Research for Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on Linearization Meteorological Factors

2014 ◽  
Vol 596 ◽  
pp. 700-703
Author(s):  
Shun Hua Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Factor Model ◽  
Meteorological Factors ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Meteorological Factor ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Power Load ◽  
Short Term Load Forecasting ◽  
Electricity Load ◽  
Heating Load ◽  
The Impact

With the development of economy in recent years, rapid growth of electricity demand, the cooling and heating load gets more and more big proportion of the total electricity load; the power load is influenced by meteorological factors which become more and more big. This topic will be based on short-term load forecasting in ANN (Artificial Neural Networks), conduct further research on the relationship between meteorological factors and power load, find the impact of the core meteorological factors of power load, and linear core meteorological factor model to establish the suitable for load forecasting based on ANN, make the forecasting to correctly reflect the meteorological conditions, improve the prediction accuracy of short-term load forecasting.

scholarly journals Short-term Load Forecasting Model Considering Meteorological Factors

2019 ◽  
Vol 118 ◽  
pp. 02050
Author(s):  
Xi Yunhua ◽  
Zhu Haojun ◽  
Dong Nan
Keyword(s):  
Decision Tree ◽  
Meteorological Factors ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Decision Tree Algorithm ◽  
Characteristic Analysis ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Tree Algorithm ◽  
Short Term Load Forecasting

Because of the limitation of basic data and processing methods, the traditional load characteristic analysis method can not achieve user-level refined prediction. This paper builds a user-level short-term load forecasting model based on algorithms such as decision trees and neural networks in big data technology. Firstly, based on the grey relational analysis method, the influence of meteorological factors on load characteristics is quantitatively analyzed. The key factors are selected as input vectors of decision tree algorithm. This paper builds a category label for each daily load curve after clustering the user’s historical load data. The decision tree algorithm is used to establish classification rules and classify the days to be predicted. Finally, Elman neural network is used to predict the short-term load of a user, and the validity of the model is verified.

A NOVEL APPROACH FOR SHORT-TERM LOAD FORECASTING USING SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINES

2004 ◽  
Vol 14 (05) ◽  
pp. 329-335 ◽  
Author(s):  
LIANG TIAN ◽  
AFZEL NOORE
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Feed Forward Neural Network ◽  
Modeling Approach ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Power Load ◽  
Short Term Load Forecasting ◽  
Network Approaches

A support vector machine (SVM) modeling approach for short-term load forecasting is proposed. The SVM learning scheme is applied to the power load data, forcing the network to learn the inherent internal temporal property of power load sequence. We also study the performance when other related input variables such as temperature and humidity are considered. The performance of our proposed SVM modeling approach has been tested and compared with feed-forward neural network and cosine radial basis function neural network approaches. Numerical results show that the SVM approach yields better generalization capability and lower prediction error compared to those neural network approaches.

scholarly journals Residential Short-Term Load Forecasting during Atypical Consumption Behavior

Energies ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 291
Author(s):  
Cristina Hora ◽  
Florin Ciprian Dan ◽  
Gabriel Bendea ◽  
Calin Secui
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Consumption Behavior ◽  
Best Response ◽  
Power Load ◽  
Short Term Load Forecasting ◽  
Residential Consumption ◽  
Forecasting Errors

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is a fundamental tool for power networks’ proper functionality. As large consumers need to provide their own STLF, the residential consumers are the ones that need to be monitored and forecasted by the power network. There is a huge bibliography on all types of residential load forecast in which researchers have struggled to reach smaller forecasting errors. Regarding atypical consumption, we could see few titles before the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) restrictions, and afterwards all titles referred to the case of COVID-19. The purpose of this study was to identify, among the most used STLF methods—linear regression (LR), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and artificial neural network (ANN)—the one that had the best response in atypical consumption behavior and to state the best action to be taken during atypical consumption behavior on the residential side. The original contribution of this paper regards the forecasting of loads that do not have reference historic data. As the most recent available scenario, we evaluated our forecast with respect to the database of consumption behavior altered by different COVID-19 pandemic restrictions and the cause and effect of the factors influencing residential consumption, both in urban and rural areas. To estimate and validate the results of the forecasts, multiyear hourly residential consumption databases were used. The main findings were related to the huge forecasting errors that were generated, three times higher, if the forecasting algorithm was not set up for atypical consumption. Among the forecasting algorithms deployed, the best results were generated by ANN, followed by ARIMA and LR. We concluded that the forecasting methods deployed retained their hierarchy and accuracy in forecasting error during atypical consumer behavior, similar to forecasting in normal conditions, if a trigger/alarm mechanism was in place and there was sufficient time to adapt/deploy the forecasting algorithm. All results are meant to be used as best practices during power load uncertainty and atypical consumption behavior.

scholarly journals Research on Regional Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Model and Case Analysis

Processes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 1617
Author(s):  
Kang Qian ◽  
Xinyi Wang ◽  
Yue Yuan
Keyword(s):  
Meteorological Factors ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Electric Load ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Power Load ◽  
Power Load Forecasting ◽  
Electric Load Forecasting

Integrated energy services will have multiple values and far-reaching significance in promoting energy transformation and serving “carbon peak and carbon neutralization”. In order to balance the supply and demand of power system in integrated energy, it is necessary to establish a scientific model for power load forecasting. Different algorithms for short-term electric load forecasting considering meteorological factors are presented in this paper. The correlation between electric load and meteorological factors is first analyzed. After the principal component analysis (PCA) of meteorological factors and autocorrelation analysis of the electric load, the daily load forecasting model is established by optimal support vector machine (OPT-SVM), Elman neural network (ENN), as well as their combinations through linear weighted average, geometric weighted average, and harmonic weighted average method, respectively. Based on the actual data of an industrial park of Nantong in China, the prediction performance in the four seasons with the different models is evaluated. The main contribution of this paper is to compare the effectiveness of different models for short-term electric load forecasting and to give a guideline to build the proper methods for load forecasting.

A Short-Term Load Forecasting Method of Warship Based on PSO-SVM Method

2011 ◽  
Vol 127 ◽  
pp. 569-574
Author(s):  
Dong Liang Li ◽  
Xiao Feng Zhang ◽  
Ming Zhong Qiao ◽  
Gang Cheng
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Particle Swarm Optimization ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Swarm Optimization ◽  
Power Load ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
Short Term Load Forecasting ◽  
Adaptive Pso

The power load characteristics of warship on a specific task was analyzed,and a task-based forecasting method for warship short-term load forecasting was presented. the new influencing factors of warship power load were used in modeling which is different with the land grid and civilian vessels grid. Theory of particle swarm optimization and Support vector machine was disscused first, and the method of particle swarm optimization was improved to have the ability of adaptive parameter optimization. and the method of support vector machine was improved by the adaptive PSO optimizational method. then a new adaptive short-term load forecasting model was established by the adaptive PSO-SVM method. finally Through simulation results show that the adaptive PSO-SVM method is highly feasible to predict with high accuracy and high generalization capability.

scholarly journals Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on Elastic Net Improved GMDH and Difference Degree Weighting Optimization

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (9) ◽  
pp. 1603 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Liu ◽  
Zhenhai Dou ◽  
Weiguo Wang ◽  
Yueyu Liu ◽  
Hao Zou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Complex Systems ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Elastic Net ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Group Method ◽  
Data Handling ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Variable Weight ◽  
Short Term Load Forecasting ◽  
The Impact

As objects of load prediction are becoming increasingly diversified and complicated, it is extremely important to improve the accuracy of load forecasting under complex systems. When using the group method of data handling (GMDH), it is easy for the load forecasting to suffer from overfitting and be unable to deal with multicollinearity under complex systems. To solve this problem, this paper proposes a GMDH algorithm based on elastic net regression, that is, group method of data handling based on elastic net (EN-GMDH), as a short-term load forecasting model. The algorithm uses an elastic net to compress and punish the coefficients of the Kolmogorov–Gabor (K–G) polynomial and select variables. Meanwhile, based on the difference degree of historical data, this paper carries out variable weight processing on the input data of load forecasting, so as to solve the impact brought by the abrupt change of load law. Ten characteristic variables, including meteorological factors, meteorological accumulation factors, and holiday factors, are taken as input variables. Then, EN-GMDH is used to establish the relationship between the characteristic variables and the load, and a short-term load forecasting model is established. The results demonstrate that, compared with other algorithms, the evaluation index of EN-GMDH is significantly better than that of the rest algorithm models in short-term load forecasting, and the accuracy of prediction is obviously improved.

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