis in dealing with uncertainties and is more suitable for high-rise space fire risk assessment.


2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Eftychia C. Marcoulaki

This work proposes a new methodology for the management of event tree information used in the quantitative risk assessment of complex systems. The size of event trees increases exponentially with the number of system components and the number of states that each component can be found in. Their reduction to a manageable set of events can facilitate risk quantification and safety optimization tasks. The proposed method launches a deductive exploitation of the event space, to generate reduced event trees for large multistate systems. The approach consists in the simultaneous treatment of large subsets of the tree, rather than focusing on the given single components of the system and getting trapped into guesses on their structural arrangement.


2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juris Maklakovs ◽  
Jevgēnijs Tereščenko ◽  
Vladimirs Šestakovs

Abstract In the field of security in transport distinguish risks related to flight safety and aviation security. Safety of flights is ensured through the reliability of aviation equipment and the qualification of the personnel who services and operates it, aviation security is a condition of protection from illegal interference in its activity. Risk management in civil aviation in the field of security is a relatively new direction of activity. Deep research in this area began only at the beginning of the XXI century. It is quite difficult to use the existing experience of risk management, accumulated in other spheres, as civil aviation has significant features. Various methods and schemes can be used to assess risks. The article discusses various options for predicting risks using the “event tree” and “risk factor tree” methods.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zlatko Zafirovski ◽  
Vasko Gacevski ◽  
Zoran Krakutovski ◽  
Slobodan Ognjenovic ◽  
Ivona Nedevska

The intense demand and construction of tunnels is accompanied by uncertainties. The reason for appearance of uncertainties are the complex solutions and conditions for these structures. Location and dimensions are becoming more challenging, and the construction is predicted in complexed geological conditions, leading to application of new approaches, methodologies and technologies by the engineers. Most of the uncertainties and unwanted events in tunnelling occur in the construction phase, which generally leads to economic consequences and time losses. For easier handling of the uncertainties, they should be anticipated and studied within a separate part of each project. One of the newer approaches to dealing with uncertainties is hazard and risk assessment and defining ways to deal with them i.e. management. Hazards and risks can be analysed qualitatively and quantitatively. The quantitative analysis, examines the causes and consequences in more detail way and gives explanation of the dependencies. With the quantitative approach, a more valuable information for decision-making can be provided. There are various models and methods used for the quantification of hazards and risks. This paper presents a methodology in which the fault tree analysis and event tree analysis are used in combination to obtain quantitative results. The fault tree analysis is used for assessment of various hazards and the different ways and reasons that cause them. The event tree analysis is a method for assessing the possible scenarios, which follow after a certain hazard i.e. the consequences that may occur in the project. These trees represent graphic models combined with a mathematical (probabilistic) model, which give the probability of occurrence of the risks.


2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (6) ◽  
pp. 643-666 ◽  
Author(s):  
A.V. Glushchenko ◽  
E.N. Samedova ◽  
V.A. Temnikov

Subject. This article deals with the issues of financial risk assessment and management of economic entities. It also considers the application and implementation of risk assessment techniques by small and medium-sized enterprises. Objectives. The article aims to develop applied aspects of the original methodology of stepwise assessment of a company's total financial risk using mild conditions of software maintenance. Methods. For the study, we used the methods of SWOT and scenario analyses, scoring, expert assessment, index numbers and ratio analysis methods, and the tabular, graphical, financial risk map, and event tree techniques. Results. Using the SME subject as a case study, the article reveals the applied aspects of the implementation of the total financial risk assessment methodology steps. By analyzing the performance and operating conditions of the company, it identifies the main risk components of financial risk, assesses the probability and cost of losses from their implementation, and determines risk indices and total financial risk. The article presents certain proposals for the financial recovery of the organization on the basis of internal changes and standards of indicators that ensure financial stability. A subsequent assessment of the effectiveness of the proposed measures shows the positive dynamics of the forecast financial indicators. Conclusions. Providing insight into the original methodology use at SMEs helps assess the potential for its practical application using relatively moderate data volumes and no specialized software.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
RAFAE ANTONIO BRISEÑO-RAMIRO ◽  
VÍCTOR HUGO ALCOCER-YAMANAKA ◽  
ADRIÁN PEDROZO-ACUÑA ◽  
JOSÉ AGUSTIN BREÑA-NARANJO ◽  
RAMÓN DOMÍNGUEZ-MORA

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document