Time-Bounded Decision Making

2020 ◽  
pp. 187-208
Author(s):  
Ali Intezari ◽  
David J. Pauleen
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Knowledge Management ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future

How to manage uncertain and unpredictable situations has been a major challenge facing managers and academics for decades. The development of practice and theory in knowledge management has been one important response. This chapter, however, argues that knowledge and knowledge management may not be sufficient when dealing with emergent and unforeseen situations as knowledge tends to be past-oriented in terms of its formative components, while emergent situations are future-oriented, which may or may not be rooted in the past. Therefore, authors explore this past-present-future conundrum by explaining how mere reliance on the past may restrict organizations' ability to deal with emergent situations in the future. Finally, the role of innovation and wisdom will be introduced as a bridge connecting current past-oriented knowledge to unknown and unpredictable future-oriented events.

The Past-Present-Future Conundrum

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Intezari ◽  
David J. Pauleen
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Knowledge Management ◽  
Information Systems ◽  
Social Environments ◽  
Business Decisions ◽  
Integrative Framework ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future

This paper extends the Knowledge Management-discipline's understanding of knowledge. By including the concept of time, this extended conceptualization of knowledge could make knowledge management and decision making more responsive to the complexity found in organizational and social environments. The authors suggest that knowledge tends to be past-oriented in terms of its formative components, while emergent situations are future-oriented, which may or may not have roots in the past. In this article, the authors explore this past-present-future conundrum by explaining how reliance on the past may restrict an organization's ability to deal with emergent situations in the future. The role of wisdom will be introduced as a bridge connecting current past-oriented knowledge to unknown and unpredictable future-oriented events. The paper concludes that handling complex business decisions requires wisdom and that knowledge management and information systems must be designed and developed to support decisions by providing an integrative framework of analytics and insight.

The Future of Administrative Justice

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Adler
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
The Past ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Future ◽  
Administrative Review ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Administrative Justice

This chapter considers the future of administrative justice. Using the United Kingdom as a case study, it argues that the rise and fall of administrative justice can be likened to the swing of a pendulum. It considers first-instance decision-making, the role of outsourcing, the expanding role of administrative review and its implications for administrative justice, the decline of tribunals and the rise of ombudsmen, the effectiveness of oversight arrangements, and the impact of digitalisation. It concludes that the future of administrative justice in the United Kingdom is unlikely to involve a replay of anything that has been encountered in the past.

THE ROLE OF THAI PEOPLE IN VIETNAM – LAO TRADITIONAL FRIENDSHIP

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pham Van Loi
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Group ◽  
Border Crossing ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future ◽  
Thai People ◽  
Northwest Region ◽  
Coherent Relationship ◽  
National Borders

Vietnam - Laos has more than 2,000 km of common national borders. The coherent relationship between the two nations and the inhabitants of the two countries has been formed and fostered in history and especially developed over the past 7 decades. The Thai ethnic group in Vietnam has over one million people, residing permanently, concentrated in the Northwest region, the region consists of 8 provinces, of which 4 provinces have the Vietnam-Laos border crossing. This paper focuses on clarifying the practical basis for the Thai people to play a role in the traditional Vietnam-Laos friendship and propose some solutions to promote the role of Thai in maintaining, developing the traditional friendship between Vietnam and Laos, now and in the future.

A corpus-based investigation of techno-optimism and propositional certainty in the National Intelligence Council’s ‘Future Global Trends Reports’ (2010–2035)

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-57
Author(s):  
Jamie McKeown
Keyword(s):  
Global Trends ◽  
Future Role ◽  
Ideological Bias ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Global Peace ◽  
Discursive Representations

This article reports the findings from a study of discursive representations of the future role of technology in the work of the US National Intelligence Council (NIC). Specifically, it investigates the interplay of ‘techno-optimism’ (a form of ideological bias) and propositional certainty in the NIC’s ‘Future Global Trends Reports’. In doing so, it answers the following questions: To what extent was techno-optimism present in the discourse? What level of propositional certainty was expressed in the discourse? How did the discourse deal with the inherent uncertainty of the future? Overall, the discourse was pronouncedly techno-optimist in its stance towards the future role of technology: high-technological solutions were portrayed as solving a host of problems, despite the readily available presence of low-technology or no-technology solutions. In all, 75.1% of the representations were presented as future categorical certainties, meaning the future was predominantly presented as a known and closed inevitability. The discourse dealt with the inherent uncertainty of the subject matter, that is, the future, by projecting the past and present into the future. This was particularly the case in relation to the idea of technological military dominance as a guarantee of global peace, and the role of technology as an inevitable force free from societal censorship.

Decision making: How the past guides the future in frontal cortex

2021 ◽  
Vol 31 (6) ◽  
pp. R303-R306
Author(s):  
Bharath Chandra Talluri ◽  
Anke Braun ◽  
T.H. Donner
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Frontal Cortex ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future

scholarly journals Where Does the World Historian Write From? Objectivity, Moral Conscience and the Past and Present of Imperialism

2011 ◽  
Vol 46 (3) ◽  
pp. 671-685 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Drayton
Keyword(s):  
Iraq War ◽  
Imperial History ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Past ◽  
Academic Subject ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
Ethical Responsibilities

The contemporary historian, as she or he speaks to the public about the origins and meanings of the present, has important ethical responsibilities. ‘Imperial’ historians, in particular, shape how politicians and the public imagine the future of the world. This article examines how British imperial history, as it emerged as an academic subject since about 1900, often lent ideological support to imperialism, while more generally it suppressed or avoided the role of violence and terror in the making and keeping of the Empire. It suggests that after 2001, and during the Iraq War, in particular, a new Whig historiography sought to retail a flattering narrative of the British Empire’s past, and concludes with a call for a post-patriotic imperial history which is sceptical of power and speaks for those on the underside of global processes.

scholarly journals Cuing both positive and negative episodic foresight reduces delay discounting but does not affect risk-taking

2019 ◽  
Vol 72 (8) ◽  
pp. 1998-2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Bulley ◽  
Beyon Miloyan ◽  
Gillian V Pepper ◽  
Matthew J Gullo ◽  
Julie D Henry ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Delay Discounting ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Balloon Analogue Risk Task ◽  
Episodic Simulation ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Events ◽  
Monetary Choice Questionnaire

Humans frequently create mental models of the future, allowing outcomes to be inferred in advance of their occurrence. Recent evidence suggests that imagining positive future events reduces delay discounting (the devaluation of reward with time until its receipt), while imagining negative future events may increase it. Here, using a sample of 297 participants, we experimentally assess the effects of cued episodic simulation of positive and negative future scenarios on decision-making in the context of both delay discounting (monetary choice questionnaire) and risk-taking (balloon-analogue risk task). Participants discounted the future less when cued to imagine positive and negative future scenarios than they did when cued to engage in control neutral imagery. There were no effects of experimental condition on risk-taking. Thus, although these results replicate previous findings suggesting episodic future simulation can reduce delay discounting, they indicate that this effect is not dependent on the valence of the thoughts, and does not generalise to all other forms of “impulsive” decision-making. We discuss various interpretations of these results, and suggest avenues for further research on the role of prospection in decision-making.

scholarly journals Mnemicity vs. Temporality: Distinguishing between components of episodic representations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johannes Mahr
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Orientation ◽  
Human Beings ◽  
The Past ◽  
Episodic Simulation ◽  
The Future ◽  
Event Simulations

Human beings regularly 'mentally travel' to past and future times in memory and imagination. In theory, whether an event is remembered or imagined (its ‘mnemicity’) underspecifies whether it is oriented towards the past or the future (its ‘temporality’). However, it remains unclear to what extent the temporal orientation of such episodic simulations is cognitively represented separately from their status as memories or imagination. To address this question, we investigated whether episodic simulations are more easily distinguishable in memory by virtue of their temporal orientation or their mnemicity. In three experiments (N = 360), participants were asked to generate and later recall events differing along the lines of temporal orientation (past/future) and mnemicity (remembered/imagined). Across all of our experiments, we consistently found that participants were more likely to confuse in recall event simulations that shared the same temporal orientation rather than the same mnemicity. These results show that the temporal orientation of episodic representations can be cognitively represented separately from their mnemicity and have implications for debates about the role of temporality in episodic simulation.

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