scholarly journals A stochastic approach to model housing markets: The US housing market case

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 481-492
Author(s):  
Bilgi Yilmaz ◽  
◽  
A. Sevtap Selcuk-Kestel
2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amandeep Singh ◽  
Amrit Nanda ◽  
Charan Singh
Keyword(s):  

Author(s):  
Noemi Schmitt ◽  
Frank Westerhoff

AbstractWe propose a novel housing market model to explore the effectiveness of rent control. Our model reveals that the expectation formation and learning behavior of boundedly rational homebuyers, switching between extrapolative and regressive expectation rules subject to their past forecasting accuracy, may create endogenous housing market dynamics. We show that policymakers may use rent control to reduce the rent level, although such policies may have undesirable effects on the house price and the housing stock. However, we are also able to prove that well-designed rent control may help policymakers to stabilize housing market dynamics, even without creating housing market distortions.


2014 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hao Meng ◽  
Wen-Jie Xie ◽  
Zhi-Qiang Jiang ◽  
Boris Podobnik ◽  
Wei-Xing Zhou ◽  
...  

1978 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 247-266 ◽  
Author(s):  
J W Byler ◽  
S Gale

A conception of the housing market as a lagged, dynamic matching process is presented as an alternative to the conventional microeconomic formulation. Various components of changes in occupancy patterns are identified, in a general multidimensional accounting framework, as a means for the structuring of observations of household and dwelling-unit characteristics of urban populations. Parameters for several stochastic models of housing-market phenomena are derived from the account-based representation. Finally, potential planning applications of these accounting frameworks are explored together with conditions for their adoption.


Urban Studies ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 56 (2) ◽  
pp. 434-451 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junia Howell

Research in the USA provides evidence that neighbourhood conditions affect intergenerational mobility. However, what remains unclear is the extent to which the US context is unique in producing this influence. To examine this question, the present study directly compares neighbourhood effects on intergenerational mobility in the USA versus those in Germany – a country whose housing market and social welfare policies differ significantly from those in the USA. Results provide a blueprint for conducting cross-national neighbourhood effects studies and illuminate how the nature and severity of neighbourhood effects are nationally specific. These findings underscore the importance of considering how broader political contexts shape neighbourhood effects on intergenerational mobility – a consideration that has implications for proposed policy interventions.


2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 632-647 ◽  
Author(s):  
William C. Baer

Purpose This paper aims to relate early history of housing conceptualizations and market analysis in the Anglosphere (Britain, the USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand). Historians are ignorant of them but clear market analyses had early beginnings in every urban society for developing and accommodating growing populations. Design/methodology/approach Historiography. Findings Aspects of market analysis, especially appraisal and rudimentary approaches to the housing market in the Anglosphere, can be traced back to ancient Rome, housing market conceptualizations to Dr Nicholas Barbon and seventeenth-century London’s first population and housing boom and market analysis techniques in the USA at its founding, when Charles-Maurice de Talleyrand Perigor was the first to refine them and write them up in 1794-1796. The US next made major advances in the 1930s. The overall trend has been from inferred analyses to fundamental (derived) analyses, emphasizing “quantifiable data.” Practical implications This paper elicits researcher’s professional awareness that each nation has an implicit history of its early development practices and techniques. Originality/value The time frame of most housing market analysts is the recent past, the present and the future. But how enduring are their concerns? Do operational values in a housing market reflect historical epochs, or are there some universalities? Furthermore, most urban historians are ignorant of urban market dynamics. It does not occur to them that some of the dynamics that analysts attempt to capture today might always have been inherent in the urban built environment, regardless of era or urbanized part of the globe under consideration.


2019 ◽  
Vol 57 (2) ◽  
pp. 418-431 ◽  
Author(s):  
Virgilija Vasiliene-Vasiliauskiene ◽  
Aidas Vasilis Vasiliauskas ◽  
Rišard Golembovskij ◽  
Ieva Meidute-Kavaliauskiene ◽  
Edmundas Kazimieras Zavadskas ◽  
...  

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to develop a better understanding of how transportation system factors affect city housing markets. The goal was to show that identifying these factors alone is not enough without also examining their effects and variations according to the housing location. Design/methodology/approach Transportation system factors were identified by conducting a thorough literature review. The factors’ relevance was tested using a quantitative methodology and a sample of 317 Vilnius residents. This city was next divided into three zones, and data collected from 18 real estate experts was subjected to qualitative analysis. The analytic hierarchy process was then applied to identify transportation system factors’ level of impact and dynamics by the housing location. Findings The results show that the factors affect the housing market in question but that these effects vary by the housing location and the most critical factors differ for each city zone. Research limitations/implications Only data on Vilnius were used. Further research is needed to compare transportation factors’ dynamics in multiple cities. Practical implications Priorities in transportation system improvements should be assessed to facilitate sustainable urban development and enhance the residents’ quality of life. Housing market regulations can only be successful if investment in transportation systems is allocated purposefully and coherently. Originality/value This research went beyond identifying transportation system factors by employing a broad, systematic approach to clarifying potential options for regulating housing markets through transportation system projects.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lu Yang ◽  
Nannan Yuan ◽  
Shichao Hu

PurposeTo explore the state of this conditional Granger causality when other cities are not factors, we investigate housing market networks in China's major cities by using a combination of conditional Granger causality and network analysis.Design/methodology/approachAlthough housing market networks have been well discussed for different countries, the question of housing market networks in China's major cities based on the conditional causality perspective has yet to be answered.FindingsWe discover that second-tier cities are more influential than first-tier cities. Although the connectivity of the primary housing market is more complex than the diversified connectivity observed in the secondary housing market, both markets are scale-free networks that exhibit high stability. Moreover, we reveal that geographic conditions and economic development jointly determine the housing market's modular hierarchical structure. Our results provide meaningful information for both Chinese policymakers and investors.Originality/valueBy excluding the influence of other cities, our conditional Granger causality identifies the true casual relation between cities' housing markets. Moreover, it is the first paper to consider the primary housing market and secondary housing market separately. Specifically, Chinese prefer new house rather than second-hand house from both speculative and self-housing. Generally speaking, the new house price is lower than the second-hand house price since the new house is off-plan property. Therefore, understanding the difference between primary and secondary housing markets will provide useful information for both policymakers and speculators.


2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 289-301
Author(s):  
Jan R. Kim ◽  
Gieyoung Lim

The steep rise in German house prices in recent years raises the question of whether a speculative bubble has already emerged. Using a modified present-value model, we estimate the size of speculative house price bubbles in the German housing market. We do not find evidence for positive bubble accumulation in recent years, and interpret the current bullish run as reflecting the correction of house prices that have been undervalued for more than 10 years. With house prices close to their fair values as of 2018:Q1, our answer to the question is, ‘Not yet, but it is likely soon’.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document