Prediction and Analysis of Ecological Effects of Property Rights Reform in State-Owned Forest Based on GM (1, 1)

2011 ◽  
Vol 361-363 ◽  
pp. 1602-1605
Author(s):  
Wei Han ◽  
Wei Qiu ◽  
Hong Xing Deng ◽  
Ying Fan

This paper is base on the 5 pilot Board‘s management data from 2002 to 2010 when the property right reform of state-owned forest were carried out, use the characteristic that the gray model can solve the uncertainty relation of various factors within the system to predict the ecological effects of reform in the period 2011 to 2015. Model prediction accuracy is better, the results show that: the ecological evaluation of the reform--new forest area and tending forest area will decrease while survival rate will increase significantly in the future.

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
HARNITA HARNITA ◽  
H. Anwar ◽  
Pendais Hak

ABSTRAK: Tujuan utama dalam penelitian ini mengetahui  latar belakang pelaksanaan kegiatan Ritual dalam Tradisi Pertanian (Galu) pada Masyarakat Desa Bone Tondo Kecamatan Bone Kabupaten Muna, mendeskripsikan ritual-ritual apa saja yang dilakukan dalam pelaksanaan kegiatan ritual dalam Tradisi Pertanian (Galu) pada Masyarakat Desa Bone Tondo Kecamatan Bone Kabupaten Muna, mendeskripsikan proses kegiatan ritual dalam Tradisi Pertanian pada Masyarakat Desa Bone Tondo Kecamatan Bone Kabupaten Muna dan mendeskripsikan perubahan yang terjadi saat ini dalam proses Ritual dalam Tradisi Pertanian (Galu) pada Masyarakat Desa Bone Tondo Kecamatan Bone Kabupaten Muna. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah metode sejarah menurut Helius Sjamsuddin yang terdiri atas: (1) Heuristik (pengmpulan sumber), (2) Kritik sumber (verifikasi), (3) Historiografi (penulisan sejarah).Hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa: (1) Latar belakang pelaksanaan ritual dalam tradisi pertanian pada masyarakat Desa Bone Tondo adalah dalam bercocok tanam (degalu) masyarakat Desa Bone Tondo memiliki keyakinan bahwa hutan di Muna banyak dihuni oleh makhluk ghaib yang berpotensi mengganggu kehidupan masyarakat. Maka secara intensif masyarakat melakukan hubungan komunikasi dengan melalui upacara yang tradisional yang dimana harus dilakukan sebelum bercocok tanam. Dengan maksud mendapatkan keselamatan dalam kegiatan perladangan terhindar dari marabahaya serta hasil panen yang melimpah. Ritual dilakukan karena adanya pantangan dan larangan yang apabila jika tidak dipatuhi akan menimbulkan dampak negatif. (2) Ritual-Ritual yang dilakukan dalam Tradisi Pertanian (Galu) pada Masyarakat Desa Bone Tondo ritual pembukaan lahan kawasan hutan baru yaitu desolo. Ritual kaago-ago yang dilakukan saat lahan sudah bersih dan siap untuk ditanamkan, ritual dilakukan untuk memindahkan makhluk ghaib, permohonan dan sebagai rasa syukur. Ritual kasambuno wite (deghoti wite) dan ritual kafematai, (3) Proses pelaksanaan Ritual dalam Tradisi Pertanian (Galu) pada Masyarakat Desa Bone Tondo yaitu semua proses ritual dilakukan pada hari baik yang dipimpin oleh dukun (parika), menyiapkan alat dan bahan (sesajian) yang dibutuhkan tiap-tiap upacara ritual yang akan dilaksanakan. (4) Perubahan yang terjadi saat ini dalam proses pelaksanaan Ritual dalam Tradisi Pertanian (Galu) pada masyarakat Desa Bone Tondo, dapat dilihat pada ritual kaago-ago, dimana saat ini sabagian ritual tersebut tidak lagi dijalankan. Perubahan-perubahan lain adalah terkait dengan konsistensi ritual yang sebagian masih ada yang melakukan secara utuh namun ada juga yang hanya menjalankan 2 atau 3 ritual saja. Kata Kunci: latarbelakang, jenis, proses dan perubahan, galu ABSTRACT: The main objective in this study is to find out the background of the implementation of Ritual activities in the Agricultural Tradition (Galu) of the Bone Tondo Village Community, Bone District of Muna District, describing the rituals performed in the implementation of ritual activities in the Agricultural Tradition (Galu) of the Village Community Bone Tondo, Bone District, Muna Regency, describes the process of ritual activities in the Agricultural Tradition of the Bone Tondo Village Community, Bone District Muna District and describes the changes that occur currently in the Ritual process in the Agricultural Tradition (Galu) of the Bone Tondo Village Community, Bone District, Muna Regency. The method used in this study is the historical method according to Helius Sjamsuddin which consists of: (1) Heuristics (collection of sources), (2) Criticism of sources (verification), (3) Historiography (history writing). The results of the study show that: (1 ) The background of ritual implementation in the agricultural tradition of the Bone Tondo Village community is in farming (degalu). Bone Tondo Village community has the belief that the forests in Muna are inhabited by unseen creatures that have the potential to disrupt people's lives. So the community intensively communicates through traditional ceremonies which must be carried out before planting. With the intention of obtaining safety in farming activities to avoid danger and abundant harvests. The ritual is carried out because of restrictions and prohibitions which if not obeyed will cause a negative impact. (2) Rituals carried out in the Agricultural Tradition (Galu) of the Bone Tondo Village Community in the ritual of opening a new forest area, namely desolo. Kaago-ago rituals are carried out when the land is clean and ready to be planted, rituals are performed to remove supernatural beings, requests and as gratitude. Kasambuno wite rituals (deghoti wite) and kafematai rituals, (3) The process of implementing Rituals in the Agricultural Tradition (Galu) of the Bone Tondo Village Community, namely all ritual processes carried out on a good day led by a shaman (parika), preparing tools and materials (offerings) ) required each ritual ceremony that will be carried out. (4) Changes that occur at this time in the process of carrying out the Ritual in the Agricultural Tradition (Galu) of the Bone Tondo Village community, can be seen in the kaago-ago ritual, where at present the ritual portion is no longer carried out. Other changes are related to the consistency of the ritual, some of which still do the whole, but there are also those who only carry out 2 or 3 rituals. Keywords: Background, type, process and change, galu


Crop Science ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 57 (1) ◽  
pp. 444-453 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hussain Sharifi ◽  
Robert J. Hijmans ◽  
James E. Hill ◽  
Bruce A. Linquist

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-24
Author(s):  
Chen Wei ◽  
Yuanhang Chen

Summary Improved numerical efficiency in simulating wellbore gas-influx behaviors is essential for realizing real-time model-prediction-based gas-influx management in wells equipped with managed-pressure-drilling (MPD) systems. Currently, most solution algorithms for high-fidelitymultiphase-flow models are highly time consuming and are not suitable for real-time decision making and control. In the application of model-predictive controllers (MPCs), long calculation time can lead to large overshoots and low control efficiency. This paper presents a drift-flux-model (DFM)-based gas-influx simulator with a novel numerical scheme for improved computational efficiency. The solution algorithm to a Robertson problem as differential algebraic equations (DAEs) was used as the numerical scheme to solve the control equations of the DFM in this study. The numerical stability and computational efficiency of this numerical scheme and the widely used flux-splitting methods are compared and analyzed. Results show that the Robertson DAE problem approach significantly reduces the total number of arithmetic operations and the computational time compared with the hybrid advection-upstream-splitting method (AUSMV) while maintaining the same prediction accuracy. According to the “Big-O notation” analysis, the Robertson DAE approach shows a lower-order growth of computational complexity, proving its good potential in enhancing numerical efficiency, especially when handling simulations with larger scales. The validation of both the numerical schemes for the solution of the DFM was performed using measured data from a test well drilled with water-based mud (WBM). This study offers a novel numerical solution to the DFM that can significantly reduce the computational time required for gas-kick simulation while maintaining high prediction accuracy. This approach enables the application of high-fidelity two-phase-flow models in model-prediction-based decision making and automated influx management with MPD systems.


2012 ◽  
Vol 88 (06) ◽  
pp. 708-721 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Irfan Ashraf ◽  
Charles P.-A. Bourque ◽  
David A. MacLean ◽  
Thom Erdle ◽  
Fan-Rui Meng

Empirical growth and yield models developed from historical data are commonly used in developing long-term strategic forest management plans. Use of these models rests on an assumption that there will be no future change in the tree growing environment. However, major impacts on forest growing conditions are expected to occur with climate change. As a result, there is a pressing need for tools capable of incorporating outcomes of climate change in their predictions of forest growth and yield. Process-based models have this capability and may, therefore, help to satisfy this requirement. In this paper, we evaluate the suitability of an ecological, individual-tree-based model (JABOWA-3) in generating forest growth and yield projections for diverse forest conditions across Nova Scotia, Canada. Model prediction accuracy was analyzed statistically by comparing modelled with observed basal area and merchantable volume changes for 35 permanent sample plots (PSPs) measured over periods of at least 25 years. Generally, modelled basal area and merchantable volume agreed fairly well with observed data, yielding coefficients of determination (r2) of 0.97 and 0.94 and model efficiencies (ME) of 0.96 and 0.93, respectively. A Chi-square test was performed to assess model accuracy with respect to changes in species composition. We found that 83% of species-growth trajectories based on measured basal area were adequately modelled with JABOWA-3 (P > 0.9). Model-prediction accuracy, however, was substantially reduced for those PSPs altered by some level of disturbance. In general, JABOWA-3 is much better at providing forest yield predictions, subject to the availability of suitable climatic and soil information.


1991 ◽  
Vol 20 (5) ◽  
pp. 325-331 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. R. HORSLEY ◽  
I. J. N. STERLING ◽  
W. E. WATERS ◽  
J. B. L. HOWELL

Nature ◽  
1931 ◽  
Vol 128 (3226) ◽  
pp. 378-378
Author(s):  
HAROLD J. E. PEAKE
Keyword(s):  

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