Cognitive Biases in Decision Making in Post-Bureaucratic Organizations

2017 ◽  
pp. 358-382
Author(s):  
Marie-Therese Claes ◽  
Thibault Jacquemin
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Behavioral Economics ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Rational Choice Theory ◽  
Choice Theory ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Rational Decision ◽  
Bureaucratic Organization ◽  
System 2 ◽  
System 1

In today's post-bureaucratic organization, where decision-making is decentralized, most managers are confronted with highly complex situations where time-constraint and availability of information makes the decision-making process essential. Studies show that a great amount of decisions are not taken after a rational decision-making process but rather rely on instinct, emotion or quickly processed information. After briefly describing the journey of thoughts from Rational Choice Theory to the emergence of Behavioral Economics, this chapter will elaborate on the mechanisms that are at play in decision-making in an attempt to understand the root causes of cognitive biases, using the theory of Kahneman's (2011) System 1 and System 2. It will discuss the linkage between the complexity of decision-making and post-bureaucratic organization.

The Power of Sequence

2021 ◽  
pp. 309-326
Author(s):  
Christopher Brett Jaeger ◽  
Jennifer S. Trueblood
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Rational Choice ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Rational Choice Theory ◽  
Choice Theory ◽  
Criminal Case ◽  
Choice Architecture ◽  
Intellectual Origins ◽  
Rational Decisions

Researchers have documented numerous cognitive biases that are difficult to reconcile with rational choice theory. But is there a more general set of decision-making rules that might account for these cognitive biases and ‘rational’ decisions alike? Psychologists in search of such rules have developed a theory of quantum decision making. This chapter introduces quantum decision making to a legal audience, explains its intellectual origins, and identifies some contexts in which it provides useful tools for legal theorists. Using the example of a juror evaluating a criminal case, the chapter illustrates how quantum decision making explains and predicts phenomena that are difficult to reconcile with other theories of choice. More generally, quantum decision making highlights the importance of sequence in shaping judgments and decisions—and thus, its importance in law’s choice architecture.

The Electronic Hive Mind and Cybersecurity

2019 ◽  
pp. 206-262 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shalin Hai-Jew
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Mass Scale ◽  
Data Sources ◽  
Micro Scale ◽  
Weakest Link ◽  
System 2 ◽  
Research Questions ◽  
System 1 ◽  
Scale Data

If people are the “weakest link” in cybersecurity because of their psychological make-up and hardwiring—their socialized desire to trust and cooperate with others, their cognitive biases and misperceptions, their preferences for convenience, their general going with System 1 inattention instead of System 2 attention and thinking—this begs the question of whether the same micro-scale cognitive limits found in individual users are also present on a mass scale. After all, there have been discovered problematic unthinking leanings in group decision making: obedience to authority, bystander effects, groupthink, and the Abilene paradox, among others. Using a range of often mass-scale data sources and data analytics tools, research questions were asked around three areas: (1) the level of sophistication of the cybersecurity electronic hive mind towards cybersecurity issues, (2) the gap between the non-expert members and the expert members in the hive mind, and (3) whether the extant hive mind was more reflective of mob unthinkingness or deliberation and wisdom.

Revisiting the role of process incentives as a determinant of university students’ protest

2012 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 225-253
Author(s):  
Elias Dinas ◽  
Kostas Gemenis
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Collective Action ◽  
Rational Choice ◽  
Rational Choice Theory ◽  
Choice Theory ◽  
Choice Model ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Original Data ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
The Public

Drawing on the original data collected during a period of university student protest in Greece, we explore whether the expected gains from the act of protesting itself influence an individual's decision to participate in collective action. More particularly, we investigate the extent to which the process incentives qualify the weight individuals attach to the primary elements of the original cost–benefit equation of rational choice theory as well as other considerations in their decision-making process. Our findings point out that the magnitude of the effect of the process incentives is very strong and its inclusion in a rational choice model improves our understanding of students’ participation in protest activities. Turning to indirect effects, we show that process incentives behave as a first stage precondition for the students’ decision to participate in collective action. In the absence of perceived benefits associated with the process of protesting, the importance of attaining the public good becomes much less important in their decision-making process.

Multiple Interpretations of Rationality in Offender Decision Making

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henk Elffers
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Rational Choice ◽  
Rational Choice Theory ◽  
Choice Theory ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Difference Of Opinion ◽  
Choice Approach

It is argued that, contrary to some criticisms, rational choice theory of criminal decision making has and should have a clear place for emotions as part of the decision-making process, as it had in classical treatises of Coornhert, Smith, and Bentham, as well as in modern formulations such as Elster’s. It appears that much disagreement is a consequence of a hidden difference of opinion on what the concept of “rational choice” contains or should contain and how it may or may not be used in explaining the occurrence of crime. This chapter provides clarity on this issue by discussing various elements that may have generated disagreement about content and scope of the rational choice approach. The chapter focuses on what is, could, or should be the contribution of rational choice theory to criminal choice theory.

scholarly journals Altruism, Noise, and the Paradox of Voter Turnout: An Experimental Study

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-22
Author(s):  
Sarah A. Tulman
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Experimental Study ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Laboratory Experiments ◽  
Rational Choice Theory ◽  
Choice Theory ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Participation Rates ◽  
Quantal Response ◽  
Voting Participation

This paper addresses the paradox of voter turnout, wherein observed voting participation rates are far greater than what rational choice theory would predict. Voters face multiple voting choices, stochastic voting costs, and candidates offering different economic platforms. A combination of two approaches attempts to resolve this paradox: quantal response equilibrium (QRE) analysis, which introduces noise into the decision-making process, and the possibility of ethical (altruism-motivated) voting. A series of laboratory experiments empirically tests the predictions of the resulting model. Participants in the experiments are also given opportunities for communicating online with their immediate neighbors, in order to enhance the chances that subjects would realize the possibility of ethical voting. The results show that ethical voting occurs but gains momentum only in the presence of a vocal advocate and even then it mostly dissipated by the second half of the session. The QRE-based model was able to explain some but not all of the overvoting that was observed, relative to the Nash equilibrium prediction. There is evidence to suggest that communication via the chat feature generated some of the voting and also some of the ethical voting.

scholarly journals The Psychological Puzzle: Contributing Factors to the Top-Down Politicization of Intelligence

Elements ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca Moretti
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Intelligence Community ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Symbiotic Relationship ◽  
Rational Decision ◽  
Contributing Factors ◽  
Political Leaders ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Rational Decision Making

Policy and intelligence are intimately intertwined. Policymakers need intelligence to make decisions, while the intelligence community derives significance from its ability to provide policy makers with reliable information. In this symbiotic relationship, it is healthy for intelligence consumers to at times check and direct the work of intelligence producers. However, if undertaken maliciously, this checking mechanism manifests as top-down politicization. Here, leaders use intelligence post facto to legitimize their policies instead of using it to guide them, reversing the rational decision-making process. Certain factors may compel leaders to manipulate intelligence to reflect their policy preferences. This essay demonstrates how three distinct processes of top-down politicization can arise from ambiguous evidence, the psychology of intelligence consumers, and the nature of the leaders’ political positions and responsibilities. It then proceeds to argue that political leaders’ psychology is the most potent source of top-down politicization.

Guardian Angels

2020 ◽  
pp. 267-292
Author(s):  
Dominic D. P. Johnson
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
World War Ii ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Rational Choice Theory ◽  
Choice Theory ◽  
The United States ◽  
Evolutionary Perspective ◽  
World War ◽  
The Public ◽  
Effective Strategies

This chapter presents a summary of the findings and explores the implications of the new evolutionary perspective on cognitive biases for international relations. It concludes that the cognitive biases are adaptive in a way that strategic instincts help individuals, state leaders, and nations achieve their goals. It also reviews effective strategies that often differ radically from those predicted by conventional paradigms, such as the rational choice theory. The chapter offers novel interpretations of historical events, especially the American Revolution, the British appeasement of Hitler in the 1930s, and the United States' Pacific campaign in World War II. It examines counterintuitive strategies for leaders and policymakers to exploit strategic instincts among themselves, the public, and other states.

Behavioral Studies

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eyal Zamir ◽  
Doron Teichman
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Professional Training ◽  
Rational Choice Theory ◽  
Choice Theory ◽  
Law And Economics ◽  
Judgment And Decision Making ◽  
Moral Judgments ◽  
Training Experience ◽  
Behavioral Ethics ◽  
Behavioral Studies

Against the background of rational choice theory, this chapter provides an overview of the behavioral sub-disciplines informing behavioral law and economics—including judgment and decision-making studies, parts of social psychology, moral psychology, experimental game theory, and behavioral ethics. The chapter discusses deviations from cognitive and motivational rationality, including studies of people’s moral judgments. It begins with probability assessments and related issues. It critically describes phenomena related to prospect theory, phenomena associated with motivated reasoning and egocentrism, and those related to reference-dependence. It also summarizes studies of bounded willpower. Some attention is given to studies that show that most people do not share the consequentialist outlook that prioritizes the maximization of human welfare over all other values. Finally, the chapter discusses several issues that cut across various phenomena: individual differences in judgment and decision-making; the significance of professional training, experience, and expertise; deciding for others; group decision-making; cultural differences; and debiasing.

Reconciling Emotion and Rational Choice: Negativistic Auto Theft, Consequence Irrelevance, and the Seduction of Destruction

2019 ◽  
Vol 56 (6) ◽  
pp. 783-815
Author(s):  
Bruce A. Jacobs ◽  
Michael Cherbonneau
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Rational Choice ◽  
Rational Choice Theory ◽  
Choice Theory ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Auto Theft ◽  
Choice Decision ◽  
Decision Making Models ◽  
Depth Interviews

Objectives: We explore negativism in the context of auto theft and examine its broader phenomenological significance for Rational Choice Theory. Methods: Data were drawn from qualitative, in-depth interviews with 35 active auto thieves operating out of a large Midwestern U.S. city. Results: Negativistic offending is malicious, spiteful, and/or destructive conduct whose purpose is typically more hedonic (i.e., short-term gratification) than instrumental (i.e., resource-generating) or normative (i.e., moralistic). It is made possible by the notion of ownership without responsibility: Offenders controlled a vehicle that was not theirs, promoting consequence irrelevance which in turn unleashed reckless conduct. Conclusions: Consequence irrelevance clarifies negativism’s logic and permits linkage between affect-based and rational choice decision-making models.

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