Cluster Analysis for Evaluating Trading Strategies

In this article, we introduce a new methodology to empirically identify the primary strategies used by a trader using only post-trade fill data. To do this, we apply a well-established statistical clustering technique called k-means to a sample of progress charts, representing the portion of the order completed by each point in the day as a measure of a trade’s aggressiveness. Our methodology identifies the primary strategies used by a trader and determines which strategy the trader used for each order in the sample. Having identified the strategy used for each order, trading cost analysis can be performed by strategy. We also discuss ways to exploit this technique to characterize trader behavior, assess trader performance, and suggest the appropriate benchmarks for each distinct trading strategy.

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 363-369 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nguyen Hoang Hung

Some studies published recently (Dejan Eric, 2009; R. Rosillo, 2013; Terence Tai-Leung Chong, 2008; Ülkü and Prodan, 2013) uncover that moving average convergence divergence (MACD) trading rules have predictive ability in many countries. The MACD trading strategies applied by these papers to execute the trading signals are various. This study analyzes the performance of a MACD trading strategy (MACD-4 in the current study), which is applied popularly by practitioners, but was not tested by prior academicians. Furthermore, the author compares the performance of each of the strategies on a group of markets to identify the best one. Before considering the costs, the author finds that the MACD-4 trading strategy has predictive ability. The best performance is MACD strategy applied by Terence Tai-Leung Chong (2008). This strategy is also the most effective one if it is applied in a high trading cost environmentm because the numbers of trades created are the lowest. Especially, the strategy applied by R. Rosillo (2013) is unpredictable in the selected samples


Our paper on Cluster Analysis was inspired by our need to group client data by trading strategy, when the data we were provided did not contain any information on trading strategy whatsoever. We ended up relying on a well-known statistical technique, k-means, which surprisingly had not been used widely in trading applications. At the time, non-quant traders were still reluctant to use quantitative techniques, especially black box applications like k-means. Fortunately, a lot has changed since that time, as quants are now using much more sophisticated techniques, like deep learning. And even more important, non-quant traders and business leaders have become much more accepting of such techniques, making it easier for such advanced techniques to be incorporated into trading applications.


2003 ◽  
Vol 2003 (7) ◽  
pp. 8-12,22-25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marie S. Konstance
Keyword(s):  

The proposed research work aims to perform the cluster analysis in the field of Precision Agriculture. The k-means technique is implemented to cluster the agriculture data. Selecting K value plays a major role in k-mean algorithm. Different techniques are used to identify the number of cluster value (k-value). Identification of suitable initial centroid has an important role in k-means algorithm. In general it will be selected randomly. In the proposed work to get the stability in the result Hybrid K-Mean clustering is used to identify the initial centroids. Since initial cluster centers are well defined Hybrid K-Means acts as a stable clustering technique.


Author(s):  
Loránd Lehel Tóth ◽  
Raymond Eliza Ivan Pardede ◽  
György András Jeney ◽  
Ferenc Kovács ◽  
Gábor Hosszú

This chapter presents a method to determine the actual version of a script used in constructing of a script relic from unknown origin. The glyphs belong to graphemes as models are realized in the relics as symbols. Some group of glyphs may transform their shape (shapeshifting) through time which produces various versions of scripts that use different glyphs to express the same grapheme. These glyph variants can be identified from extant relics, mainly from historical abecedaries that are used as references. Our algorithm can determine whether or not an abecedary is related to the symbols of a relic from unknown origin by means of the canonical decomposition of the glyphs and symbols. From there an aggregated value called fingerprint is created and it is unique for each relic. The fingerprints then are evaluated by clustering technique using various metrics. As the result of performing comparative evaluations the Minkowski metric provides the most interpretable clustering structure. The results of the evaluations, conclusions, and future work are also presented.


2019 ◽  
Vol 67 ◽  
pp. 06001 ◽  
Author(s):  
George Abuselidze ◽  
Olga Mohylevska ◽  
Nina Merezhko ◽  
Nadiia Reznik ◽  
Anna Slobodianyk

The article reveals the essence and features of the development of the stock market in Ukraine. It was established that the vigorous activity of countries in the world financial markets means that they also face a risk of global financial turmoil (the so-called “domino effect”). It is determined that the impact of global financial instability on the country depends on the openness of its economy that will lead to significant external “shocks”. The possibility of providing effective influence on domestic stock market activity with taking into account the changing world situation, development of perfect trading strategies for each participant is substantiated. The conducted analysis of the world market conditions of stock markets in recent years has made it possible to assess the real risks for new participants in the stock market and become the basis for the development of an appropriate effective trading strategy. The practical significance of the results is that they allow for a measurable approach to assessing the existing risk when choosing one or another trading strategy to move to the world stock market.


Complexity ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Taewook Kim ◽  
Ha Young Kim

Many researchers have tried to optimize pairs trading as the numbers of opportunities for arbitrage profit have gradually decreased. Pairs trading is a market-neutral strategy; it profits if the given condition is satisfied within a given trading window, and if not, there is a risk of loss. In this study, we propose an optimized pairs-trading strategy using deep reinforcement learning—particularly with the deep Q-network—utilizing various trading and stop-loss boundaries. More specifically, if spreads hit trading thresholds and reverse to the mean, the agent receives a positive reward. However, if spreads hit stop-loss thresholds or fail to reverse to the mean after hitting the trading thresholds, the agent receives a negative reward. The agent is trained to select the optimum level of discretized trading and stop-loss boundaries given a spread to maximize the expected sum of discounted future profits. Pairs are selected from stocks on the S&P 500 Index using a cointegration test. We compared our proposed method with traditional pairs-trading strategies which use constant trading and stop-loss boundaries. We find that our proposed model is trained well and outperforms traditional pairs-trading strategies.


2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 573-591
Author(s):  
Kangjianan Xie

AbstractThis paper investigates the so-called leakage effect of trading strategies generated functionally from rank-dependent portfolio generating functions. This effect measures the loss in wealth of trading strategies due to renewing the portfolio constituent stocks. Theoretically, the leakage effect of a trading strategy is expressed explicitly by a finite-variation term. The computation of the leakage is different from what previous research has suggested. The method to estimate leakage in discrete time is then introduced with some practical considerations. An empirical example illustrates the leakage of the corresponding trading strategies under different constituent list sizes.


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